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2009 1210 2024 06 12 1-2 3/2.58%-2.85%4 2.4%1.5%2.85%3.4%3.25%3.15%/4 2.58%-2.85%1=+0 2=1.78-1.93%2.03%-2.2%3.03%-3.54%1 2008 12 0.25%2011 30 2012 2 2014 2015 6 3 2024 1 2 3-W S0360522110001%()111 0.01()10,815.32 1.25()10,237.90 1.51%1M 6M 12M-2.2%-16.0%-24.7%1.2%-19.4%-16.9%2024 23 2024-06-11 2024 22 2024-06-04 2024 21 2024-05-27 2009 1210 1 2 1 2%2%2 3%-3.5%4%/2.58%-2.85%1.78-1.93%2.03%-2.2%3.03%-3.54%2024 1 2 3-W 0YEVxOsPpMrQpRnOrMpQnM9PbP6MnPpPmOrNlOpPqOfQpOnO8OmMzRMYmRmRwMtPnR 2009 1210 3.5.5.7 2.58%-2.85%.9.11.17.19.19 2009 1210 4 1.5 2.5 3 2021.5 4.6 5 4%.6 6 24 4 60.6 7.6 8.7 9 2020.7 10 2024 5 21 18.7 11 2009.8 12.8 13“517”.9 14 2.58%-2.85%.10 15.10 16 1.78%-1.93%.11 17 1.2%-1.5%.12 18 2.03%-2.2%.13 19.13 20.14 21 3.03%-3.54%.14 22.15 23.15 24.15 25 2011-2012 30.17 26 2012.17 27 2012.17 28 2012.18 29 2012 5.18 30 2014.18 V9nTKcm3xV4kaQsoOM4oOJDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD43RLeeXSg0FxIDJOM94jVL 2009 1210 5 1-2 2024 50 18%Zillow 2024 29.2%1 2 0102030405060西藏河南湖南湖北云南青海江苏陕西江西河北广西宁夏安徽山东四川浙江内蒙古山西贵州新疆福建黑龙江辽宁天津重庆甘肃吉林北京海南上海广东/-2020 3 2021 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%长春 重庆 沈阳 武汉 郑州 西安 杭州 天津 济南 南京 苏州 福州 上海 深圳 青岛 合肥 广州 厦门2021 Wind 2009 1210 6 60%1 2 4%4 5 4%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%2014-032014-092015-032015-092016-032016-092017-032017-092018-032018-092019-032019-092020-032020-092021-032021-092022-032022-092023-032023-092024-03(%)(%)2019 Wind 70 2023 5 2024 4 60 2023 6 24 4 60 7 0102030405060702011-012011-082012-032012-102013-052013-122014-072015-022015-092016-042016-112017-062018-012018-082019-032019-102020-052020-122021-072022-022022-092023-042023-1170 70 02000040000600008000010000012000014000016000023W123W323W523W723W923W1123W1323W1523W1723W1923W2123W2323W2523W2723W2923W3123W3323W3523W3723W3923W4123W4323W4523W4723W4923W5123W5324W224W424W624W824W1024W1224W1424W1624W1824W202023-2024 Wind 2009 1210 7 1 2020 2 2023 5.3 24 8 高价出让住宅用地房企杠杆基建投资招商补贴低价出让工业用地抵押贷款制造业固定资产投资工业化城市化农民工进城劳动剩余居民杠杆资本稀缺地方政府 9 2020 10 2024 5 21 18-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 05101520253035404550珠海惠州常州无锡深圳北京长春南宁福州武汉佛山嘉兴昆明南京厦门徐州苏州广州郑州宁波天津重庆济南青岛长沙成都上海西安合肥杭州 Wind 2024 5 2009 1210 8 1 2021 2009 1003 2 2023 2021 60%32%11 2009 12 051015202530200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 010020030040050060070080090010002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Wind Wind 2009 1210 9 2.58%-2.85%-1 2024 5 2.4%2 2022 20 1.5%3 2024 5 5 2.85%4 2024 5 17 5 3.4%3.25%3.15%13 517/2.58%-2.85%40%60%1 35%5%30%30%2.79%2 30%10%60%2.58%2009 1210 10 40%60%2.85%14 2.58%-2.85%自有现金 提取公积金作首付 商业贷款 公积金贷款占比 35%5%30%30%资金成本 2.40%1.50%3.40%2.85%自有现金 提取公积金作首付 商业贷款 公积金贷款占比 30%10%0%60%资金成本 2.40%1.50%3.15%2.85%自有现金 提取公积金作首付 商业贷款 公积金贷款占比 40%0%60%0%资金成本 2.40%1.50%3.15%2.85%三四线城市(无 公 积 金 贷 款）三四线城市（仅公积金贷款）首付 比例 40%贷款 60%加权成本加权成本加权成本2.79%2.58%2.85%首付 比例 40%首付 比例 40%贷款 60%贷款 60%一二线城市 Wind 15 商业贷款利率 3.85%3.50%3.25%3.15%3.05%2.85%一二线城市综合购房成本 2.93%2.82%2.75%2.72%2.7%2.63%三四线城市综合购房成本(仅公积金贷款）2.58%2.58%2.58%2.58%2.58%2.58%三四线城市综合购房成本(无公积金贷款）3.27%3.06%2.91%2.85%2.79%2.67%商业贷款利率下降测算 2009 1210 11/1 2 3 20/4 5-1=+0 2=1 2023 8.95 27%=+30 1.78%-1.93%16 1.78%-1.93%2023 89477 2 178954 27%/4026/20%2983+7009 1:1 3.15%2009 1210 12+30 163 35%/40%251/272 1.93%/1.78%2023 4.3-11.5/89-107 1.2%-1.5%1.8%17 1.2%-1.5%/玥 2023 3 2 100 115000 1150 11500 1.2%2005 3 2 95 80883 768 10200 1.6%3 2 135 85205 1150 13000 1.4%1995 2 1 77 70128 543 7000 1.5%2 2 98 70197 688 8000 1.4%3 2 100 82000 820 9000 1.3%2006 2 1 73 54821 398 5500 1.7%1 1 54 52029 281 4500 1.9%2008 3 1 89 78913 705 8500 1.4%3 2 107 61859 662 7500 1.4%2019 3 1 80 58118 465 7000 1.8%2015 2 1 79 33957 269 4000 1.8%3 2 89 56500 503 5800 1.4%MOMA 2017 3 2 69 59811 410 5500 1.6%2010 2 2 81 38100 308 4000 1.6%1999 1 1 35 34518 121 2500 2.5%3 2 96 43000 413 5000 1.5%2022 3 2 98 46852 459 5000 1.3%2014 2 2 79 28332 223 3200 1.7%300-500/2 2023 8.1 5.7 20%=+30 2009 1210 13 2.03%-2.2%18 2.03%-2.2%2023 69032 2 138064 20%2270/10%1151+3421 1:1 3.05%+30 81 35%/40%124/134 2.20%/2.03%CREIS 1.5-4.8/1.1%-1.4%2%2%-2.4%19/4 2 155 47400 735 8600 1.4%2006 3 2 138 35514 490 7000 1.7%2000 3 2 109 31970 348 5000 1.7%2 1 60 27381 164 3100 2.3%3 2 98 26600 261 3100 1.4%2016 3 1 83 18750 156 2800 2.2%2010 3 1 85 16847 143 2600 2.2%300-500/2009 1210 14 20/3 2 118 28500 336 3200 1.1%2012 2 1 81 13000 106 2000 2.3%2003 3 1 126 12101 152 2500 2.0%2 1 89 11130 99 2000 2.4%1 37 8328 31 1200 4.6%3 2 120 34500 414 3900 1.1%璟 2021 3 2 117 22312 261 3600 1.7%4 2 128 23049 295 4500 1.8%300-500/3 2023 5.3 4.7 4.1 12%=30 3.03%-3.54%21 3.03%-3.54%2023 47000 2 94000 12%940 1:1 3.0%30 22 30%/35%/40%32/34/37 3.54%/3.29%/3.03%CREIS 0.7-1.4/2%3%2009 1210 15 22/3 2 118 13166 155 2400 1.9%2018 3 2 97 10310 100 2200 2.6%2012 3 2 118 10255 121 2500 2.5%3 2 114 10600 121 1800 1.8%峯 2019 3 2 96 7872 76 1700 2.7%2016 3 2 91 6187 56 1500 3.2%2013 3 2 85 7057 60 1400 2.8%100-300/23/3 2 84 9200 77 2000 3.1%3 2 85 8000 68 2000 3.5%2022 3 2 105 7934 83 2300 3.3%2005 2 2 81 5957 48 1300 3.2%3 2 114 5200 59 1500 3.0%3 2 87 7300 64 2200 4.2%2014 3 2 98 6610 65 2100 3.9%1000/100-300/24/3 2 102 9400 96 1700 2.1%2023 3 2 105 7143 75 1500 2.4%2020 3 2 130 8840 115 1700 1.8%2018 3 2 103 7664 79 1700 2.6%3 2 110 8500 94 1500 1.9%2020 3 2 104 7558 79 1400 2.1%2000 3 2 90 5112 46 1300 3.4%1000/300-500/2009 1210 16 1 2%2%2 3%-3.5%4%2009 1210 17 2008-2012 2011-2012 1 2007 9 2008 12 10 5.25%0.25%2015 12 2 2008 30 2010 30 2011 30 3 2012 11 30 3.3%1971 4.75%140bps 25 2011-2012 30 0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%10.0%:30 Wind Zillow 1 2008-2011 30 2010 30 2 2011 2012 2012 26 2012 27 2012 0501001502002503003504001996/2/11997/5/11998/8/11999/11/12001/2/12002/5/12003/8/12004/11/12006/2/12007/5/12008/8/12009/11/12011/2/12012/5/12013/8/12014/11/12016/2/12017/5/12018/8/12019/11/12021/2/12022/5/12023/8/1/0200400600800100012001400-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022(%Zillow Wind 2009 1210 18 28 2012 29 2012 5 55%57%59%61%63%65%67%2000-012000-112001-092002-072003-052004-032005-012005-112006-092007-072008-052009-032010-012010-112011-092012-072013-052014-032015-012015-112016-092017-072018-05:024681012141999-012000-032001-052002-072003-092004-112006-012007-032008-052009-072010-092011-112013-012014-032015-052016-072017-092018-112020-012021-032022-052023-07:():Wind Wind 2014 2015 6 30 2014-90%-60%-30%0%30%60%90%120%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%:70:2014 3 2014 5 2014 9 1 2 0.7 2015 3 2015 6 Wind 2009 1210 19 2024 1 2 3-W 2009 1210 20 4 2022 2 2022 2023 2009 1210 21 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 22 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
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