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Andrew Haskins Executive Director | Research | Asia andrew.haskinscolliers Michael Bowens Executive Director | Regional Tenant Representation | Asia michael.bowenscolliers Four terms describe an appropriate strategy for technology occupiers in Asia: talent, Chindia, CBD, artificial intelligence (AI). Acquiring talent is the greatest challenge facing the sector. Talent is concentrated near specific cities in key markets, notably China and India. These markets offer the highest growth potential, but more importantly exposure to China is vital to appreciating new developments in e-commerce, mobile internet and AI. To retain talent, technology groups need to move toward the CBD or CBD fringe; campus sites are unlikely to attract skilled staff for key future roles. AI threatens demand for space, but will support high-value human roles and fuel productivity. This will drive future growth and returns for technology companies. Executive Summary Talent Based on interviews held by Colliers with technology companies in Asia, acquisition of talent is their greatest challenge, ranking far ahead of other constraints. The occupiers in our study have particular respect for Beijing/ North China as a source of talent, together with Shanghai/East China and India (notably Bangalore). Talent is getting younger, with millennials the top or joint top employee age group for two-thirds of the companies. Chindia China and India offer the highest growth potential over ten years. We think it vital for technology groups to have exposure to China to understand the developments in a dynamic market leading Asia in e-commerce, mobile internet and AI. We advise technology groups to consider location in Shanghai or Beijing (or, on a medium-term view, Chengdu) in addition to currently dominant South China. In India, Hyderabad is emerging as a strong alternative to Bangalore with lower rents. CBD We think technology groups need to move towards the CBD or CBD fringe to find and retain talent in R fastest growth in social media, app-based services, specialised chips . 5 Key findings from interviews . 7 Country and growth strategy . 8 Economic prospects in Asia firm . 8 India and China offer greatest long-run growth potential . 10 Relative US dollar weakness good news for Asia and a vote of confidence in China . 10 Essential to have a strategy for China as an increasing technology leader . 11 Location strategy . 13 Sales and marketing, R and we expect the attractions of the CBD and CBD fringe to strengthen further over time. Business parks on city outskirts retain their attractions, especially for smaller companies and start-up operations. However, we expect out-of-town campus facilities to be increasingly limited to manufacturing units. Artificial intelligence threatens long-run demand for space by technology occupiers, notably outsourcing groups. However, AI will also aid high-value human roles and drive productivity. The convergence of AI, the Internet of Things and alternative workplace solutions is set to cut costs, boost growth and returns, and enhance the well-being of staff across many sectors, but perhaps especially technology. No unified tech sector; fastest growth in social media, app-based services, specialised chips We should make clear at this point that there is, of course, no such thing as a unified technology sector. The technology occupiers in our study operate in quite different markets and consequently show widely differing rates of revenue growth. We would group the companies into the following technology market sub-sectors: Hardware manufacturing Three companies fall into this category: a manufacturer of PCs and smartphones, a producer of smartphones, and an international manufacturer of telecommunications network equipment. In simple terms, the PC industry has been under pressure from the shift to mobile internet and the popularity of smartphones. The smartphone business is dominated by Apple of the US and Samsung of South Korea at the high end, but hard at their heels are several Chinese smartphone producers which have seen market share trends shift dramatically. The telecommunications infrastructure market has stagnated globally due to the completion of investment in 4G mobile networks and a general delay before the transition to 5G. One of the three companies hopes to achieve compound annual revenue growth of over 50% over the next few years, while another is currently shrinking. Integrated circuit design and production Two companies fall into this category: a large supplier of integrated circuits, and a designer of specialised chips for mobile and entertainment markets. Again in very simple terms, the IC business has been shifting for many years from dependence on the PC industry for growth to dependence on mobile communications and other new applications. One of these two companies is growing moderately, while the other is more likely to see revenues grow at a 20-25% rate over the next few years. Software and IT services We interviewed two companies in the traditional software and IT services sector. This is another market which has seen growth moderate since the PC industry reached maturity over the 2000s, although the global giant of the 6 Tech Trends in Asia | 5 December 2017 | Property Research | Asia | Colliers International sector has begun to recover since it started moving into the Cloud and is one of the small number of technology groups with a stock market value of over USD500 billion. The two companies in this sector are both achieving moderate growth in Asia at present. IT and business process outsourcing Two of the companies in our study fall into the IT and business process outsourcing (BPO) sector which is so important in India and the Philippines. This sector has achieved substantial growth in recent years, and one of the companies told us that it still hopes for average annual growth in the 5-20% range over the next five years. However, artificial intelligence (AI) is a clear long-run risk to this market, and warnings have increased recently about the threat to BPO jobs in the Philippines in particular from increasing automation. Our own work on this subject suggests that AI should complement high-value roles and drive productivity, and so should not necessarily replace human roles on a large-scale. However, we accept that there is the potential for substantial near-term disruption, notably among lower-value roles.1 Social media and app-based services We interviewed two well-known companies providing social media and app-based services. Internet-related businesses of this type have been growing rapidly in Asia, above all in China, and this trend looks set to continue. One of the two companies in this group hopes to achieve 10-20% average annual revenue growth over the next five years, while the other aspires to a rate closer to 50%. Other The final company in our study is a global manufacturer of automated machinery, with an increasingly technologically advanced business profile. Its operations ought to benefit from the current economic acceleration globally and in Asia. 1 See “Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Indian Real Estate - Transformation Ahead“, 5 October 2017, by Colliers International 7 Tech Trends in Asia | 5 December 2017 | Property Research | Asia | Colliers International Key findings from interviews Colliers staff held 12 detailed interviews focusing on future strategy with the Asian operations of multinational technology occupiers domiciled in the US, other western countries, China and India over the late summer of 2017. These companies span the gamut of technology sub-sectors from hardware manufacturing to social media. Some of our key findings are below: Acquisition of talent is the single greatest challenge facing technology occupiers, ranking far ahead of other constraints. This answer represented 40% of responses to our question on the subject, ranking well ahead of competition, regulation or any other issue India and China offer the greatest potential in Asia on a ten year view, representing 56% of all positive responses expressed about particular markets. More surprisingly, mature Japan ranks third. The technology companies that we interviewed consider Beijing/North China to be the single region representing greatest source of talent within Asia, followed by Shanghai/East China and India (Bangalore). Leasing of additional office space and use of flexible working space account for 92% of expressed preferences about future options for expansion. However, one successful Chinese company has a clear preference for self-building and owner occupation. Opinion is widely split about the best location for office and manufacturing facilities over the next five to ten years. The CBD fringe remains in the lead, but many occupiers prefer the CBD, business parks and campus facilities. Generation Y/millennial staff are the largest or joint largest age group for two-thirds of the occupiers in our study. Floor space per person is the most common measure of workplace efficiency, although technology companies use many others too. The proportion of staff working outside company facilities varies all the way from almost zero to 90%, although the most common category is 10-30%. Certain companies believe that physical presence in the workplace is vital to collaboration and R&D, and so are happy for the proportion to be low. The top three technology requirements of technology occupiers are high-speed internet, followed by secure servers and remote server access. By far the most common form of travel to the workplace is public transport. However, travel by car is still surprisingly important overall, accounting for 25% of expressed preferences about mode of transport for staff. Technology occupiers regard public transport as the most important surrounding amenity for their workplaces, with restaurants, bars and shops in close second place. Car parking is also quite highly ranked, confirming that, in Asia, the age of the automobile is not yet over. 8 Tech Trends in Asia | 5 December 2017 | Property Research | Asia | Colliers International Country and growth strategy Economic prospects in Asia firm Global economies are mostly firm, and 2017 will see the highest global growth since 2011. In Asia, China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan should all achieve higher real GDP growth in 2017 than most observers predicted six to nine months ago (see Figure 1 below). However, momentum in India has slowed. We comment below on economic prospects in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and India, which are the markets of greatest significance in this study. China Announced in July, YOY real GDP growth for China in Q2 2017 exceeded most forecasts, reaching 6.9% or the same as in Q1. The high figure partly reflected strength in housing sales growth and housing starts, notably in smaller cities. However, resilience in residential property was not the only factor. Notably, goods exports growth rose from 9.6% YOY in Q1 to 10.2% in Q2, driven by firm global demand. Moreover, growth in industrial value added rose to 7.6% YOY in June, while household consumption growth and retail sales were also robust. After the announcement, Oxford Economics raised its forecast for Chinese real GDP growth for 2017 as a whole from 6.3% to 6.8%, compared to 6.7% in 2016. Certain parts of China, notably the north-east, still face economic pressures. Moreover, following the Q2 GDP data there were signs of moderation in trade activity which suggested that H2 would be cooler than H1. As announced in October, real GDP growth for Q3 duly eased slightly to 6.8% as exports and investment lost pace, although consumption growth remained stable. Nevertheless, on a year-on-year basis, China is currently accelerating modestly rather than slowing down. Moreover, the near-term outlook remains firm: Oxford Economics forecasts real GDP growth of 6.4% for 2018, and points out that China only needs to grow by 6.3% per annum over 2018-20 in order to meet its ambitious goal of doubling 2010 GDP by 2020.2 As shown in Colliers city reports for Q2 2017, firm economic expansion drove stronger office net absorption and rental growth in H1 in large Chinese cities than we had expected. This was true for Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen, while in Chengdu robust demand for leased space meant that the city-wide vacancy rate fell by 4.1 percentage points from Q1 to Q2, even though the rate remains high at 30.5%. All these cities face heavy increases in supply of office space over the next few years. However, after the strong H1 outcome on the whole we raised our forecasts for take-up of new space and reduced our assumptions about pressure on rents. The outcome in Q3 was not quite as strong as in Q2. In Shanghai, following Q2s high net absorption (the highest level in the past decade), demand for quality office space declined moderately in Q3. Beijing saw stable leasing demand but new availability at below-average rent which pulled down the occupancy rate. Shenzhen and Chengdu saw solid leasing demand from a range of sectors including technology. Looking forward, Oxford Economics expects average real GDP growth in China to slow from 6.1% over the period 2017-2021 to 4.9% over the period 2022-2026. In order to avoid the risk of a financial crisis, the economy needs to wean itself off the traditional credit-fuelled and investment-led growth model. Moreover, with returns to investment now more modest, capital stock is likely to make a significantly lower contribution to growth in the future. The contribution from the labour supply will also be negligible given a declining working age population from 2016. On the other hand, China should move up the economic and technological “value chain” as it loses its competitive edge in labour-intensive sectors. 2 Please see “Country Economic Forecast, China”, 24 October 2017, by Oxford Economics. See also the report of 18 September. Figure 1: Major Asian economies: estimated real GDP growth 2016-2021 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 China 6.7% 6.8% 6.4% 6.0% 5.7% Japan 1.0% 1.7% 1.6% 0.9% 0.0% Hong Kong 2.0% 3.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% Singapore 2.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% India 7.9% 6.5% 7.5% 7.1% 6.9% Source: Oxford Economics 9 Tech Trends in Asia | 5 December 2017 | Property Research | Asia | Colliers International Hong Kong In Hong Kong, real GDP grew by 0.5% QOQ in Q3 2017, or by 3.6% YOY, driven in particular by very firm private consumption. Export growth was also robust, supported by vibrant regional trade and a recovery in inbound tourism. Hong Kong is now growing at the fastest rate since 2011. Following the strong Q3 outcome, Oxford Economics has raised its forecast for real GDP growth for 2017 from 3.5% to 3.6%. This represents a remarkable acceleration fr
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