资源描述
2024/5/261 1 1 2 3 2 1 2 24 3 MiniLED 4 2WUAZvMrMsRnMrPsRqNrOpObR8Q6MtRrRtRnRiNoOqNiNoMwO8OnNyQwMnOsRwMsQoO324H1 4faPgavzX/cqZ/40MX+dMRZKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MPvmRjXmU1HAdsR9goWcsga 5 1Q24 24/5/16 2024/300+21.2%/+6.1%2024+21.2%wind 2024/5/166 24 2024 1-4 28.0%17.4%4.2%2.7%2024 1Q24 1Q24 wind 2021-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%3007 2021 2023 23+17.2%23-20.9%23-8.2%24 Q1-28.7%/-23.4%/-21.9%5 4 30 4 30 1 5 9 5 17 wind wind-100-500501001502021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-02:-500501001502021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-02:8 1Q24 24 1Q24/+17.0%/+8.3%/+0.3%/+2.9%23+14%1Q24+17%23+6%1Q24+8%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%020004000600080001000012000%23+3%1Q24 23+6%1Q24+3%-10%-5%0%5%10%0100020003000400050006000%-10%-5%0%5%10%010002000300040005000%1383-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%05001000150020002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q24%9 1Q24 GMV 1 23 1Q24 2 2Q23 1Q24 3 4 1Q24+&+5 1Q24 Q1 GMV lab 10 lab 11/2022 Walmart Amazon Home Depot Target Best Buy Costco 2023-3.0%-3.2%-15.6%-11.8%-2.7%-8.8%+6.3%/wind wind 01002003004001992-011994-011996-011998-012000-012002-012004-012006-012008-012010-012012-012014-012016-012018-012020-012022-012024-010100200300400500600700Walmart Amazon Homedepot Target BestBuy L o w e s Costco12 23 1H24 2023/7084/4299/3803+7.8%/+27.4%/+37.0%1Q24 1Q24/+21.8%/+31.2%/+30.4%1Q24+22%1Q24+31%+30%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0100020003000400050006000700080002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q24%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%05001000150020002500300035004000450050002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q24%13 2022 2023 23M3 2022 2021 2022 855.0 13.3%2023 2023+9.9%3 2024 Q1+24.3%23M3 wind(%)21Q1 116.0%28.6%82.8%47.3%73.8%43.0%113.3%141.5%212.4%76.6%118.6%60.6%74.7%117.0%55.6%104.8%84.9%27.2%33.1%21Q2 54.5%9.3%33.0%24.3%33.4%6.7%47.6%64.4%52.3%28.3%55.1%17.3%37.4%50.4%17.8%40.2%42.5%13.5%12.1%21Q3 32.6%7.7%5.7%-5.0%17.2%4.3%14.1%19.4%-15.0%14.6%13.8%17.4%19.0%17.2%12.5%-4.1%19.1%11.3%1.2%21Q4 25.8%29.7%1.7%11.3%23.3%-1.6%4.7%-5.2%-45.3%3.8%1.2%12.5%38.4%6.7%1.6%-13.7%23.7%14.2%14.0%22Q1-5.4%9.0%-5.9%-8.3%13.8%-2.7%-11.1%-21.7%-48.3%-0.2%-4.4%2.3%20.2%-10.4%-14.6%-19.5%15.7%11.1%5.2%22Q2-8.9%-8.8%-15.3%-16.4%20.6%-1.2%-16.4%-26.4%-54.8%1.0%-16.1%11.7%21.3%-17.0%-15.1%-22.9%25.1%13.6%-4.5%22Q3-14.9%-6.1%-28.7%5.8%-5.2%-0.7%-27.2%-30.6%-38.4%-30.4%-16.3%-25.6%-1.7%-28.8%-27.4%-14.5%14.4%9.5%10.6%22Q4-23.0%-20.1%-41.0%-11.0%-33.3%-18.3%-33.3%-38.4%-36.8%-44.3%-21.9%-47.6%-46.3%-36.0%-25.8%-24.0%9.9%-1.2%-2.1%23Q1-4.6%-8.9%-23.6%6.8%-19.9%-5.0%-5.1%-14.5%-11.9%-23.0%-3.3%-25.2%-28.9%-8.7%1.2%-9.1%15.8%10.9%21.0%23Q2 2.2%-4.1%3.9%36.6%-18.5%7.2%2.1%2.4%18.1%-16.0%9.5%-18.4%-24.9%-1.8%5.7%1.6%15.8%18.5%35.0%23Q3 6.6%-1.8%20.5%16.9%-11.6%4.7%9.4%17.8%2.3%12.2%7.2%-2.0%-17.4%7.6%16.2%9.6%10.1%24.6%18.9%23Q4 11.5%8.7%41.3%19.9%-0.1%30.5%11.8%21.6%42.1%17.3%6.3%21.8%4.0%12.9%16.8%9.1%-4.5%20.2%16.6%24Q1 8.6%2.0%28.4%20.7%3.7%30.3%10.3%12.6%20.3%7.3%4.5%10.6%5.8%11.4%5.8%13.8%12.8%18.8%23.8%14 2022 2021/2022/2023+26.9%/-1.4%/-0.7%wind-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002503001Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 YOY 15 1Q24 2020 2022 2022 1Q24 1Q24 2020 1Q24 wind 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1LME铜 同比 50.9%81.1%43.8%35.3%17.6%-1.9%-17.4%-17.5%-10.7%-11.0%7.9%2.0%-5.5%LME铝 同比 24.1%60.3%55.4%44.2%56.5%19.8%-11.1%-15.9%-27.0%-21.5%-8.5%-5.7%-8.2%塑料 同比 24.6%33.7%24.9%7.3%-0.8%-5.1%-13.1%-16.0%-14.4%-16.8%-6.2%-4.2%-1.6%钢材 同比 25.6%50.1%44.1%22.8%5.5%-9.0%-24.8%-21.2%-13.6%-18.8%-4.1%0.3%-5.6%32寸TV面板价格 同比 103.8%151.9%59.0%-31.9%-47.2%-60.7%-61.0%-26.6%-17.5%3.9%39.8%18.7%12.8%50寸TV面板价格 同比 82.4%121.9%69.8%-18.9%-48.6%-60.3%-60.6%-35.3%-7.4%22.4%54.0%42.8%31.2%CCFI综合 同比 113.3%153.5%228.8%161.2%75.6%45.9%-1.4%-50.6%-68.5%-70.3%-70.3%-47.1%18.8%CCFI美东 同比 60.3%88.8%125.5%98.3%79.6%59.1%21.9%-30.9%-56.7%-68.3%-69.4%-51.9%-0.1%CCFI美西 同比 87.1%100.3%120.2%101.6%94.7%68.6%13.0%-53.5%-69.9%-71.7%-68.6%-32.8%25.3%CCFI欧洲 同比 183.2%247.4%384.3%258.5%77.9%44.6%-7.3%-52.7%-74.5%-77.2%-77.6%-60.6%40.4%人民币兑美元同比-7.6%-8.7%-5.1%-2.6%-3.3%3.6%9.8%9.1%8.3%8.5%2.9%2.0%5.1%人民币兑美元环比 0.3%-1.5%0.0%-1.4%-0.5%5.5%6.0%-2.0%-1.2%5.7%0.5%-2.9%1.8%24H2 16 1 170%10%20%30%40%50%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2+30%15%70%23 18 30%0%20%40%60%80%100%2/1/1/1/wind 15%2013 70 438802014 75 44331 7017 2445 34.9%2015 82 44550 6288 2971 47.3%2016 91 44912 6049 4517 74.7%2017 96 45181 8875 2594 29.2%2018 109 45562 9281 6379 68.7%2019 116 45827 9212 3178 34.5%2020 118 46010 8028 1178 14.7%2021 131 46402 8470 6726 79.4%2022 134 46802 8429 1788 21.2%38.4%44.9%wind 19 24 4 12 14 1 2 3 24 4 28 30 240-400 500-1000 4 30 80 24 20 2022/5691/2754/2708/1473 2022 32%/70%/65%/175%wind 1 2022=2022-2021*2 1 2*2022 14.1/2.6*10000 72615 10 8351 8429 5691 32%53688 10 5369 4077 2708 65%56508 10 5651 4123 2754 70%64480 10 6448 2842 1473 175%35033 10 3503 1383 14 252%/2023 24%2018 21 wind Euromonitor 23.5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0100020003000400050006000200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023China World 050100150200198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009201120132015201720192021:+/24+22-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%Jan-10Jul-10Jan-11Jul-11Jan-12Jul-12Jan-13Jul-13Jan-14Jul-14Jan-15Jul-15Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%-40-200204060801002011/6/12011/12/12012/6/12012/12/12013/6/12013/12/12014/6/12014/12/12015/6/12015/12/12016/6/12016/12/12017/6/12017/12/12018/6/12018/12/12019/6/12019/12/12020/6/12020/12/12021/6/12021/12/12022/6/12022/12/12023/6/12023/12/1:LME:LME:wind wind 23+24/CR3/2350%55%60%65%70%75%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24Q1 YOY%CR2%CR2 24 23 45%22 36%A/H 54.7%24-26 24-26 25 26 50%24 3.0%45%23 61.6%22 58.2%60%24 4.7%60%24 6.1%45%ROE 40%=+24 wind 24 wind 2024/5/124年分红率 24年股息率 24年分红率 24年股息率 24年分红率 24年股息率 24年分红率 24年股息率 24年分红率 24年股息率45%3.0%60%4.7%45%6.1%50%3.2%40%3.4%47%3.1%62%4.8%47%6.4%52%3.3%42%3.6%50%3.3%64%5.0%50%6.8%54%3.4%44%3.8%海尔智家 美的集团 格力电器 海信家电 长虹美菱 PEG 1 PEG A.O.20 x PEG 2&A.O.+ROE A&ROE 25 wind 2024/5/17 PE-TTM 3,238 7.2%3.0%11.4%4,123 3.2%-10.6%30.2%40.2 5,358 2.6%7.7%27.3%28.3 3,509-1.9%-1.9%9.9%17.6 1,246 4.8%9.2%1435.8%29.5 217-1.2%16.5%336-0.8%6.5%-4.1A.O.Smith 877 3.8%4.4%23.5%41.0 0 6.1%7.7%21.4%12.1 0 6.1%9.4%16.1%12.2 0 0.4%0.8%24.1%7.0 0 15.5%22.4%14.3%10.1 0 5.6%67.5%6.2%10.026 1 2 KA 23 70 1616 4544/984 390 626 2545 23 181%iRobot 23 20%-25%10%-15%7 CEIC 21 24 3 6 2023 2024 lab 24M1-4/+19.7%/+7.5%/+2.0%/+29.8%3 27 lab lab 28 23 24 22 23-11.4%23+25.8%1Q24+23 Q2/1Q24 23H2 24+&23 24 24 TTI 23 shark HOT 24-25 20-25%/29 TV LG 30 Omidia 2023/TCL 76/101 LG/125/241 24Q1 85/100+49.7%/+750%TCL65+44.6%51.2%/+7.3pct 61.6/+2.6 44.345.647.349.35050.65151.552.240424446485052542018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 OLED 2023 LGE Sony Samsung OLED 85.5%/+3.5pct 2023 OLED 548-20.6%2.7%2024 640+17%MiniLED MiniLED OLED 2023 MiniLED 198 46.6%TCL 22.2%MiniLED 425+24.7%2.1%2024 659 OLED Mini LED 92 140%2024 185+101%310100200300400500600700800 MiniLED MiniLED OLED OLED 2022 2023 2024E MiniLED 7 2014 2018 2016 2023 13.23%1.17pct 2023/100 44.75%/61.64%32-10%-5%0%5%10%1701801902002102202302402012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY%0%5%10%15%20%25%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 TCLLGE+AOC Vizio TCL 33 23 24 lab 4/+7.2%/+12.2%1 2 Play 3 Play 5 1799 RS 3 Q2 Q3+DLP+ROI 投资建议3435 1+TCL 2 24 3+MiniLED TCL 4 3637“”“”“”C3(C3 38
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