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|2023 10 09/1 2 300 Value Market Research 2019 195.48 1300 2022 330 3C 5%-9%2 1 P5 P 5%-9%20 80 THK NSK IKO 20 90 HIWIN ABBA PMI SBC P3 P0P2%464 8.9 3639.7 4.4 2955.9 4.1%1m 6m 12m 6.3-3.1 4.1 8.0 4.7 7.8 1 2023-07-24 2 AI+2023-05-04 3 3 PMI 51.9%Q2 2023-04-01 4 3 2023-03-02 S1090522050002 S1090519030001 S1090523080001-100102030Oct/22 Jan/23 May/23 Sep/23(%)机械 沪深300 2 2 1 2 1 3 2 15 5+10 5 10 P2-P3 2 5 WUCXwPsPsRoPpRoNqNtMqRaQbP8OsQnNnPnOjMmNmMfQqRoO9PrQnQvPrMsQMYnQnQ 3.7 1.7 2.10 3.10.12 1 300.12 2.12 3.15.17 1.17 2.19 1.19 2 knowhow.21 3.24.25 1.26 2.29.36 1.36 2.37 3.38 4.40.41 1 XY.7 2.7 3.8 4.8 4 5.9 6.9 7 2019-2026E.12 8 2021-2025E.12 9 2025.13 10.13 11 5%.14 12 9%.14 13.14 14 86%.15 15.15 16 CR5 44%.16 17 CR3 76%.16 18.17 19.22 20.23 21.26 22.27 23.27 24.27 25 2021.27 26 Optimus.28 27.28 28 2022.29 29.29 30.30 31 EPS.30 32 R-EPS.31 33 R-EPS.31 34 2013-2019.32 35.33 36.33 5 37 EHB.33 38 E-ACT.34 39 iBooster.34 40.35 41 EPB.35 42 2022.36 43.36 44.36 45.37 46 2022.37 47.37 48.38 49.38 50.38 51 2022.39 52.39 53.39 54 60%.40 55.40 56.40 57 PEBand.41 58 PBBand.41 1.8 2.9 3.10 4.11 5.11 6.11 7.15 8.17 9.18 6 10.18 11.19 12.19 13.20 14.20 15.21 16.21 17.22 18.22 19.24 20.24 21.28 22.31 23 R-EPS.32 24 EHB.34 25 EMB.35 26 39 7 2 1 X 1 XY 2 1 1 2 3 6-12 3 10 40%90%8 1 40%90%80%90%-AMT 3 4 THK 1 3D S 9 5 6 2-/-/2-/;10 2 1 2 3 3 3(GB/T 17587-2017)P0 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P7 P10 P0 JIS C0-C10 JIS C1 P1 P5+11 T7 T10 4 NC X Z XY Z XY Z XY Z XY Z XY Z XY Z XY Z XY Z XY XY Z P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 T7 T10 5/P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 T7 T10()(H)(P)(SP)(UP)H P 6 H P SP UP NC ATC 12 XY THK 1 300 Value Market Research 2019 195.48 1300 2026 296.61 6.14%44%2026 47%2022 330 2025 462 2021-2025 CAGR 12%7 2019-2026E 8 2021-2025E Value Market Research 2 3C 2025 24%29033038042046214%15%11%10%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%01002003004005002021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E我国滚动功能部件市场空间（亿元）增速（%）13 9 2025 P5 P P5 P 10 5%9%8%25%=*1-25%*8%100 14 11 5%12 9%IPO IPO 13 2000h 20000h 15 14 86%15 JMTBA 3 1874 1940 20 80 THK NSK IKO 20 90 HIWIN ABBA AMT PMI SBC 7/22 1883 INA Rollvis GSA Ewellix 1995 1169 SKF 1907 1999 Gamfior 2001 Gamfior SpA 2002 The Twentieth Century Machine Co.658.53 Bosch Rexroth 1795 20 50 1965-1995 2001-2016 519.60 Thom-son 1936 1936 1945 1955 1982 Electrak 2023 Regal Rexnord-64%21%7%8%线性滑轨 滚珠丝杠 工业机器人 其他051015202530050100150200250300350400450Jan-14Jul-14Jan-15Jul-15Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23日本出口中国的机床订单额（百万日元）上银营收（亿新台币）16 THK 1971 1972 1977 1996 LM 2003 THK 206.13 NSK 1916 1958 1959 1979 XY 1987 2003 NSK 434.87 Hiwin 1989 1993 Holzer 21 2017 CG 2018 Super Z i4.0BS 66.95 PMI 1990 1991 2003 2008-TBI MOTION 1986 1988 2014 7.81 QYR NSK THK SKF Hiwin PMI TBI MOTION CR5 44%THK Hiwin NSK 76%16 CR5 44%17 CR3 76%QYR QYR JMAA 2004-2022 44%56%CR5 76%24%CR3 其他 17 18 JMAA 22 10 8/1969 1977 S7432 20 2007 2009 6 19 1952 1965 1987 2002 1993 1995 LG 20062010 LGS LGR 2021 1966 X-Y 1966 1971 1985 1997 1 1517192123252729313335滚珠丝杠销售单价（千 日元）18 9 300mm 2 10%106-10,P3 P0P2 19 11 m m m N/m THK LM 1 3 3/NSK RA 2 3 3/IKO 0.12/667 HIWIN HG 2 3 3 1599 TBI MOTION TR 1 3 3/LSQ/3 5 785 2 1 12 GCr15 Cr/Mo GCr15 GCr15 80%Cr Mo Mn GCr15SiMn Cr/Mo 20 13 GCr15 GCr15SiMn GCr4 GCr15SiMo GCr18Mo G20CrNiMo G20CrMo G20CrNi2Mo G20Cr2Ni4 G10CrNi3Mo G20Cr2Mn2Mo,.37CrA 65Mn 50CrVA 50CrNi 55SiMoVA 9Cr18 9Cr18Mo 8Cr4Mo4V 10Cr14Mo4 Cr4Mo4V W18Cr4V CrMo 50CrMo4 55CrMo4 42CrMo 14 20CrMoA 20CrMnMo GCr15 50CrMnMoH 42CrMoA GCr15SiMn 55 50Mn 60Mn 38CrMoAlA CrWMn 9Cr18 GCr15 CrWMn 9Cr18 20CrMoA 20CrMnMo 18CrMnTi12CrNiA 12C2Ni4A 0Cr17Ni4Cu4(17-4PH)40Cr PA66GF30-0Cr17Ni4Cu4(17-4PH)45 65Mn 0Cr17Ni4Cu4(17-4PH)PA66GF30-GCr15 21 15 9ppm 38ppm 2ppm SKF 0.6ppm 10 m,2 knowhow-20 30-45 P0 P7 1-3 16 1 GCr15 12 90 V 2 13 3 14 4 15 5 16 6 17 7 18 8 19 9 20 10-21 11 22-30-45 22 17 1 GCr15 4 2 5 3 6-1-3 CBN 6mm 1m P3 18 90 V CBN 90 V 1m 6mm CBN 19 23 know-how 20 24 3 HNC35K RG2000 MATRIX7000 GSE-A/GSN SMC US500-CNC P1 19 1928 100%THK MATRIX 1913 1934 2010 MATRIX 6950 MIKROMAT 1863 6 1923 NORMA GEMINI CORVUS SIRIUS 26KW 370 SMS 1995 Reishauer Klingelnberg CNC 2017 SH Heligrind 20 mm mm kg mm rpm rpm SK7450X100 50-250 10300 1000 1.5-48 27 1670+/-25 828D 0.001mm 0.001 Ra 0.32 m 0.090mm SK7432X20GX 20-250 2000 100 1.5-48 100 2150+/-25 828D 0.001mm P1 SK7120 2-200 350 25 0.25-6 60-+/-30 828D Ra 0.32 m 50mm 0.005mm LWX5 0.8-20 150-0.5-2.5 70 20 SYNTEC/FAGOR/SIEMENS 0.001mm,0.001 25 SK7450 0-250 12000-200 4000+/-30 Fanuc/Simens P3 SMS SH300-BS 0-400 3000 1600 200/1000+/-125 840D sl P1,P0 SH100-U 0-400 1000 400 0.5-14 200/1000+/-125 840D sl P1,P0 Holroyd TG 0-420 2200 150-700 100 7000+/-90 Holroyd(HPMS)0.002mm 300mm 0.007mm ZENITH 0-400 270 700 100 6500+/-90 HPMS 0.002mm 300mm 0.003mm GSE-A GSE-B 0-480 300-5000 200 4800+/-45 Fanuc 31i-B5 MONNIER M663 3-70 8-400 100+/-5 Fanuc 310i-A CNC Leistritz Burgsmuller GWT Weingartner Linsinger 2004 Leistritz PW160 CNC CNC 8m 1200 1 2 1 26 2 21 1 3C 27 22 23 IFR 2022 2021 51.7 31%2021 51%26.8 2025 69 24 25 2021 AI Day 2022 Optimus 28 14+12-4%12%24%15%20%32%6%-8%1%31%10%8%6%6%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0100200300400500600700800全球工业机器人安 装量（千 台）增速97156 155148178268207 243 268 243 216 249 51%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0501001502002503002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021中国工业机器人安装量（千台）全球其他国家工业机器人安装量（千台）中国工业机器人安装量增速 28 26 Optimus 27 AI Day2022 AI Day2022 21,2 14*1000+12*400=18.8 100 180 29 Rollvis GSA Ewellix CMC LSI Rollvis GSA Ewellix E Rollvis+GSA+Ewellix 66%28 2022 E 2 P7 L4 29 Rollvis26%GSA26%Ewellix14%Rexroth12%CMC3%南京工艺8%济宁博特8%优仕特3%Rollvis GSA Ewellix Rexroth CMC 南京工艺 济宁博特 优仕特 30 1.EPS MS SBW HPS HPS EPS MS HPS EHPS EPS EPS R-EPS EPS 2020 EPS 96.4%SBW 30 31 EPS ATC EPS C-EPS P-EPS DP-EPS R-EPS C-EPS P-EPS DP-EPS R-EPS R-EPS SUV 80%85%91%95%96%0%20%40%60%80%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020EPS 其他转向系统 31 32 R-EPS 33 R-EPS 22 C-EPS P-EPS DP-EPS R-EPS()RP-EPS RD-EPS C-EPS P-EPS,SUV SUV R-EPS R-EPS 32 16000N R-EPS 2019 R-EPS 7%23 R-EPS C-EPS P-EPS DP-EPS R-EPS 1200kg 10000N 10000N 12000N 16000N mini H6 CR-V H9 Q3 ES8 XT5 3/5 ES marklines 34 2013-2019 2./0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019C-EPS P-EPS D-EPS R-EPS 33 35 1 EHB EVP EHB EHB EHB 36 37 EHB EHB EHB 34 EHB EHB 1 EHB E-ACT iBooster E-ACT iBooster iBooster 2021 91.5%38 E-ACT 39 iBooster 24 EHB ibooster1.0 2013 CR-V 918 ibooster1.0 2017 E6 ES6 ES8 ONE P7 G3 MARVEL X IPB 2019 XT4 CT6 MKC1 2016 X5 X7 e-tron E-ACT 2019 Leaf IBC 2018 XT4 CT6 Space Drive 2019 EMB EMB EMB EHB/EMB EMB/EMB+35 25 EMB/EMB 2 EPB EPB 40 41 EPB(EPB)2022 36 1 2006-2011 2016-2021+2021 42 2022 43 2011-2015 2016 2020-2022 40%28%44 2023 1 15 2024 10.4 4500 750 10 55.9%33.6%7.0%3.1%0.4%液压油缸液压泵阀油缸配件液压系统其他业务-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%0204060801002010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022营业收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）营业收入同比（%）归母净利润同比（%）0%10%20%30%40%50%2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022销售毛利率(%)销售净利率(%)37 45 2 2019 2020 2022 91.7%+13.5%2023 2016-2022 12.3%2022 10.97 3.8%2.29 16.4%2023 29.1%62.2%46 2022 47 30%20%2017 2022 34.3%21.1%2023 91.7%4.8%汽车零部件工装夹具其他零部件其他收入飞机机舱零部件0%5%10%15%20%0246810122018 2019 2020 2021 2022营业收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）营业收入同比(%)归母净利润同比（%）38 48 2022 1 2023 5+10 5 10 49 50 3 2022 52.8%31.6%010203040502015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022毛利率(%)净利率(%)39 51 2022 52 2020 1.53 151%2021 2.81 84.2%2022 41.01 18.8%2.75 2%53 50 P2-P3 5 2022 2/28/13/5 3 4 70%26/980 28 2.74 102 30 0.31 52.8%31.6%8.8%机床类零部件类工具类仪器仪表类贸易类其他业务其他-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%-1001020304050602018 2019 2020 2021 2022营业收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）营业收入同比（%）归母净利润同比（%）(15)(10)(5)05101520252015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022毛利率(%)净利率(%)40 1050 13 1.37 225 26 0.59-5.00 2022 A 4 2019 0.8 2022 3.2 CAGR 58.7%2019 216.5 2022 1.0 CAGR 259.9%2019 54 60%55 2022 64.9%2023 6 70%56 0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022线性执行器 音圈电机 混合式步进电机其他 直流电机 其他业务收入-5%0%5%10%15%20%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.52018 2019 2020 2021 2022营业收入(亿元）归母净利润（亿元）营业收入同比（%）归母净利润同比（%）0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022毛利率(%)净利率(%)41 1 2 3 4 57 PEBand 58 PBBand 15x25x30 x40 x55x050010001500200025003000Sep/21 Mar/22 Sep/22 Mar/231.5x2.3x3.0 x3.8x4.5x0200400600800100012001400160018002000Sep/21 Mar/22 Sep/22 Mar/23 42 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%
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