资源描述
|2024 05 05/-2021-2026 1.6 6.8 11%39%-2023-2026 0.8 2.1 5%12%23EPS 24EPS 24PE PB 002155.SZ 18.8 0.41 0.61 25.6 3.0-601020.SH 7.7 0.09 0.43 22.6 2.7-600301.SH 10.3 0.50 0.80 20.3 2.8-wind%227 4.5 3882.2 5.0 3593.3 5.2%1m 6m 12m 4.4-3.7-11.6 2.5-4.6-1.1 1 2024-04-14 2+2024-01-10 3 2024 2023-12-19 S1090519040002 S1090523060003-40-30-20-10010May/23 Aug/23 Dec/23 Apr/24(%)金属及材料 沪深300 2.5.7 1 24:1.7 2.8 3.10.13 1.13 2.14 3.18 4/.21 5-.22.23 1 2026 2.23 2.23.25 1.25 2.25 3.27.27.28 1.5 2 2023.7 3 2023.7 4 2023.7 5 2023.7 6 2023.8 7.8 0YCXvMnQtQnMrPmPmRpQpO7NdNaQsQmMsQmQiNmMsPeRqQrP8OpPvNwMsOnQMYrMqQ 3 8 2022.8 9.9 10.9 11 1990-2023.10 12.11 13 1900.13 14 2023.14 15 2023.14 16.14 17.14 18.15 19 2021.15 20 2021.17 21 5G.17 22.18 23.19 24.19 25.20 26.20 27/.20 28.21 29 Phlux 400.22 30.22 31 Ambri.22 32-.22 33/.24 34.25 35.25 36 16-23.26 37 16-23.26 38 PEBand.28 39 PBBand.28 4 1.5 2.9 3.11 4.12 5.15 6.16 7.17 8.18 9.19 10.19 11.20 12.21 13.23 14.25 15.26 16.26 17.27 18.27 19.27 djzlmgBOhAtewGSe0oMv9JKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MMZ4IrLtrJRqg/6jRvidBFE 5 Antimony Sb 51 VA 0.2-0.4*10-6 Sb2S3 1 2010 14 2016 2016-2020 2018 USGS 35 1 50 6 30 24 7 1 24:1 2023 217 64 30%35 16%14%12%CR3 80%2023 8.3 4 48%25%7%2 2023 3 2023 USGS USGS 4 2023 5 2023 USGS USGS 24:1 2023 24 433 200 23 2176435312614 14102305010015020025030%16%14%12%6%6%5%11%中国 俄罗斯 玻利维亚 吉尔吉斯斯坦缅甸 澳大利亚 土耳其 其他8.3 4.0 2.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0全球 中国 塔吉克斯坦 土耳其 缅甸 俄罗斯 其他48%25%7%6%5%9%中国 塔吉克斯坦 土耳其 缅甸 俄罗斯 其他 8 6 2023 USGS 2022 67 23%22%20%65%9%8%6%1541 1897 7 8 2022 2 USGS 2008 18 2022 4 78%19.7 8.3 58%1.7 4.3 31415656483624 2315050100150200250300350稀土 锂 钨 钴 镍 锑 银 锡01020304050607080全国 广西 湖南 甘肃 云南 西藏 江西 内蒙古 贵州 其他2020 2021 202223%22%20%9%8%6%4%3%5%广西 湖南 甘肃 云南 西藏 江西 内蒙古 贵州 其他 9 9 10 USGS USGS 2009-2013 2014 2 1991 1 2009 5 2009 3 2009 2009 11 2010 3 2010 2012 1 2013 9 2013 2014 6 2014 2018 2 2018 6 2019 7 2020 11 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%050100150200250全球 中国 中国占比0.05.010.015.020.025.0全球 中国 塔吉克斯坦 俄罗斯 10 2021 5 2022 3 2022 11 24%30%80-90 1990 2.04 2023 0.4 0.4 15%11 1990-2023 USGS 3 50%1.6 2022 7 2023 469 2000 Solonechenskoye 2022 6000 2026 6.74 14.3 0500010000150002000025000 11 2021-2023 0.25 0.44 2.7 2022 3 240961 15000 152600 17584 22407 18065 90000 3000 80000 2000 58706-157613-17380-40000 3000 30000-264600 16000 2022 7 COMSAP 50000 10000 Geo Pro Mining 180000 7200 Polyus Gold 120000 10958 FFA Solonechenskoye 61000 6000 200000-39000-17800 5000 Calidus 5200-75000 4500 78000 6000 2022 310000 2350 28500-Midas Gold 67443-2026 12 7.5%2026 15.3 2023-2026 2.2%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.00500010000150002000025000300002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023锑 金（右）12 4 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 2.0 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 9.9 10.6 11.4 11.9 12.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.0 13.6 14.4 14.8 15.0 15.3 USGS 13 1 1 1900-1946 2 1947-1983 3 1984-2017 4 2018 13 1900 USGS 2023 46%24%14%11%2023 35%43%22%14 14 2023 15 2023 USGS 2 2020 290.4 2027 359 3.08%80%10%5%3%2%16 17 85%46%24%14%11%5%阻燃剂 光伏玻璃澄清剂 铅酸电池 聚酯催化 其它43%35%22%铅酸电池及军工 阻燃剂 玻璃陶瓷及其他290.43590501001502002503003504002020 202780%10%5%3%2%塑料 橡胶 纺织品 涂料 纸张、木材及其他 15 18 31%18%14%5%19 2021-5 31.0%18.0%14.0%5.0%32.0%氢氧化铝 磷氮系 溴系 锑系 其他 16 RoHS REACH 2007 6 ECHA DBDPO HBCD 噁 ROHS REACH 6 2001 5 2006 RoHS 2007 REACH SVHC XVII(2-)(2,3-)-()2019 ErP 2021 3 1 2022 3(RAC)(Dechlorane Plus)EPA(2-)(TCEP)(1,3-)(TDCPP)(SCCP)(HBCDD)2-(TBB)A(TBBPA)(2-)(TBPH)ECHA EPA 42%22%16%17 20 2021 5G-/2022 5G 231.2 5G 88.7 21.3%7pct 5G 2023 90 5G 2024 200 5G 5G PCB 21 5G-PBT PA66 PET MVQ PVC PHBV/PBAT 7 PBT PET PA6/PA66 PE 42%22%16%11%6%3%电子电气 家用电器 电器设备 建筑 汽车 其他0501001502002503002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E5G宏基站 5G小基站 4G宏基站 18 PBT PP/MVQ LDPE Al(OH)3 PVC ABS PHBV/PBAT/ABS 2022 7.3 2026 5.9 8 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 305 313 322 332 342 352 9.2 8.8 8.4 8.0 7.5 7.0 7.6 7.3 7.0 6.7 6.3 5.9 3 22 0.2%-0.3%19 9 SiO 2 Na 2O CaO MgO Al 2O 3 Fe 2O 3 K 2O SO 3 Sb 2O 3 72.00%13.10%7.95%4.45%1.55%0.10%0.50%0.22%-72.00%13.10%7.95%4.45%1.55%0.02%0.05%0.22%-72.00%13.80%8.30%4.00%1.20%0.01%-0.25%0.20%41%40.5%35.8%9.9%5%14%19%1%23 24 10 24 4/W%/W%0.35 44.88%0.35 44.12%0.11 13.89%0.15 18.86%0.03 3.47%EVA 0.06 7.85%0.06 7.70%0.10 12.94%0.10 12.68%0.05 6.01%0.05 5.89%0.03 3.32%0.03 3.25%0.00 0.42%0.00 0.42%0.00 0.61%0.00 0.60%0.01 1.09%0.01 1.07%0.01 0.80%0.01 0.78%0.04 4.72%0.04 4.62%0.78 0.80 SOLARZOOM CPIA 2023 390GW+69.6%2024-2026 500/615/738GW 41%41%4%14%原材料 燃料 人工费用 制造费用石英砂,40.5%氢氧化铝,3.5%石灰石,2.9%白云石,7.1%重碱,35.8%芒硝,0.3%焦锑酸钠,9.9%石英砂 氢氧化铝 石灰石 白云石 重碱 芒硝 焦锑酸钠 20 25 CPIA CPIA 2021-2023 37.45%40.47%67.00%/26 27/OFweek CPIA 0.25%2021-2026 1.6 6.8 34%11 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E GW 170 230 390 500 615 738 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 63%60%33%30%30%30%37%40%67%70%70%70%3.2mm 68%59.3%33%30%30%30%2.5mm 32%0.7%2%0%0%0%2.0mm 0%39.7%66%70%70%70%3.2mm/GW 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 2.5mm/GW 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 2.0mm/GW 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 1273 1604 2887 3709 4562 5475 0.25%0.25%0.25%0.25%0.25%0.25%3.2 4.0 7.2 9.3 11.4 13.7 0501001502002503003504004502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023全球光伏新增装机量(GW)中国光伏新增装机量(GW)10.0%14.0%29.7%37.4%40.4%67.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023双面组件占比 21 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 1.6 2.0 3.6 4.6 5.6 6.8 CPIA A 4/70%12 2017-2022 28 III-V InGaAsSb AlGaAsSb 1.7 4.5 Phlux Technology 10 50%2022 12 Octopus Ventures 400 2077920264 202492273621650 2185605000100001500020000250002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 22 29 Phlux 400 30 Phlux Technology Phlux Technology 5-Ambri-30%-50%2023 7 Ambri Xcel Energy 2024 300kWh 31 Ambri 32-Ambri Ambri 23 1 2026 2 2023-2026 0.8 2.1 2023 24%2026 39%5%12%13 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 2.0 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 9.9 10.6 11.4 11.9 12.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.0 13.6 14.4 14.8 15.0 15.3 7.3 7.0 6.7 6.3 5.9 2.0 3.6 4.6 5.6 6.8 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 13.8 15.1 15.9 16.6 17.4-0.2-0.8-1.1-1.6-2.1-1.4%-5.2%-7.1%-9.5%-12.0%Wind CPIA 2 2008 2009-2011 2010 11/2011-2016 2016-2017 2018 7 2020 2024 4 26 9.8/24 12%33/wind 25 1 2023 233 10.8%4.9+11.8%90.6%/8.5%53.1%/45.9%34 35 6800 142 30.7 9.96 100/2.5/4/3000/2023 3.95-14.4%1.75-5.77%552-65.6%14 141.76 30.73 99568 3.95 1.75 552 2 2002 2016 2023 8.7+54.4%0.74-49.9%1.6 5,000/5,000/0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.02014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023黄金 锑 钨 其他0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.02014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023黄金 锑 钨 其他 26 36 16-23 37 16-23 3 1 1 2024 4 3 2023 87 139 47 2316 117 1.5 15 100%37.9 81.1 12.7 1533-100%0.4 0.8 0.1 10-100%20.0 17.0 8.0 605-100%-0.7-4-0.3 100%5.0 1.9-97-1.2 60%24.0 37.0-67-40%-59-50%-26.4-48-Da Tambuk Mato Bula 70%-9-87.3 139 47.2 2316 117 1.5 77.7 123.7 34.0 2289 54 1.5 2023 1.5 1.6 0.25 59 1.0 0.0 1.5 1.6 0.23 59 0.5 0.0 2.1 2017 50%47 2.2 1.6 2023 2288 469 2.1 16 100%12.7 0.3 100%8.0 0.2 50%26.4 1.6 100%0.1 47.2 2.1 0.05.010.015.020.025.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023铅锑精矿 国外自产金 锌精矿国外自产锑 国外自产金锭 其他(1.0)0.01.02.03.04.05.06.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023铅锑精矿 国外自产金 锌精矿国外自产锑 国外自产金锭 其他 27 34.0 1.3 3 2023 2 1 2023 6 6 100%1952 1995 2000 6 2008 2023 23.8/211/21.4/20.9 17 100%6.4 143.6 1.5 3.2-53.25%17.4 67.4 19.9 17.7 801.1 23.8 211.0 21.4 20.9 801.1 15.7 179.5 12.1 12.6 426.6 18 2023 2024E 2025E 2023PE 2024PE 2025PE PB 188 4.9 7.3 9.2 40 27 21 3.1 77 0.7 3.7 5.2 110 21 15 2.5 103 3.1 4.9 5.3 25 22 21 3.0 wind wind 19/2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E/2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 188 30.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 6.1 101 107 104 104 104 77 34.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.2 2.3 337 341 128 77 64 103 12.6-0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 8.2-222 162 162 162 wind 28 1 2 3 4 38 PEBand 39 PBBand 10 x15x20 x25x050010001500200025003000Apr/22 Oct/22 Apr/23 Oct/231.3x1.9x2.5x3.1x3.8x050010001500200025003000Apr/22 Oct/22 Apr/23 Oct/23 29 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%
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