资源描述
出 口 成为机械行 业重要驱动 力-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%020004000600080001000012000140002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023:SITC:74()yoy-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0200400600800100012001400:SITC:74()yoy-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0501001502002503003504004502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023yoy yoy yoy-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%05101520253035404550yoy0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0246810121421M1-221M321M421M521M621M721M821M921M10-1121M1222M1-222M322M422M522M622M722M822M922M10-1122M1223M1-223M323M423M523M623M723M823M923M10-1123M1224M1-224M3:()yoy-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2020 2021 2022 2023-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2020/03 2020/06 2020/09 2020/12 2021/03 2021/06 2021/09 2021/12 2022/03 2022/06 2022/09 2022/12 2023/03 2023/06 2023/09 2023/12 2024/03:():():()-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%70%90%110%130%150%2020/032020/042020/052020/062020/072020/082020/092020/102020/112020/122021/012021/022021/032021/042021/052021/062021/072021/082021/092021/102021/112021/122022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022023/032023/042023/052023/062023/072023/082023/092023/102023/112023/122024/012024/022024/03:():()3035404550556065702009/102010/042010/102011/042011/102012/042012/102013/042013/102014/042014/102015/042015/102016/042016/102017/042017/102018/042018/102019/042019/102020/042020/102021/042021/102022/042022/102023/042023/102024/04:PMI:PMI:PMI:(ISM):PMI-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2000/01/032001/01/032002/01/032003/01/032004/01/032005/01/032006/01/032007/01/032008/01/032009/01/032010/01/032011/01/032012/01/032013/01/032014/01/032015/01/032016/01/032017/01/032018/01/032019/01/032020/01/032021/01/032022/01/032023/01/032024/01/03CRB:矿 山 机械：下游 需求高景气，国 产 设 备厂商获切 入机遇13010020030040050060070080001002003004005006007008009001000(1991 1 100)0501001502002503003504004500100200300400500600700800900100001002003004005006007008009002020 2021 2022 2023 2024E-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0510152025303540452012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023yoy-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%01234567892012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023yoy0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0510152025303540452022 2023 2024 2023 yoy 2024 yoy-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.01-21-31-41-51-61-71-81-91-101-111-122022 2023 2024 2023 yoy 2024 yoy-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0204060801001201402008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023yoy yoy-400%-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%-500501001502002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022yoy-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%050010001500200025002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022yoy-1-0.500.511.522.5YoY船 舶：全球竞争力 持续提升21-100010020030040050060070005101520253035197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023DWT 10000+DWT DWT TEU0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0100200300400500600700800YOY-30-20-1001020304050铁 路 装 备：维 保需求 爆发增长，新 车需求 持续复 苏270501001502002503003504002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1-4M24()()()-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01000200030004000500060007000800090002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1-4M24YOY0204060801001201401601802019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1-5M24350-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%050010001500200025002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q24YOY-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0204060801001201402017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q24YOY工 程 机械：出口增长延续，内需企稳34-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%050100150200250yoy0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2022 20230123456789102022 2023-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%02000400060008000100001200014000160002022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022023/032023/042023/052023/062023/072023/082023/092023/102023/112023/122024/012024/022024/032024/04yoy-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0500001000001500002000002500003000002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023yoy38通 用 机械：全球竞争力提升，国 内 需 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2021 2022 2023YoY/0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0510152025303540452012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230%5%10%15%20%25%30%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230%2%4%6%8%10%12%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q24-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q24-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0501001502002502014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023*yoy-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0100020003000400050006000700080009000:()yoy 0501001502002502020 2022 2023E 2030E()02468101214:/:/-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0123456782018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q24()YoY-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0246810122018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023()yoy 52-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0501001502002503003504004505002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023YoY53-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%1-02 1-03 1-04 1-05 1-06 1-07 1-08 1-09 1-10 1-11 1-122021 2022 2023 2024-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%450%050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000YoY540%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0510152025YoY0%5%10%15%20%25%01020304050607080902022 2023 1Q2024YoY55565.05.56.06.57.07.52021 2022 2023/57-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1Q2024YoY9.49.69.81010.210.410.610.81111.211.400.20.40.60.811.22023 1Q2024/农 机：出口 高增，拖拉机 大型化 带 动 龙头持 续集中580%10%20%30%40%50%0246810122020 2021 2022 2023()yoy 0%10%20%30%40%010002000300040005000600070002020 2021 2022 2023(/)yoy-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002502004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024()yoy 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