20240703_广发证券_家用电器行业2024年中报业绩前瞻：Q2维持Q1趋势业绩稳健增长_24页.pdf

识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1/24 Xml Table_Page 行业专题研究|家用电器 2024 年 7 月 3 日 证券研究报告 Table_C ontacter 本报告联 系人：Table_Title 2024 Q2 Q1 Table_Author SAC S0260517050002 SFC CE.no:BNV293 SAC S0260517110001 SFC CE.no:BNV055 0755-82771936 021-38003640 Table_Summary 1 2024 1-5 3421+7.0%4-5+8.9%23Q1 3.1pct 2 24Q2 2024 1-5 401.8+14.0%4-5+16.3%24Q1 4.1pct 1 Q2 4-5+35.6%+28.7%+14.7%Q1 13.8pct 2.5pct 16.6pct 4-5+5.7%+5.0%+10.3%Q1 Q1 13.2pct 3.2pct 9.9pct 2 24Q2 24W14-24W24 2024.4.1-2024.6.18-37.5%-14.8%-7.5%24W1-24W13 2024.3.31-67.6pct-23.2pct-22.1pct-17.4%-14.9%-6.4%24W1-13 2023.3.31+0pct-3.7pct-2.4pct 3 24H1 24W1-24W24 2024.1.1-2024.6.18-6.2%-0.8%-5.9%-2.3%+2.0%-1.6%Q2 Q1 24W1-W24 2024.6.18 21%15%13%11%10%5%4%Q2 Q2 ROE A/H A/H Table_Report:618 2024-06-23:618 2024-06-17:2024-06-02 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 2/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 EPS()PE(x)EV/EBITDA(x)ROE(%)/2024E 2025E 2024E 2025E 2024E 2025E 2024E 2025E 000333.SZ 63.03 2024/04/30 80.27 5.35 5.89 11.79 10.69 8.29 7.15 20.09 19.49 600690.SH 26.76 2024/04/29 36.41 2.02 2.30 13.23 11.62 7.65 6.86 16.13 16.01 06690.HK 24.90 2024/04/29 35.28 2.20 2.51 11.29 9.92 7.05 6.29 16.13 16.01 000921.SZ 29.71 2024/04/25 39.27 2.46 2.79 12.10 10.64 5.62 4.78 24.16 26.37 00921.HK 24.95 2024/04/25 32.16 2.68 3.04 9.32 8.20 4.66 3.93 24.16 26.37 000651.SZ 38.13 2024/04/30 54.28 5.43 5.83 7.02 6.54 3.78 3.64 23.27 22.01 688169.SH 373.18 2024/04/28 505.75 20.22 24.07 18.46 15.50 17.90 14.41 18.95 18.41 600060.SH 24.00 2024/04/24 27.17 1.81 1.99 13.25 12.04 8.42 7.22 11.99 12.37 Wind 2024/07/03 H XVAZxOtOpMpOpRpMqNtMqR6McMaQmOqQnPmQfQmMrOjMoOrM8OmNtNNZmRqQMYpOqQ 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 3/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 2024.6 24Q2.8.10 2024Q2.11 24Q2.11.14.17.17.19 2024Q2.19.20.22 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 4/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 1%.11 2%.11 3%.12 4%.12 5%.12 6%.12 7 2023W1-2024W24 2023.1.1-2024.6.18%.12 8 2023W1-2024W24 2023.1.1-2024.6.18%.12 9 2023W1-2024W24 2023.1.1-2024.6.18%.13 10 2023W1-2024W24 2023.1.1-2024.6.18%.13 11 2023W1-2024W24 2023.1.1-2024.6.18%.13 12 2023W1-2024W24 2023.1.1-2024.6.18%.13 13 2024W1-W24 2024.1.1-2024.6.18%.13 14 2024W1-W24 2024.1.1-2024.6.16%.13 15 2024%.14 16 2024%.15 17%.15 18%.15 19.15 20.15 21.16 22.16 23.16 24.17 25.17 26.17 27 2023W1-2024W24 2023.1.1-2024.6.18%.18 28 2023W1-2024W24 2023.1.1-2024.6.18%.18 29 2024W1-W24 2024.1.1-2024.6.18%.18 30 2024W1-W24 2024.1.1-2024.6.18%.18 ZmEK4NjMlalg2bhcdBpB7UnPyPSCGvG90wyKf2tEx5uvtHgwhQT25ahbr/rwkEcw 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 5/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 31(%).19 32 30%.19 33 30%.19 34 24H1.20 35.20 36.21 37.21 38/24H1.21 1.6 2.7 3.10 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 6/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 2024 1%2024Q1 2024Q2E 2024H1E 2024Q1 2024Q2E 2024H1E 000651.SZ 366.0 653.8 1019.8 3%2%2%000333.SZ 1064.8 1112.8 2177.6 10%10%10%600690.SH 689.8 705.5 1395.3 6%6%6%000921.SZ 234.9 253.9 488.8 21%8%14%002668.SZ TCL 42.0 31.9 73.9 76%13%42%002032.SZ 53.8 53.2 107.0 8%6%7%002242.SZ 20.7 25.0 45.6 9%3%6%002705.SZ 34.7 37.0 71.8 23%5%13%002959.SZ 11.9 10.4 22.3-5%-5%-5%603486.SH 34.7 43.0 77.7 7%10%9%688169.SH 18.4 27.7 46.1 59%25%37%605555.SH 8.2 9.7 18.0 46%25%34%002508.SZ 22.4 26.2 48.6 3%-5%-2%300894.SZ 3.5 5.5 9.0-15%-10%-12%300911.SZ 1.3 3.1 4.4-44%-20%-29%002677.SZ 2.7 3.8 6.5-19%-12%-15%603195.SH 38.0 48.1 86.1 14%13%13%603515.SH 15.8 20.0 35.8 5%-2%1%688696.SH 8.3 7.8 16.1-7%5%-1%600060.SH 127.0 154.0 281.0 11%15%13%002050.SZ 64.4 78.8 143.2 13%15%14%002011.SZ 26.3 35.1 61.3 8%12%10%Wind 2024Q2E/2024H1E 4-5 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 7/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 2%2024Q1 2024Q2E 2024H1E 2024Q1 2024Q2E 2024H1E 000651.SZ 46.8 92.5 139.2 14%8%10%000333.SZ 90.0 114.1 204.1 12%12%12%600690.SH 47.7 56.4 104.1 20%13%16%000921.SZ 9.8 10.1 20.0 59%15%33%002668.SZ TCL 2.3 2.3 4.6 32%0%14%002032.SZ 4.7 4.6 9.3 7%5%6%002242.SZ 1.3 1.4 2.7 7%8%8%002705.SZ 1.7 2.8 4.5 25%8%14%002959.SZ 1.5 0.8 2.4-9%18%0%603486.SH 3.0 3.4 6.3-9%30%8%688169.SH 4.0 7.5 11.5 95%40%55%605555.SH 0.9 1.1 2.0 102%-15%14%002508.SZ 4.0 4.5 8.5 2%2%2%300894.SZ 0.4 0.7 1.1-25%-20%-22%300911.SZ 0.0 0.3 0.4-89%-60%-69%002677.SZ 0.8 1.0 1.8-23%-13%-18%603195.SH 9.3 12.8 22.1 26%18%21%603515.SH 1.2 3.1 4.3 23%5%10%688696.SH 0.1 0.2 0.4-73%-45%-61%600060.SH 4.7 5.4 10.1-25%30%-3%002050.SZ 6.5 8.3 14.8 8%5%6%002011.SZ 2.1 2.7 4.7 28%60%44%Wind 2024Q2E/2024H1E 4-5 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 8/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 24Q2 2024 4-5-7%+6%6 2024 4-5-4%+51%+17%2024 4-5+16%+45%+23%2024 4-5-6%+13%-6%+19%Q2 2024 4-5+10%+23%+17%24Q2+9%+12%+11%24Q2 TCL 24Q2+9%+12%+11%24M4-5+20%24Q2+13%24Q2 Q2 2024 4-5+3%4-5+5%+4%2024 4-5+33%P10S PRO Q2 20%24Q2 24Q2 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 9/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 23Q2 24 23Q2 23Q2 24Q2 24Q2 23Q2 24 Q2 Q2 23Q2 24Q2 24Q2 4-5+30%+18%Q2 24Q2+12%23Q2 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 10/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 ROE A/H A/H 3/EPS/PE x 23A 24E 25E 23A 24E 25E 23A 24E 25E 000333.SZ 63.03 4.80 5.35 5.89 14%11%10%10.9 11.8 10.7 600690.SH 26.76 1.76 2.02 2.30 13%15%14%11.9 13.2 11.6 000921.SZ 29.71 2.04 2.46 2.79 98%20%14%10.0 12.1 10.6 002668.SZ TCL 8.71 0.73 0.81 0.90 69%11%12%9.1 10.8 9.6 000651.SZ 38.13 5.15 5.43 5.83 18%5%7%6.2 7.0 6.5 002959.SZ 46.36 2.84 3.04 3.44 15%7%13%17.9 15.2 13.5 002705.SZ 13.30 1.19 1.38 1.52 2%15%11%11.9 9.7 8.7 002242.SZ 10.40 0.51 0.57 0.64-27%12%12%24.8 18.3 16.4 002032.SZ 48.12 2.70 2.85 3.03 5%5%7%18.7 16.9 15.9 301332.SZ 8.91 0.24 0.41 0.47-43%75%14%51.3 21.7 19.0 300824.SZ 7.26 0.22 0.26 0.30 52%19%17%40.4 28.0 23.9 603215.SH 12.69 1.07 1.23 1.34 13%15%10%15.8 10.3 9.4 603486.SH 44.76 1.06 2.49 3.09-64%135%24%38.8 18.0 14.5 688169.SH 373.18 15.60 20.22 24.07 73%30%19%18.1 18.5 15.5 688696.SH 75.72 1.72 4.25 7.10-76%147%67%65.6 17.8 10.7 688007.SH 15.66 0.22 0.38 0.52-14%70%37%115.9 41.5 30.2 600060.SH 24.00 1.61 1.81 1.99 25%18%118%13.0 13.2 12.0 01070.HK TCL 6.00 0.30 0.35 0.40 66%18%16%8.6 17.1 14.8 688793.SH 29.00-0.59 1.26 1.69 59%313%34%-23.0 17.2 002508.SZ 21.85 1.83 1.97 2.14 10%8%9%11.4 11.1 10.2 002677.SZ 8.06 0.72 0.76 0.80 3%6%6%13.1 10.6 10.0 300911.SZ 25.80 1.68 1.49 1.68-15%15%13%16.8 17.3 15.4 300894.SZ 12.84 0.60 0.73 0.82-21%21%12%26.0 17.6 15.7 605336.SH 11.38 1.03 1.10 1.16-12%6%5%14.4 10.3 9.8 603195.SH 73.57 4.34 3.53 4.11 21%18%16%14.8 20.8 17.9 603515.SH 16.68 1.24 1.36 1.49 18%10%9%14.0 12.2 11.2 002050.SZ 19.12 0.78 0.95 1.17 14%22%23%37.2 20.1 16.3 002011.SZ 9.70 0.70 0.88 1.06-12%27%21%19.7 11.0 9.1 605555.SH 17.81 0.87 1.06 1.31 8%22%24%26.0 16.9 13.6 Wind 2024/07/03 2024-2025 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 11/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 2024Q2 24Q2 2024 4-5 4-5+5.7%+5.0%+10.3%Q1 Q1 13.2pct 3.2pct 9.9pct 4-5+35.6%+28.7%+14.7%Q1 13.8pct 2.5pct 16.6pct 24Q2 24W14-24W24 2024.4.1-2024.6.18-37.5%-14.8%-7.5%24W1-24W13 2024.3.31-67.6pct-23.2pct-22.1pct-17.4%-14.9%-6.4%24W1-13 2023.3.31+0pct-3.7pct-2.4pct 24H1 24W1-24W24 2024.1.1-2024.6.18-6.2%-0.8%-5.9%-2.3%+2.0%-1.6%1%2%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%02004006008001000120014002022 2023 2024 2023 YOY 2024 YOY-40%0%40%80%120%160%0200400600800100012002022 2023 2024 2023 YOY 2024 YOY 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 12/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 3%4%5%6%7 2023W1-2024W24 2023.1.1-2024.6.18%8 2023W1-2024W24 2023.1.1-2024.6.18%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%01002003004005002022 2023 2024 2023 YOY 2024 YOY-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%01002003004005006002022 2023 2024 2023 YOY 2024 YOY-50%0%50%01002003004005002022 2023 2024 2023 YOY 2024 YOY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01002003004005002022 2023 2024 2023 YOY 2024 YOY-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%051015202530-500%0%500%1000%1500%0100200300400 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 13/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 9 2023W1-2024W24 2023.1.1-2024.6.18%10 2023W1-2024W24 2023.1.1-2024.6.18%11 2023W1-2024W24 2023.1.1-2024.6.18%12 2023W1-2024W24 2023.1.1-2024.6.18%13 2024W1-W24 2024.1.1-2024.6.18%14 2024W1-W24 2024.1.1-2024.6.16%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%02468101214-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%050100150200-80%-40%0%40%80%120%024681012-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%020406080100120140160180-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%YoY YoY-8%-4%0%4%YoY YoY 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 14/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 24W1-W24 2024.6.18 21%15%13%11%10%5%4%6%10%-6%-20%-17%-13%-7%24W1-24W24 2024.6.18-8%+21%-10%-10%-35%-10%6%-11%-16%-42%24W1-24W24/+15%+10%/+4%-7%/-6%-29%24W1-W24 2024.6.18-19%-16%-13%-12%-11%-9%.4-5 4-5 6%+18%-7%+13%+32%4%+18%4-5 24Q1+3pct-12pct-10pct 0pct 12pct-3pct+7pct 4-5+8%+7%+14%Q1-5pct-6pct-5pct 15 2024%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2024 W24)2024 W24)识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 15/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 16 2024%17%18%19 20-40%-20%0%20%40%2024 W24)2024 W24)-100%-50%0%50%100%22-01 22-06 22-11 23-04 23-09 24-02-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%22-01 22-06 22-11 23-04 23-09 24-02-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%050001000015000200002500030000 yoy-50%0%50%100%150%200%0200040006000800010000120001400016000 yoy 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 16/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 21 22 23-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%0100020003000400050006000 yoy-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%01000200030004000500060007000 yoy-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0200040006000800010000120002022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022023/032023/042023/052023/062023/072023/082023/092023/102023/112023/122024/012024/022024/032024/042024/05 yoy 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 17/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 2024 4-20224 5-8.1%Q1 2.8pct-7.6%9.2%Q1-4.8pct/+2.3pct 24 25 26 24W1-24W24-2024.6.18-13.7%-5.5%24W1-24W24-2024.6.18-1.5%-0.4%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%010020030023.0123.0223.0323.0423.0523.0623.0723.0823.0923.1023.1123.1224.0124.0224.0324.0424.05 YoY-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%010203040506070809010023.0123.0223.0323.0423.0523.0623.0723.0823.0923.1023.1123.1224.0124.0224.0324.0424.05 YoY-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0100200300400 YoY 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 18/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 27 2023W1-2024W24 2023.1.1-2024.6.18%28 2023W1-2024W24 2023.1.1-2024.6.18%29 2024W1-W24 2024.1.1-2024.6.18%30 2024W1-W24 2024.1.1-2024.6.18%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0.000.250.500.751.001.251.5023W123W523W923W1323W1723W2123W2523W2923W3323W3723W4123W4523W4924W124W524W924W1324W1724W21-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%0246810121423W123W423W723W1023W1323W1623W1923W2223W2523W2823W3123W3423W3723W4023W4323W4623W4923W5224W324W624W924W1224W1524W1824W2124W24-5.5%-13.7%-16%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%YoY YoY-0.4%-1.5%-2%-1%0%YoY YoY 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 19/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 32 30%33 30%wind wind 2024Q2 2024H1 2023-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%17-0818-0118-0618-1119-0419-0920-0220-0720-1221-0521-1022-0322-0823-0123-0623-1124-0430:-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%17-0818-0118-0618-1119-0419-0920-0220-0720-1221-0521-1022-0322-0823-0123-0623-1124-0430:31(%)Wind-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%17-08 18-07 19-07 20-07 21-07 22-07 23-07 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 20/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 2024.1.2-2024.6.17 LEM 0.5mm+12.4%+3.6%-10.9%+11.0%34 24H1 Wind 35 Wind 5.65.86.06.26.46.66.87.07.27.47.602040608010012014002000400060008000100001200017-01 17-07 18-01 18-07 19-01 19-07 20-01 20-07 21-01 21-07 22-01 22-07 23-01 23-07 24-01:LME(/:LME(/:0.5mm:(/(/识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 21/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 36 37 Wind Wind 38/24H1 Wind 020406080100120140160180200:600700800900100011001200()05010015020025016-0116-0416-0716-1017-0117-0417-0717-1018-0118-0418-0718-1019-0119-0419-0719-1020-0120-0420-0720-1021-0121-0421-0721-1022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-0723-1024-0124-0432 Open Cell 40Open Cell 43Open Cell49Open Cell 55Open Cell 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 22/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 1.2016 2.3.4.5.识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 23/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 Table_ResearchTeam 2017 2017 2020 2021 2022 Table_RatingIndustry 12 10%12-10%+10%12 10%Table_RatingCompany 12 15%12 5%-15%12-5%+5%12 5%Table_Address 26 47 6001 31 2 18 429 37 81 27 510627 518026 100045 200120-Table_LegalDisclaimer/4 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 24/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|家用 电器 Table_ImportantNotices 1 2/5 Table_InterestDisclosure(1)12 Table_Copyright