20240605_海通证券_交通运输行业：油运大周期下的投资机会_15页.pdf

SAC S0850512070003 2024 6 5 79607 1.2.3.4.2 1ZBYuNnQoNrQtNtQtOtMrQ6M9RbRpNmMtRqMkPpPtNjMnNrOaQnNyRxNrNrPwMsRrN3 2024 0.6%5%1.3%6.8%1.4 2000 2024 4 BDTI BCTI 1126 1019 2000 67%75%2023 Q1 Q2 Q3 OPEC+Q4 1.HLWdW4Z7+eWIqT8bvCyGxpDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD5flHeB/zKvDyfSD34LjB0K 5 2023 VLCC/5/10 1.28/1.05/0.75 2000 87%/83%/83%1 1.VLCC 1 6&10 LNG 2020 2021 2024 LNG 2.10 LNG 7 2024 Q1 5 2000 93%/93%/85%10%16%2.8 15 15 capex 15 2.9 2000 20-30 20 17.88%7.33%2.&10 2024 5%6.8%2023-2028 3.2023 2023 101.31.16 1.83-0.49-0.121.49 0.33 0.31-0.1105.71-20020406080100120World Oil Supply102.3-1.2-0.60.5 0.5 0.6 0.13.5105.7-20020406080100120World Oil Demand(百万桶/天)11 4.12 13 1 2 OPEC+3 SAC S0850512070003 021-23219382 Email 14 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%15