20221121_东方证券_房地产行业2023年度投资策略：降幅收窄缓慢修复_46页.pdf

|2022 2014-2015 2023 2023 2023-6.9%-8.4%-7.3%-8.1%(600048)A(000002)(600383)(01109)(001979)(00123)(600325)(01908)(06049)(001914)(02602)(02869)(01209)/2022 11 21 S0860521070001 S0860520020003 BQJ931 10 2022-11-17 2022 45 2022-11-15 10 2022 44 2022-11-08 2023 2 1.6 2022.6“”.8 8 9.12 2023 16.18 19 21 22 23.25 25 26.27 27 28 30.33 23.35.36 2.37.37.38.39.40.41 3.42 3 1 10-23.2%1-10-23.0%.6 2 10-35.1%1-10-37.8%.6 3.6 4 2022.6 5.8 6.9 7.9 8.9 9 9-10 PSL 2625.10 10 8.13 11 2013.15 12.16 13.16 14 70/%.18 15 70/.18 16 70/%.18 17 70/.18 18.19 19.19 20.19 21.19 22.20 23.20 24.20 25.20 26.20 27 194.21 28 194.21 29.21 30.21 31 70(%).22 32 11.22 33 20.22 34.22 4 35 10.24 36 2021.25 37 2020.25 38 2021+.25 39 2022.26 40 2022.26 41.26 42 2019.27 43 2021 22.27 44 2021 22.27 45 2021 22.27 46 2022 22.28 47 2022 22.28 48 2022 22.28 49 2022.29 50 2021.30 51 2022.30 52.31 53 TOP100.31 54.32 55 2022 1-10 4.4 25.9%.32 56 1-10.33 57.33 58.34 59.35 60.35 61.35 62.35 63 2021.37 64 32 2017-2022H1.37 65 32 2017-2022H1.37 66 32.38 67 32 2018-2022H1.38 68 32 2018-2022H1.38 69 32 2017-2022H1.39 70.39 71.39 72 32.39 5 73 32.40 74 2022H1.40 75 2022H1.40 76().41 77().41 1 2022.7 2“”.10 3“”.11 4 2022.12 5.13 6 8.14 7 2014-2015.15 8 2022.16 9 2023.17 10 2022 1-10 TOP30.23 11 2022.9.15.29 6 1.2022 2022 6 7 7 8 1 2015 10 1 10-23.2%1-10-23.0%2 10-35.1%1-10-37.8%3 4 2022-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2018/1 2019/1 2020/1 2021/1 2022/1-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2018/1 2019/1 2020/1 2021/1 2022/1 4.10%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0510152025303540452016/3 2017/3 2018/3 2019/3 2020/3 2021/3 2022/3%,-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%1200%-2,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,0002018/1 2019/1 2020/1 2021/1 2022/1%7 Wind 2022 1-10+123 949 78 1274 35+1 2022 1 2022/6/20 18 01 18 03 19 01 19 01 2021 12 2 2022/10/31 20 MTN001 1 2022/1/20 4.2%N20220120 2 2022/1/23 8.5%N20220123 3 2022/2/15 7.5%N20240415 4 2022/2/18 12%N20230818 5 2022/3/6 8.35%N20240310 6 2022/5/12 7.95%N20231011 7 2022/6/19 8.5%N20220519 8 2022/7/3 4.75%N20220703 9 2022/7/10 8.10%N20230609 10 2022/7/25 4%N20220725 1 2022/3/21 H9 01 8 7 2 2022/4/7 16 04 3 2022/10/8 6.95%CB20250408 10 11 1 4 2022/10/31-9 5%95%Wind 8 5 2022.10.31 1=7.177 1=0.914 Wind 2022 1 2 18 2022 22Q3 12.67 10 31 1.72 0.47 2.19 10 31 1887 1.35 22 1.42 18 12-20 11.67 2-3 1 050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 20212022 1-10()9 6 7/Q3 10 Q2 Wind=+8 8 19 2000 16 10 9 9-10 PSL 2625 2 7.28 8.19 9.22 9.29 10.26 11.11 1082 1543 0200400600800100012001400160018002017/12017/32017/52017/72017/92017/112018/12018/32018/52018/72018/92018/112019/12019/32019/52019/72019/92019/112020/12020/32020/52020/72020/92020/112021/12021/32021/52021/72021/92021/112022/12022/32022/52022/72022/9 PSL 11+3 7 8 4+1 9 30 10 145 2 143 70 125 21.86 2.4 1.2 92.4 10 314.1 262 151.5 12 7 5 8 19 2000 8 22 5 LPR 35bp 9 29-30+11 4 2022 2021.12.10 2022.01.20 1 LPR 10bp 3.70%5 LPR 5bp 4.60%2022.02.24 2022.03.05 2022.03.12 2022.03.14 2022.03.16 2022.04.18 2022.04.24 2022.04.29 2022.05.04 2022.05.12 2022.05.15 LPR 20BP 2022.05.20 1 LPR 3.70%5 LPR 15bp 4.45%2022.07.28 2022.08.19 2022.08.22 1 LPR 5bp 3.65%5 LPR 15bp 4.30%2022.09.23 2022.09.29 6-8 2022 2022.09.30 22.10.1 23.12.31 1 2022.09.30 2022 10 1 15bp 2022.10.16 2022.11.11 2022.11.12 30%13 8 Q3 11 10 8 5 2 3-4 LPR-3560bp()/1 5 2 14 15bp 30%22 6 8 8.4 60 35%8.9 20%30%8.8 8.10 30%8.11 200/8.12 1 30%1 50-60%8.15 20%8.16 40%30%8.17 8.17 8.19 1 8.19 8.20/1 1 7 8.24 9 1 8.25 8.26 6/3 8.27 1+1 3 2 1+4 9.1 9.9 9.15 9.15 9.16 6 1 60/5 30%40%/LPR-20bp/LPR+60bp 9.16 9.19 40%9.20 9.21 9.21 9.22.30%1/9.27 40%15 10.12 6 4 10 1 10.9-10.25 3.9%LPR-40bp 3.8%LPR-50bp 3.95%LPR-35bp 30%11.7 5 11.11 4.1%4.9%40%11.17 11 18 2014-2015 5 LPR 35bp 2014-15 165bp 10 4.12%9.5 2014 9 30 8.5-9 7 2014-2015 Wind 11 2013 Wind 1 2014 10-2015 10 2022 15 165bp 5 LPR 35bp 7 8.5-9 LPR-20 bp(9.5)8.5 9 3.003.504.004.505.005.506.006.507.007.502013-3 2014-3 2015-3 2016-3 2017-3 2018-3 2019-3 2020-3 2021-3 2022-3(%)-5Y LPR-5Y-35bp-165bp 16 2023 9 4.34%4.00%12 13 6 8-10 68 11 1 21 11 8 2500 5 11 11 8 2022 5.16 22 03 5 3+3 4.0%22 1A 4.02 1 3.5%5.16 22 01 10 2+2 4.5%CDS 5.16 22 01 5 1+1+1 4.5%CDS 5.24 22 MTN001 10 2+1 6.5%CRMW 6.24 22 01 5 2+2 5.5%4.12%4.91%3.50%4.00%4.50%5.00%5.50%6.00%6.50%LPR 742601020304050607080 17 8.25 22 MTN001 15 3 3.3%8.31 22 MTN002 10 2+2 4.8%CRMW()9.5 22 MTN003 10 3 3.33%9.9 22 MTN002 10 3 3.28%9.15 22 MTN001 15 3 3.2%9.22 22 MTN002 12 3 3.22%10.13 22 MTN001 6 3 3.5%2023 9 2023 AMC A 18 2021 2022 1-10-22.3%1-2 10 4 7-8 1 2015 6 9/10 3 70 2022 4 6 10 2.4%2021 9 14 2022 1 6 70 9 15 7 14 70/%15 70/16 70/%17 70/-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5-9.0-6.0-3.00.03.06.09.012.015.02011/12011/72012/12012/72013/12013/72014/12014/72015/12015/72016/12016/72017/12017/72018/12018/72019/12019/72020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/7 0102030405060702011-12011-92012-52013-12013-92014-52015-12015-92016-52017-12017-92018-52019-12019-92020-52021-12021-92022-5-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5-9.0-6.0-3.00.03.06.09.012.015.02011/12011/82012/32012/102013/52013/122014/72015/22015/92016/42016/112017/62018/12018/82019/32019/102020/52020/122021/72022/22022/9 0102030405060702011-12011-92012-52013-12013-92014-52015-12015-92016-52017-12017-92018-52019-12019-92020-52021-12021-92022-5 19 6 库 存 有 抬 升 趋 势，去 化 周 期 拉 长。20 3-4 6 18 19 20 21-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%010002000300040005000600070001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2021 2020 2019 22 21 010000200003000040000500006000001002003004005006002017/32017/62017/92017/122018/32018/62018/92018/122019/32019/62019/92019/122020/32020/62020/92020/122021/32021/62021/92021/122022/32022/62022/9/02000400060008000100001200014000160001800005001000150020002500300035002017/32017/62017/92017/122018/32018/62018/92018/122019/32019/62019/92019/122020/32020/62020/92020/122021/32021/62021/92021/122022/32022/62022/9/02000400060008000100001200014000160000500100015002000250030002017/32017/62017/92017/122018/32018/62018/92018/122019/32019/62019/92019/122020/32020/62020/92020/122021/32021/62021/92021/122022/32022/62022/9/20 22=/12 23 24 25 26 0.05.010.015.020.025.00100002000030000400005000060000700002021/1 2021/7 2022/1 2022/7 050001000015000200002500030000350000501001502002503003502017/32017/62017/92017/122018/32018/62018/92018/122019/32019/62019/92019/122020/32020/62020/92020/122021/32021/62021/92021/122022/32022/62022/9/05000100001500020000250003000005001000150020002017/32017/62017/92017/122018/32018/62018/92018/122019/32019/62019/92019/122020/32020/62020/92020/122021/32021/62021/92021/122022/32022/62022/9/0500010000150002000025000300000200400600800100012002017/32017/62017/92017/122018/32018/62018/92018/122019/32019/62019/92019/122020/32020/62020/92020/122021/32021/62021/92021/122022/32022/62022/9/020004000600080001000012000140001600005001000150020002500300035002017/32017/62017/92017/122018/32018/62018/92018/122019/32019/62019/92019/122020/32020/62020/92020/122021/32021/62021/92021/122022/32022/62022/9/21 194 14.0%55.7%2021 0.9 2.0 25.2%2021 3.2 140 15.5%2021 2.3 90 140 27 194 28 194 29 30 2%2%2%15%15%14%57%58%56%21%22%25%4%3%3%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021 2022H1 18%19%18%29%30%29%40%38%38%11%11%12%2%3%4%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021 2022H190 90-110 110-140 140-180 180 0%20%40%60%80%100%202020212022H1202020212022H1202020212022H1 0%20%40%60%80%100%202020212022H1202020212022H1202020212022H1 90 90-110 110-140 140-180 180 22 11 9 20 7 6 9 7 7 70 31 70(%)32 11 33 20 34-1.50-1.00-0.500.000.501.001.502.002011/12012/12013/12014/12015/12016/12017/12018/12019/12020/12021/12022/1-101230500001000001500002000002018/9 2019/9 2020/9 2021/9 2022/9 11 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0100020003000400050002018/12018/42018/72018/102019/12019/42019/72019/102020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/7()()0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2018/12018/42018/72018/102019/12019/42019/72019/102020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/7 23 1-5 6 6-7 10 2021Q2-2022Q1 2022Q2 10 2022 1-10 TOP30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 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35 10 21Q3-22Q2 22Q3 2022Q4 2021Q4-2022Q3 2022 10 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 2020 2021 2022.1-10 25 2021 2022 1-10 4687 1214 834 6735 49%+2022 1-10+6735 13979=-7244 2223 36 2021 37 2020 2022.10.31 1=7.177 1=0.914 Wind Wind 38 2021+2022.10.31 1=7.177 1=0.914 Wind 050010001500200025002020/012020/032020/052020/072020/092020/112021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/09()()()-18%-49%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%05000100001500020000250002020 2021 2022()1-10()(%)(3000)(2000)(1000)01000200030002020/01 2020/05 2020/09 2021/01 2021/05 2021/09 2022/01 2022/05 2022/09 2023/01 2023/05 2023/09+(+()+()26 1-10+4211 71.3%1691 28.7%1-10+957-4198 5 2023 0.77 2022 1.02 2022 Q1-Q4 2759/2351/3097/1968 2023 Q1-Q4 2517/1925/1954/1354 2023Q1 2023Q1 72.0%39 2022=-+/2022.10.31 1=7.177 1=0.914 Wind 40 2022 41 2022.10.31 1=7.177 1=0.914 Wind 2022.10.31 1=7.177 1=0.914 Wind(800)(600)(400)(200)02004002022/01 2022/02 2022/03 2022/04 2022/05 2022/06 2022/07 2022/08 2022/09 2022/10 0%20%40%60%80%100%0%20%40%60%80%100%27 2021 2022 46.3%7-9-33.4%/-41.0%/-55.4%22 42 2019 43 2021 22 2022 10 44 2021 22 45 2021 22-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0002019/012019/052019/092020/012020/052020/092021/012021/052021/092022/012022/052022/09()14.8%4.0%2.6%4.7%4.2%2.4%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%020004000600080001000012000()()12,114 13,647 8,274 4,713 4,699 4,999 9301104728469 468 4810200400600800100012000200040006000800010000120001400016000()()/5.6%40.8%22.0%15.0%7.9%8.9%0%10%20%30%40%50%020040060080010001200/28/46 2022 22 47 2022 22 48 2022 22 0%20%40%60%80%100%0%20%40%60%80%100%/0%20%40%60%80%100%0%20%40%60%80%100%/0%20%40%60%80%100%0%20%40%60%80%100%/29 11 2022.9.15()20.9 12.0%()10.9 12.0%()29.6 12.0%()26.3 12.0%()70 10.1%()10.4 10.1%()21.8 12.0%()13.2 12.0%()7.4 6.50%7.7 0.70%8.5 0.00%23.6 0.00%17.1 0.00%61.7 0.00%14.5 0.00%+59.3 0.00%6.9 0.00%8.6 0.00%12.2 0.00%+2022 49 2022 0500010000150002000025000300003500040000 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022/30 2022 1 2 3 50 2021 51 2022 10 31 36%47%25%47%45%36%57%30%33%20%16%17%7%23%42%33%39%47%0%20%40%60%80%100%2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%31 52 2021 100 2022/44.1%/38.7%/27.4%TOP10 16.5%/19.5%/12.8%53 TOP100 TOP100 2021 2022 1-10 4.4 25.9%6139 6583 8796 10007 10128 11904 9577 8931 9407 12729 12793 13351 02000400060008000100001200014000160002021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022/13%4%7%11%3%7%56%2022TOP10 TOP10 TOP11-20TOP21-30TOP31-50TOP51-100100 18%1%2%6%8%4%61%2022 10%3%3%6%3%3%73%2022 32 2022 5 54 55 2022 1-10 4.4 25.9%Wind 6.51 7.25 8.41 8.71 5.00 4.40-60.0%-45.0%-30.0%-15.0%0.0%15.0%30.0%45.0%0.002.004.006.008.0010.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022()1-10()1-10 33 2022 1-10 TOP10 TOP10-20 TOP20-50 TOP50-100-37.1%-47.0%-52.3%-45.2%1-10 TOP10 15.6%56 1-10 57 6 4-5-37.1%-47.0%-52.3%-45.2%-26.1%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%TOP10 10-20 20-50 50-100 15%23%32%39%48%12%18%27%33%41%11%16%22%26%31%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%TOP5 TOP10 TOP20 TOP30 TOP502020 2021 2022 1-10 34 58 35 23 2022 21.1%24.8%37.6%9.1%预计 23 年 各指标 同比 仍维 持 负增 长，但同 比降幅 逐步收 窄。22Q1 23Q1 4 23 4 6 23 Q2 23 2023-6.9%-8.4%-7.3%-8.1%59 60 22 11 22 11 Wind Wind 61 62 22 11 Wind 22 11 Wind-15.0%-7.0%-21.1%-7.3%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2022/12022/22022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/82022/92022/102022/112022/122023/12023/22023/32023/42023/52023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/12-19.0%-8.0%-24.8%-8.1%-70%-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%2022/12022/22022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/82022/92022/102022/112022/122023/12023/22023/32023/42023/52023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/12-36.4%3.0%-37.6%-6.9%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%2022/12022/22022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/82022/92022/102022/112022/122023/12023/22023/32023/42023/52023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/12-5.0%-5.5%-9.1%-8.4%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2022/12022/22022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/82022/92022/102022/112022/122023/12023/22023/32023/42023/52023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/12 36(600048)A(000002)(600383)(01109)(001979)(00123)(600325)(01908)37 2.2021 7 2021 7 2021 9 2022 10 31 2021 79.0%-76.2%63 2021 Wind 32 2022H1 932 28.2%93.8 13.1%32 2021 1.6/1.0 22 64 32 2017-2022H1 65 32 2017-2022H1 Wind Wind-100.0%-80.0%-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%70.0%36.7%41.6%42.2%48.0%28.2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 YOY113.0%77.5%43.3%60.5%47.2%-13.1%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0501001502002502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 YOY 38 66 32 Wind 32 2022H1 54.3 38.8%74.1 33.4%2021 1 2 3 67 32 2018-2022H1 68 32 2018-2022H1 2022H1/39.3%/25.8%/16.2%/-2.9%2021 39.8%/39.0%/68.3%/36.7%9.1%9.8%10.8%12.1%13.9%13.2%12.2%25.9%25.9%27.2%28.0%29.3%28.7%27.1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 31.7%42.1%47.8%51.7%38.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01020304050602018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1()YOY51.6%43.3%46.0%43.4%33.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%010203040506070802018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1()YOY 39 69 32 2017-2022H1 70 32 5 2022 71 72 32 2022 98.5 2021 69.1 2022H1 74.0%28.4%38.7%49.3%39.8%39.3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%02004006008001,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 YOY-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%2019 2020 2021 2022H1 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%2019 2020 2021 2022H1 20%16%18%24%26%33%34%18%20%28%39%45%56%59%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2016 2017 2