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投资前景研究报告 Licence out 2022 licence out deal 2023 1+2 3+1 2 3 4 1 CXO CRO CXO 2 2023 2022 2023 1 CONTENTS Licence out 01 04 032 02 05 Licence out 13 2022 2-5 5-7 A XBI 10-12 1.1 2022+2022+IVD 4 Biotech Pharma Bio-tech10%-55%-36%10%3%-U91%-U 16%66%-U101%-U-U-U-21%397%18%-4%9%-U6%21%-8%59%6,371%-3%2022 2993863522020Q1-Q3 2021Q1-Q3 2022Q1-Q3+29%-9%2020-2022()1321221292022Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3-7%+5%2020-2022()51.2 2020-2022 2022Q1-Q3 175 11%2022 Q3 65 2021 13%1411571752022Q1-Q3 2020Q1-Q3 2021Q1-Q3+11%+11%9957652020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3-42%+13%2020-2022()2020-2022()61.3 2022 11 12 7 5 Pharma Biotech biotech 2022/11/09 2022/11/03 2022/07/22 2022/06/29 2022/06/29 2022/04/13 2022/04/06 2022/03/24 2022/03/18 2022/03/11 2022/02/09 2022/01/26 2022 2022 1171.4 License-out 2020-2022 License-out 2022Q1-Q3License-out 2021 14%2021 10 pct 50 deal Licence out 2728322021Q1-Q3 2020Q1-Q3 2022Q1-Q3+4%+14%2020-2022 License-out()ADC 1.75 93 AK112 Summit Therapeutics5 50 HCAb Moderna 600 5.6 CABA-201 Cabaletta Bio-1.62 SIM0278 Almirall 1500 5.07 PRG-1801 Galapagos-2.5,JMKX002992 6000 6.5 SYSA1801 Elevation Oncology 2700 11.95 SKB315 3500 9.36 Julphar-17 HLX11 HLX13 HLX14 Organon 7300 5.41 2022 License-out 81.5 amyloid-tau APP(1)(2)39-43 2023-CATD AD Lecanemab 3 Clarity AD Lecanemab 18 CDR-SB 27%Aducanumab Gantenerumab Lecanemab 91.6 2023-A Donanemab pGlu3-A Phase III Gantenerumab A/Genentech Phase III A/Genentech Phase III SIM0408 QPCT/Vivoryon Therapeutics Phase IISHR-1707 A Phase I A 101.6 Treg DC Treg 2023-AbbvieABBV-151 GARP+TGF Treg TGF CLBR001/SWI019 CD19 CAR-T SWI019 CLBR001 TTX-030 CD39 CD39 ATP Bayer ATA2271 CAR-T PD-1 DNR T BMS ONO-4578 EP4 PGE2 Gliead GS-3583 FLT3R cDC1s DC 1 FC FLT3 DC 111.6 2023-BGB-15025 HPK1 T T HY-0102 NKG2A Phase III NK LB1910 CLL-1 Phase III CAR-T SHR-1906 CTGF Phase III ES002 CD39 Phase II ATP JS019 CD39 Phase I ATP 121.6 213 2022 2021 2020-2022 2022 34.60 2%2021 5 pct 2021 2020-2022 2022 3 12%2021 32 pct 2022 11 2%1 4%31.833.9 34.62020Q1-Q3 2021Q1-Q3 2022Q1-Q3+7%+2%3432021Q1-Q3 2020Q1-Q3 2022Q1-Q3+20%-12%11 11 112020Q3 2022Q3 2021Q3+0.4%+2%1.0 1.0 1.02020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3+1%-4%2020-2022()2020-2022()2020-2022()2020-2022()Wind 142022Q1-Q3 2022 2021 2022 2021 SW 75 2.1 Wind-20%0%20%40%2021-01-042021-01-152021-01-282021-02-102021-03-022021-03-152021-03-262021-04-092021-04-222021-05-102021-05-212021-06-032021-06-172021-06-302021-07-132021-07-262021-08-062021-08-192021-09-012021-09-142021-09-292021-10-192021-11-012021-11-122021-11-252021-12-082021-12-212022-01-042022-01-172022-01-282022-02-172022-03-022022-03-152022-03-282022-04-122022-04-252022-05-112022-05-242022-06-072022-06-202022-07-012022-07-142022-07-272022-08-092022-08-222022-09-022022-09-162022-09-292022-10-192022-11-012022-11-142022-11-252022-12-08)300()2022 3 A AQ3 wind 300 2021 1 2 3 2.115 2022 12 22 1993 1 1 CDE 1993 2.116 000423.SZ 000999.SZ 600129.SH 500 600750.SH OTC 600085.SH 600252.SH OTC 600332.SH A 19 3 2.117()(%)(/)2019-10-17 493 1 7.2 2018 2020 9.7%2021 17.9%2022 27.1%2020-2022 92%2020-2022 EPS 0.8 0.86 0,92 2020-03-27 1996 2 74.052020 ROE 10%2021ROE 10.5%2022 ROE 11%2020 2021 2022 40%2021-04-03 256 0 4.16 2020 2021 10%2022 21%2023 33%2021-2023 30%2021-06-18 624 1 6.622022-2024 12.74%12.75%12.76%2020 2022-2024 6%2022-2024 R&D 2.96%2.98%3%2021-12-02 958.7 1 14.82022-2024 10.15%10.16%10.17%75 0.69 0.70 0.72 2020 2022-2023 10.0%75 2021-09-25 4,546.881 1.76 2020 2022 EVA 21%2023 EVA 33%2024 EVA 46%2020 2022 16.6%2023 26%2024 36%2022-2024 30%2021-11-25 1242 3 4.3 2020 2022 30%2023 50%2024 75%2022-2024 ROE 12%2020 2022 R&D 20%2023 R&D 35%2024 R&D 50%2022-01-26 720 1 3.69 2020 2022 86%ROE 76%2022 2023 97%ROE 82%2022-2024 109%ROE 87%75 2022-2024 R&D 70%120%186%2022-04-20 1084.6 2 4.49-/wind 2.1 18 2020 9 2007 9 2020 2021 12 3.2 7 1.1 2022 5 1.2 1.2 3.2 3.1 6.1 6 2.2024681012142017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 19 2022 50 15 199 184 15 19.48%150.00%15 5 14 2021 2021 2018 2021 2021 2018 2021 2019 2021 2021 2021 2010 2005 2021 2005 2021 2022 2.220 2021 11 2017-2025 0%20%40%01002003004005006002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E%3 1920-1990 1990-2020 2021-2.321 2021-2022 250(2021 3 160+36+4 2022 50)2022 2022H1 2022H1 27 49%4.69 46%2021 2021 3 200 160+36+4 2022 2022 5 50 2021H1 2022H1 2.30102030405060 2021H1 2022H122/1 333 24 181 47 422 326 25 175 48 383 323 26 172 49 384 303 27 169 50 355 297 28 169 51 346 297 29 152 52 327 280 30 141 53 258 276 31 137 54 259 275 32 137 55 1910 271 33 136 56 1711 258 34 127 57 1612 254 35 114 58 813 245 36 113 59 514 240 37 113 60 515 234 38 105 61 316 231 39 103 62 317 224 40 103 63 018 224 41 83 64 019 215 42 81 65 020 210 43 59 66 021 206 44 56 67 022 201 45 52 68 023 186 46 50 2022 2.323 324 3.125 3.1 Q3 WIND 2022 26 1.2022Q1-Q3 11.11%yoy 31.61%yoy 8.93%yoy;2.2022 14.74%yoy 24.05%yoy 25.12%;yoy 3.Q3 yoy+16.38%Q3 yoy+42.37%-110.00%-10.00%90.00%190.00%290.00%390.00%2021Q1-Q3 2022Q1-Q3 2021Q1-Q3 2022Q1-Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2021Q3 2022Q33.1 WIND 2022 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3-100.00%-50.00%0.00%50.00%100.00%150.00%200.00%250.00%300.00%020406080100120140 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q2 2022Q3 273.1+23+2022Q1 2022 2022 11 11 1.7+3 5+3 2.3.7 7 4.7+3 5+3 2022 12 7 1.6 7 CT 35 2.5 5 283.1 2022 9 8 2022 9 8 AB 30%100%80%60%1.+3 4500()2.1 20%2/10%3 10%1/3 30%5850 16%10000 70%3000-5000 2100-3500 3.293.1+23+2022 2023+AB 30%100%80%60%A B 70%A B A 5 A 5 2021 77%3 A 20 20 OK 30 3.131 2022 Q3 WIND 1.2022Q1-Q3 22%yoy 8%yoy 2.2022 23%yoy 20%yoy;3.Q3+41.94%yoy+20.79%yoy+29.27%yoy+21.06%yoy-60.00%-10.00%40.00%90.00%2021Q1-Q3 2022Q1-Q3 2021Q1-Q3 2022Q1-Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2021Q3 2022Q33.132 WIND Q3 WIND 2022 Q4 2021 Q4 3.1 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 575 701 394 845 903 425 58 266 498 250 748 310 349 546 639 820 1197 817 167 959 381 254 425 478 339 93 223 579 8521342 318 413 243 510 535 633 967 946 1155 1603 885 142 220 270 191597 241 360 718 2022 1295 735 1342 885 959 333.134 1 1 19 22 22 24 3.135 WIND%WIND 2022 3.236 6027228691,0461,2541,3052020 2015 2018 2016 2017 201919.9%20.4%20.4%19.9%4.1%2015-2020()2015 4,248 2019 8,514 2019 80.1%38.1%2016-2019 CAGR 20%15%CAGR 2020 4.07%4,2488,51418,24216,8770.00.20.40.60.81.005,00010,00015,00020,00049.0%28.5%201538.1%2019 2024E80.1%2019()3.237 2020 75%68%50%2008 111 2018 236 8%75%68%39%30%30%27%20%20%10%5%2008-2018()2020 3.238()()10%2020.11 2021.9 2022.9 2022.11 14 95%93%82%84%10%3.2399.2%3.5%15.2%9.0%10.7%7.1%15.3%13.3%13.6%12.4%5.2%8.9%6.9%11.1%2019 2021 2019 2021 9.2%15.2%9.0%10.7%3.5%7.1%3.240/3.2()Wind-0.00.10.10.30501001502000.000.050.100.150.200.250.302%2%20192%201854%91%2020158%4%20214.15.17.4-10010203040500123456785.441%32%44%43%39%-5%2018 2019 202038%45%2021-41 3.342+3.343-50%-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 12/4 300+6 Q3 2022 2022/1/4 wind 3.344 3.345 know-how SKU 1-3 3-6 3.346 2012 2001 2007 2009 2010 2013 2017 2011 PCR qPCR 800 IVD 1200 4.6 6000 12000 4600 28000 16 2,989 63 544 CHO HEK293 MDCK IVD POCT POCT POCT 8 POCT license out mRNA IVD 30 10 50 mRNA CRO IVD IVD 1000 5000 IVD 4000 2-3 IVD 40 1/3 90 mRNA know-how 100 3.3+%2018 2019 2020 2021 2018 2019 2020 2021 2018 2019 2020 2021 2018 2019 2020 2021 26.00 35.98 179.84 341.90/-12.38-9.58 85.36 148.87/67.26 86.77 55%38%87%29%/31.92 37.78/-25%233%18%/109.69 125.79/15%/52.06 54.77/5%/61%37%/61%37%/mRNA/2.89 129.34/4375%/1.37 56.32/69.84 103.29 246.32 384.99/11.34 11.05 115.69 174.21/173.72 297 70%48%68%71%/82 134/-3%642%63%/72.60 87.99/21%/33.69 40.21/19%/29%23%/29%23%/170.80 268.38 1564.45 1868.63/1.04 25.79 821.73 678.29/365.34 637 54%57%36%74%/140 264/2380%443%89%/1199.11 1231.63/3%/681.73 414.29/-39%/77%66%/83%61%/33.84 58.52 124.97 212.68/73%114%70%0.63-12.80 5.45 49.54/-2117%143%810%55.83 73.94 233.21 338.46/4.69 9.82 97.17 111.85/106.25 161.25/32%44%52%/44.27 53.29/109%351%20%/126.81 176.75/39%/53.90 58.56/9%/54%52%/54%52%/101.27 134.32 186.62 351.19 31%33%39%88%35.59 54.59 82.83 157.17/69%53%52%2018-2021 wind 47 3.4483.4.1 Zion Market Research 2025200 2003 300 2005 950 2007 1700 2009 2010 3600 4000 2021 15000 20 105 15%2021 5%21 2006 2019 7 49 10.411.514.513.215.32017 2016 2018 2019 2020()3.4.2-5%0%5%10%15%20%050100150 CT X MR 2020 537.0 2030 1,100 7.3%3.9%2020 2021 50()3.4.2 23.7%28.0%14.0%18.2%15.7%26.3%14.8%7.8%17.4%11.1%12.0%21.2%10.1%0%20%40%60%80%100%CT64 CT 64 CT GE 15.3%15.6%7.0%19.3%8.0%5.1%17.3%0%20%40%60%80%DR DR GE Hologic 2020 CT 2020 DR 51 Evaluate MedTech 2019-2024 209(2019)283(2024)6.3%FROST&SULLIVAN 2018-2022 9.25%2022 320 3.4.2 Evaluate MedTech52 FROST&SULLIVAN 1/4 2020 23.6%10.3%8.4%5%3.4.2 53 2019 2020 454CXO CRO CXO 4.155 CXO 2020-2022 2022 Q1-3 668.40 68.04%2021 24.94 pct CXO 2020-2022 CXO 179.73 84.20%2021 31.22 pct 2022 CXO 59.61 100.32%53.60 pct 2022 16.12 pct 4.1 CXO 2783986682020Q1-Q3 2022Q1-Q3 2021Q1-Q3+43%+68%64981802020Q1-Q3 2021Q1-Q3 2022Q1-Q3+53%+84%1071472372021Q3 2020Q3 2022Q3+37%+61%2030602020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3+47%+100%3 2020-2022 CXO()2 2020-2022 CXO()5 2020-2022 CXO()4 2020-2022 CXO()Wind 56 CXO 2018-2022 CXO 40%202240.93%2021 0.61pct CXO 2020 2018-2022 CXO 2020 2022 26.68%2021 2.40pct 22.45%2021 4.38pct 2022 2022 CXO 23.00%5.65 pct 0.55 pct 4.12018Q3 2021Q321%40%16%19%41%19%2019Q325%42%19%2020Q320%14%23%40%42%17%2022Q3 11 2018-2022 CXO 10 2018-2022 CXO 18%40%40%21%16%2019Q1-317%27%2018Q1-341%23%18%15%2020Q1-340%24%2021Q1-341%22%2022Q1-3 57 2020-2022 2022 277.79 45.69%2020-2022 2022 137.67 43.25%2021 56.10 pct CXO 21.43 59.34%2021 47.24 pct 8.68 56.63%4.1 CXO 1431912782022Q3 2020Q3 2021Q3+33%+46%48961382020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3+99%+43%8 2020-2022 CXO()6 2020-2022 CXO()Wind 9 2020-2022 CXO()7 2020-2022 CXO()713212020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3+107%+59%112092020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3+87%-57%58 2022Q3 2022 199.5 29%54.2 49%,2022 2022 47.5 11%15.6 1%77.0 74.084.2132.5 132.4175.1280.8199.50.00.20.40.60.81.0-100010020030057%2016Q1-3 2018Q1-3 2015Q1-332%-4%14%2017Q1-30%2019Q1-3 2020Q1-360%2021Q1-3-29%2022Q1-38.8 9.916.238.869.4106.754.20.00.20.40.60.81.0-500501001502018Q1-3 2015Q1-313%2016Q1-364%2017Q1-3140%0%2019Q1-379%2020Q1-3-49%54%2021Q1-3 2022Q1-338.8 2015-2022()2015-2022()()YoY()YoY113.991.075.8 78.198.353.647.50.00.20.40.60.81.0-500501001502021Q1 2021Q4 2021Q3-20%2021Q23%-17%26%2022Q1 2022Q3-45%2022Q2-11%2021-2022Q3()2021-2022Q3()()34.930.741.137.823.115.5 15.60.00.20.40.60.81.0-10010203040502021Q1-39%2021Q3-12%2021Q2-8%2021Q434%2022Q2 2022Q1-33%1%2022Q3()4.159 61418811139241081317959555 57350510152025100200700-1000Apr-22 Oct-21 Jun-21 Oct-22 Jan-21 Jul-22 Apr-21 Nov-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Aug-22 May-22 Jun-221Sep-22 Nov-22 Mar-21 Feb-21()11 2022 2 9 11 77%26%11 2022 2 11 289%CXO 3323583226282730612117 171901020304050607010050300-100-50015019Oct-2223Oct-21 Apr-21 Mar-21 Sep-22 Jan-21 May-21 Nov-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Jun-22 Aug-2111Sep-21 Jul-22 Mar-22 Dec-21 Nov-22 Jan-22 Feb-2216Apr-22 May-22 Aug-22262119 1834Feb-2122()2021-2022 11 2021-2022 11%4.1-17%65%14%-17%45%-67%209%63%48%116%78%39%156%-76%37%24%65%2%9%0%95%-17%60%587%177%70%20%34%19%35%13%-24%46%-4%9%138%269%68%153%25%38%10%7%-7%38%-19%-17%26%55%9%2022Q3 2022Q3 CXO CDMO 2022Q3 CRO CRO CRO CRO CRO CXO CXO CXO CXO CRO CRO CDMO4.1 CXO 2022 Q3;61 CRO CXO PCAOB 2022 2022 12 PCAOB 2022 PCAOB CXO UVL UVL CXO 2022 12 2022 10 UVL 12 UVL UVL 2022 UVL CXO CXO G20 G20 2022 11 G20 4.1 CXO EPS CRO Q3 CRO CXO CRO CXO 4.1;630.20.4 0.41.90.80.11.20.00.50.80.60.21.50.21.10.00.71.11.42.21.41.01.90.50.7 0.73.21.30.12.00.10.81.30.90.32.30.31.60.11.01.51.92.91.71.20.0-250-200-150-100-5005010015002-1851673 70%64%113%80%83%55%62%71%64%59%56%50%48%39%43%36%35%30%27%22%7%-250%4.7 2.10.0 67%57%65%7.42022 EPS 2022 EPS CXO 2022 Q3%4.264 2022 12 TTM 22.4%1-3 4-6 7-9 10 12 4.2 2022 12 TTM wind 65 2022 967 10%2021 1pct 2021 2022 114 2021 3%4.2 wind 66791 879 9672022Q1-Q3 2020Q1-Q3 2021Q1-Q3+11%+10%255 288 3152020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3+13%+10%2020-2022()2020-2022()1341171142022Q1-Q3 2020Q1-Q3 2021Q1-Q3-3%-13%2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3-13%-9%2020-2022()2020-2022()37 32 29 2020 700 2020 Q1 2021Q4 842 2019 15.5%2021 2020 2021 5.3%2020 2022 1.6%4.2 Statista 67%2017Q1-2022Q2 60,00065,00070,00075,00080,00085,0002019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q2 IBISWorld 2022 8670 1.7%2020 2021 2019 2023 4.2 68 2015-2022H1 8000 3500 DC 9000 25000 7000 40000 13000 12000 10000 2022 wind(CCPI)CCPI 12 16 4832 1.25%2021 6.32%2022 6243 22.6%wind CCFI 2022 2 2022 12 60%4.2 69 CCPI wind 480050005200540056005800600062006400660002000400060008000CCFI:CCFI:CCFI:CCFI:Wind 2022 10 55.77/kg 1.4%2021 64%2022 12 SQM Wind 2022 10 8757.34/kg 19.8%2022 12 4.2 70/kg/kg Wind 010203040506070802000/102002/052003/122005/072007/022008/092010/042011/112013/062015/012016/082018/032019/102021/05050001000015000200002000/012001/052002/092004/012005/052006/092009/012010/052011/092013/012014/052015/092017/012018/052019/092021/032022-07050100150200250 Wind(2022 11)625/kg 650/kg 1350/kg 2021 Wind VA VE VD3 2022 12 93.5/kg 78/kg 52.5/kg 2022 65.4%10.9%48.8%2022 4.2 71/kg Wind/kg 05001000150020002500300035002005-082006-092007-102008-112009-122011-012012-022013-032014-042015-052016-062017-072018-082019-092020-102021-11 0500100015002007-10-262008-10-262009-10-262010-10-262011-10-262012-10-262013-10-262014-10-262015-10-262016-10-262017-10-262018-10-262019-10-262020-10-262021-10-262022-10-26 A(50 IU/g)E:50%D3(50 IU/g)572573 1 2 3
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