资源描述
10 33bp 2018/1124bp A 2004 11 A A-2016 A B-2008 Q4 A C-2018 A 2020 C 50bp 6 A 1 A 2 A 3 A 20052006 2012 2015 2018 A 2015 2018 Q4 2018 10 193 1 2011Q42012Q1 2 2015 A A rQsPmMvNnOmRuNrRqPmPtQaQcM9PnPrRmOmOfQmMnOiNpMrQaQrQsMxNnOmOvPpOvN A A 2018 2018 1 A 2006 2 A 2012 3 2019 A 2018 11 A ERP 12 18 A 2019 Q1 A A 2019 Q1 2006 2019 2006 2019 1 0 10 A-A B-A C-A Wind 2009/1/5 2009/6/22 A 46 123-77 64.5%54.0%63.7%16.0%-3.7%2012/12/4 2013/3/8 A 3 44-41 21.1%17.4%22.3%43.9%5.9%10.2%2013/5/2 2013/7/5 A 10 107-97-4.3%-7.7%-9.1%15.7%-8.0%2.1%2016/7/6 2016/11/23 A 1 98-97 8.3%7.4%8.0%-3.4%10.6%5.0%2008/9/3 2008/12/8 B-124-94-30-5.3%-8.2%-6.7%-26.9%-28.6%2004/12/6 2006/5/12 C-239 95-334 16.6%19.6%22.3%18.6%8.5%2009/11/30 2010/3/25 C-14 70-84-3.5%-5.5%-8.0%-4.8%6.4%2011/9/22 2012/3/19 C-51 67-118-2.4%-1.3%-2.1%-8.6%17.9%24.8%2015/4/13 2015/12/29 C-86 38-124-3.0%-13.5%-14.9%6.7%-21.5%-0.7%2017/11/27 2018/11/8 C-47 92-139-24.5%-20.7%-20.7%-24.5%-11.7%7.9%2020/11/27 2022/3/25 C-50 164-214-3.9%-5.8%-16.2%0.7%-20.4%24.9%C C Wind 1 2004/12/6 2006/5/12 2 2008/9/3 2008/12/8 3 2009/1/5 2009/6/22 4 2009/11/30 2010/3/25 5 2011/9/22 2012/3/19 6 2012/12/4 2013/3/87 2013/5/2 2013/7/58 2015/4/13 2015/12/29 9 2016/7/6 2016/11/23 10 2017/11/27 2018/11/8 11 2020/11/27 2022/3/25 010002000300040005000600070008000-2.5-1.5-0.50.51.52.53.52002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202210%A 610 C Wind 10 11 C-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.511.522.501234562002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202210%:10%:10%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11010002000300040005000600070008000-3-2-101232002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202210%A 7 A 50bp 6 C 1 A 2 A 3 1 5 8 10 11 1 2004/12/6 2006/5/12-239 95-334 16.6%19.6%22.3%18.6%8.5%3.0%5.6%5 2011/9/22 2012/3/19-51 67-118-2.4%-1.3%-2.1%-8.6%17.9%24.8%1.0%0.3%-6.2%8 2015/4/13 2015/12/29-86 38-124-3.0%-13.5%-14.9%6.7%-21.5%-0.7%-10.5%-11.9%9.7%10 2017/11/27 2018/11/8-47 92-139-24.5%-20.7%-20.7%-24.5%-11.7%7.9%3.8%3.8%0.0%11 2020/11/27 2022/3/25-50 164-214-3.9%-5.8%-16.2%0.7%-20.4%24.9%-1.8%-12.2%4.7%Wind 4 6 40%41%10%QDII 9%2021 38%39%40%41%42%43%44%45%8%9%9%10%10%11%2021/01 2021/03 2021/05 2021/07 2021/09 2021/11 2022/01 2022/03 Wind 78516.6,40%18147.3,9%79809.4,41%19305.8,10%20220311 A Wind-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022wind A 010002000300040005000600070008000-4-3-2-101232000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202210Y%A A A 02000400060008000100001200014000160001800000.511.522.532014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202110Y%:-6000-4000-2000020004000600080001000000.511.522.532014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 10Y%-500-400-300-200-100010020030040050060000.511.522.532014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021:10Y%Wind-2000002000040000600008000010000012000014000016000018000020000000.511.522.532014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202110Y%2018 2018 21Q4 2018 Q4 ERP 2019 Q1 Wind-3%-2%-2%-1%-1%0%1%1%2%2%3%2010-042010-102011-042011-102012-042012-102013-042013-102014-042014-102015-042015-102016-042016-102017-042017-102018-042018-102019-042019-102020-042020-102021-042021-10 100ERPERP(2010)+1std-1std2018/12/31,75.7%2019/3/31,82.4%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%2005 3 2005 12 2006 9 2007 6 2008 3 2008 12 2009 9 2010 6 2011 3 2011 12 2012 9 2013 6 2014 3 2014 12 2015 9 2016 6 2017 3 2017 12 2018 9 2019 6 2020 3 2020 12 2021 9&2018 2018Q3 20 11 Wind 457-777 1217 14656-10099 3284-2008 8682 353-1127 1330-379 3323-753-7195-6096-6037 481 12682-8659-5254-14141-633-6058-6906 2932 4038 4589-10591-3608 4671-2915 5817 11047 16745-213-1478 421-5028-5052-1316-1138 2996 881-551-2807-1917 1090-62486-72227 1978 50 1772 19017 15250 4950-4182 999 3210-9623-299 1893 21968 5210 7771 2800-1768-3258-1961-2214 833-582 942 10594 2457 891-579 234-225-734 302-1825-253 1474-1119 26826-14300 9368-1764 1084 460-1062 6254 2208-988 375 404 702 2823 8650 A 2018 10 193 11 A 10 12 18 300 12 A A 2019 Q1 Wind 300 500-0.40.10.61.11.62.12.600.20.40.60.811.21.41.62018-01 2018-07 2019-01 2019-07 300 500 10%2018.10 2018.11.3 2018.11.8 2018.12.182018.12.24 2019.1.3 300 2018 A C/1 2011 2 2015 3 2018 0.50.70.91.11.31.51.71.92.12.3-0.500.511.522.532010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202210%/300 58101100.511.522.5-2-101234562010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20223%/300 Wind C Wind C 2018 3 2009/1/5 2009/6/22 46 123-77 71.1%64.8%66.8%61.6%72.1%76.3%6 2012/12/4 2013/3/8 3 44-41 23.6%29.1%29.5%24.5%22.6%23.3%9 2016/7/6 2016/11/23 1 98-97 6.8%4.3%3.0%11.0%9.5%8.6%7 2013/5/2 2013/7/5 10 107-97-9.1%-0.1%3.8%-11.1%-6.2%-3.4%2 2008/9/3 2008/12/8-124-94-30-0.5%-6.0%-0.4%-6.9%-7.6%-0.1%1 2004/12/6 2006/5/12-239 95-334 23.3%26.1%25.6%19.4%23.1%16.2%4 2009/11/30 2010/3/25-14 70-84-10.8%-3.1%7.6%-6.2%-1.3%7.2%5 2011/9/22 2012/3/19-51 67-118-1.4%-6.2%-8.7%3.5%-5.3%-11.3%8 2015/4/13 2015/12/29-86 38-124-5.3%-11.9%-2.6%-12.8%-10.3%-6.9%10 2017/11/27 2018/11/8-47 92-139-30.6%-29.7%-33.2%-13.6%-25.0%-23.3%11 2020/11/27 2022/3/25-50 164-214-9.1%-4.0%4.8%-17.1%-3.9%7.7%4 4 7 5 4 6 3 2009/1/5 2009/6/22 A 6.6%0.3%2.3%-2.9%7.6%11.8%6 2012/12/4 2013/3/8 A 2.5%8.0%8.4%3.5%1.6%2.2%9 2016/7/6 2016/11/23 A-1.5%-4.0%-5.3%2.7%1.2%0.4%7 2013/5/2 2013/7/5 A-4.8%4.2%8.1%-6.8%-1.9%0.9%2 2008/9/3 2008/12/8 B 4.8%-0.7%4.9%-1.7%-2.4%5.2%1 2004/12/6 2006/5/12 C 6.6%9.4%9.0%2.7%6.5%-0.4%4 2009/11/30 2010/3/25 C-7.3%0.4%11.1%-2.7%2.2%10.7%5 2011/9/22 2012/3/19 C 0.9%-3.8%-6.4%5.9%-2.9%-9.0%8 2015/4/13 2015/12/29 C-2.3%-8.9%0.4%-9.7%-7.2%-3.8%10 2017/11/27 2018/11/8 C-6.1%-5.2%-8.7%10.9%-0.6%1.2%11 2020/11/27 2022/3/25 C-5.1%-0.1%8.7%-13.1%0.0%11.6%5 5 8 5 6 8 bp10 Wind 20%20%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2004/12/6 2008/9/3 2009/1/5 2009/11/30 2011/9/22 2012/12/4 2013/5/2 2015/4/13 2016/7/6 2017/11/27 2020/11/27 2006/5/12 2008/12/8 2009/6/22 2010/3/25 2012/3/19 2013/3/8 2013/7/5 2015/12/29 2016/11/23 2018/11/8 2022/3/25 4%5%36%5%-9%29%-4%13%3%-24%-6%1 1 14%-11%53%-3%-11%34%-5%5%10%-25%25%1 1 2%-7%48%-10%-12%10%-14%-26%15%-21%16%3 5 93%-7%110%-14%-7%16%-13%-15%1%-34%41%3 5-16%-10%71%14%-10%36%11%8%3%-39%-9%3 2-8%13%60%3%-1%21%-7%1%12%-26%-35%2 2 70%-6%44%-3%2%16%5%2%2%-16%-14%4 2-16%-8%71%8%-10%23%-7%13%10%-33%-12%1 1-10%-12%58%6%-12%31%-4%17%9%-35%-9%1 4 6%10%43%4%-8%35%4%1%8%-17%-9%3 1-5%7%33%-4%-4%26%-4%-4%9%-30%9%0 1 3%-11%56%3%-9%18%-10%-5%5%-26%-7%0 1 19%10%104%-15%-2%11%-4%8%13%-27%-19%2 3 46%-3%58%3%-8%20%-6%-6%12%-29%-25%0 1 28%-13%77%10%-2%20%-3%17%7%-7%-3%3 1-6%-7%87%8%-11%34%-3%14%15%-41%19%5 2-3%6%65%3%-13%20%-12%-8%23%-24%-15%1 2 31%18%27%-4%-9%14%-6%-18%26%-30%4%2 3 50%20%45%1%-11%32%4%0%2%-35%46%4 1 61%-6%70%1%-12%48%3%-1%-6%-29%-3%2 2 0%0%52%19%-3%33%13%1%-2%-21%-17%2 2 18%9%48%17%9%38%24%8%1%-39%-23%4 3-9%12%38%5%-9%30%2%11%8%-35%-14%2 3 52%-19%87%-4%6%37%-13%-9%7%-9%-10%5 2 48%-15%66%-8%1%29%-15%-29%9%-23%-32%2 5 6%-3%103%-7%-7%27%-2%2%5%-34%-8%1 1 26%6%63%0%-10%25%-6%-6%8%-34%-4%0 0 5%-16%108%-20%-7%17%-21%-23%22%-22%65%3 5 36%-8%44%-5%2%22%-3%-17%11%-9%8%2 2-9%4%60%8%-5%51%6%-2%14%-44%-3%3 2 23%1%53%18%-8%33%-8%-2%8%-24%-12%1 0 A A 2018 1 A 2006 2 A 2012 3 2018 A 1 5 8 10 11010002000300040005000600070008000-3-2-101232002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202210%A 158 10 2006/5/12 2008/1/18 138-153 291 308.1%223.2%317.7%49.1%2.6%2012/3/19 2012/11/28-1-76 75-18.2%-18.1%-19.0%-22.0%2.8%0.0%2015/12/29 2016/7/13 4-84 88-13.7%-14.1%-12.7%-16.9%-3.1%3.6%2018/11/8 2020/7/8-42-257 215 52.3%29.1%48.6%99.5%-0.4%12.9%Wind 2006 2019 2006 2019 1 01234562003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20223M%10Y%3M%10Y%-3.5-2.5-1.5-0.50.51.52.53.54.52002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202210 5 1 3%Wind Wind 10Y 3M 19 Wind 2004/8/17 2006/10/24-1126-189 36.9%32.7%34.3%48.1%27.3%-4.2%-2.6%2017/12/25 2019/3/11-316-90-8.0%-7.7%-7.7%-1.6%-3.6%3.7%0.3%0.3%6.4%2004/8/17 2006/5/12-1121-217 17.8%17.8%20.9%37.9%19.4%0.0%3.1%2017/12/25 2018/11/8-271-115-24.0%-19.7%-20.5%-24.3%-11.3%4.6%4.3%3.5%-0.3%2006/5/12 2006/10/24-6 28 16.2%12.6%11.1%7.4%6.7%-3.6%-5.1%2018/11/8 2019/3/11-46 26 21.0%14.8%16.1%29.9%8.7%-0.8%-6.2%-4.9%8.9%2004/8/17 2006/10/24 38.0%49.2%51.1%29.7%42.7%47.4%1.1%12.4%14.2%-7.2%5.8%10.5%2017/12/25 2019/3/11-9.6%-13.9%-15.9%-6.0%-11.2%-8.1%-1.6%-5.9%-7.9%2.0%-3.2%-0.1%2004/8/17 2006/5/12 22.1%30.7%29.4%17.9%25.7%22.4%4.3%12.9%11.6%0.1%7.9%4.6%2017/12/25 2018/11/8-29.0%-30.3%-33.2%-12.6%-25.3%-24.4%-5.0%-6.3%-9.2%11.4%-1.4%-0.5%2006/5/12 2006/10/24 13.0%14.2%16.8%10.1%13.5%20.4%-3.1%-2.0%0.6%-6.1%-2.7%4.2%2018/11/8 2019/3/11 27.3%23.5%25.8%7.5%19.0%21.7%6.2%2.5%4.8%-13.5%-2.1%0.7%bp 3 1 10 1 2)-3.5-2.5-1.5-0.50.51.52.53.54.52002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%10 5 1 3 Wind Bloomberg Wind 00.511.522.533.544.5505101520253035402005-042005-082005-122006-042006-082006-122007-042007-082007-122008-042008-082008-122009-042009-082009-122010-042010-082010-122011-042011-082011-122012-042012-082012-122013-042013-082013-122014-042014-082014-122015-042015-082015-122016-042016-082016-122017-042017-082017-122018-042018-082018-122019-042019-082019-122020-042020-082020-122021-042021-082021-12:%7%:10:2.7%-3%2012 2012 2012 2022 2022 10 2.7%-3%Wind 22.533.544.552010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021:10%3%(2021/12/15)20 11 3(2022/3/22)3 20 4 10Y%3.60 3.30 3.00 2.83 2.70 2.50%-2.94-0.69 1.56 2.83 3.81 5.31 PMI 50-55 PMI PMI 2022 10 PMI 50-55 PMI 01234567893035404550556065701991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021:(ISM):PMI:10:%金融危机欧债危机油价暴跌科网泡沫东南亚金融危机墨西哥金融危机COVID-19 疫情 Wind 2022 0 2.2%2010 0.2%2.4%10Y 2.6%2.5%10Y 3%Wind-1.5-1-0.6-0.5 0 0.2 0.4 12.8 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.82.5 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.52.2 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.6 3.21.9 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.91.5 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.51.2-0.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.2 10Y%-2-101234562007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202210Y%10Y(TIPS)%10Y%Wind TMT 2021-06 29.7%88.2%8.8%8.4%30.1%-19.1%10.8%2021-09 2.9%66.7%18.5%-37.5%9.0%-56.0%-35.0%2021Q4E-2.0%34.7%-11.4%-38.4%-49.3%-63.3%-31.8%2022Q1E 5.2%31.1%-2.4%-6.7%15.5%-73.3%-31.9%2022Q2E-12.0%0.8%-12.5%-19.2%-7.1%-45.7%-35.3%2022Q3E-5.8%-3.8%-19.9%0.0%1.7%-33.3%-14.0%2022Q4E-3.5%-0.8%-15.6%5.9%-3.6%-21.7%8.6%2021E 28.4%76.9%24.5%6.0%33.2%-42.2%-2.6%2022E-4.7%5.4%-12.8%-9.4%2.0%-43.2%-23.1%TMT 2021-06 29.7%88.2%8.8%8.4%30.1%-19.1%10.8%2021-09 2.9%66.7%18.5%-37.5%9.0%-56.0%-35.0%2021Q4E-2.0%37.7%-15.7%-41.3%-51.7%-65.1%-35.1%2022Q1E 1.3%34.0%-10.6%-14.7%5.7%-75.6%-37.7%2022Q2E-12.9%5.1%-19.7%-21.7%-9.0%-46.8%-48.1%2022Q3E-10.1%-5.6%-27.2%-7.6%-0.2%-34.5%-25.5%2022Q4E-15.5%-13.1%-35.7%-9.6%-9.7%-26.6%1.8%2021E 28.4%77.7%23.7%5.9%33.1%-42.8%-3.2%2022E-8.9%4.1%-22.0%-15.4%-2.1%-45.7%-33.0%A A 2015 12 A A 2016 300 1 2019 300 2012 3-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%-2.5-1.5-0.50.51.52.53.52003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202210Y%300 ERP Wind A ERP A 0 Wind
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