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2024/05/27 1 Wind Bloomberg0YFUyRmRsRmNtNsRrMrOoP6MaObRpNrRtRsOlOoOsPfQtRvM6MpPxPMYtPrPxNmNtM3写 在 前 面：耐 克 还 是纺服的估值锚吗？4h0NpgT4yc3nA9A93+kSs4pKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MMnn0XnmZFwaQTV/7U6zdyh 5 Wind Bloomberg 耐克 安踏体育 申洲国际 耐克 安踏体育 申洲国际2014 25 18 17 8.94 29.32 14.582015 28 23 20 21.54 20.01 13.982016 25 22 19 14.88 16.91 25.182017 21 31 23 12.77 29.44 27.652018 64 24 31(54.41)32.87 20.672019 29 36 27 108.43 30.25 12.222020 36 65 24(36.98)(3.41)0.232021 63 36 50 125.56 49.55(33.98)2022 31 32 40 5.57(1.68)35.332023 30 23 19(16.14)34.86(0.12)平均 值/C A G R 35 31 27 7 22 8PE-TTM 净利润增速6(60.00)(40.00)(20.00)0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023ROE PE-TTM-160.0000-110.0000-60.0000-10.000040.000090.0000140.00002014/1/12014/6/12014/11/12015/4/12015/9/12016/2/12016/7/12016/12/12017/5/12017/10/12018/3/12018/8/12019/1/12019/6/12019/11/12020/4/12020/9/12021/2/12021/7/12021/12/12022/5/12022/10/12023/3/12023/8/1ADS.DF NKE.N Wind Bloomberg-50%0%50%100%150%19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 24Q2 EMEA APLA7 Wind Bloomberg(4,000)(2,000)02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 01002003004005006007008002009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 8 Wind Bloomberg 010203040 PE-TTM010203040 PE-TTM010203040 PE-TTM010203040 PE-TTM010203040 361 PE-TTM010203040 Inditex lululemonPE-TTM010203040 PE-TTM9-40-2002040608002004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002009-01-012009-09-012010-05-012011-01-012011-09-012012-05-012013-01-012013-09-012014-05-012015-01-012015-09-012016-05-012017-01-012017-09-012018-05-012019-01-012019-09-012020-05-012021-01-012021-09-012022-05-012023-01-012023-09-01 _ _ _ _ Wind Euromonitor(5)515253545556575852017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10方式上：仅对增速、估值安全边际敏感多元化估值体系，综合考虑股东回报+增速指标上：只参考g、PE综合考虑ROE g/（1-d），PE 以及现金流高ROE（g 较高）高ROE（d 较高）高 回 报 资产筛选1112平均ROE 标准差2023/12/31 3年平均ROE 10年标准差*2023/12/3133.89 35.73 10.05 9.2422.20 28.75-2.1922.61 27.53 12.83 2.2823.84 25.66 3.00 2.6017.99 23.16 14.89 5.8819.39 21.58 9.61 3.2220.18 20.66 6.84 3.1513.08 19.30 17.86 2.869.29 17.50 8.02 3.1219.26 17.07 12.44 7.5517.29 17.03 5.40 5.1315.41 16.71 1.79 4.1524.81 15.75 12.11 2.089.26 15.50-1.2513.63 14.88 1.66 4.3115.00 14.76 1.79 7.2613.42 14.34 24.83 6.1014.33 14.06 3.05 2.527.33 13.85 13.18 2.04ROE股息率（%）平均ROE 标准差2013/12/31 2023/12/31 3年平均ROE 10年标准差*2023/12/3111.33 16.86 13.59 9.713.11 27.90 13.38 0.4614.09 8.90 13.13 7.9010.30 13.27 13.01 5.3412.50 7.15 12.93 0.4712.02 13.69 12.83 8.5113.74 13.19 12.77 5.5713.13 11.78 12.74 6.919.15 14.07 12.58 3.0916.41 5.08 12.57 8.7716.39 4.06 12.39 1.9010.11 5.93 12.16 1.4611.67 11.44 11.88 4.1411.40 12.04 11.81 2.3112.43 9.86 11.78 0.808.29 11.11 11.24 0.0012.89 8.14 11.04 2.276.89 10.52 10.41 0.9910.77 10.59 10.31 1.564.39 9.74 10.24 0.8212.20 10.80 10.05 3.926.87 8.97 10.03 6.54ROE股息率（%）Wind 江南布衣扬州金泉华利集团安踏体育滔搏牧高笛比音勒芬嘉曼服饰海澜之家波司登伟星股份富安娜申洲国际报喜鸟水星家纺浙江自然中国利郎新澳股份乔治白百隆东方盛泰集团富春染织航民股份特步国际恒辉安防真爱美家台华新材南山智尚嘉欣丝绸102030405060705 10 15 20 25 30 35 40l24-25 年平均 业绩增 速近3 年平均ROE13 Wind 14 Wind Bloomberg 公司 FY 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 24Q2 24Q3存货（亿美元）66.99 65.06 77 84.2 96.62 93.26 89.05 84.54 86.98 79.79 77.26YOY（%）-0.09%6.83%15.05%22.85%44.23%43.34%15.65%0.40%-9.98%-14.44%-13.24%存货周转天数 93.08 94.71 106.2 108.97 115.06 108.83 107.81 105.01 106.91 101.05 101.58YOY（天）-15.11-4.16 0.08 4.81 21.98 14.12 1.61-3.96-8.15-7.78-6.23存货（亿欧元）45.42 54.83 63.15 59.73 56.75 55.4 48.49 45.25YOY（%）15.34%35.25%72.35%48.99%24.94%1.04%-23.21%-24.24%存货周转天数 145 157.21 160.26 151.41 180.07 187.21 170.27 168.08YOY（天）-2.78 4.58 21.65 6.88 35.07 30 10.01 16.67存货（亿美元）14.50 15.64 17.79 18.18 15.02 14.86 13.82 15.25 13.61YOY（%）35.79%47.92%44.62%23.59%3.64%-4.98%-22.33%-16.09%-9.43%存货周转天数 132.02 138.95 148.24 150.67 146.01 150.54 147.52 156.4 121.38YOY（天）6.76 19.07 18.52 10.11 13.99 11.59-0.72 5.73-24.63存货（亿美元）12.75 14.62 17.42 14.47 15.80 16.61 16.64 13.24YOY（%）73.97%85.11%84.52%49.76%23.94%13.61%-4.48%-8.55%存货周转天数 135.75 140.47 154 120.08 160.28 158.88 155.07 124.39YOY（天）17.72 26.42 31.61 10.39 24.53 18.41 1.07 4.31存货（亿日元）4051.03 3503.48 3517.18 4859.28 5703.14 4376.71 3873.86 4492.54 4857.24 4144.32YOY（%）0.24%-1.21%2.05%23.06%40.78%24.92%10.14%-7.55%-14.83%-5.31%存货周转天数 124.67 113.7 120.4 144.89 141.42 114.53 113.59 126.55 114.33 103.13YOY（天）-0.68-1.66-2.2 6.81 16.75 0.83-6.81-18.34-27.09-11.4NIKEAdidasSkechersLululemonFast Retailing15 Wind Lululemon ON Adidas-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%2021 2022 2023 Q3on running 营收 增速（%）Adidas 营 收增 速（%）-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%2020 2021 2022 2023 Q3Lululemon 营 收增 速（%）Nike 营收 增速（%）16 Wind 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,0002015-01-012015-06-012015-11-012016-04-012016-09-012017-02-012017-07-012017-12-012018-05-012018-10-012019-03-012019-08-012020-01-012020-06-012020-11-012021-04-012021-09-012022-02-012022-07-012022-12-012023-05-012023-10-012024-03-01:17 Wind Bloomberg-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22+江南布衣扬州金泉华利集团安踏体育滔搏牧高笛比音勒芬李宁嘉曼服饰海澜之家波司登伟星股份云中马罗莱生活富安娜地素时尚申洲国际泰慕士报喜鸟雅戈尔水星家纺浙江自然中国利郎新澳股份晶苑国际乔治白百隆东方盛泰集团富春染织航民股份特步国际恒辉安防浔兴股份真爱美家台华新材南山智尚太平鸟嘉欣丝绸0123456789105 10 15 20 25 30 35 4023年股息率3 年平均ROE18 Wind 19 Wind 20 Wind 股票简称 ROE 股息率（%）2023经营性净现金流（百万元）总市值（百万元）潜在股息率（%）高股息潜在高股息江南布衣 33.89 6.51 939 7034 5.34 是凤竹纺织 27.90 1.88-22 1444-0.61 否 否安踏体育 26.27 2.18 19634 232502 3.38 否 是众望布艺 24.81 2.35 159 1917 3.32 否 是华利集团 22.61 1.70 3694 82519 1.79 否 否扬州金泉 22.20 2.57 279 2606 4.28 否 是比音勒芬 20.18 3.19 1296 17909 2.89 否 是牧高笛 19.39 3.47 279 2308 4.83 否 是海澜之家 19.26 5.95 5230 45194 4.63 是滔搏 17.99 6.22 4351 32447 5.36 是 是波司登 17.29 3.84 3051 46748 2.61 否 是报喜鸟 16.86 4.45 1154 8201 5.63 是伟星股份 15.41 3.60 688 14616 1.88 否 否富安娜 15.00 5.80 766 9372 3.27 是申洲国际 14.64 2.45 5227 113467 1.84 否 否中国利郎 14.52 7.79 1101 5034 8.75 是乔治白 14.07 4.19 439 2408 7.29 是罗莱生活 13.63 4.48 936 7444 5.03 是地素时尚 13.42 5.98 703 6387 4.40 是水星家纺 13.27 4.80 493 4929 4.00 是新澳股份 13.19 3.81 552 5750 3.84 否 是李宁 13.17 2.74 4688 51035 3.67 否 是特步国际 11.86 3.70 1255 14086 3.56 否 是晶苑国际 11.64 4.11 2230 11371 7.85 是建 议 关 注个股21220.001.002.003.004.005.006.0001020304050602017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023ROE(%)()0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2021 2022 2023CAPEX/Wind 23关键指标2021A 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E营业收入(百万)17,469.58 20,569.27 20,113.74 23,704.72 27,244.0630,913.51增长率(%)25.40 17.74-2.21 17.85 14.93 13.47归母净利润(百万)2,767.86 3,228.02 3,200.21 3,842.91 4,446.55 5,061.62增长率(%)47.34 16.63-0.86 20.08 15.71 13.83EPS(摊薄)2.37 2.77 2.74 3.29 3.81 4.34基准股本(百万股)1,167.00 1,167.00 1,167.00 1,167.00 1,167.00 1,167.00ROE(摊薄)(%)25.33 24.46 21.18 21.72 21.34 20.66ROA(%)21.36 19.39 17.51 17.35 17.45 17.09PE 37.55 20.65 19.20 20.69 17.88 15.71 Wind 240.000.501.001.502.0001020304050602013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023ROE(%)()关键指标 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E营业总收入(百万)12,190.53 13,516.51 16,213.61 16,774.22 21,021.50 24,316.50 27,543.50增长率(%)17.40 10.88 19.95 3.46 25.32 15.67 13.27归母净利润(百万)1,203.18 1,709.57 2,062.32 2,138.57 2,793.50 3,235.50 3,695.50增长率(%)22.61 42.09 20.63 3.70 30.62 15.82 14.22EPS(稀释)0.11 0.16 0.19 0.19 0.26 0.30 0.34ROE(摊薄)(%)11.78 15.44 16.91 17.04 20.70 23.10 25.20ROA(%)9.85 12.34 13.51 13.87-PE 14.83 18.68 15.67 19.55 16.96 14.64 12.82 Wind 250246810121416182005101520253035(%)()ROE(2023)关键指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E营业总收入(百万)4,086 4,465 5,213 5,909 6,474增长率(%)-0.98 9.28 16.74 13.36 9.55归母净利润(百万)559 621 844 962 1071 增长率(%)-13.65 11.17 35.85 14.03 11.31EPS(稀释)1.10 1.22 1.63 1.86 2.07ROE(摊薄)(%)33.17 31.35 37.94 37.46 36.70ROA(%)20.13 21.61 18.47 18.87 17.50PE 7.12 6.54 7.91 6.94 6.23 Wind 26关键指标2021A 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E营业收入(百万)20,188.04 18,561.74 21,527.55 23,684.12 26,080.2928,693.94增长率(%)12.41-8.06 15.98 10.02 10.12 10.02归母净利润(百万)2,491.25 2,155.28 2,951.96 3,332.15 3,727.15 4,154.17增长率(%)39.60-13.49 36.96 12.88 11.85 11.46EPS(摊薄)0.58 0.50 0.67 0.69 0.78 0.86基准股本(百万股)4,319.60 4,319.61 4,381.00 4,802.81 4,802.81 4,802.81ROE(摊薄)(%)16.62 14.76 18.39 18.08 18.60 18.84ROA(%)8.11 6.42 8.78 9.18 9.86 10.00PE 11.11 10.62 10.86 13.23 11.83 10.61 Wind 27关 键 指标 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E营业收入(百万)775.67 1,127.94 845.60 1,146.21 1,297.17 1,480.85增长率(%)29.93 45.42-25.03 35.55 13.17 14.16归母净利润(百万)101.09 239.44 227.82 270.44 311.38 364.57增长率(%)69.84 136.86-4.85 18.71 15.14 17.08EPS(摊薄)2.01 4.76 3.40 4.04 4.65 5.44基准股本(百万股)-67.00 67.00 67.00 67.00ROE(摊薄)(%)21.36 33.30 17.09 16.97 13.61 13.80ROA(%)17.33 30.17 17.33-PE-13.43 9.01 7.82 6.68 Wind 2024 3-5 ASP 2829
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