资源描述
2024 5 23 本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。同时请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。18521081258SAC S1440519030001SFC BOT812 18817875613SAC S1440523070004 17717092294SAC S1440521100001 2 1 2 3 3C 4 Temu YWDWuNrMoNmNoQsRsPsNmNaQbP6MtRpPpNmQeRqQsPeRoMmQ9PnNuMNZqNpPNZsQpO3/1 2 3 SHEIN/1 2023 B2C GMV 3258/+12.8%25%/31%/38%/45%B2C GMV 748/+13.2%859/+12.1%2 2023 B2C GMV 7738/+23.2%3213/+24.1%/+12.8%GMV/+11.6%/3C&23/36%/39%/44%/46%23/6.8%/7.5%/9.7%/5.1%1-2 2-5 2023 B2C 2039/+15.1%/44.6%20%-30%FBA Temu 24 PE 21.6X 24 PE 17.8X 24 PE 12.0X 24 4+4 18-23 14.7%25.2%2023 B2C GMV 3258/+12.8%B2C 23 GMV 748/+13.2%859/+12.1%23.0%26.4%B2C GMV B2C GMV 2023 B2C GMV 3258/+12.8%25%GMV 748/+13.2%859/+12.1%B2C GMV 1,456 1,824 2,148 2,603 2,889 3,258 25.3%17.8%21.2%11.0%12.8%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%-500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,5002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023全球家具家居类B2C电商市场GMV（亿美元）yoy280 355 474 579 661 748 26.8%33.5%22.2%14.2%13.2%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%-100 200 300 400 500 600 700 8002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023美国家具家居类B3C 电商市场GMV（亿美元）yoy380 492 557 690 766 859 29.5%13.2%23.9%11.0%12.1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%-100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023欧洲家具家居类B4C 电商市场GMV（亿美元）yoy+Xp2vb+VTukQPHC5YYFbMZKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MNuxrtg2fCGr+Xhx9nZ71wG 5 B2C GMV 7738/+23.2%3213/+24.1%Wayfair 315/+25.0%238/+61.9%2023 B2C GMV 7738/+23.2%3213/+24.1%/+12.8%1,582 2,412 4,300 5,203 6,280 7,738 52.5%78.3%21.0%20.7%23.2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023基于中国卖家的海外家具家居类B2C 电商市场GMV（亿元）yoy497 784 1,610 2,058 2,590 3,213 57.7%105.4%27.8%25.9%24.1%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%-500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,5002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023亚马逊平台上基于中国卖家的海外家具家居类B2C电商市场GMV（亿元）yoy84 119 189 217 252 315 41.7%58.8%14.8%16.1%25.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%-50 100 150 200 250 300 3502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Wayfair 平台上基于中国卖家的海外家具家居类B2C 电商市场GMV（亿元）yoy28 147 238 425.0%61.9%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%450%-50 100 150 200 2502021 2022 2023沃尔玛平台上基于中国卖家的海外家具家居类B2C电商市场GMV（亿元）yoy 6 Marketplace pulse Shein(代工生产商 卖家 零售平台中国售卖/推广 中国制造 SKU B2C 20 2023 CR5 5.1%B2C 15 2023 CR5 2.9%B2C CR5 5.1%B2C CR5 2.9%按GMV排名全球家具家居类B2C 电商市 场 2023年1 公司A（宜家）3.9%2 公司B 0.4%3 公司C 0.3%4 公司D 0.3%5 傲基科技 0.2%按GMV排名基于中国卖家的家具家居 类B2C 海外电商市场2023 年1 傲基科技 0.7%2 公司E（致欧科技）0.6%3 公司F 0.6%4 公司G 0.6%5 公司H 0.4%中国渠道已实现 尚未实现品牌中国品牌摸索中前行 7 3C&85.859.7125.755.663.354.6142.549.170.360.7175.165.6020406080100120140160180200 2021 2022 202320.8%37.0%39.2%32.6%31.6%36.3%35.7%38.7%43.5%62.7%65.6%45.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2021 2022 2023傲基科技 致欧科技 安克创新 赛维时代公司 细分领域 品牌数傲基科技 家具过1亿级GMV品牌为11个（整体品牌数量预计几十上百个）致欧科技 家具 3大品牌安克创新 3C 6大品牌赛维时代 服饰4个十亿级品牌，20+亿级品牌，70+千万级品牌-6.5%3.1%6.0%-6.9%3.3%7.5%4.0%4.6%6.8%8.2%8.3%9.7%6.3%3.8%5.1%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2021 2022 2023傲基科技（整体）傲基科技（商品销售）致欧科技 安克创新赛维时代 公司 供应链模式 供应商数量傲基科技 选品/他供 810家（23年）致欧科技 选品/他供-安克创新赛维时代 选品/他供 3361家（21年）8 Temu eMarketer ECDB yipit data Temu 27.930.441.342.54445.122.724.834.835.937.438.417.719.730.6 30.8 30.6 30.711.712.820.821.822.2 22.4051015202530354045502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023全 球 电商 渠道 占整 体 零售 比例（%），分品 类消费电子 家电 服装鞋类 家居16.515.6024681012141618美 国 电商 渠道 占整 体 零售 比例（%）-季调47.0%31.9%30.6%30.0%15.8%14.2%14.0%13.7%13.2%11.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%各 国 电商渠道占整体 零售比例（2022年12月）3014030013650001002003004005006002020 2023E 2024ETemu 和Tik Tok 等新渠道GMV 快速增长（单 位：亿美元）Temu Tik Tok Shop 9 23 2039/+15.1%44.6%/+12.4%486 615 972 1,782 1,771 2,039 26.5%58.0%83.3%-0.6%15.1%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%-500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,5002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023中国B2C出口电商物流解决方案-海外仓模式市场收入（亿元）yoy883 1,086 1,440 2,268 2,253 2,532 23.0%32.6%57.5%-0.7%12.4%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%-500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023中国B2C 出口电商物流解决方案-直邮模式市场收入（亿元）yoy 2023 B2C 2039/+15.1%44.6%2532/+12.4%/B2C B2C 1-2 2-5 10 Temu 24 3 Temu Temu 全托管模式Temu 半托管模式卖家 Temu 仓库 美国购物者卖家 美国仓库 美国购物者中国库存中国库存 美国库存美国库存 GMV 4 31.5%36.5%39.0%42.5%44.1%46.5%48.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E主 要 第三方平台电商 上中国卖家GMV占比中国卖家GMV 占比 GMV 40%Temu Tiktok Marketplace pulse 1170135019002100 2100220016002000300039004300480015.4%40.7%10.5%0.0%4.8%25.0%50.0%30.0%10.3%11.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01000200030004000500060002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023亚 马 逊全球GMV（单位：亿美 元）自营销售 第三方销售 自营-yoy 第三方-yoy GMV 11 2023 FBA 25%-30%36.6%36.5%36.4%2.7%3.1%7.8%2.6%2.8%2.9%2.0%2.2%2.7%20.1%16.8%17.0%14.6%13.7%13.3%2.8%2.0%2.2%2.1%1.8%3.2%4.6%9.6%4.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%201920202021跨境电商公司各环节占收 入比重（以致 欧科技 为例）产品采购 头程 海运费 关税 境外二程 运输费电商平台交易费 广告费 仓储费 其他费用 净利润30.9%9.3%16.2%4.4%6.0%9.1%3.8%5.6%2.2%2.5%41.8%12.3%11.5%6.7%6.0%5.4%5.0%3.7%2.4%1.5%0%10%20%30%40%&2022 2021 22 42%25%-30%2024 2 5 FBA 包裹重量 调整前计费标准 调整前配送费 调整后计费标准 调整后配送费 配送费变化41磅/18.6kg$9.73+超出首磅部分每磅$0.42$26.53$26.33+超出首磅部分每磅$0.38$41.53+$15101磅/45.8kg$19.05+超出首磅的部分每磅$0.42$61.05$54.81+超出首重 71 磅部分每磅$0.75$77.31+$16.26 FBA 2024.2.5 59 33 33+130/50/22.7kg 223.5280.1374.4412.1537.4632.610.5%11.2%12.0%15.1%18.8%19.0%0%5%10%15%20%01000200030002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021中 国 跨境电商出口B2C市场按 类别划分GMV（亿元)服饰及鞋履 消费电子产品家居产品 其他户外体育用品 家居产品占比 21 B2C GMV 19%12 23 CR5 7.2%2023 Statista 63992511787151008166141.0%64.9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%05001000150020002020 2021 2022海外仓数量（个）海外仓面积（万平）面积yoy按海外仓模式收入排名中国B2C 出口电商物流解决方案提供商2023年1 易可达 2.0%2 递四方 1.6%3 万邑通 1.5%4 深圳西邮智仓（24 亿收入）1.2%5 无忧达 0.9%6 运去哪 0.5%7 易达云 0.5%8 乐歌乐仓 0.5%9 文鼎海外仓 0.2%10 出口易 0.2%B2C CR5 7.2%22.7%17.8%14.6%42.5%2.9%3.4%12.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2020 2021 2022 2023海 外 仓业务毛利率傲基科技 乐歌股份 5.415.756.096.326.828.19.726.3%5.9%3.8%7.9%18.8%20.0%0%5%10%15%20%25%0246810122017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023仓储物流用地平均租金（美元/平方英尺）yoy 每月平均运费（折扣前）折扣率=HKD 4700 45折HKD 2000HKD 4700 5折HKD 1700HKD 2000 55折HKD 1600HKD 1700 6折HKD 1600 65折 FedEx 13亚马逊入仓分销网络（AWD）SC VC SC VC VC 头程物流 仓储分拨 尾端派送 顾客工厂和供应商批量存储 履约中心全球供应商本土供应商亚马逊合作承运人亚马逊全球物流（AGL）多渠道分拨（MCD）亚马逊物流（FBA）多渠道配送（MCF）卖家仓库其他销售渠道亚马逊物流（Amazon shipping）亚马逊商店顾客其他渠道顾客进驻方式 发货方式 定价权 货权Sold by AmazonAmazon Prime营销资源 店铺流量 账期 平台费用SC 卖家账号(Seller Central).自行注册 FBA/FBM自主定价卖家 否FBA模式FBM模式一般 较低 较短 较高VC账号（Vendor Central）邀请制DF（直接从海外仓发货配送至买家）PO（从海外仓发货至亚马逊FBA仓，再由亚马逊配送至买家）DI（直接在产地交付给亚马逊，海运费由亚马逊负责）亚马逊 亚马逊 是 有 较好 较高 较长 较低 66%57%68%64%64%15%14%29%34%21%21%22%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023只用FBA 只用FBM 二者都有 14(SCFI)1000/1500/2000/2500 USD/TEU 3%/4%/5%/6%SSE 5 17 SCFI-156.33%USD/TEU 5 17 SCFI-250.57%USD/TEU 5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0001 6 2 6 3 6 4 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 8 6 9 6 10 6 11 6 12 6 2017 2018 2019 2023 20245001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5001 6 2 6 3 6 4 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 8 6 9 6 10 6 11 6 12 6 2017 2018 2019 2023 2024 SCFI-811,2.91%1265,3.32%3792,8.49%4479,10.48%y=2E-05x+0.00960%2%4%6%8%10%12%0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000y：海 运费 占跨境电商家 居公司收入比 重x：SCFI 运价 综合 指数（单 位：USD/TEU）SCFI-历史数据时间 2019 2020 2021 22H1SCFI运价综合指数均值（单位：USD/TEU）811 1265 3792 4479海运费占主营业务收入比重2.91%3.32%8.49%10.48%测算数据SCFI运价综合指数（单位：USD/TEU）1000 1500 2000 2500海运费占主营业务收入比重2.96%3.96%4.96%5.96%本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。同时请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。16/2010 SONGMICS VASAGLE FEANDREA 17 SKU SONGMICS 20-80 2022/440.15 408.77 239.4 225.8 166.4 SONGMICS Cabinet Organizer Shelf 9067$163,115.33$17.99-24.59SONGMICS Folding Storage Ottoma Bench 6141$386,821.59$62.99 SONGMICS Clothes Rack 5919$201,186.81$30.06-49.99SONGMICS Jewelry Box 5113$204,468.87$39.99 SONGMICS Shoe Rack 5065$86,560.85$17.99 SONGMICS Skirt Hangers 4987$174,495.13$34.99 VASAGLE Shoe Rack 4940$177,790.60$35.99 VASAGLE Laundry Hamper 3958$277,020.42$69.99 SONGMICS Velvet Hangers 3443$103,255.57$29.99 SONGMICS Clothes Drying Rack 3295$263,567.05$79.99 SONGMICS Closet Wardrobe 3067$177,855.33$57.99 SONGMICS Watch Box 2414$51,273.36$21.24 Feandrea Cat Tree 1827$121,477.23$69.99 SONGMICS Pet Playpen 1675$51,238.25$35.99 SONGMICS Luggage Rack 1646$65,823.54$39.99 SONGMICS Shoe Box 1396$37,678.04$29.99 18 2018-2023 CAGR 30.7%59.0%2024Q1 45.3%1,5952,325.63,971.05,967.45,455.46,074.21,841.641108.0380.2239.8 250.1412.9100.5-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%010002000300040005000600070002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24Q1致 欧 科技营收及业绩（百万元）营收 归母净利润 营收yoy 归母净利润yoy1,427 1,382 1,310 1,337 1,267 1,376 1,492 1,938 1,842 51.4 58.9 61.0 78.7 87.4 98.5 100.5 126.4 100.5-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0500100015002000250022Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1致 欧 科技单季度营收 及业绩（百万元）营收 归母净利润 营收yoy 归母净利润yoy55.8%37.9%32.6%31.6%36.3%36.0%4.6%9.6%4.0%4.6%6.8%5.5%25.3%29.1%15.6%13.8%13.2%3.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24Q1致 欧 科技 盈利 能力毛利率 净利率 ROE（摊薄）43.0%20.7%22.0%22.0%23.2%24.4%5.0%4.6%3.4%4.0%5.0%4.6%0.2%0.2%1.6%-0.2%-0.4%1.4%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24Q1致欧科技费用率销售费用率 管理费用率 财务费用率 19+1 36%-37%2 28%-30%0.5%3%21 7.8%3%2%17%-20%FBA 3 13%-15%B2C 16%-17%36.6%36.5%36.4%0.3%0.5%0.5%2.7%3.1%7.8%2.6%2.8%2.9%2.0%2.2%2.7%20.1%16.8%17.0%14.6%13.7%13.3%4.6%9.6%4.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%201920202021致 欧 科 技价 值链 拆分产品采购 头程 海运费 关税 境外二程 运输费 电商平台交易费 广告费 仓储费 其他费用 归母净利润 20 23 37.6%44.6%7.7%8.5%2023/+5%/+22%/+37%/-12%23 23 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 1,594.7 2,325.6 3,971.0 5,967.4 5,455.4 6,074.2 yoy 45.8%70.8%50.3%-8.6%11.3%56.5%55.8%37.9%32.6%31.7%36.3%56.5%55.8%54.8%49.6%48.1%54.1%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A1.649.0 1,007.1 1,968.8 3,092.4 2,586.4 2,710.4 yoy 55.2%95.5%57.1%-16.4%4.8%2.611.9 891.5 1,362.9 1,876.7 1,868.4 2,285.2 yoy 45.7%52.9%37.7%-0.4%22.3%3.187.4 239.6 385.8 633.0 531.6 466.4 yoy 27.8%61.1%64.1%-16.0%-12.3%4.119.6 160.8 234.6 342.0 377.7 518.5 yoy 34.5%45.9%45.8%10.4%37.3%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 56.5 55.8 37.9 32.6 31.7 36.3 51.8 51.3 50.3 45.3 44.8 36.6 61.2 61.1 59.4 54.7 53.6 37.2 58.5 55.8 61.1 54.9 46.4 33.1 56.9 55.8 56.0 52.0 49.3 35.9 45.2 50.9 49.8 42.4 39.4 27.2 28.6 41.4 35.0 26.5 30.3 25.2 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A1.40.7%43.3%49.6%51.8%47.4%44.6%2.38.4%38.3%34.3%31.4%34.2%37.6%3.11.8%10.3%9.7%10.6%9.7%7.7%4.7.5%6.9%5.9%5.7%6.9%8.5%21,B2C 23 B2C&B2B Otto 1 B2C Cdiscount ManoMano eBay 23 SHEIN TikTok Shop Mercado Libre Fressnapf 2 B2B B2B B2B Vendor Wayfair 23 B2C 49.39/+14%OTTO 2.5/+81%B2B 10.45 B2B 23 4.2/+21%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 1,594.7 2,325.6 3,971.0 5,967.4 5,455.4 6,074.2 yoy 45.8%70.8%50.3%-8.6%11.3%56.5%55.8%37.9%32.6%31.7%36.3%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023AB2C 1,505.9 2,020.1 3,290.7 4,815.1 4,330.8 4,938.8yoy 34.1%62.9%46.3%-10.1%14.0%1,423.9 1,884.0 2,849.0 4,044.1 3,635.9 4,101.8 yoy 32.3%51.2%41.9%-10.1%12.8%ManoMano 15.3 41.5 122.0 172.5 144.4 yoy 172.4%193.7%41.4%-16.3%Cdiscount 40.1 47.4 92.9 109.6 79.9 yoy 18.4%95.8%18.0%-27.1%eBay 25.1 27.4 58.1 63.2 37.1 yoy 9.2%112.1%8.8%-41.3%1.6 19.8 168.7 425.8 433.6 yoy 1150.1%753.8%152.3%1.8%B2B 88.3 302.1 677.2 1,143.5 1,047.1 1,044.8yoy 242.1%124.2%68.9%-8.4%-0.2%62.6 195.2 335.3 557.6 449.0 yoy 211.7%71.8%66.3%-19.5%Wayfair 6.7 45.1 170.9 274.2 252.1 yoy 571.5%279.3%60.4%-8.1%B2B 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 yoy 137.7%-34.4%-69.5%25.8%B2B 17.7 58.8 171.0 311.7 346.1 420.0 yoy 232.3%191.0%82.3%11.0%21.4%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 56.47 55.8 37.92 32.64 31.65 36.32 B2C 59.56 54.79 53.51 37.81B2B 31.54 27.95 26.85 30.24 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023AB2B 5.5%13.0%17.1%19.2%19.2%17.2%B2C 94.4%86.9%82.9%80.7%79.4%81.3%89.3%81.0%71.7%67.8%66.6%67.5%22 23 Q4 96%2023 61.4%35.8%23 37.29/+21.6%23H1 23H2+1.4%+43.5%23H1 SKU&-17.37%23H2 23H2+11.79%Q4+36.4%2019-2021 0.26%0.44%0.69%0.14%0.23%0.35%0.26%0.44%0.69%0.14%0.23%0.35%0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%0.60%0.70%0.80%2019 2020 2021致欧科技在欧美市场电商 渠道市 占率欧洲家具用品电商渠道中市占率 美洲家具用品电商渠道中市占率 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 1,594.7 2,325.6 3,971.0 5,967.4 5,455.4 6,074.2 yoy 45.8%70.8%50.3%-8.6%11.3%56.5%55.8%37.9%32.6%31.7%36.3%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2,391.0 3,575.2 3,065.1 3,728.5yoy 49.5%-14.3%21.6%1,545.1 2,334.6 2,244.1 2,173.2yoy 51.1%-3.9%-3.2%30.9 39.9 46.5 48.0yoy 29.1%16.7%3.2%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 33.38 38.92 29.22 32.36 38.4 23 Marketplace Pulse 2022 2 28 Best Seller 2022 2 28 2021 928.84 9.05%3 1 2 9 1 6 5 2 3 6 1 2 48 3 17 27 2 1:2022 2 Best Seller 10 4 10 3 10 7 10 7 10 4 10 3 VASAGLE SONGMICS 10 5 PU 10 5 2022 29.05%0.03%0.01%0.07%5.24%4.94%5.97%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%ManoMano OTTO Cdiscount eBay Kaufland 致欧科技各平台复购率情 况2019 2020 202130.1628.7520.9312.0619.7928.8401002003004005006007008009001000051015202530352019 2020 2021公司在不同平台的用户数（万个）ManoMano OTTO CdiscounteBay Kaufland 亚马逊（右轴）24-Songmics 2525 42899.75 115811 500417.2 37.4%34.32%Songmics 1858 37141.42 2Songmics 1638 29467.62 3Songmics 1443 40389.57 4Songmics 1175 27953.25 8-Songmics 1981 65313.57 17285 238625.58 29.94%28.22%Songmics 945 28340.55 4Songmics 788 23632.12 5Songmics 752 12626.08 6Songmics 739 28259.36 7-Songmics 1096 76709.04 41967 120294.03 5.57%11.22%(Songmics 436 24411.64 19-Songmics 1428 52821.72 37849 285825.41 17.3%19.95%Songmics 710 21292.9 17-Feandrea 1267 97546.33 12462 199060.9814.89%21.3%Feandrea 520 36394.8 8 4.46%13.16%5.57%11.22%5.78%7.21%4.01%3.99%3.54%4.86%17.61%20.15%30.54%28.96%17.3%19.95%3.11%4.08%1.68%7.31%11.83%3.06%3.36%24.94%30.3%11.29%11.93%5.97%7.25%3.8%5.94%15.39%12.75%10.89%7.87%9.97%13.24%0.68%0.92%1.89%3.24%14.89%21.3%1.58%4.14%3.46%7.36%20%-30%sorftime 25 2021 41%+28 20.6 7.4 2019 20.2%2021 41%15%-16%24%-25%2019 20.1%2022 16.4%20.2%44.3%41.0%15.3%16.5%15.6%25.0%23.6%23.8%20.1%16.8%17.0%16.4%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2019 2020 2021 2022致欧科技运输费用率情况自发模式营收占比 自发模式运输费用率（右轴）B2C代发模式运输费用率（右轴）公司整体运输费用率（右轴）26 2024-2026 76.2 93.8 112.7 25.4%23.2%20.2%4.86 5.86 6.97 17.8%20.4%19.0%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 1,594.7 2,325.6 3,971.0 5,967.4 5,455.4 6,074.2 7,615.7 9,382.0 11,272.8yoy 45.8%70.8%50.3%-8.6%11.3%25.4%23.2%20.2%56.5%55.8%37.9%32.6%31.7%36.3%36.0%35.8%35.8%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 649.0 1,007.1 1,968.8 3,092.4 2,586.4 2,710.4 3,339.8 4,047.8 4,742.4yoy 55.2%95.5%57.1%-16.4%4.8%23.2%21.2%17.2%472.6 755.4 621.4 652.4 796.0 955.2 1,108.0yoy 59.9%-17.7%5.0%22.0%20.0%16.0%416.6 409.4 416.2 415.4 419.6 423.8 428.0yoy-1.7%1.7%-0.2%1.0%1.0%1.0%611.9 891.5 1,362.9 1,876.7 1,868.4 2,285.2 2,913.7 3,625.7 4,437.9yoy 45.7%52.9%37.7%-0.4%22.3%27.5%24.4%22.4%634.6 862.7 815.9 938.2 1,172.8 1,430.8 1,717.0yoy 35.9%-5.4%15.0%25.0%22.0%20.0%214.8 217.6 229.0 243.6 248.4 253.4 258.5yoy 1.3%5.3%6.4%2.0%2.0%2.0%187.4 239.6 385.8 633.0 531.6 466.4 565.3 680.4 790.3yoy 27.8%61.1%64.1%-16.0%-12.3%21.2%20.4%16.2%112.7 178.1 156.1 140.4 168.5 198.9 228.7yoy 58.1%-12.4%-10.0%20.0%18.0%15.0%342.5 355.4 340.7 332.1 335.4 342.2 345.6yoy 3.7%-4.1%-2.5%1.0%2.0%1.0%119.6 160.8 234.6 342.0 377.7 518.5 694.3 915.4 1,178.6yoy 34.5%45.9%45.8%10.4%37.3%33.9%31.8%28.8%64.8 101.9 101.9 127.3 165.5 211.8 264.8yoy 57.2%0.0%25.0%30.0%28.0%25.0%361.8 335.6 370.8 407.3 419.5 432.1 445.1yoy-7.2%10.5%9.8%3.0%3.0%3.0%26.3 23.3 15.7 14.6 13.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9yoy-11.5%-32.4%-7.2%-5.1%-78.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.5 3.3 3.1 8.7 77.4 90.6 99.7 109.7 120.6yoy 596.1%-6.2%178.5%789.7%17.1%10.0%10.0%10.0%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 56.
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