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电 改 深化，电力 资 产价 值 重估 2024 相关研究：消纳政策继续加 码，配套电 网建设将提速 2024.06.12 电力市场运行基 本规则印 发，全国统一电力市场建设加 速推进 2024.05.22 行业 评级：增持%1 3 12 6 8 17 1 5 6 300 S0500524010002 Tel(8621)50293587 Email 地址：上海市浦东新区 银城 路88号中国人寿 金融中 心10楼 2024 6%1.2 2024 2024 GDP 5%2024 6%2030 40%20%2030-2045 2045-2060 2060 2024Q1 15.3%22.0%54.8%2024Q1 11%17.5%2030 2023 56679.4 2016 17%61.4%47.3%+2022 2024 5 1+N 1 2024 1-4 96.1%96.3%0.5pct 1.7pct 证 券研 究报告 2024 年 6 月 21 日 湘 财证 券研究 所 行业 研究 电力 行业 中期 策略 20%IRR7.99%0%5%/10%IRR 1.33/2.58pct 30%-35%20%15%-20%2024 6 2023H1 278 91.4%5%0.018 2023 22.3+56.2%4.95 2022 0.5 2024 0.01-0.02/0.03-0.04/2024/6/19 2023 50%30%-40%2024 4-5 4 7.5%5.3pct 21.2pct 5 38.6%17.6pct 71.5pct 2024 6 16 6.9%57.72%2024 6%2025 39%2030 1 正文目录 1 2024 6%.4 1.1 GDP.4 1.2 2024 6%.5 2.7 2.1.7 2.2.12 3.16 3.1.16 3.2.21 4.30 4.1.30 4.2.32 4.3.39 5.40 5.1.40 5.2.43 6.48 7.50 8.50 图表目录 1 GDP.5 2.6 3.6 4.6 5.6 6.7 7.7 8.8 9.9 10.10 11.10 12.10 13.10 14.10 15.11 16.11 17.11 2 18.13 19.13 20.13 21.13 22.13 23.14 24.14 25 2023.15 26.15 27.15 28.15 29.15 30.16 31.16 32 1997-2001.17 33 2002-2014.18 34 2015-2021.19 35.21 36.21 37.21 38.22 39.22 40/.22 41.29 42.29 43.30 44.30 45.31 46.32 47.32 48.32 49.33 50.33 51.33 52.33 53.33 54.33 55.34 56.34 57.34 58.35 59.35 60.35 61.35 3 62.36 63.40 64.43 65 2023/.43 66.44 67.45 68()().46 69.46 70 2024 3(/).47 71.48 1.7 2 2015-2021.19 3.20 4 2015 2020.23 5.25 6.30 7 30%.36 8 25%.37 9 20%.37 10 20%.38 11 20%.38 12 2024/6/19.39 13.40 14.41 15.42 16.42 17.43 18.44 19(/)(20242025).45 20 2024/6/19.47 21 2024/6/19.48 4 1 2024 6%1.1 GDP 80%65%GDP GDP 1 2003-2010 1 1991 1992 2000 2003-2007 1 2008 2009 1 2 2011-2015 1 2011-2015 11.97%5.60%7.49%3.77%0.52%1 2015-9.3%-6.7%0.07 3 2016 1 5 1 GDP Wind 1.2 2024 6%2023 2023 9.22 6.7%3.1pct 2023Q1-Q4 3.6%6.4%6.6%10.0%1278 11.5%6.07 6.5%11.3%1.67 12.2%14%-18%78.1%1.35 0.9%2024Q1 2.34 9.8%2 1-2 11%288 9.7%15056 8%14.5%4235 14.3%6 15%70.1%33.4%3794 12%2 2 24%1.2 2024 2024 GDP 5%2024 6%2 3 Wind Wind 4 5 Wind Wind 7 6 7 Wind Wind 2 2.1 2021 3 1 8 8 2030 2045 2060 1 2030 CCUS 2030 40%20%25%2030 1.2+2 2030 2045 CCUS 9 10 3 2045 2060 9 2024Q1 29.94 14.5%14.1%46.7%1.9%15.3%22.0%54.8%4.23 1.9%13.97 4.2%5691 0.3%4.57 21.5%6.6 55%2024Q1 6124 88.2%10 10 Wind 11 12 Wind Wind 13 14 Wind Wind 11 15 16 Wind Wind 2023 2024 6 17()5.34/0.02%51.25%(SPI)16.03 45.57%2021 4000/KW 1000/KW 7000/KW 3000/KW 2023 1509/2022 14.7%17 Wind Solarzoom 12 2.2 60%2023 8.91 5.16%13.8%35.0%1.14 5.58%62318 6.09%4333 3.71%8090 12.26%2940 17.17%2024Q1 2.24 6.7%2102 2.2%1.6 6.6%1039 0.6%2419 11%783 17.5%2025 39%2030 2030 2030 2045 13 18 Wind 19 20 Wind Wind 21 22 Wind Wind 14 23 24 Wind Wind 2023 6000 3592 3133 4466 7670 2225 1286 5264 4880 4252 4723 2023 4466 76 2015 15 25 2023 Wind 26 27 Wind Wind 28 29 Wind Wind 16 30 31 Wind Wind 3 3.1 1 1996,1980 1985 17 2 1997-2001 1987 1998 2001 2001 32 1997-2001 3 2002-2014 2002 5 2003 2007 2+5+4 2 5 18 4 2011 9 4 5+3 33 2002-2014 4 2015-2021 5 2015 9 9 19 2 2015-2021 9 2016/2017 8 2019+2020 2021 10%/15%20%/20%2021 2021 34 2015-2021 20 9 3 2024 80%90%80%90%2023 9 2024 2 21 3.2 2006 2007-2008 2014-2015 2019 27.7%15.1%18.3%13.6%18.6%11.1%28.6%4.3%35 Wind 36 37 Wind Wind 22 38 39 Wind Wind 2002 2020+2021 10 40/Wind(Q5500)23 4 2015 2020 2015-04-13 2 1.8 2016 4 20 2015 4 20 2015-12-30 3 3 1.9 2016 1 1 2018-04-19 10%24 75%70%2018 4 1 2018/5/18 10%17%16%2018 5 1 2018/8/31 10%25%2018 7 1 2019/3/29 10%16%13%2019 4 1 2019/5/15 10%50%0.5 1 1 25 13%2015 2022 2025 2030 2023 11 2024 2 5 1+N 1 5 2022-01-18 2025/2030/2023-07-25 1 1000 26 2023-09-15/2023-11-01/2023 2024 6 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 6 2023 27 2023-11-10 330 2024-2025 330/KW 30%/50%2026 50%2024-02-02 2024-02-08 2024-03-01 2025 2030 28 4 2024-05-06 1 N 2024-05-14 1+N 1 2024-06-04 500 29 90%+2023 56679.4 7.9%2016 17%61.4%6845 47.3%41 42 30 4 4.1 2023 7 13.4 2013 2023 11 6436 2024 2024 14.5 2023 1 43 44 Wind Wind 6 2023M1-11 2022A 2021 A 2020A 2019 A 2018 A 2017 A 2016 A 2015 A 2014 A 2013 A 133914 128964 119162 107700 105321 99379 92599 85898 79773 79512 77536 37420 36490 33886 31899 29791 28119 27523 25396 23028 22074 21503 30916 29687 24929 24332 24344 23123 21846 20799 19267 19207 18620 23406 22278 21619 19978 18671 16853 16297 14743 14164 13614 12891 19536 19424 16856 15472 15556 15065 13713 12236 15469 15053 14915 12537 12003 10515 10013 9185 8519 8148 7653 7343 7061 6801 7266 7022 7058 6791 6483 6301 5902 5635 5439 5240 5352 133860 128890 119095 107629 105265 99446 92877 86172 79984 79729 77636 30984 31154 28507 27230 25746 24254 23835 22327 20883 19734 19491 30337 29045 24178 23810 23316 22416 21354 20231 18636 18495 17957 31 23119 21917 21141 19542 18319 16837 15975 16788 13777 13306 12585 18284 17715 16462 15640 15614 15310 14124 13117 17593 18069 17309 17739 17073 14279 13437 11642 10715 9622 9085 8097 7780 7773 8067 7962 7857 7341 7108 6881 6251 5905 5582 5500 5513-54-74-67-71-56 67 278 274 211 217 100-6436-5336-5379-4669-4045-3865-3688-3069-2145-2340-2012-579-642-751-522-1028-707-492-568-631-712-663-287-361-478-436-352-16-322 2045-387-308-306-1252-1709-394 168 58 245 411 881 2124 3016 2394 5202 5070 3764 3424 2457 2196 1474 1432 754 719 972 801 940 799 550 625 580 349 270 143 260 161 Wind 2023 6 2030 40%20%2030 2045 2045 2060 1 2023 101.7%148.1%45 32 46 47 Wind Wind 4.2 2024 2024 1-4 96.1%0.5pct 95%95.9%0.4pct 94.6%2pct 98.2%1.1pct 99.9%0.1pct 93.7%3.7pct 99.5%0.4pct 95%3pct 48 33 49 50 51 52 53 54 34 2024 1-4 96.3%1.7pct 96.8%1.2pct 93.8%3pct 97.9%1.6pct 99.9%0.1pct 95.8%2.2pct 98.9%0.9pct 6.7pct 3pct 3.3pct 91.1%91.5%95.3%3pct 4.3pct 55 56 57 35 58 59 60 61 1200 0.35/3.4/W 30%/25%/20%7.20%/7.56%/7.99%0%5%30%/25%/20%1.07/1.18/1.33pct 0%10%30%/25%/20%2.12/2.32/2.58pct 30%35%36 62 7 30%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%()1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200()1200 1140 1080 1020 960 900 840 780 720 660 600()68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000()20400 20400 20400 20400 20400 20400 20400 20400 20400 20400 20400()47600 47600 47600 47600 47600 47600 47600 47600 47600 47600 47600()24000 22800 21600 20400 19200 18000 16800 15600 14400 13200 12000()23520 22344 21168 19992 18816 17640 16464 15288 14112 12936 11760()7285 6921 6556 6192 5828 5464 5099 4735 4371 4007 3642()47 44 42 40 37 35 33 30 28 26 23()820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820()2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 IRR 7.20%6.13%5.08%4.05%3.04%2.04%1.00%-0.12%-1.26%-2.49%-3.81%IRR(pct)0.00-1.07-2.12-3.15-4.16-5.17-6.21-7.32-8.46-9.69-11.01 37 8 25%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%()1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200()1200 1140 1080 1020 960 900 840 780 720 660 600()68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000()17000 17000 17000 17000 17000 17000 17000 17000 17000 17000 17000()51000 51000 51000 51000 51000 51000 51000 51000 51000 51000 51000()24000 22800 21600 20400 19200 18000 16800 15600 14400 13200 12000()23520 22344 21168 19992 18816 17640 16464 15288 14112 12936 11760()7285 6921 6556 6192 5828 5464 5099 4735 4371 4007 3642()47 44 42 40 37 35 33 30 28 26 23()820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820()2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 IRR 7.56%6.37%5.23%4.13%3.05%1.98%0.87%-0.30%-1.47%-2.73%-4.07%IRR(pct)0.00-1.18-2.32-3.43-4.51-5.57-6.69-7.85-9.03-10.28-11.63 9 20%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%()1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200()1200 1140 1080 1020 960 900 840 780 720 660 600()68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000 68000()13600 13600 13600 13600 13600 13600 13600 13600 13600 13600 13600()54400 54400 54400 54400 54400 54400 54400 54400 54400 54400 54400()24000 22800 21600 20400 19200 18000 16800 15600 14400 13200 12000()23520 22344 21168 19992 18816 17640 16464 15288 14112 12936 11760()7285 6921 6556 6192 5828 5464 5099 4735 4371 4007 3642()47 44 42 40 37 35 33 30 28 26 23()820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820 820()2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 2584 IRR 7.99%6.67%5.41%4.21%3.06%1.91%0.72%-0.49%-1.69%-2.97%-4.33%IRR(pct)0.00-1.33-2.58-3.78-4.94-6.08-7.27-8.48-9.69-10.96-12.33 38 20%7.99%5%10%25%30%15%20%25%20%15%20%25%10%15%10 20%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0.35/7.99%6.67%5.41%4.21%3.06%1.91%0.72%-0.49%-1.69%-2.97%-4.33%5%6.67%5.47%4.33%3.23%2.15%1.03%-0.13%-1.26%-2.45%-3.71%-5.03%10%5.41%4.33%3.28%2.26%1.21%0.11%-0.96%-2.07%-3.24%-4.47%-5.73%15%4.21%3.23%2.26%1.27%0.23%-0.79%-1.82%-2.90%-4.06%-5.24%-6.44%20%3.06%2.15%1.21%0.23%-0.73%-1.69%-2.71%-3.78%-4.89%-6.01%-7.17%25%1.91%1.03%0.11%-0.79%-1.69%-2.64%-3.65%-4.68%-5.73%-6.81%-7.92%11 20%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0.35/3.4/W 7.99%6.67%5.41%4.21%3.06%1.91%0.72%-0.49%-1.69%-2.97%-4.33%5%7.81%6.50%5.25%4.05%2.90%1.75%0.56%-0.65%-1.87%-3.16%-4.53%10%7.61%6.31%5.06%3.88%2.73%1.57%0.37%-0.84%-2.06%-3.37%-4.75%15%7.39%6.10%4.86%3.68%2.54%1.37%0.16%-1.04%-2.28%-3.61%-5.00%20%7.15%5.86%4.64%3.46%2.32%1.14%-0.07%-1.28%-2.54%-3.89%-5.28%25%6.87%5.60%4.38%3.21%2.07%0.88%-0.34%-1.55%-2.83%-4.20%-5.61%39 4.3 2024 6 1 500 2 3 4 90%12 2024/6/19 2()2023A 2022A 2021 A 2023A 2022A 2021 A 2023A 2022A 2021 A 1,485.5 1.25%29.76%376.4 398.6 372.1 62.5 51.1 64.0 18.6 9.8 12.3 1,267.9 1.76%31.09%264.9 238.1 154.8 71.8 71.6 56.4 22.3 21.8 16.9 365.9 2.46%40.77%202.8 185.6 159.9 22.1 22.9 21.6 9.0 8.1 7.0 223.8 1.66%40.45%36.9 34.3 162.4 9.2 6.3-13.6 3.7 1.9 1.9 196.8 2.76%35.99%51.2 52.4 35.4 15.1 16.3 7.7 5.4 5.9 2.8 191.3 2.98%36.15%95.4 92.4 70.2 15.8 13.9 11.8 5.7 9.3 0.0 181.1 0.93%26.84%45.2 46.0 29.1 6.3 7.8 4.5 1.7 1.7 0.9 Wind 40 5 5.1 63 13 2-3 41/2023 278 254 91.4%14(FP%min-1)/(kW-1)-100 60%90%20003000 10006000/-30 75%85%50100 35005000-100 25%85%1000 20000-50000-100 95%510 1000020000 42 100%30 95%50150-50%80%25 80%20 3090 100%15 60%20 30004000 50%70%5-75%-/20%3 95%-20004000 15 5 3 3 3 4 5 4 4 5 2 4 3 3 2 4 1 5 1 5 3 5 4 4 3 2 4 3 3 5 5 5 4 2 4 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 5 5 5 2 3 5 1 16 100 50 100 0%100%0%43 5.2 2023 70%68.1%68.8%68.6%64 65 2023/Wind 5%0.018 5%0.018 17-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%(/230.2 244.5 258.9 273.3 287.7 302.1 316.5 330.8 345.2(1046 1112 1177 1243 1308 1373 1439 1504 1570(/0.288 0.306 0.323 0.341 0.359 0.377 0.395 0.413 0.431(/-0.072-0.054-0.036-0.018 0.000 0.018 0.036 0.054 0.072 Wind 2022 44 2021 12 2023 11 2024 3 66 18 h 330 2024 2025 30%50%2026 50%10%50%100%45 19(/)(20242025)100 100 100 100 100 100 165 100 100 100 165 165 100 100 165 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 165 100 100 165 100 100 100 100 165 100 2026 70%50%67 46 2023 278 2019 114%2019 0.43pct 1.9%254 91.4%2023 2023 56.2%22.3 4.95 2022 0.5 68()()69 Wind 2024 0.03-0.04/0.01/0.01-0.02/47 70 2024 3(/)20 2024/6/19 2()2023A 2022A 2021 A 2023A 2022A 2021 A 2023A 2022A 2021 A 1,419.1 2.21%37.17%2,544.0 2,467.2 2,046.1 84.5-73.9-102.6 31.4 0.0 0.0 1,027.3 2.08%38.16%1,810.0 1,926.8 1,681.9 56.1 28.2-18.5 21.4 17.8 0.0 915.8 3.66%51.42%959.8 801.9 710.7 65.2-18.3-8.6 33.5 0.0 0.0 678.1 2.26%33.93%1,171.8 1,070.6 1,044.2 45.2 1.0-49.7 15.3 20.5 24.7 551.5 0.25%10.17%1,224.0 1,168.3 1,034.1 13.7-4.1-92.6 1.4 5.4 0.0 444.8 3.04%52.82%194.5 202.9 154.8 25.6 24.7 4.0 13.5 13.1 0.0 429.2 4.56%56.60%291.4 281.9 253.1 34.6 10.8 16.4 19.6 7.9 9.8 340.6 1.96%32.55%405.0 375.2 315.7 20.5 22.0 21.3 6.7 6.7 8.3 297.6 4.06%60.23%225.3 230.7 189.3 20.0 17.7 4.5 12.1 10.7 6.5 289.4 1.31%20.20%345.7 324.4 288.8 18.7 0.7-3.4 3.8 3.8 0.0 280.3 2.01%35.37%424.0 391.6 306.3 15.9 3.2-18.9 5.6 1.0 0.0 A 278.8 0.38%10.77%597.1 526.6 441.7 9.7-30.0-31.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 227.9 3.85%53.53%468.0 479.1 379.6 16.4 13.5 2.0 8.8 7.0 3.5 213.6 3.29%80.04%328.8 304.9 222.4 8.8 8.0-31.1 7.0 8.0 0.0 191.3 2.62%35.05%278.7 242.8 210.3 14.3 4.3-13.4 5.0 1.1 0.0 125.9 0.85%30.72%144.6 146.6 121.6 3.5 1.2-0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 111.6 1.30%86.67%189.5 183.1 150.4 1.7 1.0-22.1 1.4 0.5 0.0 109.2 5.98%73.47%102.7 94.2 94.1 8.9 1.8 8.2 6.5 0.7 1.1 97.7 1.51%30.09%70.9 41.4 27.0 4.9 0.1-2.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 Wind 48 6 2024/6/19 2023 50%30%-40%71 Wind 21 2024/6/19 2()2023A 2022A 2021 A 2023A 2022A 2021 A 2023A 2022A 2021 A 6,860.9 2.92%73.66%781.1 520.6 556.5 272.4 213.1 262.7 200.6 200.9 185.4 1,888.2 1.72%42.42%234.6 211.4 202.0 76.4 68.0 58.4 32.4 31.5 30.6 1,303.0 2.83%55.01%567.1 504.9 436.8 67.0 40.8 24.4 36.9 20.5 12.2 874.0 2.23%44.31%14.8 14.2 12.6 44.0 35.2 30.9 19.5 17.8 17.6 567.5 2.78%128.59%80.9 106.2 84.1 12.3 32.1 13.5 15.8 15.8 11.8 104.0 1.69%33.79%26.4 20.5 20.1 5.2 3.0 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.5 Wind 49 2024 4 5 2024 4 2937 7.5%5.3pct 21.2pct 5 1150 38.6%17.6pct 71.5pct 2024 6 16 14600/6.9%57.72%10900/29.48%0.16%146.74 0.59%2.18%1 2 Wind Wind 3/4 Wind Wind 50 7 2024 6%2025 39%2030 8 湘财证券投资评级体 系（市场比较基准为沪深 300 指数）6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%重要声明 分析师声明
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