20240520_国盛证券_轻工制造行业：地产政策频发家居预期修正重视长久期资产低位配置机会_31页.pdf

|2024 05 20 Q2 Q2/Q2 4 4 24Q2 FY2024H2+18.4%+41.7%&24Q2 Q2 Smithers 2028 2018-2023 2423 2652 CAGR 1.8%2023-2028 2.1%&24&/24H2&BOPE/BOPP 24Q1 3C 3C 2024 2023 3C 2024 昇 S0680523040001 1 2024-05-11 2 2024-04-07 3 2024-03-25 EPS P E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 301061.SZ 3.18 3.85 4.71 5.53 22.05 18.21 14.89 12.68 603600.SH 0.89 1.00 1.24 1.48 13.37 11.90 9.60 8.04 603661.SH 1.89 3.93 4.68 5.53 27.34 13.15 11.04 9.35 603733.SH 0.94 1.52 2.04 2.56 21.33 13.19 9.83 7.83 603833.SH 4.98 5.28 5.85 6.53 15.56 14.68 13.25 11.87 603816.SH 2.44 2.69 2.97 3.30 15.66 14.20 12.86 11.58 603195.SH 4.34 4.98 5.75 6.64 29.07 25.33 21.94 19.00 002078.SZ 1.10 1.37 1.62 1.75 14.22 11.42 9.65 8.94 Wind-32%-16%0%16%2023-05 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 300 2024 05 20 P.2 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.7 1.2.1.7 1.2.2.13 1.2.3.15 1.3.16 1.4 Q2.18 1.5.19 2.21 3.22 3.1.22 3.1.1.22 3.1.2 4.24 3.2 2024 1-4 15.6+4.1%.25 3.3 2024 1-4.27 3.4.29 4.30 1.5 2.6 3.6 4.6 5.6 6.6 7.6 8%.7 9%.7 10/.8 11/.8 12.8 13.8 14 20.8 15 20.8 16.9 17/.10 18/.10 19%.10 20.10 21.11 22.12 23/.13 1ZCXzQqNpMqRsMmPrMqPoP9P9R6MsQrRnPnRiNmMsPjMsQrQaQmMxPxNtQoQMYoMoP 2024 05 20 P.3 24/.13 25/.13 26/.13 27%.14 28.14 29.14 30.15 31&.16 32.17 33.17 34.17 35 CPI%.18 36.18 37.19 38.19 39&.19 40.21 41 2024 5 12-5 17.21 42 2024 5 12-5 17%.21 43/.22 44 2019-2024/.22 45 2019-2024/.22 46 2019-2024/.22 47 2019-2024/.23 48 2019-2024/.23 49 2019-2024/.23 50 2019-2024/.23 51 2019-2024/.23 52 2019-2024/.23 53.24 54.24 55.24 56.24 57.25 58.25 59%.25 60%.25 61%.26 62%.26 63%.26 64%.26 65.26 66%.26 67.27 68.27 69.27 2024 05 20 P.4 70.28 71.28 72.28 73.28 74.28 75.28 76.29 77.29 78.29 79.29 F6pBbZi9hoeel3YtWzDeIZKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MPtLuWc+Ldclk3oJmoZMfEv 2024 05 20 P.5 1 1.1 1 5 14 4 30 2 5 17 3/2024 4-7.3%-13.7%-17.1%-13.4%+1.2%2024 4 5-6 2024Q2 1 Wind 2024 5 17 2024 1-4 1.37-21.0%4 0.26-13.4%2019 2023 CAGR 2019 2023 CAGR 2019 2023 2019 2023 2019 2023 2019 2023 2019 2023 603801.SH 14 2962 6116 106%20%329 595 81%16%39%37%-1%26%24%-1%13%13%0%11%10%-1%17%19%2%002790.SZ 23 1109 2184 97%18%182 219 20%5%30%30%-1%13%19%6%18%11%-7%16%10%-7%11%11%-1%603208.SH 14 2027 3738 84%17%261 390 49%11%32%26%-6%16%14%-2%16%12%-4%13%10%-3%22%26%5%603008.SH 18 4871 8678 78%16%380 429 13%3%35%34%0%25%27%2%10%7%-3%8%5%-3%15%12%-3%603816.SH 15 11094 19212 73%15%1161 2006 73%15%35%33%-2%24%21%-3%11%12%1%11%11%0%22%22%0%603180.SH 14 2125 3645 72%14%242 292 20%5%36%30%-6%25%23%-2%11%7%-5%11%8%-3%22%11%-11%603833.SH 15 13533 22782 68%14%1839 3036 65%13%36%34%-2%21%18%-2%15%16%1%14%13%0%21%18%-4%605268.SH 72 1951 3044 56%12%212 55-74%-29%29%27%-2%17%17%1%13%9%-3%11%2%-9%25%3%-22%1999.HK 12 11444 17404 52%11%1364 1915 40%9%34%38%4%0%0%0%34%38%4%12%11%-2%22%16%-6%002572.SZ 16 7686 11666 52%11%1077 1261 17%4%37%36%-1%20%20%0%17%16%-1%14%11%-3%21%20%-1%001323.SZ 17 3862 5579 44%10%333 802 141%25%53%50%-3%41%33%-9%12%17%5%9%14%6%38%18%-20%300749.SZ 251 930 1284 38%8%78 20-75%-29%39%28%-11%29%24%-4%10%3%-7%8%1%-7%10%3%-7%603848.SH 19 1260 1688 34%8%279 327 17%4%50%51%2%25%28%3%24%23%-1%22%19%-3%20%15%-5%301227.SZ 17 728 940 29%7%76 146 92%18%38%36%-2%23%12%-10%16%24%8%10%16%5%13%8%-5%603326.SH 16 1332 1711 28%6%154 157 2%0%44%46%2%30%32%2%14%14%0%12%9%-2%17%14%-3%001322.SZ 32 6658 7648 15%4%556 425-24%-7%32%28%-4%19%21%2%13%7%-6%9%6%-4%46%9%-37%603709.SH 70 1070 1101 3%1%34 21-37%-11%29%25%-4%25%22%-3%4%3%-1%3%2%-1%6%4%-2%603898.SH 14 2225 2265 2%0%365 217-40%-40%35%-5%22%26%4%18%9%-9%16%10%-6%15%7%-8%603216.SH 26 1348 1317-2%-1%188 96-49%-16%38%28%-10%22%19%-3%17%9%-7%14%7%-7%51%5%-46%603818.SH-9 4279 4028-6%-2%82-304-470%-44%32%-12%41%37%-5%3%-5%-7%2%-8%-10%6%-15%-21%000910.SZ 12 7298 6532-10%-3%720 333-54%-18%36%26%-10%24%19%-5%12%7%-5%10%5%-5%15%5%-10%002853.SZ 22 1471 1316-11%-3%175 86-51%-16%36%29%-6%20%20%-1%15%10%-6%12%6%-5%16%7%-9%600337.SH-6 5588 4182-25%-7%464-463-200%-53%43%-10%43%54%12%10%-12%-21%8%-11%-19%10%-12%-22%300616.SZ 50 7261 4900-33%-9%528 65-88%-41%42%35%-7%34%33%-1%8%2%-6%7%1%-6%16%2%-14%603389.SH-13 372 198-47%-15%-125-129 4%1%49%35%-14%71%93%22%-22%-58%-35%-35%-67%-32%-17%-29%-12%PE（TTM）ROE 2024 05 20 P.6 2 3 Wind Wind 2024 1-4 2.35-24.6%4 0.62-12.3%4 5 Wind Wind 2024 1-4 2.93-20.2%4 0.66-14.4%6 7 Wind Wind-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01234567892021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-02%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0500010000150002000025000300002021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-02-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%05101520252021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-02%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%0500010000150002000025000300002021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-04-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%024681012141618202021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-04%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%05000100001500020000250002021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-02 2024 05 20 P.7 2024 4 62.6+8.7%2024 4 110+1.2%8%9%Wind Wind FY2024 FY2024 184.11+6.1%23.02+20.2%H2+18.4%+41.7%FY2024 119.87+8.1%+12.8%77.82+3.1%29.88+9.6%2024 3 31 7236+765+&FY2024 61.53+3.2%42.84+2.3%FY2024H2 H2+38.3%11.95+2.9%FY2024H2 H2+34.9%3500/1000/1.2 1.2.1 2024 5 Arauco 820/+40/740/+30/Mercer 5 30/Suzano 30/60/80/6 2024 2 20+12.8%+25.0%/+4.9%/-1.1%/+8.4%APP Jambi 110&25 2024 5 10-5 16 176.93-0.5%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%010203040506070802022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-02-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%0501001502002502022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-03:2024 05 20 P.8 10/11/12 13 Europulp 14 20 15 20 PPPC PPPC 400500600700800900100011002021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-05(/)(/)200030004000500060007000800090002021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04/-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%801001201401601802002020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-07 YOY%-1010305070901101301502017-012017-062017-112018-042018-092019-022019-072019-122020-052020-102021-032021-082022-012022-062022-112023-042023-09-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-02-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%2023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-02/2024 05 20 P.9 16 Mercer 2024 5 30/Arauco 2024 5 820/+40/740/+30/Suzano 2024 5+30/+60/+80/Arauco 2024 4 780/+35/710/+60/Suzano 2024 年 4 月 30/80/100/Mercer 2024 年 4 月 50/Suzano 2024 3 80/30/Eldorado Klabin Bracell 2024 3 30/Arauco 2024 年 3 月 745/650/Arauco 2024 年 2 月 745/-15/650/Arauco 2024 年 1 月 760/-20/650/Arauco 12 780/Arauco 11 780/+50/630/+50/Aracmz Celulose 2023 10 590/+30/West Fraser Timber 2023 10 780/+50/5 13-5 17 5747.5/-25/5730/-10/5 300/6/-0.95pct/-5.53ct+0.9%/+0.4%4352/-12/+7.4pct+1.5%120 100 80 2024 05 20 P.10 17/18/19%20 5000550060006500700075002021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04 40005000600070008000900010000110002021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04/30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04 0501001502002502018-072018-112019-032019-072019-112020-032020-072020-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112023-032023-072023-112024-03 2024 05 20 P.11 21 2024 45 PM32 Wind 2024 2025 2024 05 20 P.12 22 2024.06.01+300/2024.06.01+300/2024.06.01+300/2024.06.01+300/2024.4.1+200/2024.4.1+200/2024.4.1+200/2024.3.15+200/2024.3.1+200/2024.3.1+200/2024.2.1+100/2024.2.1+100/2023.12.1+200/2023.12.1+200/2023.12.1+200/APP 2023.12.1+200/2023.11.16+200/2023.11.15+200/2023.11.15+200/APP 2023.11.1+300/2024.4.1+200/2024.4.1+200/2024.4.1+200/APP 2024.4.1+200/2024.4.1+200/2024.3.1+200/2024.3.1+200/2024.2.28+200/2024.2.1+100/2024.2.1+100/2024.3.26+200/2024.3.26+200/APP 2024.3.25+200/2024.2.1+100/2024.1.30+100/2024.1.16+100/2024.1.16+100/2024.1.16+100/2024 05 20 P.13 1.2.2 1 1439/3630/2610/-10/-14/-4.11pct/+3.20pct-0.81%/-1.65%2 12#243.8/+2.5/&23/24/25/26/5001000150020002500300035002017-012017-062017-112018-042018-092019-022019-072019-122020-052020-102021-032021-082022-012022-062022-112023-042023-092024-02A 1001502002503003504002021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-04 12 13 11 OCC 11250030003500400045005000550060002020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04 250030003500400045005000550060002018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-05/2024 05 20 P.14 27%28 29 2023 2023 2024 2023 2022 2024 2023 2024 30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%2018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04 0501001502002502018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04 2022 2023 2024E 100 77 60 60 80 90 65 30 100 160 322 180-272 478 175-94 289 45 1-1 1-337 134 49 2024 05 20 P.15 30 120-120g-2024.5.20+20/120g+120g+2024.5.20+30/110g+2024-5.14+20/2024.5.7+30/2024.5.5+30/2024.4.23+30/T 2024.4.15+30/T 2024.4.7+30/2024.2.22+30/2024.2.22+30/2024.2.22+30/2024.2.22+30/2024.2.22+50/2023.12.19+50/B 2023.12.7-2023.12.14+50/2023.12.7+50/2023.11.29+30/90 2023.11.27+50/90 2023.11.23+50/2023.11.22+30/2023.11.25+50/2023.10.12+50-100/2023.10.07+50/2023.10.12+150/2023.10.09+50/24Q2 Q2 Capex 1.2.3 Smithers 2028 2018-2023 2423 2652 CAGR 1.8%2024 05 20 P.16 2023-2028 2.1%&5 1/3 2023-2028&592 654 CAGR 2.0%CAGR 3.8%&31&Q2 3-4 Q2 23Q4/24Q1 4 2 Q2&24 4 PM1&PM2 Q1 Q4 24-25 5 24H2 3 24Q2 1.3 2024/2024Q2 30%2024H2&2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2022 161.2 205.4 236.5 267.0 301.7 CR232.18%YOY 6.0%27.4%15.1%12.9%13.0%CR244.5%105.5 108.5 111.3 120.5 105.7YOY 8.5%2.9%2.6%3.3%-12.3%30.2 34.2 38.9 44.3 52.5YOY 34.8%13.2%13.7%14.0%18.3%49.0 52.0 53.0 53.0 55.1YOY 16.7%6.1%1.9%0.0%4.0%46.7 44.7 43.1 42.2 41.4YOY-0.6%-4.3%-3.6%-2.0%-2.0%19.2 20.4 21.0 23.0 25.0YOY 3.2%6.4%2.8%9.5%8.7%13.8 16.2 21.0 23.5 24.2YOY 3.1%17.0%29.8%11.9%3.0%8.8 8.5 9.0 10.5 10.5YOY-1.1%-3.4%5.9%16.7%0.0%CR3 76.5%1 2021 50 2 2023 30 3 2024 30 4 30 1 2024&2 2024 5 3 2024-2025 40 4 8 25 5 2024&2024-2025 40 2025 20 8 2024&2024-2025 40 CR3 84.1%UPM 2024&CR2 28.5%2024&2024 5 2024-2025 40 8 25 5 CR2 44.1%2023 2.2 2024 6 2024&25 2.5 CR3 83.4%2024&8 2.5&2.6 CR3 79.8%2024 05 20 P.17 32 freemore&1 2 67W 10 33 34 2024 05 20 P.18 15 10 11 25 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1.4 Q2 4 CPI CPI 3.4%3.5%CPI 0.3%12 6 24 Q4/23/23H2 Q4 35 CPI%36 Wind Wind 01234567891020-0120-0420-0720-1021-0121-0421-0721-1022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-04:CPI:CPI:-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002503003502000-012001-042002-072003-102005-012006-042007-072008-102010-012011-042012-072013-102015-012016-042017-072018-102020-012021-042022-072023-10:2024 05 20 P.19 37 38 Wind Wind 39&Wind Q2 Q2 24Q1 Q2/Q2 1.5&-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0204060801001201402000-012002-012004-012006-012008-012010-012012-012014-012016-012018-012020-012022-012024-01:-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0102030405060702000-012001-042002-072003-102005-012006-042007-072008-102010-012011-042012-072013-102015-012016-042017-072018-102020-012021-042022-072023-10 35.85%43.14%53.13%77.59%20.00%48.45%16.28%2020 1.44 1.99 1.68 1.81 0.79 2.43 1.512024-01 1.29 1.83 1.62 1.95 0.75 2.27 1.29 72.22%44.55%64.13%87.34%81.58%83.87%51.88%31.94%69.33%93.33%43.93%2020 1.59 1.56 1.64 1.40 1.09 0.79 1.97 1.19 2.02 2.52 1.462024-01 1.80 1.77 1.92 1.72 1.26 0.92 2.18 1.22 2.25 2.97 1.55 41.94%48.65%12.07%54.93%66.67%23.53%45.95%11.11%96.72%85.71%2020 0.93 1.04 1.14 1.94 0.66 1.24 1.13 0.37 1.26 1.392024-01 0.92 1.01 1.03 2.34 0.71 1.07 1.12 0.28 1.64 1.78 2024 05 20 P.20 BOPE/BOPP 2024 2024Q1 3C 3C 2024 2023 3C 2024 2024&2023-2025 60%2024 昇 2024 05 20 P.21 2 2024 5 12-5 17-0.02%-0.22%300+0.32%+2.76%1+1.8%+0.8%2-2.6%+0.7%+0.7%+0.3%+1.3%3+11.1%+6.6%+12.6%+4.1%+1.1%4+1.1%+1.7%40 Wind 41 2024 5 12-5 17 42 2024 5 12-5 17%Wind Wind-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%2024-01-022024-01-052024-01-102024-01-152024-01-182024-01-232024-01-262024-01-312024-02-052024-02-082024-02-212024-02-262024-02-292024-03-052024-03-082024-03-132024-03-182024-03-212024-03-262024-03-292024-04-032024-04-102024-04-152024-04-182024-04-232024-04-262024-05-062024-05-092024-05-142024-05-17 300()0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%()()()()-1001020304050 2024 05 20 P.22 3 3.1 3.1.1 2024 5 5 Arauco 820/+40/740/+30/Mercer 5+30/Suzano 30/60/80/43/44 2019-2024/45 2019-2024/46 2019-2024/5 13-5 17 5747.5/-25/5730/-10/4352/-12/3630/2610/-10/-14/500600700800900100011002019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-05 90014001900240029001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500600700800900100011001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 4505005506006507007508008509001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2024 05 20 P.23 47 2019-2024/48 2019-2024/49 2019-2024/50 2019-2024/51 2019-2024/52 2019-2024/50005500600065007000750080001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 450050005500600065007000750080001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 250035004500550065001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2000250030003500400045005000550060001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 400050006000700080009000100001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 250030003500400045005000550060001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2024 05 20 P.24 3.1.2 4 2024 4 2024 4/49/38+4%/+3%/153/90+9%/+16%/65/70+6%/+3%53 54 55 56-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01020304050607080901002016-012016-082017-032017-102018-052018-122019-072020-022020-092021-042021-112022-062023-012023-082024-03 yoy-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%01020304050602016-012016-082017-032017-102018-052018-122019-072020-022020-092021-042021-112022-062023-012023-08 yoy-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0204060801001201401601802016 1 2018 2 2020 3 2022 4 yoy-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%0204060801001202016 3 2018 4 2020 5 2022 6 yoy 2024 05 20 P.25 57 58 3.2 2024 1-4 15.6+4.1%2024 1-4 15.6+4.1%5000+1.5%2479-7.2%974+2.5%59%60%Wind Wind-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0204060801001201402016 1 2018 2 2020 3 2022 4 yoy-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%02040608010