20240620_国泰君安_有色金属行业2024年中期策略：预期回归现实把握内需边际机会_150页.pdf

预期回归现实，把握内需边际机会有色金属行业2024 年 中期策 略 1&5PMI 35.4/23H2 24Q22024 4 20242026+2 3 4 Wind2023-2-1-10112233100012001400160018002000220024002600COMEX金价 10Y 美 债实际 收益率（右）5 6 24Q1 GDP 1.3%WindPCE 5 PMI PMICPI 3%-3.5%PPI%-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.002000-032001-122003-092005-062007-032008-122010-092012-062014-032015-122017-092019-062021-032022-12美国:GDP:不 变价:环比 折年率:季调-20%0%20%40%2001-012002-082004-032005-102007-052008-122010-072012-022013-092015-042016-112018-062020-012021-082023-03美国:个人消 费支出:季调:折 年数：同比(5.00)0.005.0010.00美国:CPI:季调:当月同比美国:核心CPI:季调:当月同比-5%0%5%10%15%2010-112011-112012-112013-112014-112015-112016-112017-112018-112019-112020-112021-112022-112023-11美国:PPI:最 终需求:同比:季调305070902014-102015-062016-022016-102017-062018-022018-102019-062020-022020-102021-062022-022022-102023-062024-02美国:供应管 理协会(ISM):制 造业PMI美国:ISM:非 制造 业PMI0%1%2%3%4%5%6%2000-012001-062002-112004-042005-092007-022008-072009-122011-052012-102014-032015-082017-012018-062019-112021-042022-092024-02美国:核心PCE:当月同比 7 Wind2024.52024.530000.252023.7-2024.42023 72023 102023 122024 42023.9-2024.22023 9 14 2023 9 15 0.252024 1 24 2024 2 5 0.52024 2 20 5 LPR 252024.12023.820%30%LPR 202023.7 8 PMILSEG Database WindCPI%PPI%35.0040.0045.0050.0055.0060.0065.0070.002009-102010-082011-062012-042013-022013-122014-102015-082016-062017-042018-022018-122019-102020-082021-062022-042023-022023-12欧元区:制造业PMI 德国:制造业PMI法国:制造业PMI 英国:制造业PMI02000400060008000-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2000-012001-092003-052005-012006-092008-052010-012011-092013-052015-012016-092018-052020-012021-092023-05德国:进出口差额:美国（百 万欧元，右轴）德国:出口金额:同比-2.000.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.002000-012001-052002-092004-012005-052006-092008-012009-052010-092012-012013-052014-092016-012017-052018-092020-012021-052022-092024-01欧元区:HICP(调和CPI):当 月 同比2024.3.21 25 bp 1.5%2024.5.84.00%3.750%2024.5 62024.6.56 5 254.75%2024.6.66 625-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.002000-012001-082003-032004-102006-052007-122009-072011-022012-092014-042015-112017-062019-012020-082022-032023-10欧元区20国:PPI:当 月 同比 9/1:3 1:2Wind10Y 4.5%1.501.701.902.102.302.502.702020-01-08 2021-01-08 2022-01-08 2023-01-08 2024-01-08美国:国债拍卖:10 年期:竞拍倍数(3.00)(2.00)(1.00)0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.0010 年-3 个月 美国:国债收益率:10 年 美国:国债收益率:3 个月01000200030004000500060007000800090002000-032001-052002-072003-092004-112006-012007-032008-052009-072010-092011-112013-012014-032015-052016-072017-092018-112020-012021-032022-052023-07美国:外国投资者 持有美 国国债:合计0500010000150002000025000300003500040000美国:未偿公共债 务总额(十亿美 元)10 PMIHaver Analytics 11 1-4%-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.002015-012015-062015-112016-042016-092017-022017-072017-122018-052018-102019-032019-082020-012020-062020-112021-042021-092022-022022-072022-122023-052023-102024-03:2024 1 3-4 29%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%010002000300040005000600070002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122013-012014-022015-032016-042017-052018-062019-072020-082021-092022-102023-11美国:个人储蓄存 款总额:季调:折年数 同比-2.000.002.004.00:Fred Wind 12&590054 2.6 4.8%1502002503002022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01:()0.002.004.006.008.002000-122002-032003-062004-092005-122007-032008-062009-092010-122012-032013-062014-092015-122017-032018-062019-092020-122022-032023-06:02004006008002022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-05:FedWatch Wind 13 4000 2022H2 2FRED Wind1.2%2016 517005000000100000002 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 3 2 0 2 4:(MBS)14%202405 202405 202404 202403 202402 202401 202312 202311 202310 202309 202308 202307 202306 202305CPI 100.0%0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.113.4%0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.27.0%-2.0 1.1 1.1 2.3-0.9-0.2-1.6-2.1 1.2 4.4 0.0 0.5-3.03.9%-3.5 2.7 1.5 3.6-3.2-0.7-3.8-4.3 1.8 8.3-0.1 0.6-4.53.1%-0.2-0.7 0.7 0.8 1.4 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3-1.2CPI 79.6%0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.418.6%-0.1-0.1-0.1 0.1-0.3-0.3-0.2 0.3-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.1 0.62.6%-0.3 1.2 0.7 0.6-0.7 0.0-0.6 0.0-0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.23.6%-0.3-0.6-0.3-0.1 0.0-0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2-0.1-0.2-0.21.9%0.6-1.4-1.1 0.5-3.4 0.6 1.4-0.4-1.8-1.9-1.5-0.6 3.23.4%-0.6-0.5 0.3-0.3-0.1-1.2-1.1 1.4-1.2-1.2-0.4 0.1-0.71.4%1.3 0.5 0.1 0.1-0.6-0.2 0.5 0.6-0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.52.0%-0.1 0.0-0.5-0.2 0.8-0.5-0.6 0.2 0.3-0.4-0.8-0.3-0.131.0%0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.436.2%0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.67.6%0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5OER 26.7%0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.51.5%-0.1-0.2 0.1 0.2 1.8 0.2-0.5-2.2 2.8-2.1 0.2-1.2 1.024.8%-0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.26.5%0.3 0.4 0.6-0.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0-0.3-0.1-0.13.2%-0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.5-0.1 0.7 0.4 0.05.0%0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2-0.3-0.16.5%-0.5 0.9 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.32.9%-0.1 1.8 2.6 0.9 4.4 1.7 1.2 1.9 1.4 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.90.8%-3.6-0.8-0.6 3.6 1.4 0.9-0.2-0.9 0.3 4.9-8.1-8.1-3.0 15 QQE YCC1 YCC QQE 2013 4 QEQQE 2016 QQEYCC YCC 201610 YCC QEQE YCCYCC 16 Wind12006 2000 2006-2007 0%0.5%2 25bp 20000%0.25%1 25bp YCC 2022 12 YCC0.25%0.5%2023 10 1.0%2000 8 11 25bp 0.25%2000Q4-2002 2006 7 14 25bp0.25%2007 82000 8 112000/7/12 2000/8/4 2000/8/18 2000/9/10 2000/11/9 2001/1/8 2001/8/11 2002/8/11225 8%-3%1%2%-7%-14%-27%-38%500 1%-1%1%2%-5%-12%-19%-38%-4%-2%1%-5%-1%2%-5%-20%-3%-4%0%7%5%-20%-15%-17%LME-3%0%1%6%-2%-5%-22%-20%3%0%1%0%-3%-2%1%15%2006 7 142006/6/14 2006/7/7 2006/7/21 2006/8/13 2006/10/12 2006/12/11 2007/7/14 2008/7/13 2009/7/13225-4%3%0%5%10%11%23%-12%-39%500 0%2%0%2%10%14%26%0%-27%-8%4%0%-4%7%31%135%72%85%-13%-5%-5%-2%-24%-20%0%87%-21%LME-19%-4%-11%-6%-8%-14%-2%3%-39%-14%-5%-4%-3%-14%-6%0%45%37%17 219%Wind 1968 1 100图：黄金、原 油大 幅领 涨 表：1968-1980 有色各 品种 涨幅 中，黄金 涨幅 最大，铜 涨幅 最小050010001500200025003000350002004006008001000120014001600180020001968-011968-071969-011969-071970-011970-071971-011971-071972-011972-071973-011973-071974-011974-071975-011975-071976-011976-071977-011977-071978-011978-071979-011979-071980-011980-071981-011981-07 33%165%198%241%208%370%1416%2911%18 19 20 50%60%70%80%90%100%110%(2024 2025 42 17 9.3 7.7 20 10 10.0 17 17 2.9 14.1 20 20 8.4 11.6 10 0 12.5 0 11 0 20 0 10 0 162.5 64 30.6 33.4 3,580 3,734 3,884 4,043 4,167 4,283 4,316-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0002019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 21 4305 66 29 33 13 57 8 63 30 4-145 4464 41004200430044004500460047004100420043004400450046004700领域 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 959 968 823 699 1%-15%-15%479 547 612 674 14%12%10%445 487 516 537 9%6%4%488 543 576 599 11%6%4%169 168 181 192-1%8%6%459 478 535 589 4%12%10%262 271 279 285 4%3%2%148 210 273 341 42%30%25%119 125 129 131 5%3%2%572 508 538 549-11%6%2%4,100 4,305 4,464 4,597 5.0%3.7%3.0%22-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2019/4 2020/4 2021/4 2022/4 2023/4 2024/4:-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2019/4 2020/4 2021/4 2022/4 2023/4 2024/4:():23 283.5226.8128.40 50 100 150 200 250 300203020252018 05101520252015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 GW 1001422002603400%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0501001502002503003504002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 25-302019-2023 CAGR 36%36%2025226.8 kg 24-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%:-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%:25 5005506006507007501 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019-50005001000150020002021/6 2021/12 2022/6 2022/12 2023/6 2023/12 2024/6 26 2503003504004505005502500270029003100330035003700390041002022/5 2022/11 2023/5 2023/11 2024/5/FOB/2024 2025 Alcoa Kwinana 175-117-582024 5 Rio TintoYarwun120-60 02024 3 9 Queensland 295-177-58 42%22%6%6%4%20%2024 177 9.4%Alcoa Kwinana 2024 5 Rio Tinto Yarwun Queensland3-9 2024 177 9.4%2023 1623 42%FOB 347/510/47%27-2000-1500-1000-500050010002021/6 2021/12 2022/6 2022/12 2023/6 2023/12/01020304050602020/4 2021/4 2022/4 2023/4 2024/4 2024 4 2024 4 2024 6 12-6082024 1-3 95+106%4 10.810 28 16.1 14.3 13.3 10.8 11.1 7.9 7.6 0246810121416182017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%02000400060008000100001200014000 USGS 2023 2.3%25%2023 8 2023 60%70%25%29 050100150200250300 8,377 7,781 7,518 6,663 7,023 7,374-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,0002021A 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 20232024 4 118 40-38.1%-37.9%2024-2026-11.4%5.4%20242025 2024-2026 6,663 7,023 7,374-11.4%5.4%5.0%30 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000:02004006008001,0001,2001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2024 1-4 2019-2023CAGR 22%2024 1-4 3742 8%6-112020-2024 6%-24%2024 31-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000:-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000:Bauxite Hills Aurukun 2024-2025 Aurukun 800/2025 Alcoa 2024 Kwinana 176/2024-2025 16.1%3.4%2024-2025 6641 6766 2024-20254012 4148 16.1%3.4%/Bauxite Hills 2024-2025 250Aurukun 2025 800(Kwinana)2024 176Yarwun Queensland 2024 3-9 120 32-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000:-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%05001,0001,5002,0002,500:2024-20258282/8689 0.4%/4.9%2024-2025 2024-2025-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000:/Bauxite Hills 2024-2025 250Aurukun 2025 800(Kwinana)2024 176Yarwun Queensland 2024 3-9 120 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 7,781 7,518 6,663 7,023-299+296-400-100 8,080 7,221 7,063 7,123 8,148 10,177 11,195 12,315 3,234 3,640 4,012 4,148 1,542 615 600 700-397-532 0+200 13,321 14,965 15,808 16,962 3,513 3,140 3,071 3,097 4,675 5,109 5,211 5,593 8,188 8,249 8,282 8,689 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 4,033 4,166 4283 4333 7,764 8,020 8,245 8,341 399 412 429 446 8,162 8,432 8,673 8,787 8,186 8,244 8,282 8,689 98 58 60 40 8,284 8,302 8,342 8,729/122-130-331-57 33 253545556575852002503003504004505005502018/5 2019/5 2020/5 2021/5 2022/5 2023/5 2024/5/CIF/-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000:2024-2025 2024 11%2.7 2.3 2024-2025-935/-200/Bauxite Hills 2024-2025 250Aurukun 2025 800(Kwinana)2024 176Yarwun Queensland 2024 3-9 1202022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 8,080 7,221 7,063 7,123 8,148 10,177 11,195 12,315 3,234 3,640 4,222 4,148 1,939 1,147 400 500 13,321 14,965 15,817 16,962 21,401 22,186 22,880 24,085 21,696 21,646 23,815 24,285/-295 540-935-200 34 4500/2015 UMS2015100 2019 4430 Winning Alliance Group 赢联盟联合体成员企业股权占比 承担任务 22.5%45%10%Rio Nunez Katougouma United Mining Supply UMS 22.5%100115031504300443005001000150020002500300035004000450050002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 35 1444 2921 2831 2813 1380 1453 1623 1764 379 369 386 688 05001000150020002500300035002019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 1,444 1,721 1,601 1,458 1,200 1,230 1,355 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2019 1444 20191380 2.5 42%2022 2813 20201764 68%:2022 1355 36 代码 上市公司2024 铝权益产量（万吨）单吨完全成 本（元/吨）所得税其他板块净利润（亿元）0618 收盘价假 设 现货铝 价（元/吨）假 设 现货铝 价（元/吨）20000 21000 22000 23000 24000 20000 21000 22000 23000 24000 20000 21000 22000 23000 240002024 理论业 绩（亿 元）2024 理论eps 2024PE000933 神火股份 130 15,097 15%24 22.07 53 63 73 82 92 2.36 2.79 3.23 3.66 4.10 9 8 7 6 5000807 云铝股份 227 14,410 15%0 13.87 63 80 98 115 132 1.83 2.32 2.81 3.30 3.80 8 6 5 4 4002532 天山铝业 116 12,976 25%1 8.02 42 50 58 65 73 0.91 1.07 1.24 1.41 1.57 9 7 6 6 51378.hk 中国宏桥 594 14,889 22%30 12.32 160 201 241 282 323 1.69 2.12 2.55 2.98 3.41 7 6 5 4 4601600 中国铝业 387 15,222 23%28 7.55 100 125 151 176 202 0.58 0.73 0.88 1.03 1.17 13 10 9 7 6 37 38 0.60.81.01.21.41.61.82,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002021/9 2021/12 2022/3 2022/6 2022/9LME(/)LME()Wind2022H1 2022 2 24LME 3 7 325 LME LME LME3 2022H1 LME 1400016000180002000022000240002600015002000250030003500400045002021/9 2021/12 2022/3 2022/6 2022/9LME SHFE 2022 39 47%49%42%37%36%28%14%14%21%21%27%38%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2022242628302021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/102024/1-5051015202530:2022 2-5 2022 2022 2 23-11%202328%38%2022 2-5 30%2022 2-5IAI Wind2022 40 30354045505560652022/1 2022/7 2023/1 2023/7 2024/1:PMI:PMI:01020304050607080:2022H1 PMI/2022H1 2022H1 2022H1 PMI2022H1 34%2022H1351 34%SMM Wind02004006008001000120014002022/12022/22022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/82022/92022/102022/112022/12 2022 41 02004006008001000120014005.05.56.06.57.07.58.02018/4 2019/4 2020/4 2021/4 2022/4 2023/4 2024/4/-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01002003004005006007002017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024Q1 Wind SMM418 7.69 6.9924Q1+7.4%2022 660.4 2023 2024Q1148 7.4%2024Q1 7.4%42 3035404550556065702020/3 2021/3 2022/3 2023/3 2024/3 PMI PMI PMI-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2004/3 2009/3 2014/3 2019/3 2024/3:PPI:46%19%15%12%5%3%PMI 2022 46%19%2023 2024 1-3 PMIUn Comtrade Wind 43 53%43%39%38%32%29%26%23%20%18%15%13%12%10%10%5%5%4%4%2%1%0%0%0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%A A 44 32%31%30%32%30%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 77%80%79%82%82%74%71%75%19%18%19%14%16%19%21%20%024681012142015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1 40%2 90%75%2022 90%75%30%2000 30%2020-2023 2.9 pct-7.6 pct 2022 90%45 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%01020304050602020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 21%19%13%3%2%3%39%23.2 23.2 29.9 29.4 28.9 16.1 18.5 24.9 29.4 32.4 051015202530352019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2023 2023 32.4 21%28.919%2024 45-50 2018 20 2023 34-3515 2025 2024 45 50 2023 2024-2025 45 50 46 0%5%10%15%20%25%0204060801001201402015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 10681001400204060801001201401602018A 2020A 2024E 2025E/2023 9.7%2023 124.44 9.7%100 140 2017 2024 100140Wind 47 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%-2,000-1,500-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000-/2016-2023 23%-31%2023 64.5 24%-LME-Wind0501001502002503002016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 48 0%5%10%15%20%25%05101520252019 2020 2021 2022 2023 42.98%24.38%32.64%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0246810122019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 10.87 24%2022 4 2022-2026 5 36 7.222.1 35 2019-2023 CAGR 16.9%2023 20.85 22.122.56 35 2023 2023 43%24%2023 10.87 2019-2023 CAGR 16.9%49 证券代码 证券简称2023 年加工费(元/吨）价格上涨 后对应 的毛利 增加值（亿 元）2024EEPS*（元）价格上涨 后对应EPS的增加 价格上涨 后对应 的PE5%10%20%30%5%10%20%30%5%10%20%30%600219.SH 南山铝业 4,906 2.35 4.71 7.06 9.42 0.33 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 11 10 10 9603876.SH 鼎胜新材 8,228 3.10 6.20 9.30 12.41 0.59 0.35 0.70 1.05 1.39 9 7 6 5601702.SH 华峰铝业 8,345 1.37 2.74 4.11 5.47 1.20 0.14 0.27 0.41 0.55 14 13 12 11601677.SH 明泰铝业 4,788 2.79 5.58 8.37 11.16 1.24 0.22 0.45 0.67 0.90 7 6 6 5300337.SZ 银邦股份 4,568 0.47 0.95 1.42 1.89 0.18 0.06 0.12 0.17 0.23 31 25 21 18002160.SZ 常铝股份 8,280 1.03 2.07 3.10 4.14 0.24 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 25 13 9 7600673.SH 东阳光 8,590 0.75 1.51 2.26 3.01 0.41 0.03 0.05 0.08 0.10 18 17 16 15002988.SZ 豪美新材 5,026 0.63 1.27 1.90 2.54 0.98 0.26 0.51 0.77 1.02 14 11 10 8002540.SZ 亚太科技 9,488 1.14 2.29 3.43 4.58 0.56 0.09 0.18 0.27 0.37 8 7 6 6*注：各铝加 工企业2024年EPS 来自Wind 一致预期 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 公司22 年之前 业绩连 年上涨-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%0204060801001201401601802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023营业收入（亿元）归母净利 润（亿 元）yoy yoy 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 1.75 1.93 16.46 14.92 80 81