20240121_广发证券_食品饮料行业股息率专题美日为鉴浅谈食饮龙头股息率走向_24页.pdf

识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1/24 Table_C ontacter 本报告联 系人：廖承帅 021-38003800 Table_Page 行业专题研究|食品饮料 2024 年 1 月 21 日 证券研究报告 Table_Title Table_Author SAC S0260523120002 SAC S0260514050004 SFC CE.no:BNC117 0755-23480370 Table_Summary 2008 2022 2.1%2023 wind 2022 2023/2024 3.2%/3.9%2024 1 17 TTM 2.6%A 2.2%8 2022 73.7%A 41.4%6/1 2022 2.8%2023 2023 11 2023 3.1%2 2000-2009/2010/3 2002 2013 4 2011 2022 98.6%5 2011 2018 100%1 2000-2010 10%/38.6%/2.1%2011-2022/57.4%/2.5%2000 2014 75-100%70%2 2000-2010/2011-2022 8.0%/3.1%/1990/2024 1 17 3%50-70%70%PE-TTM 15 PE-TTM 25-30 Table_Report:2024-01-11:2024-01-11:2024-01-08 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 2/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料 Table_impcom EPS()PE(x)EV/EBITDA(x)ROE(%)/2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 600519.SH CNY 1635.00 2024/01/01 2236.80 58.54 69.90 27.93 23.39 19.76 16.60 34.00 32.30 000858.SZ CNY 128.89 2023/12/24 175.86 7.90 8.79 16.32 14.66 12.07 10.80 22.80 21.90 000568.SZ CNY 157.80 2023/10/31 276.45 9.03 11.06 17.48 14.27 12.92 10.50 31.66 31.46 002304.SZ CNY 96.62 2023/10/30 159.96 6.95 7.89 13.90 12.25 10.51 9.25 18.08 17.02 000895.SZ CNY 27.12 2023/10/25 34.57 1.73 1.90 15.68 14.27 11.09 10.12 25.97 26.45 600887.SH CNY 26.87 2023/11/01 34.15 1.71 1.91 15.71 14.07 9.61 8.45 20.50 19.21 Wind 0YEVyRmRmPmNtNnOsPoRqR9PcM9PtRnNoMqMkPnNnMeRoMoN9PmMxPvPsOmMMYmRmM 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 3/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料.6.6/.9.15.15.18.21.22 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 4/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料 1.6 2.6 3 TTM 8.7 4 2022 6.7 5 TTM/.7 6/.7 7 A TTM 20%.8 8 A 20%.8 9 TTM%.8 10%.8 11/.9 12/.10 13.10 14 ROE.10 15/.12 16.12 17 ROE.12 18/.13 19/.14 20 1930-1990.15 21 1947-1960.15 22 2000/.16 23%.16 24%.16 25/.17 26/.17 27.18 28 2023 CR5 79.1%.18 29/.19 30%.19 31%.19 32/.20 33/.20 34 3%.21 35.21 36 PE-TTM.21 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 5/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料 1 2022.9 2 2023 11 3.12 4.13 5.18 6.22 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 6/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料 2023 3.2%2000-2005 0.8%1.8%2006-2007 2008 2%2020 2022 2022 2.1%2023 wind 2023/2024 3.2%/3.9%/2022 75.7%wind 2023/2024 3.4%/4.1%1 Wind=/=/2023E/2024E 2022 2024 1 17 wind 2 Wind 1000=/=/2023E 2022 2024 1 17 wind 0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%140.0%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 7/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料/TTM TTM 2.6%A 2.2%8 2022 73.7%A 41.4%6 A ROE 3 TTM 8 4 2022 6 Wind 31 TTM 1/2024 1 17 Wind 31 2022/2022/2023E/3.1%/2.8%2022/56.6%/53.6%70%5 TTM/6/Wind 1/2024 1 17 Wind 2022/2022 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 8/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料/2022 95.8%/2022/197.9%/118.6%/105.6%2024 1 17/TTM 8.2%/7.9%/7.4%/6.8%7 A TTM 20%8 A 20%Wind 1/2024 1 17 Wind 2022/2022 2022 388.1%9 TTM%10%Wind 1/2024 1 17 Wind 2022/2022 2022 360.9%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0 020406080100120140160180 A 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0 020406080100120140160180200 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 9/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料/1.2022 2000 2002 14.6%2012 50.0%2001 2013/2013 3.4%2015-2021 50-52%2022 2021/2022 PE 49/35 2023 2023 11 2022 2023 3.1%11/Wind 2022/2022 11 29 2023 11 21 2022 275.2 43.9%/2022 95.8%2.8%2023 240.0 1 2022/2023 11 21 2023 1801.3 240.0 Wind 2023 740.2 32.4%1 2 3 2022 11 29 2022 1720.6 275.2 2022 627.2 43.9%2022 11 29 2023 11 21 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0-50050100150200%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 10/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料 2.2023 2010/1 2000-2009/2 2010/2001 28.0%2010 58.2%2022 75.4%/2010 12/Wind 13 14 ROE Wind ROE 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0-50050100150200%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 CR50.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.020.0(%)ROE(%)识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 11/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料 2023 2023 12 15 3 2023 2023 2023 12 28 1 2 2 3 4 5 1 30%2 10%3 50%2023 120 2022 1.3 0.5 2 2023 80%40%20%3.2011 2000 3 2002 2013 2021 2002 27.6%2003 64.7%1.1%2.8%2013 51.3%70%1.8-3.4 2023 2022/wind 2023 PE 21/16 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 12/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料 15/Wind 16 17 ROE Wind ROE 3/2002 9 6 4896 16.85 8.25 600 2013 1 12 9 27221 18.51 50.39 2021 12 11 22 31795 37.89 120.47 5G+Wind 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0-50050100150200%50%55%60%65%70%0%10%20%30%40%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CR5 051015202530354020002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022(%)ROE(%)识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 13/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料 4.2011/1 2000-2011 20%/2 2011 2011 15.1%2022 98.6%2018/2020 18/Wind 4/2018/10/31 2018 76.25 29.70 49.15 60.4%2020/10/28 2020 112.30 22.17 62.56 35.4%Wind 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.0-50050100150200%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 14/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料 5.2018 100%2018 100%1 1990-1997 90 2 1998-2010 2000-2010 22.0%55.7%75.2%50.0%4.7%1.7%3 2011 2017 2011-2022 4.3%7.8%49.9%197.9%1.2%7.5%2021 2022 165.6%/197.9%19/Wind 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0-500501001502002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 15/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料 1980 1930-1938 GM Frankfurter 1997 1 1931 1936 Revenue Act of 1936 80%1939-1945/John A.Brittain 1964 2 1946-1947 1929 90%1929 3%1946-1960 1947 36%1960 62%1960-1980/1970-1975 1980 1980 20 1930-1990 21 1947-1960 JSTOR JSTOR 1 Frankfurter,G.M.,&Wood Jr,B.G.(1997).The evolution of corporate dividend policy.Journal of financial education,16-33.2 Brittain,J.A.(1964).The tax structure and corporate dividend policy.The American economic review,54(3),272-287.012345678910193019331936193919421945194819511954195719601963196619691972197519781981198419871990%01020304050607080901001947 1960 1920-1960 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 16/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料 2000 2000-2010 Top20 10.8%10.5%/38.6%/2.1%2011-2022 Top20 6.3%5.4%/57.4%/2.5%/22 2000/CapitalIQ Top20 23%24%Wind 2022 Wind 2022-30.0%-10.0%10.0%30.0%50.0%70.0%90.0%110.0%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%FMX ADM-A 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%FMX ADM 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 17/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料 1870s-1920s 1920 14 1930s-1990s 1990s 2000/2014 75-100%70%25/CapitalIQ 26/CapitalIQ 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 18/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料 27 28 2023 CR5 79.1%2023 1 2005 300 2 2023 3 1 ROE 5 2005 1 300 2 1 1 3 2023 1 1 ROE 2 3 4 2016 0204060801002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023CR5%34.8%24.2%17.0%1.8%1.3%20.9%Talking Rain Sunkist Growers 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 19/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料 2000/2000 CapitalIQ 2000-2010 8.0%2011-2022 3.1%2000-2010 32%2011-2022 37%2.5-3.5%60.0%/51.1%30-40%29/CapitalIQ Top20 30%31%Wind 2022 Wind 2022 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 20/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料/1970-1990 1990 2000/2000-2022 5.2%/2.8%2.1%/0.2%/32/CapitalIQ 33/CapitalIQ 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%(%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 21/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料 1 2024 1 17 3%6.5%4.0%3-4%3%2 2022 50-70%2022 98.6%95.8%50-70%70%3 2024 1 17 PE-TTM 27.8 PE-TTM 15 PE-TTM 25-30 34 3%35 wind 1/2024 1 17 wind 2022/2022 36 PE-TTM wind PE-TTM 2024 1 17 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%0%50%100%150%200%250%05101520253035 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 22/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料 2021 58.1 2023 26.9 wind 2023/2024 3.2%/3.9%6 2023E 2024E 2025E 2024 PE YoY YoY YoY YoY YoY YoY 1495.5 17.2%735.3 17.2%1758.9 17.6%878.1 19.4%2027.2 15.2%1020.0 16.2%20538.8 23.4 836.8 13.1%306.5 14.8%929.5 11.1%341.3 11.4%1041.4 12.0%386.4 13.2%5003.0 14.7 312.3 24.3%132.9 28.2%374.1 19.8%162.8 22.5%444.2 18.7%194.9 19.7%2322.8 14.3 342.9 13.9%104.8 11.8%384.5 12.1%118.9 13.4%428.2 11.4%134.9 13.4%1455.5 12.2 653.7 4.2%59.9 6.5%697.3 6.7%65.7 9.7%750.3 7.6%72.2 9.9%939.6 14.3 1282.2 4.1%108.7 15.3%1399.4 9.1%121.4 11.7%1520.9 8.7%137.1 13.0%1710.6 14.1 Wind PE 2024 1 19 1 2 3 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 23/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料 Table_ResearchTeam 8 2017 2022 2023 2019 2023 2023 2021 2023 2022 2023 2022 2022 Table_RatingIndustry 12 10%12-10%+10%12 10%Table_RatingCompany 12 15%12 5%-15%12-5%+5%12 5%Table_Address 26 47 6001 31 2 18 429 37 189 29 30 510627 518026 100045 200120-Table_LegalDisclaimer/4 Table_ImportantNotices 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 24/24 Table_PageText 行业专 题研 究|食品 饮料 1 2/5 Table_InterestDisclosure(1)12 Table_Copyright