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销售和投资承压，政策发力去库存 相关研究：1.房地产销 售数据 点评：新房市场表现分 化，多地出 台楼市 新政 2024.5.6 行业评级：增持%1 3 12 23 4-10 28 13-17 300 分析师：张智珑 证 书 编 号：S0500521120002 Tel(8621)50295363 Email 地址：上海市浦东新区 银城 路88号中国人寿 金融中 心10楼 4 4 2024 1-4 2.92-20.2%0.8pct 2.45-23.8%0.4pct 1-4-28.3%0.7pct-31.1%0.4pct 4 6584-22.8%4.6pct 2013 4-30.4%4.6pct 1-4 30 37%4 20%43%2019 1-4 18%4 12%9%4 2024 1-4-24.9%-26%-37.2%-37.5%-39.7%-41%-10.1%-9.1%-10.1%-14.6%4-21.3%7.7pct-36.3%5.2pct-35.8%11pct-14.3%8pct+5.7%4 1-4-9.8%-9.5%-24.6%-27.8%-10.8%-11.1%-20.4%-20.7%4-10.5%0.5pct-14%11pct+19.4%-19.1%2.6pct 4 30 1 2 3 4 2015 2022 2023-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%2023/5/17 2023/7/16 2023/9/14 2023/11/13 2024/1/12 2024/3/12 2024/5/11 300()证 券研 究报告 2024 年 05 月20 日 湘 财证 券研究 所 行 业研 究 房 地产 行业 数 据及 政策点评 2024 430 XVFUvMtOsRpOtNnOmRoRnM8ObP7NsQoOmOtPkPqQqNfQtRsRaQmMwOxNqNpNwMpOrN 1 1 4 4 30 5 17 4 30 5 17 15.3%31 300 14pct A PB 2020 1 A 4 30%5 17 Wind 2 A PB MRQ Wind 051015202530354045500.00.51.01.52.02.53.020-01 20-04 20-07 20-10 21-01 21-04 21-07 21-10 22-01 22-04 22-07 22-10 23-01 23-04 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 A 2 2 4 4 2024 1-4 2.92-20.2%0.8pct 2.45-23.8%0.4pct 1-4-28.3%0.7pct-31.1%0.4pct 4 6584-22.8%4.6pct 2013 4-30.4%4.6pct 1-4-18.2%-17.1%-24.2%-23.9%-20.3%-19.4%-14.2%-14.3%-29.4%-28.8%-29.3%-28.9%-24.5%-23.1%-21.3%-19.3%1-4 30 37%4 20%43%2019 1-4 18%4 12%9%4 70 4 3.5%0.8pct 0.6%0.3pct 25 11 4-2.5%-2.9%-4.2%-0.6%-0.5%-0.6%4 6.8%0.9pct 0.9%0.4pct 8.5%6.8%6.6%1.1%0.9%0.9%eawTw358nAo8q0rVloEU0ZKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MMf09NAXsqUNQhoUs7Ch6GR 3 3%4%5%6%7 70%8 70%9 70%10 70%-60-40-20020406080100120050,000100,000150,000200,000:-60-40-20020406080100120020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000:-500501001500.0050,000.00100,000.00150,000.00200,000.00:-50050100150200020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000:-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.02018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04:-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.52018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04:-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.02018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04:-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04:4 11 4 2024 1-4-24.9%-26%-37.2%-37.5%-39.7%-41%-10.1%-9.1%-10.1%-14.6%4-21.3%7.7pct-36.3%5.2pct-35.8%11pct-14.3%8pct+5.7%2023-06 26906 15811 14817 1981 38761 11763 11107 1461YoY(%)1.4-11.3-10.9 6.0 7.1-9.0-6.0-0.8 45.2%26.6%24.9%3.3%61.4%18.6%17.6%2.3%2023-07 30088 17576 16645 2254 43287 13024 12501 1638YoY(%)-1.1-11.1-11.2 0.1 3.0-9.5-6.4-6.9 45.2%26.4%25.0%3.4%61.4%18.5%17.7%2.3%2023-08 33470 19263 18629 2586 48004 14271 14027 1855YoY(%)-3.9-11.1-9.0-1.7-0.7-8.9-4.5-8.5 45.3%26.0%25.2%3.5%61.4%18.3%17.9%2.4%2023-09 38822 21850 21107 3027 54953 16106 15858 2154YoY(%)-5.2-11.0-8.7-2.4-3.0-9.2-4.4-8.5 45.8%25.8%24.9%3.6%61.7%18.1%17.8%2.4%2023-10 42307 23828 23122 3321 59820 17525 17455 2362YoY(%)-6.1-11.4-7.8-2.8-3.7-9.6-3.3-8.7 45.7%25.7%25.0%3.6%61.6%18.0%18.0%2.4%2023-11 46148 25607 25132 3622 64872 18853 19023 2571YoY(%)-6.3-12.2-7.2-3.4-4.3-10.2-2.8-8.8 45.9%25.5%25.0%3.6%61.6%17.9%18.1%2.4%2023-12 51590 28330 27829 3986 71939 20810 21032 2842YoY(%)-6.7-13.2-7.5-3.0-5.8-11.2-3.7-7.7 46.2%25.4%24.9%3.6%61.7%17.8%18.0%2.4%2024-02 4938 2813 3312 306 6201 1931 2224 211YoY(%)-17.7-24.0-21.7-19.1-31.0-28.6-25.3-25.7 43.4%24.7%29.1%2.7%58.7%18.3%21.0%2.0%2024-03 10192 5638 6103 734 12726 3878 4227 525YoY(%)-17.1-23.9-19.4-14.3-28.8-28.9-23.1-19.3 45.0%24.9%26.9%3.2%59.6%18.2%19.8%2.5%2024-04 13115 7412 7731 994 16790 5131 5456 690YoY(%)-18.2-24.2-20.3-14.2-29.4-29.3-24.5-21.3 44.8%25.3%26.4%3.4%59.8%18.3%19.4%2.5%5 12 13 Wind 14 M1 M2%Wind 4 1-4-9.8%-9.5%-24.6%-27.8%-10.8%-11.1%-20.4%-20.7%4-10.5%0.5pct-14%11pct+19.4%-19.1%2.6pct 1-4 100 21%27%6pct 2pct 4 37.6%3 13pct-40-30-20-100102030405060050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000:-6,000-4,000-2,00002,0004,0006,000-4,000-2,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000:-4-2024681012141619-01 19-07 20-01 20-07 21-01 21-07 22-01 22-07 23-01 23-07 24-01M1:M2:6 15 16 17 18 19 100 Wind-20-1001020304050020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,00017-02 17-08 18-02 18-08 19-02 19-08 20-02 20-08 21-02 21-08 22-02 22-08 23-02 23-08 24-02:-60-40-20020406080050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000:-30-20-1001020304050020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000:-15-10-50510150200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,000:02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00018-0118-0418-0718-1019-0119-0419-0719-1020-0120-0420-0720-1021-0121-0421-0721-1022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-04100:100:7 20 100 Wind 3 9 430 21-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%13-01 13-07 14-01 14-07 15-01 15-07 16-01 16-07 17-01 17-07 18-01 18-07 19-01 19-07 20-01 20-07 21-01 21-07 22-01 22-07 23-01 23-07 24-01100 YoY-MA3-1.5-1-0.500.511.522.5-80-60-40-20020406080100120140160-MA3%70%2007 9 2008 9 2009 12 2016 3-4 3.25 9070 2011 12 2014 9 9.30 2013 2 2014 3 2016 10 2021 12 2020 8 2020 12 2021 2 2023 7 2024 4 8 4 30 1 2 3 4 2015 2022 2023 4 2015 Wind 4 50 20.6+22 23 Wind 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000:05101520253002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002011-012011-072012-012012-072013-012013-072014-012014-072015-012015-072016-012016-072017-012017-072018-012018-072019-012019-072020-012020-072021-012021-072022-012022-072023-012023-072024-01:():9 2024 2024 18 36 36 18-36 5 10 22 15 2024 10%10%4 1 120 1 4 4 18 4 28 4 30 1 4 30 1 2 120 10 5 3 3 5 6 1 1 1 5 9 1 2 3 4 5 9 5 17 15%20%25%30%8 20%30%LPR-20BP LPR+20BP 25BP 5 2.85%3.325%11 24 5 LPR%Wind 25:5%Wind 5 17 60%3000 1.75%1 43.003.504.004.505.005.506.002019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-04:(LPR):5 2.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.51999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 12 5000 2 5 17,3000 5000 4 430 5 湘财证券投资评级体 系（市场比较基准为沪深 300 指数）6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%重要声明 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