20240623_湘财证券_IVD&医疗服务行业2024年度中期投资策略：优选细分成长布局预期改善_37页.pdf

优 选细分 成长，布局 预期改 善 相关研究：1.2023.12.25 行业评级：增持%1 3 12-4-19-37-6-22-35 300 分析 师：蒋栋 证书 编号：S0500521050001 Tel：(8621)50295368 Email：地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号中国人寿金融中心10楼 2023 2024 CDMO 2023 GDP 2022 50 59 GDP CXO CDMO biotech CDMO CDMO ADC CDMO 2023 2024Q1 2023 2024 PCR IVD ICL 2024 CXO 证券研 究报告 2024 年 06 月23 日 湘财 证券研究 所 行业 研究 IVD&医疗 服务 行业 2024 年度中期 投资 策略 IVD&yiliaofuw 2 IVD&30%IVD&1 CRO ACD CDMO CDMO IVD 2 IVD 1 2 3 4 ZXDWuNrMtQrQrPpMrMtMrQ8OdN6MnPnNsQtPfQoOpRiNsQrM6MnNwOvPnOnPNZsQvN 1 IVD&正文目录 1.4 1.1.4 1.2.5 1.3.7 1.4.9 2 CXO.10 2.1.12 2.2.15 2.3.16 3.18 3.1 2023 Q1.18 3.2.20 3.3.22 4.25 4.1.25 4.2.26 4.3 ICL.30 5.31 5.1.31 5.2.33 6.34 2 IVD&图表目录 1.4 2.4 3 2017-2024Q1.4 4 2017-2024Q1.4 5 65.6 6 2018.6 7 2010-2022 GDP.6 8%.7 9 GDP%.7 10 2016 2024 1-4.8 11 2018 2023.8 12.9 13.9 14 2024 33.7%.10 15.11 16.11 17 2012-2023.15 18 2012-2023.15 19.16 20 CDMO.17 21 CDMO.17 22 2018 2030 ADC.18 23.20 24.20 25 2010-2022 GDP.21 26.21 27.22 28%.22 29 PE TTM.23 30.23 31 IVD.27 32.27 33 PCR.28 34.28 35.28 36 2015-2030E.29 37 2020 2030.30 38.31 39 PE.32 40 PB.32 41 2013 PE.33 yBm0brtroAt5TKkflP7VHZDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD7j0Na59rrFlu6GI/z/qixl 3 IVD&1.5 2.5 3.10 4.12 5 CXO 2023/2024Q1.13 6 CXO.13 7 CXO.14 8.19 9 2023/2024Q1.19 10.24 11 2023.24 12 2024Q1.25 13.25 14 IVD 2023&2024Q1.26 15 2023/2024Q1.30 16.31 17.31 18.32 4 IVD&1 1.1 2023 25205.7 3.7%3473 15.1%2024Q1 6082.7 2.0%822.5 2.7%2023 1 Wind 2 Wind 2023 24,958.8 1.7%1581.7 16.8%2024Q1 6359.4 0.8%559.8 11.4%2024Q1 3 2017-2024Q1 4 2017-2024Q1 Wind 2024 Q1 Wind 2024 Q1 2023 5.5%23.9%16.4%5 IVD&49.2%CXO IVD 2024Q1 7.8%3.4%41.2%33.0%1 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1 12.5%9.5%1.7%-0.8%32.5%39.5%-5.5%-7.8%II 8.6%4.3%6.0%-0.7%8.0%3.1%-0.4%-0.3%31.7%7.1%9.9%-6.9%11.4%8.4%7.8%1.3%11.4%21.0%-23.9%-3.4%Wind 2 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1 50.8%-1.4%-16.8%-11.4%30.2%46.7%-16.4%-41.2%II 1470.3%-39.3%33.9%-8.1%11.6%-1.7%-18.1%5.1%47.3%-21.0%-7.5%-33.0%4.9%-8.2%-0.9%-1.8%5.9%24.0%-49.2%-9.2%Wind 1.2 2023 65 15.4%2022 0.5pct 2020 2018 55-64 65 32.7%42.6%55 6 IVD&5 65 6 2018 2010-2022 19980.4 84846.7 GDP 2022 7.0%2021 0.3 7 2010-2022 GDP Wind 1950 1950 2023 50 59 16.6%7 IVD&8%GDP GDP WHO 2019 GDP 10%16.8%10.7%11.7%GDP 2022 7.0%GDP 9 GDP%Wind 2022 2019 1.3 2017-2019 2020 2024 4 11 2023 2023 3.33 2.81 2023 17.6%12.2%8 IVD&2024 1-4 9675.3 7169.71 10 2016 2024 1-4 11 2018 2023 2018 4+7 9 50%2023 11 7 41 58%167 373 9 IVD&12 13 1.4 2023 7 21 1 2023 9 2024 5 16 14 2024 5 15 10 IVD&3 2023/7/21 1 2023/7/28 2023/8/15 2023/9/9 2023 2023/9/14 2023 25 2023 28 2024/5/17 14 2024 2 CXO 2022 CRO 6 7 33.7%14 2024 33.7%Wind 11 IVD&PE 2024 6 7 7039.8 33.7%300 3579.9 4.2%PE 18.2 5.6%15 Wind biotech ADC CXO CRO ADC CDMO 16 12 IVD&2.1 2.1.1 CXO 2023 2024Q1 2.9%13.8%18.3%42.9%2024Q1 CXO 4 YoY YoY 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1 42.9%65.5%-2.9%-13.8%64.5%61.1%-18.3%-42.9%49.7%8.9%7.6%-11.7%82.4%-33.1%-16.0%-51.4%15.8%-0.7%13.2%5.5%33.6%-18.5%6.1%-17.8%3.1%-20.2%-9.9%1.4%-10.6%-64.4%-36.3%9.3%8.6%4.3%6.0%-0.7%1470.3%-39.3%33.9%-8.1%24.2%50.1%-62.4%-13.7%34.1%54.8%-80.9%-34.4%6.1%2.5%0.6%-0.2%24.9%-5.5%-10.6%7.3%13.0%10.9%10.0%-2.0%10.6%7.7%15.6%-4.6%16.2%6.1%-4.3%-0.4%-5.1%7.4%-36.6%-2.8%17.0%19.6%15.1%-5.2%2.0%30.1%1.5%11.3%21.4%-0.9%27.0%1.7%-86.1%-181.9%865.6%-18.8%14.2%30.2%10.6%11.4%2.4%29.4%-3.0%-3.1%11.2%6.3%7.4%0.1%5.6%-18.0%-0.1%-1.3%Wind 2023 2022 CDMO-47.9%-86.7%-23.7%-31.3%CRO CDMO+58.7%+26.2%+29.6%+86.1%+13.2%+43.3%2024Q1 CDMO-50.8%-131.2%-37.8%-55.3%13 IVD&5 CXO 2023/2024Q1 Wind 2.1.2 2023 CXO 2022 CXO CXO CXO 2023 6 CXO 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 14763 17730 21744 26411 34912 44361 41116 YoY 20.1%22.6%21.5%32.2%27.1%-7.3%5166 6171 7393 11012 14923 19481 20295 YoY 20.1%19.8%49.0%35.5%30.5%4.2%3214 3898 4959 6032 8326 9233 9701 YoY 20.1%27.2%21.6%38.0%10.9%5.1%CXO 301096.SZ 67.5%34.0%40.1%42.1%688076.SH 58.7%71.0%26.2%215.6%688131.SH 38.4%20.7%-34.2%-63.8%688621.SH 37.8%8.5%18.1%51.8%835670.BJ 35.2%-56.6%374.2%118.5%300404.SZ 31.2%62.1%-12.0%40.7%301520.SZ 31.1%25.1%9.5%18.8%688073.SH 30.9%4.0%-24.9%-29.4%301257.SZ 29.6%17.4%86.1%-10.2%688265.SH 21.0%-5.0%-281.2%9.4%688046.SH 20.5%12.0%-3.5%-5.1%301333.SZ 13.2%10.2%43.3%-19.9%688222.SH 12.6%54.3%61.2%248.4%300759.SZ 12.4%-2.0%16.5%-33.8%300725.SZ 8.2%-1.6%-37.2%-14.3%301509.SZ 7.0%-41.9%7.5%-58.8%600721.SH 5.5%20.0%137.3%209.0%603127.SH 4.8%-12.1%-63.0%-245.0%300347.SZ 4.2%-8.0%0.9%-58.6%603259.SH 2.5%-11.0%9.0%-10.4%301230.SZ 2.3%7.7%-44.0%-76.0%603456.SH 1.4%-15.7%12.2%-15.7%301201.SZ 0.7%-1.3%-14.6%-5.1%300149.SZ-14.2%-12.7%-339.8%10.9%688202.SH-17.7%-42.5%-109.8%-137.0%002821.SZ-23.7%-37.8%-31.3%-55.3%688238.SH-29.7%93.5%-425.9%-32.8%300363.SZ-47.9%-50.8%-86.7%-131.2%14 IVD&2682 3291 3840 5477 7126 9719 9788 YoY 20.1%16.7%42.6%30.1%36.4%0.7%672 817 1224 1483 2140 2788 2510 YoY 20.1%49.8%21.2%44.3%30.3%-10.0%711 939 1219 1642 2440 3298 2600 YoY 20.1%29.8%34.7%48.6%35.2%-21.2%427 512 652 763 1735 2487 2455 YoY 20.1%27.3%17.0%127.4%43.3%-1.3%1784 1642 2077 2635 3782 5332 4915 YoY 20.1%26.5%26.9%43.5%41.0%-7.8%330 2428 2439 2657 2636 2072 1916 YoY 20.1%0.5%8.9%-0.8%-21.4%-7.5%Wind 2023 CXO 2023 3.5%7 CXO 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 8.4 15.3 20.9 30.9 57.7 74.7 69.8 YoY 81.0%37.0%47.5%87.0%29.5%-6.6%2.9 0.3 2.2 8.2 13.7 16.7 26.3 YoY-88.0%522.8%277.7%67.4%21.6%57.6%0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.2 1.9 3.2 YoY 145.8%296.0%-14.2%74.1%1.1 3.1 3.6 6.7 10.5 10.7 13.3 YoY 189.7%17.4%86.2%56.1%2.4%24.1%0.5 0.8 0.4 0.5 1.3 2.8 3.4 YoY 61.9%-55.6%37.7%161.9%118.1%23.1%0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.0 1.4 1.4 YoY 405.3%5.4%-39.4%828.7%39.5%1.7%0.1 0.1 1.3 1.7 5.8 3.6 2.6 YoY 32.3%1099.4%34.7%236.0%-37.9%-28.3%0.5 0.4 0.6 1.9 3.4 10.3 6.9 YoY-2.4%43.3%198.7%80.8%201.3%-32.6%0.0 0.1 0.4 3.1 2.4 0.8 0.1 YoY 341.3%285.3%628.9%-23.7%-68.0%-89.4%13.5 20.3 29.8 53.6 97.9 122.8 127.1 YoY 50.7%46.6%80.0%82.6%25.5%3.5%Wind 15 IVD&2.2 2.2.1 2023 3076 574 2022 21.3%2022 2023 11 2020 2000 2020 2022 2023 17 2012-2023 2023 2017 2018 2023 30.1%2021 2023 18 2012-2023 16 IVD&2.2.2 Pharmaprojects 2023 21292 5.9%2023 2022+8.2%2021+4.8%6.9%19 Pharmaprojects biotech 2.3 2.3.1 DNA GMP(2023-2024)2018 2022 CDMO 8.7 32.6 39.3%2027,197.4 2022 2027 43.3%17 IVD&20 CDMO 2.3.2 GLP-1 CDMO GLP-1 GLP-1 GLP-1 GLP-1 CDMO 2023 CDMO 33 2030 79 2020 2025 17.7%21 CDMO 2.3.3 ADC CXO ADC 18 IVD&ADC ADC ADC ADC ADC 2018 5 2022 15 CAGR 34.50%2030 110 22 2018 2030 ADC 3 2023 2024 3.1 2023 Q1 2023+70.3%+68.7%+57.5%+1202.6%+40.1%+111.8%+26.4%+190.4%+24.1%+29.6%+26.4%+33.1%2024Q1 19 IVD&8 YoY YoY 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1 42.9%65.5%-2.9%-13.8%64.5%61.1%-18.3%-42.9%49.7%8.9%7.6%-11.7%82.4%-33.1%-16.0%-51.4%15.8%-0.7%13.2%5.5%33.6%-18.5%6.1%-17.8%3.1%-20.2%-9.9%1.4%-10.6%-64.4%-36.3%9.3%8.6%4.3%6.0%-0.7%1470.3%-39.3%33.9%-8.1%24.2%50.1%-62.4%-13.7%34.1%54.8%-80.9%-34.4%6.1%2.5%0.6%-0.2%24.9%-5.5%-10.6%7.3%13.0%10.9%10.0%-2.0%10.6%7.7%15.6%-4.6%16.2%6.1%-4.3%-0.4%-5.1%7.4%-36.6%-2.8%17.0%19.6%15.1%-5.2%2.0%30.1%1.5%11.3%21.4%-0.9%27.0%1.7%-86.1%-181.9%865.6%-18.8%14.2%30.2%10.6%11.4%2.4%29.4%-3.0%-3.1%11.2%6.3%7.4%0.1%5.6%-18.0%-0.1%-1.3%Wind 9 2023/2024Q1 Wind 2020 2021 2022 2023 2022 13.8%000516.SZ 70.3%10.7%68.7%-40.4%301239.SZ 57.5%4.0%1202.6%-89.6%002622.SZ 51.1%26.1%63.3%-546.7%002524.SZ 40.1%-7.8%111.8%-138.6%300143.SZ 27.2%15.2%116.9%-33.7%002044.SZ 26.4%-14.9%190.4%-66.7%300015.SZ 26.4%3.5%33.1%15.2%600568.SH 26.2%10.3%57.0%17.7%301267.SZ 24.1%5.1%29.6%3.8%301103.SZ 24.1%-7.2%95.0%-49.0%301293.SZ 22.7%7.9%23.3%35.3%002219.SZ 13.6%9.8%-80.3%12.2%002173.SZ 13.5%-1.4%53.3%-37.9%002172.SZ 7.5%7.0%423.3%-15.4%600763.SH 4.7%5.0%-8.7%2.5%20 IVD&23 Wind 3.2 3.2.1 2023 65 15.4%2021 0.5pct 24 2003 509.5 2022 6044.1 12 21 IVD&13.9%25 2010-2022 GDP Wind 2022 6,044 2019 7.7 3.7 3.1 26 Wind 2022 2019 3.2.2 22 IVD&2010 7,068 2022 25,230 11.18%2010 13,850 11,746 27 Wind 3.3 3.3.1 2024 28.3%2024 6 7 28%Wind 2024 6 7 TTM 36.20 23 IVD&5 6.57%29 PE TTM Wind 3.3.2 30 24 IVD&3.3.3 2023 2022 28.8%2024Q1 2023 44.9%37.7%2024Q1 5.3%2024Q1 0.8%10 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023Q1 2024Q1()156.21 174.95 217.15 227.20 292.78 71.08 73.14 YoY 20.9%12.0%24.1%4.6%28.8%21.3%3.0%17.99 23.10 30.01 30.12 43.66 11.43 10.83 YoY 51.7%28.4%29.7%0.5%44.9%52.3%-5.3%17.22 26.15 33.50 32.13 44.23 10.18 10.26 YoY 36.4%51.8%28.1%-4.1%37.7%33.9%0.8%Wind 11 2023 301267.SZ 301239.SZ 301103.SZ 002524.SZ 300015.SZ 211 70 40 22 1,176 38.13 24.59 11.28 10.22 191.06 YoY 24.1%57.5%24.1%40.1%26.4%6.66 2.68 0.64 0.09 33.59 YoY 29.6%1202.6%95.0%111.8%33.1%6.62 1.98 0.55-0.06 35.14 YoY 22.4%967.1%105.6%98.0%20.4%49.0%44.0%41.8%35.1%50.8%16.9%10.2%4.9%0.9%18.0%Wind 25 IVD&12 2024Q1 301267.SZ 301239.SZ 301103.SZ 002524.SZ 300015.SZ 211 70 40 22 1,176 38.13 24.59 11.28 10.22 191.06 YoY 5.1%4.0%-7.2%-7.8%3.5%1.56 0.17 0.29-0.19 8.99 YoY 3.8%-89.6%-49.0%-138.6%15.2%1.57 0.19 0.28-0.22 8.43 YoY 6.9%-73.3%-48.6%-163.9%12.0%49.0%40.5%43.7%33.5%48.3%16.8%2.8%9.5%-9.6%18.7%Wind 4 4.1 2023 62.4%80.9%2024Q1 13.7%34.4%13 YoY YoY 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1 42.9%65.5%-2.9%-13.8%64.5%61.1%-18.3%-42.9%49.7%8.9%7.6%-11.7%82.4%-33.1%-16.0%-51.4%15.8%-0.7%13.2%5.5%33.6%-18.5%6.1%-17.8%3.1%-20.2%-9.9%1.4%-10.6%-64.4%-36.3%9.3%8.6%4.3%6.0%-0.7%1470.3%-39.3%33.9%-8.1%24.2%50.1%-62.4%-13.7%34.1%54.8%-80.9%-34.4%6.1%2.5%0.6%-0.2%24.9%-5.5%-10.6%7.3%13.0%10.9%10.0%-2.0%10.6%7.7%15.6%-4.6%16.2%6.1%-4.3%-0.4%-5.1%7.4%-36.6%-2.8%17.0%19.6%15.1%-5.2%2.0%30.1%1.5%11.3%21.4%-0.9%27.0%1.7%-86.1%-181.9%865.6%-18.8%14.2%30.2%10.6%11.4%2.4%29.4%-3.0%-3.1%11.2%6.3%7.4%0.1%5.6%-18.0%-0.1%-1.3%Wind 26 IVD&2023 1 2 2024Q1 14 IVD 2023&2024Q1 Wind 4.2 4.2.1 PCR IVD IVD IVD 300318.SZ 31.3%3.6%68.2%283.9%300832.SZ 29.0%16.6%24.5%20.0%300685.SZ 23.9%19.5%-0.9%12.0%688656.SH 23.1%6.0%13.6%-31.5%688338.SH 20.4%13.6%12.3%14.5%688389.SH 16.5%10.1%30.7%21.7%300406.SZ 15.3%5.5%34.6%8.7%300396.SZ 13.0%99.6%5.3%56.7%600645.SH 2.2%5.4%-5.8%7.4%688067.SH 1.8%14.5%19.8%136.4%603658.SH 0.0%5.1%4.3%33.9%688393.SH-2.0%11.8%-6.2%2.2%301087.SZ-4.1%-5.6%-15.7%-24.8%688468.SH-4.3%10.4%-3.4%10.2%000710.SZ-15.8%-0.3%-71.6%139.7%300463.SZ-19.7%-8.9%-55.9%3.1%300642.SZ-24.2%-23.6%-28.3%-140.3%300439.SZ-24.2%-1.9%29.2%10.8%603387.SH-24.8%-16.3%-43.9%-29.2%300289.SZ-34.6%-12.5%127.3%-132.6%300676.SZ-38.3%-14.0%-88.4%-69.9%688217.SH-39.1%12.8%-80.4%-58.7%688193.SH-45.9%15.6%-64.6%157.9%688575.SH-48.4%-34.6%-64.9%-18.7%603392.SH-50.7%-73.9%-73.7%-89.9%300482.SZ-51.3%3.5%-59.3%7.2%300942.SZ-63.0%-39.9%-322.9%74.7%688105.SH-64.0%-0.2%-111.9%110.3%002022.SZ-65.2%-46.8%-124.1%-152.6%688767.SH-76.7%30.8%-86.2%233.1%688606.SH-77.7%-15.3%-84.8%10.5%300639.SZ-80.3%-39.4%-91.9%-122.0%688289.SH-84.4%100.3%-81.2%35.0%688068.SH-84.8%-42.8%-97.1%-91.4%688317.SH-88.2%-39.3%-118.0%346.5%002030.SZ-90.2%-41.9%-98.1%-1093.6%688298.SH-90.6%-51.4%-119.2%-33.8%688075.SH-91.8%6.5%-95.4%38.1%688399.SH-92.7%-3.1%-120.5%306.3%002932.SZ-92.9%-83.6%-98.2%-57.5%27 IVD&970 IVD 2023 2025 1000 IVD 45.55%31 IVD PCR 2018 2022 15%PCR 2023 2026 2023 2026 32 PCR 28 IVD&33 PCR 4.2.2 2013 1.78 2019 12.97 39.24%2013 875 2019 4,942 33.45%34 35 29 IVD&4.2.3 CGM BGM CGM 24 BGM CGM 2020 CGM 21.4%2030 49.4%CGM 2015 17 2020 57 28.2%2030 20.4%365 36 2015-2030E IDF CGM CGM 2020 33.6%46%20.3%CGM 2020 3 CGM 99.9%CGM 30 IVD&CGM 2020 1 6.9%2030 38.0%37 2020 2030 IDF 4.3 ICL 2022 ICL 2023 2024Q1 15 2023/2024Q1 Wind 2020-2022 2023 40.9%Q1 2024Q1 8.9%2023 83.2%2024Q1 0.06 98.3%2024Q1 301060.SZ-60.1%5.8%-122.9%-95.0%603882.SH-44.8%-13.0%-76.6%-112.5%300676.SZ-38.3%-14.0%-88.4%-69.9%300244.SZ-33.9%-8.0%-78.6%-85.5%000710.SZ-15.8%-0.3%-71.6%139.7%31 IVD&16 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023Q1 2024Q1()148.35 200.83 267.41 398.81 235.57 57.46 52.36 YoY 18.6%35.3%33.1%49.1%-40.9%-40.8%-8.9%8.42 24.23 35.86 48.04 8.09 3.31 0.06 YoY 21.1%187.8%48.0%34.0%-83.2%-81.4%-98.3%6.66 23.02 34.64 49.78 5.07 2.90-0.05 YoY 15.0%245.6%50.4%43.7%-89.8%-83.5%-101.8%Wind 17 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023Q1 2024Q1 34.6%41.3%42.3%40.0%32.4%34.8%27.5%7.3%13.8%15.3%13.6%4.5%7.1%0.9%11.1%10.1%10.3%8.2%10.6%9.0%9.7%8.5%7.5%8.2%6.6%7.9%6.5%7.1%1.6%1.1%0.9%0.7%0.9%1.1%1.0%/8.2%16.1%13.5%9.2%15.7%0.9%-8.5%Wind 5 5.1 2024 2024 6 7 7284.24 15.33%26 300 19.50 pct 38 Wind 2024 6 7 32 IVD&2024-3.93%-5.75%-32.78%OK 18 Wind 2024 6 7 2024 6 7 PE 34.37X 31.18X PE 25.01X PE 36.83X 20.88X PB 2.94X 2.44X PB 2.39X PB 4.41X 2.38X 39 PE Wind 40 PB Wind 10 2024 6 7 31.18 28.42%7.15%11.17%7284.24-15.3-21.3 4478.34-32.8-49.2 6788.27-3.9-5.2 9753.37-10.2-9.0 6328.03-24.6-29.5 5722.70-5.7-14.0 6507.16-12.1-18.8 33 IVD&41 2013 PE Wind 5.2 CXO 30%IVD&1 CRO ACD CDMO CDMO IVD 2 IVD 2013 34 IVD&6 1 2 3 4 湘财证券投 资评级 体系（市场比较 基准为 沪 深 300 指数）6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%重要声明 分析师声明