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HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN Table_Reportdate 2024 05 16 table_invest Table_NewTitle Table_Authors S0630521110001 S0630522020001 S0630517120001 table_stockTrend table_product 1.2024 5 2.600346 3.002493 4.002648 table_main 1 2016-2020 CAGR 8.23%2022-2024 2030 2023 8.94%2 2007-2016 CAGR 10.92%3500 GPCA GCC 2018 70.7%2028 67.3%COTC 3 2022 50%2024-2030 CAGR 7.60%2019-2023 6%VLEC COTC COTC COTC-28%-20%-13%-6%1%9%16%23-05 23-08 23-11 24-02:(0775)300 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 2/27 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.6 2.6 2.1.6 2.2.&.7 2.3.+.10 3.13 3.1.13 3.2.14 3.3.16 3.3.1.16 3.3.2.17 3.3.3.19 3.3.4.21 3.4.COTC.23 4.26 5.26 ZXEVzQqNmPqRrPtQtOsNoP7N8Q7NnPpPnPqMkPnNtOiNmNoRaQpPwOvPrNnQNZoNpN HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 3/27 1.5 2 2023.5 3 2010.5 4.6 5.6 6.7 7.7 8.7 9.7 10 NGL.8 11 2010-2050/.8 12.8 13.8 14.9 15 OPEC NGL.9 16.10 17.10 18/.11 19.11 20.12 21.13 22 2023.13 23.13 24/.13 25.14 26.14 27.15 28 GW.15 29 2022-2030.15 30/.17 31.18 32.19 33.20 34.20 35 Orbit.20 36/.22 37 2023/.22 38.23 39.23 40.24 41.25 42.25 1.6 2.9 3.9 4 2023.12 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 4/27 5.14 6.16 7/.16 8.18 9%.19 10.20 11.21 12.25 13.25 4pwFQEyYo6XpaqRgOYLM0ZKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MMoY0aRO2sP74yLKL7FX2Fp HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 5/27 1.1.1.75%FCC(HCC)CPP CTO MTO 1 2010 62.8%2023 40%38%2 2023 3 2010 Labor Praxis 40%38%LPG 14%8%17.3%62.8%LPG 13.8%6.1%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 6/27 1 技术路线 1.2.2021 1.75 2011-2021 CAGR 3.23%41.84%&22.41%18.06%15.37%2022 6000 40%HDPE LDPE LLDPE 64%10%/9%/9%EDC EB-HDPE LDPE LLDPE EO 4 5 2.2.1.2022 2.18/2021 5%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0510152020082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021&-64%10%9%9%6%2%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 7/27 2005 28.01%2022 39.78%2019-2022 CAGR 10.23%6 7 2.2.&NGPLs NGPLs LRG HGL HGL NGL NGL 8 9 ABB EIA EIA NGL 2010 874/2023 2620/CAGR 8.81%EIA 2025 0500010000150002000025000200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 8/27 10 NGL 11 2010-2050/EIA 2024 2 EIA 2016 2020 Bayport Polymers 2021 10 2016 2939 2020 4033 CAGR 8.23%2022-2024 440/2030 2023 8.94%12 13 0%10%20%30%40%50%0100020003000400050006000700080002000-012001-112003-092005-072007-052009-032011-012012-112014-092016-072018-052020-032022-012023-11 NGL/NGL-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%05001000150020002500300035004000450020082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0100020003000400050006000700020052007200920112013201520172019202120232025E2027E2029E-HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 9/27 2/ExxonMobil 2018 150 Chevron Phillips Chemical 2018 150 Total Petrochemicals&Refining USA 2018 100 Dow Chemical 2019 50 Lotte Chemical&Axiall Corporation 2019 100 Sasol 2019 150 Shintech 2020 50 Formosa Plastics Point Comfort 2020 150 Indorama Ventures Olefins 2020 44 Bayport Polymers 2021 100 3/ExxonMobil&SABIC 2022 1 180 Shell Chemical Appalachia 2022 11 160 TotalEnergies&Borealis 2022 7 100 The CP Chem&Qatar Petroleum 2020 2026 200 PTTGC America 150 Formosa Petrochemicals 2020 10 2022 9 120 Enterprise Products 2024 Q2 2027 200 2022 1893.8 53.20%2007-2016 2007 1331.44 2016 3382.71 CAGR 10.92%3500 2015 OPEC NGL 14 15 OPEC NGL 010002000300040005000-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%010002000300040005000600070002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023NGL/-HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 10/27 GPCA GCC GCC 2018 70.7%2028 67.3%GPCA GCC 2013 60%2018 30%GCC SABIC(COTC)16 GPCA 2.3.+2017 2019 2021 2691.75 7327.77 3924.95 Chemanalyst 2022 2350 54%17 ICIS 2022 2021 70%2022 1300/-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%22002300240025002600270028002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 11/27 2023H1 880/300/18/ICIS BCG 200 50 C3 C4 2024 1 19 BCG Analysis 465 121 1995/20230200400600800100012001400 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 12/27 21.3%360/11 45%20 Wood Mackenzie 2023 2024 4 10 SABIC 3 55 32.5 4 11 2024 42.5/29/4 2023 2024.4.11 42.5 3 SABIC Limburg BV 2024.4.11 55 2024.1 66 2.97/Angarsky Zavod Polymerov AO 2023.8.10 2023.7.2 13 11.46/2023.3.26 52 TotalEnergies 2023.1 58 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 13/27 3.3.1.2023 9779.90 2016-2023 CAGR 7.54%2023 5216.7 53.34%14.81%6.97%6.51%21 22 2023 2023 4715.75+11.08%80%2023 87.51%2022 44/90/74/73/23 24/1 2028 2024-2030 0200040006000800010000120002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 53.34%6.51%6.97%4.08%14.81%4.23%4.73%0%20%40%60%80%100%0100020003000400050002019 2020 2021 2022 2023-0102030405060708090100 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 14/27 CAGR 7.60%2024-2029 85%2=+-+2023 6800 2019-2023 6%6%3 2024-2029 25 26 5 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 5436 5742 5832 6093 6800 7208 7640 8099 8585 9100 9646 2400 3177 3654 4054 4519 5020 5997 6607 7356 7654 7722 3036 2565 2178 2039 2281 2188 1643 1492 1228 1446 1924 3.2.2021-POE 2025 80%1 EVTank 2022 133.2 65.3%100 104.8 28.4 2022 80%2 EVA 2023 499GW 73%EVA EVA 2023 EVA 245 330 0%5%10%15%20%25%010002000300040005000600070008000900010000-0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0100020003000400050006000700080002019 2020 2021 2022 2023-HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 15/27 40%EVA 3 POE-POE PID 2022 40.4%POE 27 28 GW EVTank CPIA 2022 4376.7 2030 9164.7 4788 44 13 1539 32.14%EVA POE 29 2022-2030 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%020406080100120140-01002003004005006007002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002022 2030 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 16/27 6 4.4/2024 12/6/2024 2/UHMWPE 2022 EVA 30/EVA 75/EVA POE 800/POE 2022 9 50/POE 30/-10 POE EVA 30/EVA 2021 12 28 70/EVA 2022 100/EVA 2024 POE 1000/-2023 2 20/POE 35/-2022 20/POE 30/-2024 POE 1000-10-POE 2025 5 10/-3 20/POE 2023，2024 3.3.3.3.1.100 150/209.8 198.6 12 SABIC 7/150/150 209.8 2018 2020 12 SABIC 150 420.7 2023 2027 14 150/150 380.8 2023 2026 18 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 17/27 120/120 300 2022 2024 11 Bharat Petroleum 120 120 52-61 2023 2028 65 LLDPE/HDPE 50 HDPE 65(PP)5-1 PRefChem PIC Petronas RAPID 120 70 2017 2019 60 18 40/90/35/LLDPE 170 110 2023 2027 Axiall and Lotte Chemical LACC 100 30 2016 2019 100 70 EG 3.3.2.2023 1865/5.3%2019 17.9%30/20%80%60%140014501500155016001650170017501800185019002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 18/27 31 57%()80/CO2 5.71t/t 10.5t/t 45.6%CO2 5.25t/t 50%8/98.3 80 40.45 t/a 40.28 t/a 370 150 35/FDPE+40/HDPE 35/+40/208.58 80 50/40/191.17 80 40 t/a 40 t/a 200 85 478.1 260 3 50/3 55/HT-L 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%石脑油蒸汽裂解 乙烷裂解 甲醇制烯烃 煤制烯烃固定成本 原材料 燃料及公用工程 其他 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 19/27 3.3.3.1 2024 1-3 MB 136/36.3/197.1/32 pancanal 2 77.73%33.62%9%8.82 2.27 1.57 1.56 0.94 0.78 6.27 27.43 22.12 17.20 11.19 8.75 77.73 42.01 40.00 33.62 25.92 20.49 2.76 16.82 17.27 15.53 16.15 14.07 1.81 3.01 3.50 4.56 4.56 5.38+1.81 3.01 3.50 4.56 4.56 5.38 0.87 2.47 3.02 6.74 6.03 3.73 0.12 0.53 0.83 3.34 2.90 2.90 C8-0.35 1.76 2.17 1.87 0.80 3.62 2.92 6.75 7.30 10.77-0.53 1.70 4.70 18.00 25.00 翯 3 134%153%CO2 01002003004005006007008009000204060801001203500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 9000/-/-/HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 20/27 CO2 33 翯 Marcus Hook Nederland Terminal Marcus Hook Nederland Terminal Energy Transfer ORBIT Mont belview 17.5/300/2019 Martin Terminal 34 35 Orbit EIA Nederland RBN Energy 10/Marcus Hook 2016.3 140(115)Borealis(25)050100150200250乙烷 丙烷 丁烷 轻石脑油 轻柴油 减压柴油相对投资 相对能耗 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 21/27 2016.9 410 Reliance(150)(100)Sabic(100)Braskem(20)(40)Nederland Terminal Nederland 2021.1-300 Martin Terminal 1000 RBN Energy VLEC VLEC 28 VLEC 14 VLEC 6 8 9.8 5.2/15 2023 7 18 SINOGAS-11 容量（CBM）SERI EVEREST 15 15 2020 98156 MISC SERI ERLANG 2021 98171 SERI EMEI 2021 98114 SERI EMORY 2021 98020 SERI EMPEROR 2021 98108 SERI ELBERT 2021 98171 GAS MAGNOLIA 15 5 2022 99000 GAS BLUEBONNET 2022 99000 STL YANGTZE 15 10 2022 98000 EPS STL HUANGPU 2022 98000 STL QIANJIANG 2022 98000 STL NANHU 2022 98000 STL HUANGHE-2022 98000 STL PEARL 2023 98000-6 15 17 2026/2027 99000 SINOGAS EPS SINOGAS MISC 3.3.4.2030 2023 7249.5/2030 80%8387/58%2030 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 22/27 2773/65%36/2020 4.0 2023 65/760/37 2023/05000100001500020000250003000035000 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 23/27 3.4.COTC Crude Oil to Chemicals COTC 2030-2035 80%C4s 38 Wood Mackenzie 5%10%10%20%40%80%40 70-80 7080 39 CNKI 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 24/27 1 DPC ExxonMobil Saudi Aramco LyondellBasell Shell Lummus 40 CNKI ExxonMobil Saudi Aramco COTC ExxonMobil 2014 1000 kt/a IHS 50/ExxonMobil 100/Saudi Aramco COTC 200 COTC 2025 COTC 2021 4 2 50%11 50%50%70%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 25/27 12%产能/2012.12 24 100 2025-160 2021.4.26 50-2021.11.17 50-COTC Saudi Aramco&SABIC 2025 40-50 300 TCTC-70 150 CCTC TechnipFMC-60-80-COTC-850 2 40%50%2019 33.6%35.7%50.9%41 42 13/%/2000/2019.5.17 2000 33.6 150 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 26/27 4000 2019.12.30 2000 35.7 140 4000 2022.1.13 2000 50.9 140 4.2029 COTC COTC 5.LPG LPG HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 27/27 6 300 20%6 300-20%20%6 300 20%6 300 10%6 300-10%10%6 300 10%6 300 15%6 300 5%15%6 300-5%5%6 300 5%15%6 300 15%1928 87 D 15F Http:/Http:/8621 20333275 18221959689 8610 59707105 18221959689 8621 50585608 8610 59707100 200125 100089
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