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AI 2024 S0790522070002 珣 S0790122030106 S0790523110001 S0790123100019 S0790123120028 2024 5 7 1.2024 AI 1 PC AI AI PC 2024 AI 2 2023 3 2.1 PC IDC 2024 PC 5%AI AI PC 2 CIS 3 AI AIPC VR 3.AI AI PCB AI SoC AI AI AI AI SoC ODM PCB PCIe Switch 4.1 2024 2 SEMI 2024 13%860/2024 IDM 5.下游需求复苏不及预期 YWCXyRtOnOpOoQnOsPrOoP7NdN9PtRrRmOtPlOrRmRjMpPvNbRrRvNxNoNtQMYsRqP1 23目 录C O N TEN TS 5AI AI PCB AI SoC 6 4先 进封装 重要性持 续提升，本土晶 圆厂扩 产及设备 国产化 率提升带 来投资 机会dp+O4NZbfc69FN/bvLd53ZKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MMr1rb1+p2O5KZ8uXK4gyWZ 1.1 2024 Wind 2024/1/1 2024/4/25 1 2024 2024 15.9%14.4%11.7%-14.9%15.9%14.4%11.7%11.4%9.6%6.5%6.3%2.9%2.4%1.7%0.4%-2.1%-2.6%-4.5%-5.3%-5.6%-6.4%-6.7%-7.7%-8.4%-8.4%-8.5%-9.3%-10.2%-10.4%-10.7%-13.4%-13.6%-14.9%-17.9%-20.3%-20.3%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%1.2 2024-7.3%7.7 2024-7.3%-11.8%-13.6%2 2024-7.27%7.65 Wind 2024/1/1 2024/4/25 2.9%-7.3%-11.8%-13.6%-14.9%-17.2%-17.6%-21.2%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%1.2 2024 10.5 2024 10.5 2024-4.4%-4.9%-6.3%3 2024-4.41%10.50 Wind 2024/1/1 2024/4/25 2.9%-4.4%-4.9%-6.3%-12.9%-12.9%-13.7%-14.3%-14.9%-17.2%-17.6%-18.8%-18.9%-21.2%-21.3%-21.4%-23.0%-31.1%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%2 AI AIPC CIS PCVRVR Pancake OLED 4 1.PC IDC 2024 PC 5%AI AI PC 2.CIS 3.AI AIPC VR Pancake OLED 2.1 23Q3 24 3%IDC IDC 2023Q3 0.2%2021Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1 7.8%7.7%IDC 2023 11.7 YoY-3.4%2022 Counterpoint 2024 3%6 2023 3.4%7 2024 3%Counterpoint-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600()YoY-6%-3%1%-1%-12%-17%-1%1%25%13%-6%-2%-9%-8%-9%-18%-15%-7%0.2%7.8%7.7%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.0 YoY IDC 5 2023Q3 2.1 IDC IDC 2023 PC 2.4 YoY-15.5%2022 2024Q1 PC 5980 YoY+1.5%2022 8 2023 PC 15.5%9 24Q1 PC 1.5%IDC PC 23 24Q1-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.02000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 YoY-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1 碁 YoY2.2 CIS 2023 Mate60 CIS 50MP CIS CIS 1 2.2.1 1 5-7 45 2 89%-92%99%17.2533.3114.573.35 3.522.710102030402019 2020 2021/10 12 ZEALER 2.2.2 50MP CIS 50MP CIS TechInsights 48M-100MP CIS 2020 10%2023 20%48MP-100MP 48MP 50MP 50MP 50MP CIS 50M 50MP 13 48MP-100MP CIS TechInsights OV50H OV50E OV50A OV50D SC580XS SC550XS SC520XS SC5000SC GC50E0 GC50B2 2 CIS 50MP 2.2.3 Trendforce 2023 1590 YoY+25%2024 1770 YoY+11%IDC 2023 701 YoY+114.5%4 100%1.2.1.2.CPI UTG 100-200 IDC 14 2023 114.5%15 2999 16 2.3 AI AIPC VR AI AIPC AI AI PC AI AI AIPC PC VR VR 2D 2D 3D 0 AI AIPC VR Pancake 3 2.3.1 AI AI AI Gartner 2024 AI 2.4 22%2023 1%2024 1 18 AI Galaxy S24 28 100 AI 18 Galaxy S24 AI 36 Techweb 17 AI 2024 22%2.3.2 AIPC PC AIPC Canalys 2024 AI PC 4800 PC 18%Canalys 2025 1 40%2028 2.05 70%2024 4 18 AI PC AI AI AI PPT AI Canalys 19 AIPC 2024 18%2028 70%20 AIPC AI 2.3.3 VR pancake VR VR 2D 2D 3D 2023 VR 753-24%Meta Pico 2024 VR 800 6.2%IDC Meta 2023 2023Q4 60%2023Q1 Pico 21 2024 VR 6.2%Wellsenn XR 22 Meta XR IDC2.3.3 VR Pancake VR Fast-LCD OLED Vision Pro OLED 700 Pancake VR 20 VR VR 10-20 Pancake 23 Vision Pro OLED 48%700 Wellsenn XR 24 Pancake Wellsenn XR 25 VR Wellsenn XR289 25%13%-6%-6%-9%-9%-9%-17%-14%-7%0%9%7.7%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%050100150200250300350400 yoy3.1+AI 2024Q1 IDC 2024Q1 2.89 7.7%2021Q3 AI Counterpoint 2024 AI 11%2027 43%5.5 AI Frost&Sullivan 2021 4.7 35%2025 90%Counterpoint Research 28 Counterpoint Research 27 26 2024Q1 IDC Wind 3.2-Strategyanalytics 2019 20%2025 45%2023M5 80W 50W 2024M9 29 50W 80W 15 1527 27 274050 50 5001020304050607080Mate 20ProMate P30ProMate 30 Mate 30ProP40 Pro Mate 40 Mate 40ProMate 50 Mate 60 2023M5 80W 2024M9 50W P70 Ultra P70 Pro+P70 Pro P70 5200mAh100W 80W 5050mAh100W 80W 5050mAh100W 80W 4900mAh66W 50W 4 P70 80W AI PCB AI SoC 4 AI PCB CCL Digitimes Research AI AI 2023 AI 118+38.4%8%2026 14%2022-2026 AI CAGR 22%30 2023-2028 CAGR 6%31 AI 2022-2026 CAGR 22%TrendForce 1812.21408.21553.21658.81730.11865.11975.16.5%-18.3%4.9%6.8%4.3%7.8%5.9%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%050010001500200025002022 2023(f)2024(f)2025(f)2026(f)2027(f)2028(f)()YoY85.5118.3150.4189.5236.98.5%38.4%27.1%26.0%25.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%0501001502002502022 2023E 2024F 2025F 2026F AI YOY4.1 AI AI Counterpoint AI AI AI Counterpoint 2024+15.1%2023 36%IT 32 2024+15.1%33 2023 AI Counterpoint4.1 AI PCB AI PCB AI PCB GPU CPU NVIDIA DGX A100 PCB 5.6 94%GPU GPUNVIDIA DGX A100 8 GPU AI PCB NVIDIA DGX H100 PCB DGX A100 0.3%ASP 44.2%DGX H100 PCB A100 45%34 AI PCB GPU CPU AI ABF AI Chiplet ABF AI ABF Prismark 2020-2027 CAGR 11.8%PCB 35 Prismark 36 2020-2027 CAGR 11.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%40%-50%70%-80%4.266 677681102144174161223-4.35%1.52%13.43%6.58%25.93%41.18%20.83%-7.47%38.51%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0501001502002502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023F 2027F YoY4.3 AI+AI SoC Soc 2023 2023Q3+SoC TWS RK3588M AI 85.63110.28182.16175.90191.7727%29%65%-3%9%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0501001502002502019 2020 2021 2022 2023SoC YoY 37 2023 SoC 191.77 38 2024Q1SoC 50.41+43%Wind SoC-U Wind SoC-U 35.3746.9648.0351.8044.0450.7741.6839.4135.1747.5153.7555.3450.41163%163%65%49%25%8%-13%-24%-20%-6%29%40%43%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0102030405060SoC YoY4.4SOC 2024Q1 2023Q1 280 2024Q1 19.7021.1548.7973.9366.775%7%131%52%-10%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%010203040506070802019 2020 2021 2022 2023SoC YoY 39 2023 SoC-10%40 2024Q1 176 Wind SoC-U Wind SoC-U 15.9032.4337.0848.7956.6560.3168.8873.9370.7867.9271.4266.77 66.4470 75 109 121 177 165 215 253 280 195 177 169 176 05010015020025030001020304050607080SoC SoC 4.5 ChatGPT/ChatGPT AI API AI 5 AI AI IT AI AI Echo Alexa Alexa 2023 AI 2023 4 AIGC TTS 2023 9 Xiaomi Sound/Sound Pro/2023 9 2023 2 4.5 AI SoC 2 9 4 11 AI 8 15 ChatGPT+Vifa ChatMini 8 17 AI Sound9 19 9 3 Sound Pro AI 41 AI AIoT SoC 2023 2 9 2023 8 17 Vifa ChatGPT AI 2023 9 19 AI IT Vifa AI 4.6 TWS AI+AI ChatGPT AI AI 2023 5 24 iFLYBUDS Nano AI TWS VIAIM AI 42 43 iFLYBUDS Nano VIAIM AI 4.7 AI+AI SoC AI SoC Canalys 2024 10%17%2023 2-3 AIoT 950.021178.741462.531814.642251.522793.590500100015002000250030002022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E AIoT SoC 44 2027 AIoT SoC 2793.59 2022-2027 CAGR 24.08%5.1 Wind 2024 2024 2024M3 204.33 YoY+8.5%MoM+11.1%2024M3 456.61 YoY-0.3%MoM+14.9%2024+7%+10%2024 45 2024M3 46 2024M3 Wind-40%-20%0%20%40%01002003002020M12020M52020M92021M12021M52021M92022M12022M52022M92023M12023M52023M92024M1 YoYMoM-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%01002003004005006007002020M12020M52020M92021M12021M52021M92022M12022M52022M92023M12023M52023M92024M1 YoY MoM5.1 2023 2024Q1 47 2024Q1 48 2024Q1 Wind 2023 2023 695.15-4.76%21.28-59.44%+45.69%2023Q4 206.55+7.32%+9.2%9.85+12.37%+46.94%2024Q1 2024Q1 169.37+21.22%-18%3.1+2267.39%-68.54%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%050100150200250 YoY QoQ-100%100%300%500%700%900%1100%1300%0510152025 YoY QoQ5.1 18 10nm Trendforce B GB200 B100 B200 CoWoS CoWoS 2024 4/+150%2025 Yole 49 50 H100 CoWos Yole NVIDIA5.1 2.5/3D 51 2028 786 Yole 52 2022-2028 2.5D/3D CAGR 18.7%Yole 2028 55%Yole 2022 443 46.6%2028 786 54.8%2022-2028 CAGR 10%2.5/3D 2022-2028 CAGR 18%Yole 2022 92 20.79%2028 257.7 32.81%2022-2028 CAGR 18.7%01002003004005006007008009002022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028EED SIP Flip-Chip 2.5/3D WLCSP Fan-Out7.5%6.2%20.5%14.2%9.9%5.6%10.9%9.6%13.2%13.0%8.0%0%5%10%15%20%25%02004006008001000 YoY5.1 6 2024 4 23 Wind Wind 2024 4 23 2024Q1 2024(PE2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E600584.SH 430 23.5214.71 28.72 39.47 46.85 29.27 14.99 10.91 9.19002156.SZ 290 18.921.69 9.77 12.59 16.39 171.25 29.70 23.05 17.70002185.SZ 7.282.26 6.64 10.30 15.37 103.64 35.33 22.77 15.267.28688362.SH 75 18.191.38 1.32 2.55 4.01 53.98 56.40 29.27 18.57603005.SH 105 16.172.28 1.90 3.14 4.23 45.94 55.02 33.34 24.735.2 2023 34.5%54 2024+4.37%SEMI 2023 SEMI 2023-1.3%1063 72%2024 2025 1240 SEMI 2023 12 11 2024+4%1053 2025+18%1241-20%0%20%40%60%0500100015002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E/YOY 53 2023-1.3%1.2022 2023 2023 282.7 366 34.45%29%215.1 199.4 18.77%-7%268.2 196.2 18.47%-27%104.6 120.5 11.34%15%83.5 79.3 7.46%-5%62.8 64.6 6.08%3%59.5 36.5 3.44%-39%1076.4 1062.5-1%SEMI 5.2 55 2024 13%/SEMI 2024 3000 SEMI 2023 2960/200mm+5.3%2024 6.4%3000/2024 18 2023 12%760/2024 13%860/300mm 300 SEMI 300mm 2024-2027 300 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%02004006008001000 2023 2024E YoY5.3 2024 Capex 7 2024 IC insights 2024 Capex IC insights 2024 2024 2023 2022 2023 2024E 2023 2024 662 526 546-20.5%3.8%371 370 372-0.3%0.5%120 70 78-41.7%11.4%SK 147 64 75-56.5%17.2%25 22 21-12.0%-4.5%509 480 451-5.7%-6.0%363 320 300-11.8%-6.3%64 75 76 17.2%1.3%27 30 33 11.1%10.0%31 18 7-41.9%-61.1%25 37 37 48.0%0.0%IDM 336 382 369 13.7%-3.4%248 258 262 4.0%1.6%28 51 50 82.1%-2.0%35 41 25 17.1%-39.0%24 32 32 33.3%0.0%309 302 284-2.3%-6.0%1820 1690 1650-7.1%-2.4%5.3 ASML 2024Q1 49%FY 2024Q1 70 YoY-30 QoQ-54 EUV 11-6 QoQ-2 ArFi DUV 20 YoY-5 QoQ-9 KrF 25 YoY-18 QoQ-29 2024Q1 19.43+355%/-12%49%+41pcts/+10pcts ASML 2024 56 FY2024Q1 ASML ASML 57 FY2024Q1 ASML 49%ASML 0%20%40%60%80%100%FY2021Q1FY2021Q2FY2021Q3FY2021Q4FY2022Q1FY2022Q2FY2022Q3FY2022Q4FY2023Q1FY2023Q2FY2023Q3FY2023Q4FY2024Q1 7 91511312 12 131712 11 13 11241621201821 20222539 32 29204765686876 9 10435313035263838494343 445425697 119121014813 161810020406080100120140EUV Arfi Arf Dry KrF l-line5.3 ASML 2024Q1 20%ASML 2024Q1 36.11-3.76%-60.69%EUV 6.56-59%-88.29%DUV 29.55+37.31%-17.6%2024Q1 21.3+170%59%14.81-50%41%2024Q1 20%58 ASML FY2024Q1+37%ASML 020406080100EUV DUV 020406080100FY2021Q1FY2021Q2FY2021Q3FY2021Q4FY2022Q1FY2022Q2FY2022Q3FY2022Q4FY2023Q1FY2023Q2FY2023Q3FY2023Q4FY2024Q1 ASML 59 ASML FY2024Q1 59%5.3 2024Q1 Wind 60 2023Q3+17.73%8 2023Q3 2024Q1 2024Q1 183.4 YoY+8.89%/QoQ+11.73%+145.13%/+91.71%/+78.77%+105.9%/+51.51%/+18.64%2024-20%0%20%40%60%80%050100150200 YoY QoQ YoY QoQ 23.23 145.13%18.64%4.15 91.71%6.64%5.42 78.77%18.03%0.06 38.39%-47.06%92.51 18.26%11.23%9.36-0.84%6.85%12.26-8.11%-7.70%-U 4.78-12.19%8.68%13.86-15.10%0.35%4.14-20.30%10.27%1.61-22.23%105.90%0.32-26.92%15.12%11.69-49.62%51.51%0.00-80.26%-64.40%5.3 2023 2023 300 69.5+60%2024 2023 300 IC 70%2023 83.6+32.3%69.5+60.1%MOCVD 2023-72.2%2023 64 Demo 2023 9 27 65.26+41.01%2.7 YoY+1554.55%67.96+46.33%2023 64.69 2.96 3.29 2023 132.93 5-15 86.61 2023 10 26 32.07 14.89 2023 3.7 9 2023 5.4 1/SoC AI SoC-U 2 3&OSAT 2.5D 3D 2024 4&CIS MR/AR CIS 5 6 5.4 Wind Wind 2024/05/07 10 2024（E）EPS 2025（E）EPS 2026（E）EPS 2024（E）PE 2025（E）PE 2026（E）PE 688256.SH 20240507-U 160.40-1.33-0.57 0.19-120.46-283.69 822.99 603893.SH 20240507 57.73 0.32 0.91 1.35 180.41 63.44 42.76 688099.SH 20240507 57.66 1.19 1.57 1.92 48.45 36.73 30.03 300458.SZ 20240507 20.21 0.27 0.52 0.70 76.03 39.00 28.79 603986.SH 20240507 84.03 1.66 2.44 3.06 50.47 34.48 27.48 688332.SH 20240507 57.55 2.82 3.81 4.73 20.38 15.09 12.16 301308.SZ 20240507 95.21 2.77 3.16 4.31 34.35 30.15 22.08 688110.SH 20240507 24.52 0.24 0.52 0.65 103.07 47.47 37.96 688766.SH 20240507 117.34 1.89 3.27 4.44 62.12 35.94 26.40 300475.SZ 20240507 36.37 0.92 1.16 1.63 39.34 31.46 22.36&688072.SH 20240507 181.86 4.37 5.98 7.52 41.62 30.41 24.18 688120.SH 20240507 176.61 6.34 8.26 10.73 27.86 21.38 16.46 002371.SZ 20240507 317.10 10.95 14.90 18.75 28.96 21.28 16.91 688012.SH 20240507 140.42 3.37 4.47 5.85 41.67 31.41 24.00 688037.SH 20240507 91.11 1.88 2.98 4.20 48.46 30.57 21.69 300567.SZ 20240507 61.35 0.98 1.39 1.83 62.58 44.06 33.46 688147.SH 20240507 32.29 1.23 1.73 2.19 26.19 18.70 14.73 688082.SH 20240507 79.55 2.63 3.39 4.26 30.30 23.45 18.66 600641.SH 20240507 13.14 0.20 0.25 0.32 66.46 52.31 40.52 300604.SZ 20240507 29.26 0.79 1.24 1.51 36.82 23.67 19.40 688200.SH 20240507 106.18 2.47 3.13 3.94 42.93 33.96 26.96 5.4 Wind Wind 2024/05/07 10 2024（E）EPS 2025（E）EPS 2026（E）EPS 2024（E）PE 2025（E）PE 2026（E）PE 688106.SH 20240507 19.44 0.83 1.03 1.28 23.46 18.83 15.19 002409.SZ 20240507 61.32 2.08 2.78 3.67 29.54 22.07 16.72 688019.SH 20240507 166.32 4.95 6.38 7.87 33.63 26.08 21.14 688126.SH 20240507 13.61 0.09 0.13 0.16 149.23 105.42 86.25 605358.SH 20240507 22.35 0.38 0.71 0.90 58.68 31.47 24.80&CIS300782.SZ 20240507 91.02 2.63 3.32 3.87 34.55 27.40 23.54 688153.SH 20240507 51.25 0.90 1.38 1.64 57.01 37.13 31.31 603501.SH 20240507 103.94 2.38 3.46 4.64 43.69 30.05 22.42 688536.SH 20240507 92.68 1.40 2.66 3.98 66.29 34.85 23.31 688798.SH 20240507 59.60 0.61 1.36 2.04 97.23 43.70 29.17 688381.SH 20240507 19.58 0.32 0.48 0.64 60.58 40.81 30.77 688508.SH 20240507 34.38 0.97 1.39 1.69 35.60 24.75 20.30 688052.SH 20240507 99.85-0.38 1.27 1.75-263.46 78.58 56.90 688368.SH 20240507 74.09 1.58 3.37 3.87 47.04 21.96 19.12 603290.SH 20240507 133.30 6.45 7.93 9.61 20.66 16.82 13.88 688187.SH 20240507 48.93 2.56 2.97 3.40 19.09 16.48 14.38 688261.SH 20240507 52.16 2.16 2.62 3.13 24.09 19.89 16.68 688711.SH 20240507 24.96 1.02 1.51 1.68 24.45 16.56 14.89 688396.SH 20240507 37.45 1.05 1.26 1.47 35.53 29.62 25.43 600460.SH 20240507 19.79 0.19 0.34 0.51 105.60 58.76 39.00 605111.SH 20240507 38.77 1.36 1.72 2.12 28.58 22.60 18.32 300373.SZ 20240507 37.84 1.91 2.45 2.99 19.76 15.44 12.64 300623.SZ 20240507 16.61 0.46 0.63 0.87 36.47 26.31 19.06 6.1（1）国 际政策影响自2019 年以来，海 外 对 中 国 半 导 体 行 业 的 限 制 政 策 持 续 升 级,如 果 国 际 政 策 进 一 步 限 制 国 内 先 进 制 程 发 展，将 对 国 内 半 导 体 产 业链造成一定影响。（2）市 场竞争加剧在全 球半 导体 行 业竞 争 日益 加剧 的大 潮 下，国 内外 半导 体 企业 纷 纷在 扩大 产能。如果 出 现供 需失 衡情 况，将对 国内 半导 体产 业链各环节企业盈利能力造成一定影响。（3）下 游需求复苏不及预期受到整体经济环境以及海外通货膨胀影响，如果 半导体下游需求复苏不及预期，相关产业链公司业绩将面临一定压力。（4）国 产替代不及预期如果 国外 芯片 或 设备 价 格下 降超 预期，且 国内 产品在产品 性能、价格 等方 面和 国 外竞 争 对手 相比 没有 显 著优 势，相 关产 业链 公司国产替代进程将放缓。612 A 300 500 buy 20%outperform 5%20%Neutral 5%5%underperform 5%overweight Neutral underperform 2017 7 1 R4 C4 C5 C4 C5 1788 1 10 18 C2 9 2030 1 45 1 B 5
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