2023-2024年海外消费策略分析报告.pdf

2023-2024 分析报告 EPS PE 1 17 2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E2313.HK 99.252.24 2.86 3.53 37.19 30.07 24.36 2199.HK 3.670.43 0.39 0.49 8.23 9.41 7.49 0669.HK 99.350.6 0.66 0.74 33.3 19.33 17.24 1368.HK 10.020.35 0.43 0.52 24.3 20.19 16.69 2020.HK 114.22.86 2.75 3.33 32.2 35.98 29.71 2331.HK 701.53 1.83 2.29 42.8 33.14 26.48 3998.HK 4.340.19 0.22 0.25 19.59 17.09 15.04 LULU.O 315.477.63 9.75 11.38 42.7 32.36 27.72 RMS.PA 162923.29 31.02 38.12 66.5 52.51 42.73 RACE.NY 235.92 4.5 4.8 5.36 45.5845.39 40.64 A EPS EPS A EPS EPS EPS FY2022A FY2023E FY2024E EPS EPS=0.8664 2022 2022 2013-2019 8.2%5.3%2012-2014 10%2021 13.4%(2016 8.8%)37.7%361 2020 16.8%2021 9.5%2,486 2014-2021 CAGR 4.8%2022 2019 2025 2022-2025 CAGR 18%SUV“”/2022-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2022-01-04 2022-02-04 2022-03-04 2022-04-04 2022-05-04 2022-06-04 2022-07-04 2022-08-04 2022-09-04 2022-10-04 2022-11-04 2022-12-042022 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Nike&Adidas 1.6 1.7 1.8 2021-2022&2022 1.9 1.1 2020 02468101214-4-202468101214161977-01-311977-10-311978-07-311979-04-301980-01-311980-10-311981-07-311982-04-301982-10-311983-05-251983-08-311984-03-311984-09-201984-12-061985-03-311985-08-211986-02-281986-06-301987-01-051987-07-311987-12-311988-05-251988-08-311989-01-311989-06-061989-11-061990-06-301990-12-071991-04-301991-11-061992-04-301992-11-301993-08-311994-03-311994-09-301995-04-301995-12-191996-08-311997-04-301998-01-311998-09-301999-04-301999-11-302000-05-312001-01-312001-06-302001-11-302002-07-312003-03-312003-11-302004-08-102005-01-312005-07-312005-12-312006-06-302007-03-312007-11-302008-04-302008-11-302009-07-312010-04-302011-01-312011-10-312012-07-312013-04-302014-01-312014-10-312015-07-312016-03-312016-12-152017-06-302018-02-282018-09-272019-04-302019-11-302020-06-302021-03-312021-12-312022-06-302022-12-31%2022%PCE%:PCE:020406080100120:1.2 1.3 23 16 20 19 21 23 4 7(2)(11)(6)(7)(7)2 4 14 19 32 46 27 8(9)(22)(22)(9)15 35 72 43 27 15 1713 14 121915 5 8(2)4 3 4 6 5 9 12(19)(35)(7)(5)11 42(4)(7)1 10 11 13 8(60)(40)(20)02040608001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000(mm)%(m m)(m m)yoy%yoy(%)11812 119746 6940 1 17121573115-215-707152344 434868 6 5 50571310 10747105-38-193961615-1417-60-40-2002040608010012002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000($mm)%($mm)($mm)yoy%yoy(%)1.4 2022Q3 FOB 2023 2022 2022.9 65%85%9-80-60-40-20020406080100120 yoy-yoy-100-80-60-40-20020406080 yoy-yoy 1.5 Nike&Adidas 2021Q1:2020Q2 2022H1 CEO 2022H1+2021Q4(50)050100150 yoy(%)North America EMEA Greater China APLA(70)(20)3080130180230 yoy(%)EMEA Greater China Asia Pacific North America Latin America1.6 024681012141618201959-01 1963-01 1967-01 1971-01 1975-01 1979-01 1983-01 1987-01 1991-01 1995-01 1999-01 2003-01 2007-01 2011-01 2015-01 2019-01:%024681012141618200 1 2 3 4 5 6 7%2022 2023 2024 2025 1.7 1.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.002007-012007-042007-072007-102008-012008-042008-072008-102009-012009-042009-072009-102010-012010-042010-072010-102011-012011-042011-072011-102012-012012-042012-072012-102013-012013-042013-072013-102014-012014-042014-072014-102015-012015-042015-072015-102016-012016-042016-072016-102017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-07&2020.4-2020.6:2022 2020 COVID-19 2008 2012 1.8 2021-2022&2022-&20221.9 2313.HK 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()23845 27214 31896 36608(%)4 14 17 15 3372 4305 5312 6300(%)-34%28%23%19%0669.HK 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()13203 14293 16132 18598(%)35 8 13 15()1099 1207 1352 1643(%)37 10 12 22 2199.HK FY 2022A FY 2023E FY 2024E FY 2025E()8347 8303 9184 10152(%)40-1 11 11()521 478 605 687(%)315-8 27 14 2.1.1 2.1.2 2022 2.1.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5.1 2.5.2 2007 2021 CAGR 10.9%2.6 2.7 1H22 2.8 2.9+2.10 lululemon 2.1.1 49.5%48.8%55.9%50.7%50.0%56.8%59.1%63.2%60.3%62.0%40.5%38.0%41.8%41.7%42.0%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H1 14.5%15.7%24.9%21.0%21.3%24.6%26.6%25.9%19.2%22.3%13.6%9.3%16.5%12.1%16.2%5%10%15%20%25%30%2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H12020H1-2022H1 11.1%12.3%19.2%16.6%17.6%11.3%16.8%16.8%14.6%13.8%6.7%5.9%10.3%8.2%10.4%5%7%9%11%13%15%17%19%21%2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H12020H1-2022H1 2022Q2 2022H1/50%/17.6%/21.3%-5.9pct/-1.6pct/-3.6pct 2023 2022H1/62%/13.8%/22.3%-1.1pct/-3.0pct/-3.6pct:2022H1/42%/10.4%/16.2%+0.2pct/+0.1pct/-0.3pct 2020H1-2022H1 2.1.2 2022 2016-2021 2015 361 2016 2021 2016 6800 2016 7402 2019 10516 2016 361 6357 2021 10%15%11%17%FILA 2021 2016 22%2184 2018 2019 2016-2021 7,4028,8608026,8006,3 5 76,9509,4671,0866,0 0 05,8086,72110,0571,6526,2305,5396,6 7 110,5161,9516,3795,5196,2619,9222,0066,0215,1656,3189,4032,0 5 46,1515,270 361 F I L A-15%-11%+1 5 6%-10%-17%20212018 20202019 201720161,0452,811 1,1422,5887,6058,7781,1822,3958,3029,1991,1522,5338,3439,8331,0962,1858,3959,0751,0482,1847,6958,417-11%-22%-8%-14%2017 2019201620212020 2018 361 2016-2021 Wind Statista*FILA 2016-2021 2021%2.1.3 3%7%FILA22%74%20%76%2020 FILA 71156464 4233319221633121431112 FILA 2021 1000 11,19322,1737,5908,637 FILA 2021 4 2021/FILA FILA FILA 2 GeoQ 361 2021 2.2 73 67 84 67 53 53 54 86 86 134 120 116 125 145 79 73 93 73 77 76 104 0204060801001201401602019H1 2019 2020H1 2020 2021H1 2021 2022H1 24 21 21 17 13 12 14 34 34 46 39 27 26 22 117 111 152 135 131 122 114 0204060801001201401602019H1 2019 2020H1 2020 2021H1 2021 2022H1 67 63 78 63 52 48 49 64 76 89 79 44 53 53 89 89 139 105 112 118 138 0204060801001201401602019H1 2019 2020H1 2020 2021H1 2021 2022H1 Wind 2017-2022 TOP102.3 2017-2022 CR10 13%2022 9 361 9 1.5%6 2022 9.5%4.7%2016-2021 TOP10 2016-2021 CR10 6 2021 CR10 78.3%CR3 40%2019 18.8%2020-2021 2019 2021 20.0%19.1%16.918.1 18.7 18.820.0 19.116.118.319.2 18.8 17.114.68.18.49.0 9.18.69.36.66.26.0 6.56.88.22.32.63.85.5 6.66.93.03.94.95.35.96.65.64.54.74.84.6 4.82.02.02.23.13.6 4.04.23.83.12.92.7 2.62.32.32.22.12.2 2.267.170.173.876.978.1 78.32016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 FILA 361 CR107.08.39.410.39.5 9.55.46.57.16.45.94.72.02.83.44.04.44.32.22.52.92.93.54.21.81.92.32.4 3.3 4.21.82.02.12.12.33.01.31.62.32.72.62.90.40.71.11.51.71.91.61.41.31.41.41.51.21.11.11.01.11.324.728.833.034.735.737.52017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 361 CR102.4 36 17%1 2 P4U A-FlashFoam FlashFoam FlashFoam 160 TPU Dyneema 15 30%ISPO 4 5%-10%361 FLASHLITE 2.0 騛 Q EVA PEBAEVA+P4U+PEBATPU PEBA EVA+TPU2013-2021 2025 GDP 2%2013 2021 CAGR 8.48%CAGR 7.79%2021 2 2025 2.8 2.5.1 2016-2019 2020 2030 2016-2019 4 2016 4.06 2019 4.28 1.7%-1.9%2030 5 2020-2030 2.56%5.6 4.064.134.214.284.355.61.7%1.9%1.7%1.6%1%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%01234562016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2030E yoy%3018,31120,16721,96623,82125,97428,22830,73332,18935,12813,22014,49115,71217,11118,32219,85321,559 21,21024,1000.005,000.0010,000.0015,000.0020,000.0025,000.0030,000.0035,000.0040,000.002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22.80.01.02.03.02021 2025E2021 2 2025 2.8 2007-2021 2022 4%2007-2021 CAGR 11.7%2007-2021 CAGR 7.5%35%24%T 31%29%2007-2021 790 1039 1154 1306 1418 1392 1347 1483 1669 1904 2215 2691 3199 3123 3718 32%11%13%9%-2%-3%10%13%14%16%21%19%-2%19%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%05001000150020002500300035004000 YOY%1791 1936 2075 2301 2605 2909 3209 3416 3540 3620 3819 4113 4352 4163 4938 32%11%13%9%-2%-3%10%13%14%16%21%19%-2%19%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0100020003000400050006000 YOY%8%6%14%13%24%35%2022 4%12%8%9%11%29%31%T 2.5.2 2007 2021 C A G R 11.7%2.6 47.3%41.2%45.1%39.7%54.5%47.6%53.5%49.6%54.6%39.5%5.1%5.3%5.3%5.7%6.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H12020H1-2022H1 61.8 82.8 102.0 123.8 124.1 6.8 10.2 19.6 20.5 21.9-1.2%8.7%65.0%49.5%21.7%-14.1%44.2%187.2%101.8%11.6%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0204060801001201402020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H1()YoY YoY28%30%30%29%30%22%24%25%21%23%50%46%45%50%47%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H12022H1 47%18%23%15%12%9%82%77%85%88%91%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H1 2.7 1H22146.7 208.4 228.1 265.2 259.7 16.6 35.0 38.4 38.8 35.9-1.0%9.0%55.5%27.2%13.8%-33.2%22.5%131.6%10.7%-6.6%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0501001502002503002020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H1()YoY YoY60.8%51.2%46.2%46.4%51.5%34.4%44.1%48.8%47.5%41.5%4.8%4.7%5.0%6.1%7.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018H1 2019H1 2020H1 2021H1 2022H12018H1-2022H1 FILA FILA 60.0%61.7%58.0%58.1%54.1%36.4%35.3%38.7%38.9%42.8%3.5%3.0%3.3%3.1%3.2%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H12020H1-2022H1 16%35.0%36.1%49.7%31.3%33%34.1%34.3%34.2%68.7%51%30.9%29.6%16.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H1 DTC DTC 2.8 61.3%62.2%63.0%56.5%59.5%36.4%36.2%35.1%41.4%38.5%2.3%1.7%1.9%2.0%2.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H12022H1 87 86.8 8789.2 86.212.512.0 11.28.7 11.10.51.2 1.82.1 2.775808590951002020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H12022H1%33.6 48.3 36.8 44.9 41.3 58.8 56.8 4.6 2.6 2.5 2.7 4.3 4.8 5.9 9.6%-6.9%12.4%30.8%37.5%-46.5%0.2%72.0%81.7%38.4%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0102030405060702019H1 2019H2 2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H12022H1()YoY YoY2.9+(1368.HK)2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()10013 13034 16389 19578(%)23 30 26 19 908 1,121 1,365 1,612(%)10013 13034 16389 19578(2331.HK)2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 22572 26750 31975 38347(%)56 19 20 20 4011 4780 5997 6852(%)136 19 25 14(2020.HK)2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()49328 53640 62530 73475(%)39 9 17 18()7720 7473 9026 10851(%)50-3 21 20(3998.HK)FY 2022 FY 2023E FY 2024E FY 2025E()16214 18581 21309 24448(%)19 15 15 15()2062 2387 2768 3217(%)21 16 16 16 2.10 lu lu le m o n Lululemon-Mix(%)FY2021A FY2022E 1Q23E 2Q23E 3Q23E 4Q23E FY2023E 1Q24E 2Q24E 3Q24E 4Q24E FY2024E 100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%45%47%49%52%54%45%50%51%54%56%45%51%DTC 44%43%42%38%36%47%41%40%37%35%47%40%11%10%9%10%10%8%9%9%9%9%8%9%Lululemon-FY2021A FY2022E 1Q23E 2Q23E 3Q23E 4Q23E FY2023E 1Q24E 2Q24E 3Q24E 4Q24E FY2024E 6,257 7,870 1,973 2,243 2,172 3,165 9,554 2,369 2,745 2,604 3,792 11,510%yoy42%26%22%20%21%22%21%20%22%20%20%20%qoq-24%14%-3%46%16%-5%46%2,8213,696 959 1,172 1,176 1,425 4,731 1,203 1,470 1,458 1,717 5,848%yoy70%31%31%30%27%26%28%25%25%24%20%24%qoq-15%22%0%21%-16%22%-1%18%DTC2,7783,405 829 853 784 1,473 3,939 954 1,024 901 1,767 4,646%yoy22%23%15%10%15%20%16%15%20%15%20%18%qoq-32%3%-8%88%-35%7%-12%96%657769 185 218 213 268 884 212 251 245 308 1,016%yoy43%17%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%qoq-21%18%-3%26%-21%18%-3%26%3.1 3.2 3.3 3.1 Statista 2014-2019 5.7%2020 2,271 16.8%2021 9.5%2,486 2020 2014-2019 8.6%2014-2021 CAGR 4.8%2020 352.7 2019 14.4%2020 15.5%2066228023022345242227282271248610.4%1.0%1.9%3.3%12.6%-16.8%9.5%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0500100015002000250030002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212014-2021%260.7305.9 303.1313.4338.5393.8352.7360.812.6%13.4%13.2%13.4%14.0%14.4%15.5%14.5%-50501502503504505502014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212014-2021%3.2 1 2 0 2 3 2 3 6,389.48,982.011,532.513,942.116,778.219,128.8-7.2%40.6%28.4%21%20%14%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022-2025 CAGR 18%()YOY(%)1,385.402,445.003,258.024,003.454,936.285,357.75-9.3476.4833.2522.88 23.308.54-20-10010203040506070809001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022-2025 CAGR 18%()YOY(%)3,749 5,228 6,701 8,155 9,986 11,410 1,573 2,141 2,590 3,024 3,362 3,631 108 155 208 247 284 312 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E()Asia-Pacific Europe Americas Other3,209 4,091 4,933 6,156 7,773 8,943 1,409 2,219 3,102 3,676 4,299 4,870 452 669 864 1,000 1,122 1,256 218 280 322 388 454 518 300 2,300 4,300 6,300 8,300 10,300 12,300 14,300 16,300 18,3002020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E()3.3 5,643 6,074 6,381 6,853 7,755 6,440 8,206 9,894 1,545 1,607 1,855 1,898 2,209 1,965 2,619 3,169 4%15%2%16%-11%33%21%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%-2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 4 yoy%yoy%26.1%94.4%-3.5%20.1%10.0%202223428840059552834661771311.1%12.7%15.5%23.1%18.6%14.5%19.9%19.1%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%01002003004005006007008002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%692164172874208768306288117230610294312961480491,-2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221,545 1,6071,855 1,8982,2091,9652,6193,1692,1102,2702,577 2,5752,8392,3913,0993,7272015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 FY2022 20%,2023E 2024E()14,279 15,994 m 5,289 5,724 m 988 1,069 2022 Q3 19%SUV Wind “”;/;