20231122_东方证券_国防军工行业2024年度投资策略景气度确定性复苏新增长极逐步落地_60页.pdf

|2023 11 17-4.38%-2.48%300-7.84%2023Q3 1.34pct 0.90pct 23 23+6.39%-3.02%23Q3 2023 2023 FY2024&(300114)(600760)(000768)(600893)(600038)(600316)(002179)(002025)(688439)(000733)(600372)(688122)(600399)(300034)(600765)(300775)(605123)(300855)(002985)(300699)(600862)(000738)(600391)(300101)(002465)(002446)(001270)(688270)(688375)(688385)(002049)(300455)(600879)(002025)(300762)(000768)(600760)(600038)(600765)(600862)(300775)2.0YCXyRsPsRoPpRtQtOpQpObRdNbRpNnNtRsRkPnMrQlOpNoNaQpOoQMYsQwONZrRsN 3.4.6%.7.8.5.6.3 2023Q3.5.7 2023 2024+.8 FY2022 23 24+.9 FY2022-24.7.8 1 1.1 2023 1719 2020 21 5 21 2022 22 22 23 23 3 23 6 7 2023 11 17-4.38%-2.48%300-7.84%27 12 2023 15537 7.2%Wind-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%300 9 Wind Wind 2023 3 5 11 17 2023 28 5 18-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002008-11-172009-03-232009-07-222009-11-242010-03-292010-07-292010-12-032011-04-112011-08-082011-12-092012-04-182012-08-162012-12-182013-04-262013-08-292014-01-032014-05-122014-09-052015-01-122015-05-182015-09-152016-01-182016-05-232016-09-212017-01-242017-06-022017-09-272018-01-302018-06-072018-10-112019-02-142019-06-182019-10-212020-02-242020-06-242020-10-292021-03-032021-07-052021-11-082022-03-112022-07-142022-11-162023-03-212023-07-24收盘价 27.32x 48.25x 69.18x 90.11x 111.04x 10 4 2022 11 17 PE TTM Wind 5 2023 11 17 PE TTM Wind 1.2 2023Q3 23Q2 1.34pct 0.90pct 21 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 20.91%0.59pct 23Q3 23Q3 0.90pct 0.44pct 6%020406080100120140160180()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()050100150200250300350400450500()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()11 2023Q3 23Q3 91 23Q2 44 13.11%2.17pct 23Q3 227 23Q2 19 32.51%4.75pct 23Q3 380 23Q3 125 54.38%2.59pct 7 2023Q3 2023Q2 3.56pct 23Q3 334 23Q2 58 47.73%3.56pct 23Q3 365 23Q2 130 52.27%3.56pct 8 0.96%0.76%0.78%0.98%2.70%3.23%2.50%2.95%3.78%4.89%4.44%4.33%5.57%5.04%3.41%3.77%3.18%1.76%1.62%1.72%1.82%2.33%2.56%2.09%2.21%2.42%2.71%2.33%2.42%2.66%2.58%2.44%2.43%2.28%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%02004006008001000120014001600主动基金军工重仓市值 主动基金：军工重仓市值/全部 重仓 市 值 军工市值/全A 市值26%34%28%14%14%15%16%14%13%13%11%9%9%9%13%15%13%23%20%29%28%26%23%23%25%21%20%22%25%21%26%32%28%33%51%46%43%58%61%62%62%60%67%67%68%66%70%65%55%57%54%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%零部件市值占比 分系统市值占比 总装市值占比 12 2023Q3/Q3 20/2023Q3。1 1 2023Q3 Q3 Q3 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 2 2023Q3%Q3 Q3 1 1 32%31%35%53%55%52%54%53%53%53%52%50%56%55%54%44%48%68%69%65%47%45%48%46%47%47%47%48%50%44%45%46%56%52%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%集团军工市值占比 民参军市值占比 13 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 2023Q3 11 13 3 2023Q3 Q3 Q3 2 23 2023 128 128 a b c 9 128 14 1 2 3 2019*ST 4 20Q1 33.90 5 20 21 112 2.1 23 23 6.39%3.02%15 10 2017A2023Q3 11 2017A2023Q3 Wind Wind 23 7.88%0.80%9.45%22 7.88%0.80%9.45%18 157.51+48.41%324.54+25.01%263.08+17.38%346.31+14.38%23 23 3.92%12.96%23 17.31%2.93+504.10%1.42+58.90%23.64+35.85%8.04+22.31%4.12+43.01%12 13 Wind Wind 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%05001000150020002500300035004000450050002018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q3-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0501001502002503003504004502018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q3 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q3 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2023Q3 16 14 15 Wind Wind 23Q3 23Q3 2.28%-16.92%23Q3 7.32%-25.34%2022Q3 22Q4 23Q3 22.67%1.67+433.46%1.25+185.37%0.28+65.22%8.71+40.16%2.38+36.71%16 17 Wind Wind 23 23 2.42pct 2.25pct 20.28%8.96%0.31pct 4.12%18 19-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q3-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2023Q3-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q3 17 Wind Wind 23 20 21 Wind Wind&23 23 40.96%1.51pct 1 2&1.48pct 17.84%18Q3 23 0.87pct 1.96%+0.12pct 23 23 29.87%1.24pct 19.23%1.31pct 0.90pct 8.46%23 23 10.98%0.53pct 6.17%0.14pct 23 12.01%13.90%17.06%20.42%21.25%20.28%7.68%8.96%10.84%11.54%11.04%8.96%4.09%3.61%3.98%3.80%3.37%4.12%0%5%10%15%20%25%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q3 12.22%14.44%17.01%21.08%22.70%20.28%6.44%7.69%9.11%11.01%11.21%8.96%3.72%3.51%4.12%4.48%3.81%4.12%0%5%10%15%20%25%2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2023Q3 32.17%36.55%39.27%40.56%42.47%40.96%27.25%28.74%29.36%30.86%31.11%29.87%11.97%11.51%11.19%11.19%10.45%10.98%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2023Q3 17.80%19.11%18.16%16.98%16.36%17.84%18.90%19.59%18.53%17.63%17.92%19.23%7.53%7.45%6.51%6.07%6.03%6.17%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2023Q3 18 22 23 Wind Wind=24 25 Wind Wind 23 23 23 20 22 7.71%23 20.60%15.48pct 11.64%&1.21%4.80%23.38%23 23 16.55%23 23 2.87%3.60%3.98%3.36%2.89%2.62%2.74%7.67%7.47%7.21%6.70%6.17%6.56%0.34%0.64%0.60%0.39%-0.49%-0.38%6.18%7.02%6.99%7.00%8.05%8.92%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2023Q3 2.98%3.32%2.81%2.68%2.64%2.61%9.04%8.72%7.90%7.78%7.63%8.17%1.56%1.36%1.11%0.45%0.09%-0.01%5.32%6.19%6.72%6.71%7.56%8.46%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2023Q3 1.22%1.18%1.08%0.92%0.93%1.00%5.23%4.89%4.00%3.66%3.47%3.43%-0.09%0.10%-0.10%-0.33%-0.52%-0.47%1.17%1.28%1.53%1.83%2.15%2.22%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2023Q3 1.98%1.89%2.83%1.53%1.84%1.96%2.29%1.16%1.41%1.23%1.75%1.48%0.28%0.16%0.24%0.38%0.48%0.24%0%1%1%2%2%3%3%2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2023Q3 19 26 27 Wind Wind 28 29 Wind Wind 2.2 23 20 22 23 22 69.52%5.48pct 23 75.00%21 23 15.69pct 63.00%20 23-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q3-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2023Q3-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q3-100%-50%0%50%100%150%2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2023Q3 20 30 31 Wind Wind 23 22 6.71%1.63%24.19 0.02 6.82 1.17 5.52-0.56 1.51-1.39 2.32 23.86%21.50%-130.47 10.77%17.30%-482.43 23 23 1 2 32/33/Wind Wind 34/35/40%60%80%100%120%140%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q3 40%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%120%130%2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2023Q3-600-500-400-300-200-10001002003002018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q3-550-450-350-250-150-50502018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2023Q3 21 Wind Wind 2.3 23Q3 22 21 23Q3 25.61%618.82 23Q3 20.35%18.05%126.24 36()37()Wind Wind&23Q3 23Q3 2.17%21.96%10.55%5.48pct 0.12pct 4.11pct 3.14pct 15.54pct 12.96pct 38 39 243 277 286 460 549 586 407 458 515 700 631 782 747 834 772 1504 1181 1054 020040060080010001200140016002018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2023Q3 269 283 304 446 552 561 440 500 538 711 751 912 829 932 980 1520 1310 1536 05001000150020002018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2023Q3 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%010020030040050060070080090010002019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q3/0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%01002003004005006007008009002018Q32019Q32020Q32021Q32022Q32023Q3/22 Wind Wind 40 41 Wind Wind&23Q3 2.50pct 25.30%14.68pct 26.17%28.48pct 22.74%42 43 Wind Wind 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%02004006008001000120014002019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q3/0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%02004006008001000120014002018Q32019Q32020Q32021Q32022Q32023Q3/0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%02004006008001000120014002019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q3&/&/&/0%50%100%150%0500100015002018Q32019Q32020Q32021Q32022Q32023Q3&/&/&/-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q3-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2023Q3 23 44 45 Wind Wind 3 23 23 3.1 2007 2022 24%25%2004 2022 23%16%2018 2022 74%2020 2021 46 24%25%数据来源：Wind，东方证券 研究所-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q3-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2023Q3 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0501001502002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/24 47 2018-2022 数据来源：Wind，东方证券 研究所 23 23 0722 1 2 48 0722 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%01020304050607080902015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/25 Wind 2023 PE 1 PE=/2 PE=/Wind 49 2010 26 Wind 2010 25x40 x 20 x25x 2012H22013H1 2014H1 20 x25x 1 2012 2%13 13 20%1415 12 2012 2013 20 x25x 2 20172019 10%15%25x40 x 1314 20 x25x 1 10%20%1314 20 x25x 2 25x35x 1618 1618 1618 1618 25x40 x 25x35x 0102030405060708090002179 002025 27 2020 2022 2023 2023 10 31 Wind 25x 21 5 1015 2030 1 2 3 3.2 24 1 2018 2022 40%68%1 2017 2022 34%42%3 2017 2022 31%57%4 2018 2022 45%69%5 2018 2022 94%139%6 2017 2022 33%18%50 2016-2023Q3 51 2016-2023Q3 28 alpha beta alpha beta 数据来源：Wind，东方证券 研究所 数据来源：Wind，东方证券 研究 所 52 2018-2023Q3 53 2018-2023Q3 数据来源：Wind，东方证券 研究 所 数据来源：Wind，东方证券 研究 所 54 2018-2023Q3 55 2018-2023Q3 数据来源：Wind，东方证券 研究 所 数据来源：Wind，东方证券 研究 所-40%10%60%110%160%01020304050营收/亿 归母净利润/亿 归母净利润同比-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%05101520253035营收/亿 归母净利润/亿 归母净利润同比-200%-100%0%100%200%0204060802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3营收/亿 归母净利润/亿 归母净利润同比0%20%40%60%80%100%0246810122018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3营收/亿 归母净利润/亿 归母净利润同比-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%(2)024682018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3营收/亿 归母净利润/亿 归母净利润同比-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%(2)02468102018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3营收/亿 归母净利润/亿 营收同比 29 alpha beta 2019 2019 1.3 1.6 2020 2022 134%100%46%2023 2023 2018 2023Q3 beta alpha 2022 2023Q3 43%/35%41%/41%71%/75%10%/8%11%/-3%alpha 21 alpha beta 56 Wind 57-50%0%50%100%150%200%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3西部超导利润增速 紫光国微利润增速 行业利润增速 30 3 5 5 PE TTM PE alpha 2001 2013 2013 2019 49%70 x 43x 2020 2020 99x 99%2021 95x 142%2022 61x 35%2023 32x 10 21x 2023 0%2020 2022 Wind-0.200.20.40.60.812018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3华秦科技利润增速 图南股份利润增速 振华风光利润增速钢研高纳利润增速 行业利润增速 31 58 2013 PE TTM Wind 2019 2020 2 2021 65x 100%2022 52x 46%2023 35x 8 26x 2023-32%3 alpha 59 PE TTM Wind alpha 2009 20 2009 2017 67x 37x 2018 2009 2017 5%2017 2021 51%2017 2021 63x 37x 2022 32 2022 2023 10%8%68x 37x 37x 2 alpha 60 2013 PE TTM Wind alpha 4 alpha alpha 11 8 alpha beta 2024 2023 4 FY2024 FY2024 8420 22&33 4.1 FY2024 8420 2023 3 13 FY2024 8420 FY23 260 3.2%FY22 998 13.4%FY22 23 FY24 FY28 FY23 8340 9150 61 FY2001-2024 FY2024 Defense Budget Overview 62 FY2024 FY2024 U.S.DOD Budget Request 2022 2023 2024 FY2024 2022 0100200300400500600700800900base other 34(Kathleen Hicks)2022 FY24(pacific deterrence initiative)FY24 153 40 26%53 28 22 11 FY21 22 FY22 23 47 61 FY24 91 40%FY24 50 36 6.01 2.93 3 FY24 2558 2592 17.3%16.3%1853 6.4%FY24 FY22 28.7%28.8%30.4%30.8%1.6pct 22%4 FY2024 63 FY2024%/FY 2022 Actuals FY 2023 Enacted FY 2024 Request 174.1 184.9 185.3 220.1 243 255.8 221 246.8 259.2 127 141.3 141.7 742.2 816 842 29.1 31.6 32.8 10.6 11 11.5 781.9 858.6 886.3 FY2024 U.S.DOD Budget Request FY2024 U.S.DOD Budget Request 2024 2558 35 F-35 1 2 2 2 1,185.3,22.0%,255.8,30.4%,259.2,30.8%,141.7,16.8%35 1 9 139 2024 2592 48 5 F-35A 24 F-15E 15 KC-46A 550 27 2024 15%GPS(Next-gen OPIR)26 2024 1853 2030 82%(RDT&E)4.2 FY2024 22 FY2024 20 80 2025 2035 20 FY2024 377 B-21 53 62 LGM-35A 43 FY2024 FY2023(MDD)298 21%(GMD)(NGI)-3(THAAD)(IBCS)THAAD 5 FY2022 Actual FY2023 Enacted FY2024 Request B-21-29-48-53 52-63 1 62(LRSO)-6-10-10 LGM-35A-25-36-43 56 8 71 11 39 8 36(SM-3 IIA SM-3 IB)BMD-7-8-9-16-26-31(THAAD)32 6 18 5 11 5-3(PAC-3)-8-8-12-3 MSE 328 13 252 10 230 12 FY2024 U.S.DOD Budget Request 4.3 FY2024 FY2024 3150 FY2024 4.3%1450 1700 FY24 FY2024 46%FY2020 2.5%64 FY2020-24 FY2024 U.S.Defense Budget Overview 1 Aircraft&Related Systems 2 C4I Systems 3 Ground Systems 4 Missile Defense Programs 5 Missiles&Munitions 6 Shipbuilding&Maritime Systems 7 Space Based Systems 8 Science and Technology 9 Mission Support Activities 6 FY2024 65 FY2024%1023 104711771389 1450133113661469163217000500100015002000250030003500FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 37 184 427 611 19%C41 63 82 145 5%30 108 139 4%106 41 148 5%109 198 306 10%57 425 481 15%209 51 261 8%178 0 178 6%513 369 881 28%1450 1700 3150 100%数据来源：美国 国防预 算武器 采办，东 方证券研 究所 611 481 20.3%20.3%23.9%4.3.1 F-35 FY2024 611 19%46 8.14%FY2024 310 F-22 FY2024 310 32 F-22 F-22 F-35 F-15X F-22 FY2024 F-35 F-35 136 40%F-35 4(Block4)(F-35C)(F-35B&C)(F-35A)83 FY2024 24 F-15EX(TACAIR)FY2024 15 KC-46 KC-135 KC-10(NGAS)NGAS 23 35.29%(UAS)VC-25B B-21 E-7 19%C41 5%4%5%10%15%8%6%28%38 7 2023 2024+FY 2023 FY2024 F 35 77 119 83 136 F-15EX 24 27 24 30 Air Force NGAD-17-23 KC-46A 15 26 15 30 P 8A-2-2 F/A-18E/F 8 21-18 CH-53K 12 23 15 22 E 2D AHE 7 18-8 AH 64E 33 8 42 9 UH 60 63 12 50 9 VH-92A-8-10 V 22 5 11-6 MQ-4 2 8 3 10 MQ-25-4 4 12 MQ-9 12 7 5 5 E-7-4-7 TBD 9 2 12 3 317 340 数据来源：，东方证 券研究 所 66 FY2010-24 67 2024 611 美国 国防预 算武器 采办，东 方证券研 究所 美国 国防预 算武器 采办，东 方证券研 究所 4.3.2 FY2024 481 15%143 186 33 67 22 30 9(BFS)3(CVN-79)(CVN-80)(CVN-81)2 DDG-51 2(FFG-62)2(VPM)Block V 1 1 536 554 542 476 455 400 488 453 499 552 577 569 524 565 611 0100200300400500600700 256 96 92 52 45 44 26 39(TAO)1 U.S.S.COLUMBIA(SSBN)U.S.S.STENNIS(RCOH)美国 国防预 算武器 采办，东 方证券研 究所 美国 国防预 算武器 采办，东 方证券研 究所 4.3.3 FY2024 261 8%FY24 2020 FY2024 20%224 251 242 226 233 220 256 270 304 331 347 322 346 408 481 0100200300400500600 186 143 67 33 30&22 40 美国 国防预 算武器 采办，东 方证券研 究所 美国 国防预 算武器 采办，东 方证券研 究所 FY2024(Next-gen OPIR)/(ESS)/(NSSL)NSSL 10 5 8 FY2022 23 24+FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 RDT&E GPS RDT&E RDT&E RDT&E 美国 国防预 算武器 采办，东 方证券研 究所(STATCOM)RDT&E FY2023 14.1 FY2024 41.5 RDT&E 5.9 RDT&E 14.1 30%STACOM 111 99 102 80 80 72 71 71 98 93 119 155 167 217 261 050100150200250300 72 47 47 28 6 4 41 SATCOM 4.3.4 C4I C4I FY2024 145 5%C4I(TNT)(HMS)(JRSS)(ISSP)(NAOC)(CANES)(IPPS-A)C4I FY2023 FY2024 13.28%5G 美国 国防预 算武器 采办，东 方证券研 究所 美国 国防预 算武器 采办，东 方证券研 究所 4.3.5 FY2024 139 4%(AMPV)M-113(ACV)(AAV)M1A2 M1A2C M109A7 155mm(PIM)10511110982706674 7486100102119127128145020406080100120140160 2 18 31 37 56 1 42(JLTV)(FHTV)(FMTV)74 FY2010-24 75 2024 139 4.3.6 FY2024 148 5%FY2023 20.33%FY2024 3 Block IB IIA 3(PAC-3)(THAAD)(NGI)44(GBI)2024 FY MDA-76 FY2010-24 77 2024 148 4.3.7 26323316110984638298112159146130123126139050100150200250300 5 16 68 34 4 12 91 99 101 90 85 82 88 85 92 120 116 116 109 123 148 020406080100120140160 11 92 8 31 6 43 FY2024 306 10%(PGM)(PGM)2024 24%2022 51%FY2024 2024 AIM-120D(AMRAAM)AGM-158B(JASSM)AGM-158C(LRASM)-6(SM-6)(JDAM)AGM-114 GBU-39(GMLRS)(PrSM)II D5(SLBM)(GBSD)B61-12(LRSO)78 FY2010-24 79 2024 306 9 FY2022-24 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 70 3.99 68 7.82 34 8.12 525 7.11 550 7.86 550 16.86 48 1.61 83 3.26 118 8.27 101 1.58 154 2.33 2.45(PrSM)54 1.66 42 1.63 3.84(AARGM-ER)54 1.09 98 1.81 1.96 1762 2.28 876 1.16 0.30(JAGM)559 1.94 922 2.94 3.83 125 129 110 103 92 90 119 139 164 207 216 213 203 247 306 050100150200250300350 56 171 73 6 44 I(SDB I)793 0.65 356 0.47 0.49 II(SDB II)1140 3.10 1659 4.80 3.58(JDAM)944 0.97 7237 3.28 2.06 6374 9.39 5954 13.19 9.51 7106 15.94 628 4.48 2.54 AIM-9X 382 1.81 383 1.74 1.74 AIM-120 395 4.00 608 6.56 11.41 美国 国防预 算武器 采办，东 方证券研 究所 4.3.8 AI 5G FY2024 178 6%2024(AI)5G 2024 80 FY2010-24 4.3.9 2024 881 28%RDT&E(DPA)117 118 120 119 120 115 124 125 132 137 141 141 147 165 178 0204060801001201401601802002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 45 5 FY2024-C919 5.1 2022+81 SpaceX 2019 2020 5 2020 10 1.5 2022 12 2(SpaceX)(Starshield)(Starlink)3 1.5 46 82 SpaceX 2019 20s 2021/数据来源：“星 链”星 座军事 化应用 浅 析（黄杰 等），东方证 券研究 所 47 GW G60 2023 7 9 2023 7 25 G60 11 2023 11 9)GW)12922-G60 1