2018-2019年世界能源展望报告.pptx

2018-2019年世界能源展望报告,2040,2040,2018,40 20404,25,2040,2525,70%,40% 2040,182023242830324246515658606264,1117,8,2040,9,70768084929498100103106109110,67,112114119120,20181614121086420,*,403530252015105,01970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040*122,2040,42-45,98-99,84-87106-107,20151050,20151050,20151050*,*,2040,2532-4152-65,40%,2040,68-101,概览,GDP,25,LNGRussian pipelineConventional,9%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%,GDP% 年均10%,1990-2016,2016-2040,GDP,3.25%,25,2040,17,92,GDP,25,25,80%,GDP,10%,Thousands,6%5%4%3%2%1%0%-1%-2%-3%,1970- 1980- 1990- 2000- 2010- 2020- 2030-1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040,GDP,GDP%,2.01.51.00.50.0,1990-15,2015-40,20,2%,GDP,1.3%GDP35%2040206,60-61,Russian pipelineConventional,1050,2015,1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040,*LNG,1.0%0.5%0.0%,2.0%1.5%,1990-2016,2016-2040,*,%,20%,29%28-2930-31,32-33,0.5%0.0%-0.5%,1985-2000,2000-15,2015-30,2030-40,%3.0%2.5%2.0%,*,210,1.5%31.0%,654,1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,*,*,l,15,70%,2040,2040,30%25%20%15%10%5%0%,35%,45%40%,2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035-2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040,%,4%,1970- 1980- 1990- 2000- 2010- 2020- 2030-1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040,*,%5%5%,4%3%3%2%2%1%1%0%*,l,1.9%,2040,1.0%20%,10%,1.00.50.0,2.5,3.53.0,1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040,2.01.5,2.02.51.5,3.0,3.5,2016,2040,.2016-2040,66%,14%,13%,7%,.,90%,210,543,2016,2040,*,210,543,2016,2040,*,.,2040,25%,25,80%,GDP,-100,350300250200150100500-50,2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035-,0.0,3.53.02.52.01.51.00.5,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,*,2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040*,85%,94%,20402040,5%42-45,86420,10,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,.,*,*,NEDC (New European Drive Cycle),/,*,2.01.51.00.50.0,2.5,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,*LNGRussian pipelineConventional,.,2040,2040,20,3,112113,PHEV,BEV,2040,ICE,2-3%,15,2000,2040100,3,70% 20405,2000,7,100,5040,2016,2020,2025,2030,2035,2040,10%0%,3020%20,40%30%,2016,2020,2025,2030,2035,2040,-,-,2,3,.,1,2,2040,30%,15%20202030,2040,15%,22.6,18.2,2.5,2.0,1050,30252015,4035,2016-2040/45,18.72016,18.62040,.,36-37,80%60%40%20%0%,100%,2016,2020,2030,2040,Evolving transition,ICE ban,80%60%40%20%0%,100%,2016,2020,2025,2030,2035,2040,-,20402035,20302040,2030,20%,204015% 30%,-2040,2016,0,2420161284,2016,渐进转型,内 燃机汽车禁令,2040,-/,403530252015105,01990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2040,2016,7%,-./,GDP%,100%80%60%40%20%0%1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040,5%4%3%2%1%0%,1990-2016,2016-2040,GDP,l,70%,7%,2040,94-95,13%,25,2040,30%,25,40%20%,2016,2040,2016,2040,2016,2040,2016,2040,.,2016-2040,10006543210-1-2-3,2016,2040,100%80%60%40%20%0%,l2030,2040,2040,50,2015,1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040,0.5%0.0%-0.5%,1.5%101.0%,3.0%2.5%2.0%,2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040,%,l,112-113,2016,2040,2016,2040,2040,2016,2040,2016,2040,2016,5,-400,-200,0,200,400,600,800,.2016-2040,43210,7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%-1%-2%,1975-1995 1995-2015 2015-2030,2030-40,121086420,1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,:%,l,20,1.5%,20,20,2040,80%,2025,60%45%30%15%0%,1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,8%6%4%2%0%,GDP*,.GDP%,1990-2016,2016-2040,*,25,45%,70%,50,252015,35%30%,40%10,50%45%,0,5,10,15,(2016-40),GDP*包括非燃烧,1965-2016*/,1990-2016,2016-2040,1965,2040,2016,1980,25,/,10%0%,50%40%30%20%,1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,*,-2-3-4,43210-1,1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040,*,y,12%,18%,204013%,2040,204024%,14%,2040,3.6,2016,9%,2040 7.8,24%,2040,15%,30%,50,150,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,GDP,.GDP,2000 =100,GDP,0.0,1.21000.80.4,2.42.01.6,1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040,l,2040,35%,GDP,20162040,1975,GDP,2040,40%,2016,25%,25%,0%,30%20%10%,50%40%,0%,60%40%20%,100%80%,LNGRussian pipelineConventional,0,105,2015,40%,2040,1.6%,0.5%,7%21%,11010510095908580,2016,20402016,/,1300,/,2040,1 9,/,1100,/,2016,2020,2040,600,/,500,/,40200,140120100,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,0.50.0-0.5,801.060,2.52.01.5,2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035-,2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040,/,/,SUV,800 /,55%,400 /,300 /,32-33,34-35,100 /2030,700,/,28-29,0%,45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,/,0,12010080604020,1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040,(3%,),NGLs,15,2030,2300,/,67-77,3%,2040,4500,/,120010008006004002000,2010,2015,2020,2025,2030,2035,2040,181614121086420,2010,2015,2020,2025,2030,2035,2040,*/,*,500,/,2030,1000,/,10,40%,2040,700,1200,/,50%,2030,1500,2025/,/,1.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0-0.2-0.4-0.6,1990-2016,2016-2020,2020-2025,2025-2030,2030-2035,2035-2040, 2016-2040,/,1612840-4-8,1100,/,300,/,600,/,/,3002030,500,/,6005004003002001000,700,2016,2040,*,6005004003002001000,700,2016,2040,2016,2040,/,/,*,20%,204040%,2020,0,200,400,600,2020,2030,2040,0,200100,500400,600,1990,2000,2010,/,0%,10%,30%30020%,40%,50%,1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,700,/,26-27,/,46-47,590210,/,30-31,110,/,2040,5%,34-35,2.01.51.00.50.0,2016-2040,2016-2040,%1.6%1.4%1.2%1.0%0.8%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.0%-0.2%,1.1%,1.6%,-0.5%,0.0%,0.5%,1.0%,1.5%,2.0%,2016-2040,%,1990-2040,25%23%21%19%17%15%,27%,1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,98-99,1%,80706050403020100,1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,80706050403020100,1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,/,/,2040,90-91,0,70605040302010,2010,2016,2020,2030,2040,0,70605040302010,2010 2016 2020 2030 2040,/,*,/,2040,2016,20402040,0,50004000300020001000,2020,2030,2040,0,54321,1990,2000,2010,-1%,5%4%3%2%1%0%,1970- 1980- 1990- 2000- 2010- 2020- 2030-1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040,%,25,25,204040%2016,10%,2040,25%,10%5%0%,20%15%,806040200,160140120100,2000-16,2016-30,2030-40,.%,(1966-91),(1985-2010),(2015-2040),7.5%,2020,98-99,2030,50%20401970-1980,3210,54,9876,2015,2018,40200,60,12010080,0,400,800,1200 1600 2000 2400 2800,.2035$2016/,2015,2020,2025,2040,2035,2030,*,*,2015,2035,2035150%,202024%,100%80%60%40%20%0%,2016-2040,2016-2040,80%60%40%20%0%-20%,2016-2040,0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%,20202040,90%,2040,40%,25%106-107,-40,12080400,1995-2005,2005-2016,2016-2030,2030-2040,-40,12080400,1995-2005,2005-2016,2016-2030,2030-2040,.,51,1.8% 5990%,2%,11,8%101.3% 61,16,204013,11,CO2,35302520151050,40,1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040,2040,CO2,0,2,4,6,8,10,12,*,2040,10%,55%,252040,50%,2040,403020100,20151050,2016,2040,:,CO2,2040,25,2040,2040,40%,300200,10010000-100-100-200-200-300-300,300200,2035,2035,2035,15%,5%,96-97 2035,Crude andcondensate,NGLs,0,15010050,200,350300250,400,2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035-,2020 2025 2030 2035 2040,*,0%,10%5%,20%15%,25%,0,15010050,200,350300250,400,2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035-,2020 2025 2030 2035 2040,2040*%,15010050,300250200,350,02015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040,20172018,2040,2035,1.9,1,1.3,2040,3.2,2035 20402040,2035 20402.5,2035 2040,20%,2016-2040%1.4%1.2%1.0%0.8%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.0%-0.2%,:,2017,IHS122-123,0.9% 1.4%,1.2%,25,1.3%7%,58%56%54%52%50%,2016,8%6%4%2%0%,6005004003002001000,2040,:,2016-2040%,2040,1%2040,7%,5.5%,2040,2,5,%,%,2016,2040,1990-2016,2016-2040,1990-2016,2016-2040,1990-2016,2016-2040,GDPGDP,/,1097.41512233.4,2359.2267736.8,632.16-5411.8,1261.711-453.3,135%40%68%-31%55%,115%23%74%-37%10%,3.3%1.3%2.0%-1.4%1.7%,3.2%0.9%2.3%-1.9%0.4%,%,%,%,2016,2040,2016,2040,1990-2016,2016-2040,1990-2016,2016-2040,1990-2016,2016-2040,13276,17983,100% 100%,5134,4707,63%,35%,1.9%,1.3%,4336320437325929105022662596580938405584,4836470737629121241252733987843127754668814,33%24%28%4%7%4%20%45%6%29%42%,27%26%21%5%7%14%19%44%7%30%49%,1183143714861394234671194222234013782614,5001502303203312025735187746816263231,38%81%66%31%87%1333%81%59%73%56%88%,12%47%1%54%36%404%28%31%58%42%58%,1.2%2.3%2.0%1.0%2.4%10.8%2.3%1.8%2.1%1.7%2.5%,0.5%1.6%0.0%1.8%1.3%7.0%1.0%1.1%1.9%1.5%1.9%,%,%,%,2016278922737052981902164296667489544055803053,20402914229910854771826146010207161382100287544319,201621%17%5%2%14%12%7%5%7%3%42%23%,204016%13%6%3%10%8%6%4%8%6%49%24%,1990-201646530737417268-30-400-19163121837792370,2016-204012526380180-75-182554248756231741266,1990-201620%16%113%136%4%-2%-29%-22%239%98%210%347%,2016-20404%1%54%60%- 4%-11%6%6%54%128%57%41%,1990-20160.7%0.6%2.9%3.4%0.1%-0.1%-1.3%-1.0%4.8%2.7%4.4%5.9%,2016-20400.2%0.0%1.8%2.0%-0.2%-0.5%0.2%0.3%1.8%3.5%1.9%1.5%,724,1921,5%,11%,529,1197,271% 165%,5.2%,4.2%,912,1671,7%,9%,618,759,210%,83%,4.5%,2.6%,13276 17983,100% 100%,5134,4707,63%,35%,1.9%,1.3%,55817695,558312400,42%58%,31%69%,7954340,24706,17%129%,0%61%,0.6%3.2%,0.0%2.0%,38%,GDP,2010,NGLs,GTLs,CTLs,THANKS,