资源描述
|2024 05 29 5 TMT/2024 5G 5G-A 2023 63.8%2024 1 2024 2024 5.77pct 2023 2024 2 2024 AI 昇 2023 5G AI 5G-A 23EPS 24EPS 24PE PB 600941.SH 2148.5 6.15 6.46 15.5 1.6 601728.SH 552.7 0.33 0.36 17.0 1.2 600050.SH 149.5 0.26 0.29 16.3 0.9%194 3.8 2682.2 3.5 1994.0 2.9%1m 6m 12m 1.4-11.1-5.7-0.0-14.6-0.1 1 3 2024-05-08 2 GB200 1.6T AI 1 2024-04-17 3 AI 16 IDC AI 2024-03-31 S1090522060001 S1090523040001-200204060Sep/22 Jan/23 May/23 Aug/23(%)通信 沪深300 2 2024.5.9 1 5G.9 2 AI 10 3 11 4 5G-A 5G-A 12 5.13 2023&2024Q1.15 1 2023.15 2 2024 21 1 IaaS PaaS IaaS+PaaS.5 2.6 3 2022-2024E%.6 4 2022-2024E Capex%.6 5.9 6 2021-2023%.11 7 2021-2023%.11 8.12 9.12 10.14 11 504“”.14 12 2019-2023%.15 13 2019-2023%.15 14 2019-2023%.15 15 2019-2023%.15 16 2020-2023%.16 17 2020-2023%.16 XVEVuNrMnOoPrPnOtOtMoPbR9RaQtRrRsQtPiNmMqNeRoNmMbRrRxPNZqMuNwMqMyQ 3 18 2023.17 19 2023.17 20 2019-2023 ARPU/.17 21 2019-2023 ARPU/.17 22 2019-2023%.18 23 2019-2023 ROE%.18 24 2019-2023%.18 25 2019-2023%.18 26 2014-2023%.19 27 2014-2023%.19 28 2019-2023%.21 29%.21 30 2021Q1-2024Q1%.22 31 2021Q1-2024Q1%.22 32 2022Q1-2024Q1 ARPU/22 33 2022Q1-2024Q1 ARPU/22 34 2023.03-2024.03%.23 35 2023.03-2024.03%.23 36 PEBand.23 37 PBBand.23 1.5 2.7 3 2024 PC.7 4 2023 2024.7 5 2023 5G.10 6 AI.11 7.11 8 2023.15 9 2020-2023%.19 10 2020-2023%.20 11 2020-2023%.20 4 12 2021-2023.21 mfJDBLEYSK6owGO/MHhSA5KvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MMqf8pKMwcT6KGOGNeVWnNZ 5 2024 2023 IaaS PaaS IaaS+PaaS 2023 2,315 60.4%2022 111.0%/68%/66%/42%IDC 1 IaaS 2023H2 IaaS AWS 1.1pct 2.3pct 2 PaaS 2023H2 PaaS AWS 2023H1 2.1pct PaaS 3 IaaS+PaaS 2023Q3 11.6%8.3%1.4pct 2.8pct 1 2021 yoy 2022 yoy 2023 yoy 1 AWS 4,010 35%5,524 38%6,444 17%2 Azure 4,384 25%5,753 31%6,936 21%3 Gcp 1,224 44%1,813 48%2,349 30%1 724 30%776 7%994 28%2 279 102%579 108%972 68%3 242 114%503 108%833 66%4 201 34%453 125%553 22%5 163 46%361 121%510 42%6 284 45%298 5%-7 151 64%177 17%188 6%8 91 38%82-10%70-14%9 Ucloud 29 18%20-32%15-23%10 4-1%3-28%3 10%1 IaaS PaaS IaaS+PaaS IDC 6 1 2024 2024 30%AI 2 AI 2024Q1 2024Q1 12%AIGC 6.9%2 2024 2023/391/195/149 21.69%/19.73%/20.16%2024/475/180+21.48%/-7.69%27.46%/18.75%+5.77pct/-0.98pct 3 2022-2024E%4 2022-2024E Capex%Capex-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%01002003004005002022 2023 2024E中国移动（亿元）中国电信（亿元）中国联通（亿元）中国移动yoy（%）中国电信yoy（%）中国联通yoy（%）0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2022 2023 2024E中国移动（%）中国电信（%）中国联通（%）7 2 2023 2024 2024 8EFLOPS 10EFLOPS 475 9EFLOPS 17EFLOPS 4EFLOPS 11EFLOPS/180 21EFLOPS-Capex 2023 2024 2024 AI 1 2024 2 2024 PC 26.45 AI 2024 5 2024-2025 7,994 AI 190.86 2023-2024 225.75%537.69%2024-2025 昇 2024 4 2024 2 AI 85%6 GPU 2 2023 10 AI 2023-2024 I G 4,175 80 G AI 47.35%3 2024 4 2024 AI 2,503 2022 36.18%20 4 3 2024 PC 11 6 5 4 3 2 1 10 4 2023 2024 2023-2024%1-3 AI PCIe 716-4 AI PCIe 52 0.15 70%0.14 30%5 AI PCIe 16 0.04 100%8 6 AI PCIe 64 0.11 70%0.10 30%11 AI 356 4.91 256 4.90 100 12 AI 1,250 24.74 40.96%24.74 30.08%24.74 20.48%24.74 8.48%2,454-29.93-2024-2025%1 AI 7,994 190.97 21.05%190.97 17.45%190.97 15.79%191.36 14.04%191.17 12.28%191.17 10.53%190.58 8.77%7,994-190.86-9 2023 2024 2023 5G AI 5G-A 5 1 5G 2023 5G 1 2023 5G 54.3 113.1%2 2023 5G 106.3%3.1 3 2023 56 17.5%5G 8,563 5G B 5G 5G DICT 2023 5G 113.1%10 17.5%5G 5 2023 5G 2023 5G 2023 5G 54.3 113.1%5G-2023 5G 106.3%3.1 56 17.5%5G 8,563 2 AI 2023 2023 1 2023 53.4 67.9%2023 2 2023 PaaS API 46 45%50 9 3 2023 53 32%5 50%15 800 11 6 2021-2023%7 2021-2023%AI+1 2023 1+N 20 450 AI 2 2023 1+N+M 20 600 3 2024 1+1+M 10 6 AI 1+N 1+N+M 1+1+M 90 139 570 70 120 520 10 70 130 340 700 20 20 10 2024 3 7 A1.A2-20090001 A1.A2-20090002 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01020304050602021 2022 2023中国移动大数据业务收入（亿元）yoy（%）0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01020304050602021 2022 2023中国联通数据服务收入（亿元）yoy（%）12 A1.A2-20090003 A1.A2-20050005 A1-20160001 A2-20160003 1 2024 2 01 5G 5G 6G 6G 2 2024 3 E.164 882 52 E.212 901 09 2024 5 3 2024 2 NR NTN 2 4 NR NTN 3.6Mbps 11Mbps 4G 8 9 4 5G-A 5G-A 5G-A 5G-A 1 2024 3 5G-A 100 2024 300 13 15 5G-A 5G-A+2026 5G-A 2 3CC 5G-A 3 5G-A P-IoT 5G-A P-IOT uRLLC 5G-A uRLLC 5G-A 2024-2030 5G 5G-A 5G 1 2023 12 5G-A+5G-A 2 2024 4 5G-A 5G-A+3 5G-A 5 1 2019 1.0 1.0 3.3EFLOPS FP16 260 2 2021 9 2023 5 30 2023 11 2024 4 19 504 3 2019 5 2021 12 5G+5G 2023 7 MWC 5G+14 5G 5G 10 11 504 15 2023&2024Q1 1 2023 2023 2023 18,897 6.9%16,636 6.2%1,704 6.3%2023 2023/10,093/5,078/3,726 7.7%/6.9%/5.0%8,635/4,650/3,352 6.3%/6.9%/5.0%1,318/304/82 5.0%/10.3%/12.0%12 2019-2023%13 2019-2023%14 2019-2023%15 2019-2023%8 2023 10,093 5,078 3,726 0%5%10%15%05,00010,00015,00020,0002019 2020 2021 2022 2023三大运营商营业收入（亿元）三大运营商通服收入（亿元）三大运营商归母净利润（亿元）营业收入yoy（%）通服收入yoy（%）归母净利润yoy（%）0%2%4%6%8%10%12%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002019 2020 2021 2022 2023中国移动营业收入（亿元）中国电信营业收入（亿元）中国联通营业收入（亿元）中国移动yoy（%）中国电信yoy（%）中国联通yoy（%）0%2%4%6%8%10%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,0002019 2020 2021 2022 2023中国移动通服收入（亿元）中国电信通服收入（亿元）中国联通通服收入（亿元）中国移动yoy（%）中国电信yoy（%）中国联通yoy（%）0%10%20%30%05001,0001,5002019 2020 2021 2022 2023中国移动归母净利润（亿元）中国电信归母净利润（亿元）中国联通归母净利润（亿元）中国移动yoy（%）中国电信yoy（%）中国联通yoy（%）16 yoy%7.7%6.9%5.0%8,635 4,650 3,352 yoy%6.3%6.9%5.0%EBITDA 3,415 1,368 998 EBITDA yoy%3.7%5.0%0.6%1,318 304 82 yoy%5.0%10.3%12.0%2023 9,673/3,062/3,639 4.0%/9.4%/15.6%58.1%/18.4%/21.9%2022-1.2pct/+0.5pct/+1.8pct 16 2020-2023%17 2020-2023%ARPU 5G ARPU 1 5G 2023/9.91/4.08/3.33 2022 0.16/0.17/0.11 57.21%/23.54%/19.24%5G 7.95/3.19/2.60 5G 80.17%/78.15%/78.08%17.20pct/9.65pct/11.98pct 2023/2.98/1.90/1.13 2022 0.26/0.09/0.10 49.56%/31.60%/18.85%30.0%/24.6%/22.0%/14.3pct/7.8pct 2 ARPU/ARPU/ARPU 2023/ARPU 49.3/45.4/44.0+0.61%/+0.44%/-0.68%0%10%20%30%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,0002020 2021 2022 2023三大运营商移动业务收入（亿元）三大运营商固网宽带业务收入（亿元）三大运营商产业互联网业务（亿元）移动业务yoy（%）固网宽带业务yoy（%）产业互联网业务yoy（%）0%10%20%30%40%05001,0001,5002020 2021 2022 2023中国移动产业互联网业务收入（亿元）中国电信产业互联网业务收入（亿元）中国联通产业互联网业务收入（亿元）中国移动yoy（%）中国电信yoy（%）中国联通yoy（%）17 ARPU 43.1/47.6/47.6+2.38%/+2.81%/-0.42%5G/ARPU 18 2023 19 2023 20 2019-2023 ARPU/21 2019-2023 ARPU/ROE 1 ROE 2023 10.9%0.1pct 2022 2023/ROE 10.2%/6.9%/5.4%0.1pct/0.5pct/0.4pct ROE 2 2023 97 0.27%171 6.5%2020-2022 4.2%8.5%7.5%18.6 6.8%2020-2022 2.3%11.5%8.0%97,20097,40097,60097,80098,00098,20098,40098,60098,80099,00099,20005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000中国电信（万户）中国联通（万户）中国移动（万户，右轴）05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000中国移动（万户）中国电信（万户）中国联通（万户）3032343638404244464850522019 2020 2021 2022 2023中国移动 中国电信 中国联通30323436384042444648502019 2020 2021 2022 2023中国移动 中国电信 中国联通 18 22 2019-2023%23 2019-2023 ROE%2023 24 2019-2023%25 2019-2023%2023 2023 1.2pct/2024 20%2023 3,530 0.3%21.2%1.2pct 2020-2022 24.8%23.4%22.5%1 2024 1,730 4.0%20%475 21.48%2023 16.72%2 2024 960 2.9%20%/+2.5pct/-4.5pct/-0.2pct/+2.2pct 3 2024 650 12.04%0%5%10%15%20%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023中国移动（%）中国电信（%）中国联通（%）三大运营商合计通服利润率（%）0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023中国移动（%）中国电信（%）中国联通（%）0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%03060901201501802019 2020 2021 2022 2023三大运营商人均创收（亿元）人均创收yoy（%）-10%-5%0%5%10%15%051015202019 2020 2021 2022 2023三大运营商人均创利（亿元）人均创利yoy（%）19 26 2014-2023%27 2014-2023%2023 1 2023/22.82%/30.21%/16.54%/6.08%-0.68pct/-0.01pct/+1.42pct/-0.03pct 2023 58.7%287 BASIC6 AI 6G 2 2023/21.4%/34.5%/14.4%/20.0%/12.2%-0.6pct/+0.5pct/-0.6pct/+1.0pct/-0.8pct 2023 130.5 23.6%3 2023/25.32%/17.91%/18.78%/19.78%-1.87pct/+0.24pct/-0.24pct/+1.46pct 2023 90.0 18.5%9 2020-2023%2020 2021 2022 2023 6,956.92 7,514.09 8,120.58 8,635.14 4,601.60 5,078.22 5,541.2 5,815.51 yoy 10%9%5%1,724.01 1,847.64 1,908.28 1,970.44 yoy 7%3%3%2,064.24 2,159.3 2,454.35 2,608.81 yoy 5%14%6%731 960.83 1,227.43 1,428.07 yoy 31%28%16%499.49 482.43 495.92 524.77 yoy-3%3%6%/25%25%23%23%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%01,0002,0003,0004,0002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023三大运营商资本开支总和（亿元）yoy（%）资本开支占通服收入比重（%）0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023中国移动资本开支占收比（%）中国电信资本开支占收比（%）中国联通资本开支占收比（%）20/30%29%30%30%/11%13%15%17%/7%6%6%6%10 2020-2023%2020 2021 2022 2023 3,737.98 4,028.27 4,349.28 4,649.65 3,598.79 4,086.05 4,480.21 4,764.23 yoy 14%10%6%902.4 929.65 969.32 997.02 yoy 3%4%3%1,195.17 1,333.42 1,475.89 1,604.11 yoy 12%11%9%550.59 611.55 642.77 668.04 yoy 11%5%4%659.89 760.55 847.72 928.05 yoy 15%11%10%290.74 450.88 544.51 567.01 yoy 55%21%4%/24%23%22%21%/32%33%34%34%/15%15%15%14%/18%19%19%20%/8%11%13%12%11 2020-2023%2020 2021 2022 2023 2758.14 2961.53 3193.48 3351.7 3038.38 3171.8 3426 3576.3 yoy 4%8%4%830.2 856.5 868.3 848.5 yoy 3%1%-2%462.9 530.9 564.2 600.3 yoy 15%6%6%557.4 589.4 607.2 629.4 yoy 6%3%4%394.8 450.5 585 662.9 yoy 14%30%13%/30%29%27%25%/17%18%18%18%/20%20%19%19%/14%15%18%20%2023 2023 1,906 14.99%2022 25.85%8.37pct 2023 1,252 12.8%2022 18.5%69.2%3.8pct 21 71.0%70.1%55.0%2023 63.8%2022 64.7%/2024 75%28 2019-2023%29%=-12 2021-2023 2021 2022 2023 2024 60%67%71%75%60%65%70.1%75%46%50%55%2 2024 2024Q1 2024Q1 4,977 4.2%5.7pct 4,327 4.4%3.2pct 1 2 2B 2024Q1 407 6.1%2024-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%05001,0001,5002,0002,5002019 2020 2021 2022 2023三大运营商自由现金流总和（亿元）yoy（%）0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023三大运营商合计分红率（%）三大运营商分红/自由现金流（%）22 30 2021Q1-2024Q1%31 2021Q1-2024Q1%ARPU 2024Q1 ARPU 1 2024 3/9.96/4.12/3.37 2023 0.05/0.04/0.04 5G 7.99/3.29/2.69 5G 80.20%/79.85%/79.82%5G 80%2024 3/3.05/1.92/1.15 2023 0.07/0.02/0.02 2 ARPU 2024Q1 ARPU 47.9 45.8 0.9%5G 5G 2024Q1 ARPU 39.9 48.6 1.8%2.1%32 2022Q1-2024Q1 ARPU/33 2022Q1-2024Q1 ARPU/2024Q1 1,174 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1 2024Q1三大运营商营业收入（亿元）三大运营商通服收入（亿元）营业收入yoy（%）通服收入yoy（%）0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0501001502002503003504004502021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1 2024Q1三大运营商归母净利润（亿元）归母净利润yoy（%）44444545464647474848492022Q1 2023Q1 2024Q1中国移动 中国电信30323436384042444648502022Q1 2023Q1 2024Q1中国移动 中国电信 23 12.2%26.5%2023 5.3pct 2024Q1 17.4%1 2023 2024 2 2024Q1 37.3%34 2023.03-2024.03%35 2023.03-2024.03%1 ARPU 2 3 36 PEBand 37 PBBand 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000新兴业务累计收入（亿元）新兴业务yoy（%）0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%云业务增速（%）大数据业务增速（%）物联网业务增速（%）10 x15x20 x25x40 x050010001500200025003000350040004500Sep/21 Mar/22 Sep/22 Mar/231.0 x1.5x2.0 x2.5x3.0 x0200400600800100012001400Sep/21 Mar/22 Sep/22 Mar/23 24 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%
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