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历次房地产周期复盘及政策空间展望 相关研究：1.2023.9.14 行业评级：增持%1 3 12-3 1 0-5-3-11 300 分析师：张智珑 证 书 编 号：S0500521120002 Tel 021-50295363 Email 88 10 2005 05-08 09-11 12-14 15 39 37 3 09-11 12-14 1 2 05-08 2015 9 15-16 14 2 2016 2021 2015 2016 1 05-08 2 1 2 2 09-11 1 2 1 1 3 12-14 1 2 17 4 14-16 5 17 17-18 20 60%50%80%70%-20%-10%0%10%2022/9/26 2022/11/25 2023/1/24 2023/3/25 2023/5/24 2023/7/23 2023/9/21 300()证 券研 究报告 2023 年 09 月28 日 湘 财证 券研究 所 行 业研 究 房 地产 行业深 度 9 9 26 12 5 9 20 9 6 WUEVyRqNsRrQrPnOrMpQmNbRaO7NpNpPsQsRfQrQmMlOpPwP6MmNoPMYnRmPwMnPuM 1 正文目录 1.3 1.1 3.3 1.2.7 2 05-08.8 2.1 2 1.9 2.2.10 3 09-11“”.12 3.1 1 2 3.13 3.2.14 4 12-14.16 4.1 1.17 4.2“”.18 5 2015.20 5.1 14-16.20 5.2 17.23 6.28 6.1.28 6.2.30 7.32 8.32 图表目录 1.4 2.4 3 3.4 4 3.4 5 100.5 6.5 7.5 8.7 9.8 10 2004“831”.9 11.10 12.10 13 06-07 5.12 14.13 15 09-12.13 16 12-14.17 17 12-14.17 2 18 14-15 5.21 19 14-16.23 20 14-16.23 21 17-18.24 22 30.26 23 2020.27 24 2020.27 1.6 2 05-08.11 3 09-11.15 4 12-14.19 5 14-16.21 6 16 3 19.25 7.29 8 9.30 3 2005 1 1.1 3 2005 05-08 09-11 12-14 15 4 1 Wind 2 Wind 2011 70 3 3 4 3 01000200030004000500060007000-80-60-40-20020406080100120 2005 2008 2009 2011 2012 2014 2015 01000200030004000500060007000-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.505-0705-1206-0506-1007-0307-0808-0108-0608-1109-0409-0910-0210-0710-1211-0511-1012-0312-0813-0113-0613-1114-0414-0915-0215-0715-1216-0516-1017-0317-0818-0118-0618-1119-0419-0920-0220-0720-1221-0521-1022-0322-0823-0123-0670:70 2009 2011 2005 2008 2012 2014 2015-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%70%90%04-0805-0405-1206-0807-0407-1208-0809-0409-1210-0811-0411-1212-0813-0413-1214-0815-0415-1216-0817-0417-1218-0819-0419-1220-0821-0421-1222-0823-04-25%-15%-5%5%15%25%35%45%04-0204-0905-0405-1106-0607-0107-0808-0308-1009-0509-1210-0711-0211-0912-0412-1113-0614-0114-0815-0315-1016-0516-1217-0718-0218-0919-0419-1120-0621-0121-0822-0322-1023-05 5 5 100 Wind 6 7 Wind 3 9 39 37 3 09-11 12-14 1 2 05-08 2020 2015 9 15-16 14 2 2016 2021-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%909294969810010210410610811003-0103-0704-0104-0705-0105-0706-0106-0707-0107-0708-0108-0709-0109-0710-0110-0711-0111-0712-0112-0713-0113-0714-0114-0715-0115-0716-0116-0717-0117-0718-0118-0719-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-0123-0702000400060008000100001200010-01 10-07 11-01 11-07 12-01 12-07 13-01 13-07 14-01 14-07 15-01 15-07 16-01 16-07 17-01 17-07 18-01 18-07 19-01 19-07 20-01 20-07 21-01 21-07 22-01 22-07 23-01 23-07 6 1 2005-2008 2005.62008.11 42 2007 8 2008 11 27 15 70 2005.72008.12 42 2007 10 2008 12 28 14 2005.72008.10 40 2007 10 2008 10 28 12 2005.42009.5 50 2007 9 2009 5 30 20 2006.42009.4 37 2007 11 2009 4 20 17 2009-2011 2008.122012.2 39 2009 11 2012 2 12 27 70 2009.12012.4 40 2009 12 2012 4 12 28 2008.112011.12 38 2009 11 2011 12 13 25 2009.62012.7 38 2010 5 2012 7 12 26 2009.52012.8 40 2010 5 2012 8 13 27 2012-2014 2012.32015.2 36 2013 2 2015 2 12 24 70 2012.52014.8 28 2013 3 2014 8 11 17 2012.12014.2 26 2013 5 2014 2 17 9 2012.82015.2 31 2013 11 2015 2 16 15 2012.92015.11 39 2014 2 2015 11 18 21 2015 2015.3 102 2016 4 2022 4 14-70 2014.9 108 2016 9 2022 10 25-2014.3 114 2015 5 2022 10 15-2015.3 102 2016 4 2022 8 14 2015.12 93 2019 4 2022 12 41-Wind 7 1.2 2.5-4 1-1.5 8-9 8 6-9 6-9 1.5-2.5 8 2015 2016 9 2 05-08 1998 2002 2003 2003 6 2003 8+26%2004 831 8 31-1.5-1-0.500.511.522.5-80-60-40-20020406080100120140160-MA3%70%2007 9 2008 9 2009 12 2016 3-4 3.25 9070 2011 12 2014 9 9.30 2013 2 2014 3 2016 10 2021 12 2020 8 2020 12 2021 2 2023 7 9 2004 2.4pct 17.4pct 10 2004 831 2005 2005 2005 3 2007 2008 2.1 2 1 2 2-3 2005 6 04 2007 8 58%27 70 2005 7 2007 4 10 2007 10 10.9%28 2006 4 2007 11+37%2005 4 2007 9+29%1 5-6 2008 2 11-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 10-32.9%8 15 2008 12 0.7%5 14 09 4 5 17 20 08 9 3 11 12 2.2 2005 2005 3 5 2 2006 5 90/70 90 70%5 90 30%5 2006 2 72bp 2007 2006 2007-1-0.500.511.522.5-80-60-40-2002040608010012014016018020005-02 05-08 06-02 06-08 07-02 07-08 08-02 08-08 09-02 70:-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%04-0804-1004-1205-0205-0405-0605-0805-1005-1206-0206-0406-0606-0806-1006-1207-0207-0407-0607-0807-1007-1208-0208-0408-0608-0808-1008-1209-0209-0409-0609-0809-1009-12-MA3-MA3 11 2007 9 30 40%1.1 12 5 99bp 10 2008 2008 11 12 05-08 2 05-08 2005 3 2005 5 2 2 2006 5 2006 5 90/70 5 90 30%90 20%2006 7 2006 7 2007 9 40%1.1 35%2007 12 12 2008 9 2008 10 90 1%2008 10 0.7 20%2008 11 2008 12 5 2 13 06-07 5 Wind 3 09-11 2008 11 2009 3 2009 12 5.05.35.65.96.26.56.87.17.47.78.003-0103-0403-0703-1004-0104-0404-0704-1005-0105-0405-0705-1006-0106-0406-0706-1007-0107-0407-0707-1008-0108-0408-0708-10 13 13 10-11 3.1 1 2 3 1 5-6 2008 12 2009 11+100%12 2009 1 V 3 12 8.7%12 2009 5 1 2010 5+41%+87%14 15 09-12 2 6 2010 4 2011 10 5 2012 2-14%27 2012 4 0.7%7 28 2012 8 7 27 26 11 12 7+12.8%-40-20020406080100120-1.00-0.500.000.501.001.502.0008-0908-1008-1108-1209-0109-0209-0309-0409-0509-0609-0709-0809-0909-1009-1109-1210-0110-0210-0310-0410-0510-0610-0710-0810-0910-1010-1110-1211-0111-0211-0311-0411-0511-0611-0711-0811-0911-1011-1111-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0570:2008 11 13 2009 12 24 2011 12 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%08-0608-0808-1008-1209-0209-0409-0609-0809-1009-1210-0210-0410-0610-0810-1010-1211-0211-0411-0611-0811-1011-1212-0212-0412-0612-0812-1012-1213-02-MA3-MA3 14 3.2 1 2008 2009 3 2009 12 2 05-08 2010 1 40%4 90 30%50%4 30 9 30 10 2011 1 60%2011 7 5 10-11 5 111bp 2011 2012 2011 12 2012 2 6 7 5 15 50bp 2 3 09-11 2009 3 2009 2009 3 2C 2009 5 20%35%30%35%2009 7 2009 12 2010 1 40%2010 4 90 30%50%10%1.1 2010 4 2010 6 5 1.1 2010 9 16 2010 9 30%50%1.1 2010 9 10 1 2 1 1 2010 10()()2011 1 60%1.1 2 5 2011 1 2011 7 8 9 11 2011 12 2012 2 4 12-14 2011 2012 2012 3 2013 2 17 2014 930 4.1 1 1 9-12 2012 3 2013 2 50%12 2012 5 2013 3 11 12 9-14 2 18 12 8-13 11 16 21.3%35%7 1 2013 3 14 2 1 15 2-16%24 2013 4 14 5 8-1.2%4 17 2015 11 2 21 15 14 3 15 2 1 15 9 11 3.6%16 12-14 17 12-14-1.5-1-0.500.511.5-20-10010203040506011-1212-0112-0212-0312-0412-0512-0612-0712-0812-0912-1012-1112-1213-0113-0213-0313-0413-0513-0613-0713-0813-0913-1013-1113-1214-0114-0214-0314-0414-0514-0614-0714-0814-0914-1014-1114-1215-0115-0215-03 70:13 19 2012 2 2013 2 2014 9 930-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-MA3-MA3 18 4.2 2012 2012 3 2013 2012 2013 2 1 2 3 2013 5 4 20%2013 3-10 20%11 2013 2014 2014 3 4 4 25 2014 40 2014 9 30 930 09 19 4 12-14 2012 3 2012 2012 2-7 2 5 6 7 2013 2 2013 2 1 20%2013 5 2013 10-11 2014 3 2014 2014 4 2014 4 25 2014 7 2014 9 0.7 2014 10 10 7 20 5 2015 2016 9-10 7 2 2017 14-16 16 9 5.1 14-16 2014 930 11 2015 3 30 40%20%5 2 2015 8 1 30 20 8 50%2015 9 2015 9 30 25%30%11 14 11 15 10 6 5 165bp 21 18 14-15 5 Wind 16 2 20%25%5 30%90 1%90 1.5%90 1%90 2%2 5 14-16 2014 9 0.7 2014 11 5 40BP 2015 3 40%20%30%2015 3 5 2 2015 3 5 25BP 2015 5 5 25BP 2015 6 5 25BP 2015 8 5 25BP 2015 8 1 30 20 4.54.85.15.45.76.06.36.66.97.212-0112-0412-0712-1013-0113-0413-0713-1014-0114-0414-0714-1015-0115-0415-0715-1016-0116-0416-0716-10 22 2015 8 50%2015 10 15 2015 9 20%30%25%2015 9 15 930 25%30%2015 10 5 25BP 2015 11 2015 12 2016 2 25%5 30%2016 2 90 1%90 1.5%90 3%1%90 2%2 14-16 15 15 4 14 16 4 44%4 11 16 9 1.8%23 19 14-16 5.2 17 2 2016 1-9 70 24%11%4%16 1 20 2016 30 340 20 14-16-1.5-1-0.500.511.52-60-40-2002040608010012014-0214-0514-0814-1115-0215-0515-0815-1116-0216-0516-0816-1117-0217-0517-0817-1118-0218-0518-0818-1119-0219-0519-0819-1120-0220-0520-0820-1121-0221-0521-0821-1122-0222-0522-0822-1123-0223-0523-08 70:14 930 15 3 15 9 16 4 16 9-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.014-0114-0314-0514-0714-0914-1115-0115-0315-0515-0715-0915-1116-0116-0316-0516-0716-0916-1117-0117-0317-0517-0717-0917-1118-0118-0318-0518-0718-0918-11:24 2016 3 25 9 30 70/90 9 10 22 2016 10 28 12 16 2017-2018 2018 2017 3 40 2016 16 10 16 11 8 2017 2018 3 18 2018 10 12 21 17-18-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0:25 6 16 3 19 2016 3 2 5 50%70%2016 3 1 3 2016 8-9 5 144 2 1 2016 9 50%70%35%30%40%90/70 2016 10-2016 12-2016 10+2017 12 2018 7-2018 10-2018 12-26 2019 4-2019 2019 2020 5 LPR 2 20 6 21 6 2020 17.4%2018 22 30 Wind-100.0%-50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%15-0315-0615-0915-1216-0316-0616-0916-1217-0317-0617-0917-1218-0318-0618-0918-1219-0319-0619-0919-1220-0320-0620-0920-1221-0321-0621-0921-1222-0322-0622-0922-1223-0323-0623-09 27 23 2020 24 2020 2020 8 20 12 12 28 2021 2 22 2021 3;21 2021 4-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.0:-60-40-2002040602017-022017-052017-082017-112018-022018-052018-082018-112019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-11:28 70 21 4 9 2023 8 6 2021 2022 2023 3 4 7 24 7 24 6.1 8 25 2016 8 31 20%30%LPR 20 LPR 29 20 60%50%80%70%7 5 1 1 2 5 1 1 2 1 2 5 1 3 3 1 2 5 1 5 5 2 3 5 35%40%35%30%40%70%30%30%50%60%30%60%80%50%70%1 50%2 70%3 70%40%70%80%LPR+55BP LPR+35BP LPR-10BP LPR+30BP LPR+105BP LPR+105BP LPR+60BP LPR+30BP LPR+60BP 30 1 1.0 2 140 3 3.96/468/3.168/374.4/2.376/280.8/1 2 140 3 1.44 450/310/230/1 1.0 2 144 144 3 1.2 1.2 1 1.0 2 120 144 3 750 6.2 9 9 26 12 5 9 20 9 6 8 9 9 1 9 4 9 7 31 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 11 9 11 9 11 120 9 11 9 12 9 15()()9 19 9 19 9 19 9 20 2 2 1 9 25 9 26 144 144 32 7 8 湘财证券投资评级体 系（市场比较基准为沪深 300 指数）6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%重要声明 分析师声明
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