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|1 2024 06 24()SAC S1110519070001 SAC S1110522110002 SAC S1110523070006 SAC S1110518080008 1-:2024-06-24 2-:2024-06-17 3-:-2024 4 2024-06-12 2024 5 17 1 3000 2 3 4 0.25 CCPI-PVC-PVC MDI-TDI MDI MDI TDI PVC-26%-21%-16%-11%-6%-1%4%2023-06 2023-10 2024-02 300|2 1.5.5.5.5 2.6 1.6.6 3.7 3.1.MDI.7 3.2.TDI.9 3.3.10 3.4.12 3.5.15 3.6.17 3.7.PVC.21 4.23 1.6 2.6 3 MDI.7 4 MDI 2024 5.7 5 MDI 2024 5.7 6 MDI.7 7 MDI.7 8 MDI 2022.8 9 MDI 2022.8 10 MDI.8 11 MDI.8 12 MDI.8 13 MDI.8 14 TDI.9 15 TDI 2024.9 16 TDI 2023.9 17 TDI.9 18 TDI.9 19 TDI.9 0YBYxOrMtQmNrPsRtOtMmNaQcM8OmOnNnPrNjMqQrPeRpNmR8OoOwOMYpMsRxNmOoO|3 20 TDI.9 21.10 22.10 23 2023.10 24.11 25.11 26 2023.11 27.11 28.11 29.11 30.13 31 2023 55%.13 32 2019-2023.13 33 2023 CR5 54%.13 34 2019-2023.13 35 2023 CR5 54%.13 36 2023.14 37.14 38.14 39/.14 40.15 41.15 42 2023.15 43.16 44.16 45 2022.16 46 DMC.16 47 DMC.16 48 DMC.16 49.17 50 2020 HFCs.18 51 2012 2020.18 52 2018-2023 R32.18 53 2018-2023.18 54 2022-2023.19 55 2022-2024.19 56 2024 CR4 72%.19 57.20 58.20 59 R22.20 60 R32.20|4 61 R125.20 62 R134a.20 63.21 64.21 65 2023.21 66.22 67.22 68 2023.22 69.22 70.22 71.22 1 MDI.8 2 TDI.10 3.11 4.12 5.12 6.13 7.14 8 2022.16 9.17 10.17 11.20 12 2023.22 13.22 H1m9weD0My4rhKcbOlthwZDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD4Rrl0WnW3dK711GZIJKa+D|5 1.2024 5 17 1,2 3 4 1 3000 5000 2 20%15%30%25%3 4 0.25 2.85%1 2 3|6 2.CCPI PVC MDI TDI-PVC MDI 1 CCPI 2012 2012 CCPI 2012-2015/2018-2020/2022-2015-2018/2020-2022 CCPI 1 1 1 Wind-PVC-PVC MDI-TDI MDI 2-管材：聚氯乙烯（PVC）减水剂水泥：玻璃：纯碱、有机硅（粘合剂）地板、板材：聚氯乙烯（PVC）、尿素（脲醛树脂）、MDI（无醛板材）涂料：钛白粉家具：聚醚、TDI家电：MDI、改性塑料、制冷剂布艺：涤纶|7 3.3.1.MDI MDI MDI()3 MDI MDI MDI 45-50%MDI 20%MDI MDI MDI 2024 CR5 91%MDI 3 MDI 4 MDI 2024 5 5 MDI 2024 5 6 MDI 7 MDI Wind Wind MDIHCl硝酸 MDI MDA 苯 MDI()副产物 60-70%30-40%;345;33%;189;18%;177;17%;137;13%;111;10%;92;9%0501001502002503002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0204060801001201402017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MDI MDI MDI MDI|8 8 MDI 2022 9 MDI 2022 10 MDI 11 MDI 12 MDI 13 MDI 1 MDI MDI 23 1000/600309.SH 350 311 2639 168 31 Wind 1 2024 6 20 2 3 4 MDI 1000/13%5 6 80%64%010203040506070白色家电管道集装箱建筑相关胶黏剂其他汽车TPU氨纶浆料其他鞋底原料聚合MDI 纯MDI万吨051015202530351 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 2023 20240%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 2023 20240.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.006-0106-0707-0107-0708-0108-0709-0109-0710-0110-0711-0111-0712-0112-0713-0113-0714-0114-0715-0115-0716-0116-0717-0117-0718-0118-0719-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-0123-0724-01万元/吨万元/吨聚合MDI-纯苯-甲醛 聚合MDI0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.00.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.506-0106-0707-0107-0708-0108-0709-0109-0710-0110-0711-0111-0712-0112-0713-0113-0714-0114-0715-0115-0716-0116-0717-0117-0718-0118-0719-0119-0720-0120-0721-0121-0722-0122-0723-0123-0724-01万元/吨万元/吨纯MDI-纯苯-甲醛 纯MDI|9 3.2.TDI TDI 2023 313 152 49%TDI 5 14 TDI 15 TDI 2024 16 TDI 2023 17 TDI 18 TDI Wind Wind 19 TDI 20 TDI 硝酸 DNT TDI 甲苯(TDA)0204060801001202018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 05101520253035402000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024 Q1x 10000 40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024|10 2 TDI TDI 23 1000/600309.SH 95 78.3 2639 168 7.8 600230.SH 15 42 1.9 1.5 Wind 1 2024 6 20 2 3 4 TDI 1000/13%5 6 80%64%70%100%100%3.3.2023 4165 25 21 2023 3182 73%43%17%13%7%5%2023 2019 2023 21 22 23 2023|11 24 25 Wind Wind 26 2023 27 28 29 Wind 3 Solvay 732 Genesis Alkali Wyoming CP 440 Ciner Wyoming LLC 280 Kazan Soda 270 Tata Chemicals Soda Ash Partners 250 ETI Soda 175 Soda Sanayii 120 IHS Markit 2019 Slovay 2018 2023|12 4 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 3320 3357 3416 3485 4165 4465 2888 2812 2913 2920 3233 3749 19 36 24 11 68 70 2906 2848 2937 2932 3331 3848 yoy-2.01%3.13%-0.19%13.61%15.54%4634 4729 5083 5064 4847 4605*1066 1088 1169 1165 1115 1059 879 1013 1129 1606 2478 2974*176 203 226 321 496 595 2658 2481 2483 2478 2317 2433*478 446 447 446 417 438 16 19 30 40 52 99*32 37 60 79 104 198 144 138 76 206 149 140 1895 1912 1977 2216 2280 2430*868 798 884 694 902 900 2763 2710 2861 2910 3182 3330 yoy-1.91%5.57%1.71%9.34%4.65%144 138 76 22 149 519 Wind*2021-2022 2023 1-9 5 23 100/000683.SZ 447 258 14.1 4.5 600328.SH 314 102 11.5 3.1 600409.SH 286 105 5.7 2.9 000822.SZ 280 53 10.4 2.8 600586.SH 150 86 4.6 1.5 Wind 1 2024 6 20 2024 5 2 3 4 100 13%5 3.4.TiO 2 2023 981.9 55%2023/CR5 51.5%|13 30 31 2023 55%6 2023 151 15.4%Tronox 110 11.2%Chemours 110 11.2%Venator 80 8.1%Kronos 55 5.6%476 48.5%982 100%2023 522.3 7.9%2019-2023 CAGR 5.6%2023 151 29%55 2023 CR5 54%32 2019-2023 33 2023 CR5 54%2023 407 9.9%251.3 3.8%30%-40%2023 164.2+17%2019-2023 20 34 2019-2023 35 2023 CR5 54%|14 2023 58%24%/10%2020 7 2022 7 80%2024 75%24 1.63/24 1.9/24 0.88/24 0.9/36 2023 37 38 39/1000/15.1/5.5/2.4/1.6/1.1/0.8 11.0/4.2/1.8/1.5/1.2/0.6 7 1000/1000/002601.sz 151.0 10.9%18.1%15.1 11.0 002145.sz 55.0 7.8%17.3%5.5 4.2 000629.sz 23.5 6.0%16.5%2.4 1.8 000545.sz 16.0 8.0%0.0%1.6 1.5 300891.sz 11.0 6.8%-17.9%1.1 1.2 002136.sz 8.0 4.1%23.3%0.8 0.6|15 3.5.Si-C-70%2022 2008 24 246 2023 279 67%22 DMC 21 24/5/17 DMC 1.36/5%06 1888/4%09 2019 106 2023 150 CAGR 9.1%21%17%16%10%9%2023 40 41 42 2023 SAGSI SMM|16 43 44 Wind Wind 45 2022 46 DMC ACMI/SAGSI SECC 47 DMC 48 DMC Wind 8 2022 DMC 62.3 35 30 28 15 194.2 364.5 CAFSI|17 9 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 152 168 191 246 279 328 115 128 142 171 181 201 75.8%76.2%74.3%69.4%64.7%65.0%14 15 13 10 10 10 1.4 1.1 2.1 1.7 5.0 4.8 130 144 158 182 196 216 22 24 38 45 41 41 1.1 1.6 2.7 5.1 4.8 4.2 108 119 119 134 155 175 yoy%10.5%0.2%11.8%16.4%12.9%Wind SMM 10 DMC 23 DMC 1000/603260.SH 86.5 555 26.2 8.7 300821.SZ 30 86-2.7 3.0 600596.SH 27.5 104 1.4 2.8 600409.SH 10 105 5.7 1.0 000830.SZ 4 224 8.2 0.4 Wind 1 2024 6 20 2 3 DMC 2024/3/8 4 DMC 1000 13%5 3.6.HCFCs HCFCs HCFC-22 HCFC-123 HCFC-124 HCFC-141b HCFC-142b HFCs HFC-32 HFC-125 HFC-134a 49 2(R245)|18 2020 HFCs 2020 HFCs 210 2020 HFCs 81.1 HFCs 39%2012 19.9 2020 33.2 6.6%2012 55%39%6%2020 54%5%39%41%50 2020 HFCs 51 2012 2020 2021 HFCs 2020-2022 HFCs 2024 2029 2016 10 15 28 HFCs 2021 6 17 2021 9 15 2020 2022 HFCs 2024 HFCs 2029 2045 HFCs 20%2018-2022 2018 HFCs R32 R125 R134a 2018-2019 13.9%/25.5%/2018-2023 60%2020 52 2018-2023 R32 53 2018-2023|19 R32 2023 4.97 2313 HFCs 2023 34.3 2022 4.5 22-24 HFCs 3 11-12 2024 1-3 HFCs 23%2024 1-3 5.3-23%R32 0.9-18%R125/R143/R143a 0.3-45%R134a 2.2-20%R410a 1.2-31%R152a 0.7-10%54 2022-2023 55 2022-2024 2023 11 6 2024 1 HFCs/2020-2022/HCFCs/65%2024 HFCs/18.53/0.1/8.95 CO2 2 24 2020-2022 3 HCFCs 65%2024 4 2024 HFCs 10%2024 1 11 2024 6 86%/34%/16%/12%/10%CR4 72%56 2024 CR4 72%2024 2 R32/R125/R134a 2 15 37.8%/29.5%/29.4%5 2 60.5%/50.2%/55.8%R32 R134a 2023 1.2|20 57 58 2024 HFCs 2024 1-5 R32/R125/R134a 2.4/4.0/3.2/67%/50%/36%1.1/2.3/1.7/554%/166%/168%59 R22 60 R32 wind wind 61 R125 62 R134a wind wind R22 1000/3/1.3/0.9/1.3/0.6/0.5 2.5/1/0.7/1.1/0.4/0.4 11 R22 1000/1000/600160.SH 25.4 4.7 30.1 8.2%11.2%3.0 2.5 603379.SH 11.7 0.95 12.7 3.1%15.8%1.3 1.0 600378.SH 8.8-8.8 17.6%8.6%0.9 0.7 0189.HK 7.6 5.4 13.0 9.9%6.4%1.3 1.1 605020.SH 5.5 0.4 5.9 12.4%28.2%0.6 0.4 600673.SH 4.8-4.8 10.1%13.5%0.5 0.4 wind 2023 2024|21 3.7.PVC PVC PVC 2021 2631 2023 2831 2024 330 2022 PVC PVC PVC 22/2/18 2223 23/12/29 612 2023 PVC 2062 2.8%2023 48%PVC 990 PVC 63 64 65 2023|22 66 67 Wind 68 2023 69 70 71 Wind 12 2023 PVC 415 313.9 261.5 142 5167.6 6300 13 PVC 23 PVC 100/002092.SZ ST 205 101-28.7 2.1 600075.SH 134 61-7.8 1.3 601568.SH 110 155 3.7 1.1 600409.SH 53 105 5.7 0.5 600618.SH 40 103 7.6 0.4 Wind 1 2024 6 20 2 3 2023 4 PVC 100 13%5|23 4.1 2 3 4|24/6 300 6 300 20%10%-20%-10%-10%-10%5%-5%-5%-5%B 11 100088 3 A 23 2301 570102(0898)-65365390 6 4 200086(8621)-65055515(8621)-61069806 5033 71 518000(86755)-23915663(86755)-82571995
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