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|2024 5 31-6.77%-6.48%300 4.34%23 2023 C919 2024 24 1 C919 1200 2023 2024 UUV(300114)(600760)(000768)(600893)(600038)(600316)(002179)(002025)(600372)(688439)(000733)(688122)(600765)(600399)(300034)(000738)(605123)(300855)(002985)(300699)(600862)(300101)(300762)(688375)(002465)(600879)(300455)(002025)(688385)(002049)(002446)(001270)(688270)(300900)(002111)(000801)(600990)(600562)(603308)(688070)(000768)(600765)(600760)(600038)(600862)2 1.1ZEVzQtOpMnMpRnOrMtMmN6M9R7NoMoOoMtPlOrRoQeRqRmP9PoOwOxNmRnQvPmQsM 3.4.37.38.39.40.41.42 UUV.43.44.4 2022.16.17.0+5RYR0q1Y23OI+YeS7LmZDzSda0ryHb0G1WUCrSdD4DrX80btNabNxUohhgnXnV 5 1 1.1 5 1015 2030 2027 2035 2027 1 2022 2 24 6 SIPRI 2023 2023 15 9.01%2023 9160 37%2960 2.72 51%24%10%2 2008 2023%SIPRI 2023 2019-2023 17%42%2023 357 2019-2023 2022-23 30 3 2023 4 1 11 2 3 4 10 7 10 9 4 1 2 6 SIPRI SIPRI-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023&0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002023/7 2024 16655.4 7.2%2010 2017 33.3%41.1%13.4%2017 2024 6845 5 2010 2017 World Air Force 2024 2023 3304 13209 4255 25%1207 J-7/8/10/11/15/16/20 Su-27/30/33/35 560 46%628 52%19 2%2230 F-15/16/22/35 F/A-18 1676 75%554 25%0%5%10%15%20%25%05001000150020002500300035004000450050002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 8 6 2023 7 2023 World Air Force 2024 World Air Force 2024 1.2 2024 24 300 2024 5 31-6.77%-6.48%300 4.34%27 17 Wind 19,2%628,52%560,46%(J-20)(J-10/11/15/16,Su-27/30/33/35)(J-7/8)554,25%1676,75%(F-22/35)(F-15/16,F/A-18)-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%300 9 Wind Wind 2024 5 3 5 31 2024 28 3 18 11 2023 5 31 PE TTM-25.0%-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002008-06-022008-10-142009-02-252009-07-062009-11-162010-03-292010-08-062010-12-212011-05-062011-09-092012-01-312012-06-112012-10-222013-03-062013-07-192013-12-022014-04-152014-08-212015-01-052015-05-192015-09-242016-02-042016-06-212016-11-022017-03-152017-07-252017-12-042018-04-182018-08-242019-01-082019-05-242019-09-302020-02-182020-06-302020-11-102021-03-232021-08-022021-12-142022-04-282022-09-062023-01-182023-06-052023-10-182024-02-29收盘价 25.16x 46.55x 67.94x 89.33x 110.72x 10 Wind 12 2024 5 31 PE TTM Wind 122 2023 2023 5134 7.76%339 23.06%2023 0100200300400500600()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()0102030405060708090()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()11 13 2018-2023 122 14 2018-2023 122 Wind Wind 2024 4 12,9 2 2.1 2.1.1 ARJ21 C919 CR929 400 1/1 100 600-1200 ARJ21 A220 ERJ 1 100-200 10000 C919 A320 B737 2 250-350 10000 C929 A330 B787 A350 B777 2 400 10000-A380 B747 ARJ21 C919 C929 ARJ21 2016 2022 12 2024 2 127 3119 3472 3708 4239 4764 5134 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%01000200030004000500060002018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 168 192 322 377 391 339-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0501001502002503003504004502018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 12 C919 2023 5 24 6 1 C929 2024 2030 15 ARJ21 ARJ21 2008 2015 2024 2 127 2023 11 775 30 50 22 12(TransNusa)2024 ARJ21 ARJ21 6 ARJ21 ARJ21 C919 2023 C919 2007 2017 2023 C919 24 2 24 6 1 C919 2025 C919 C919 737 A320 20.4 0.785 12,100 4075 5555 9 C919 100 5 20 6000 C919 737-MAX A320-NEO C919 13 16 C919 17 C919 C919 24 1 C919 1200 2023 9 28 100 C919 2024 2031 2024 5 20252027 10 20282030 15 2031 20 2024 4 29 100 C919 2024 2031 2024 4 26 100 C919 2024 2031 2023 4 28 60 C919 40 ARJ21 2024 4 25 24Q4 C919 C919 2027 30 2024 2 40 C919 737 C919 737 737MAX9 737 2024 737 38 C919 1.211.110.9900.20.40.60.811.21.4737MAX8 A320neo C919目录价格 14 C919 15-20 20 100 12 15%C919 3 737 2024 5 31 737 737 527 133 10.9 672 211 10.9 672 142 9.6 215 147 9.7 199 79 10.5 195 0-164 140 10.2 133 133 10.3 127 0-ifind AIRFLEETS.NET C919 C919 24 50 27 150 100 2024 4 C919 C919 C919 15 2.1.2 20 6.5 Commercial Market Outlook 2023-2042 20 42595 1810 32430 76%7440 Global Market Forecast 2023 20 40850 32630 80%8220 20%2023-2042 20 4040 32253 7351 6.5 20 9171 1.4 2022 2022 3942 86 4 2022 245 32 6.2%472 7 12.0%3225 47 81.8%3942 86 2022 2023-2042 2042 20.6%9969 7126 1926 917 20 9171 898 6451 1822 1.4 5 2023-2042 110 25 0 406 194 0 3524 1823 898 2439 2225 260 19594 22997 4974 10220 13802 1217 5677 16974 1316 1216 4717 477 458 2214 29 16 6/20/ARJ21 ERJ A220 50 3800 898 C919 A320Neo 737MAX 5 150 0.99 6451 C929 A330 B787 A350 B777 3.17 A350 1822 Statista 1015%2025%6070%7 1 2 2033 MRO 182 Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2023-2033 2033 MRO 182 20232033 CAGR 6.8%MRO 31 83 39 29 18 MRO Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2023-2033 2.1.3 0204060801001201401601802002023 2033E 17 1950 GE UTC GE UTC PCC C919“+”60%C919 C919 C919 C919 7 I CFM II-III PPG AEHI AMl DME Deutsch()45%8 18 C919 50%40%()()()()70%APU RAT 637 C919 C919 130 3D 3D C919 C929 C919 C919 C919 C919 PCD T800 300M 4340 321 15-5PH 300M()19 15%UTC GE UTC UTC C919 C919 60 ARJ21 C919 2012 2018 2023 2024 4 C919 C919 9 51%49%50%50%/APU 49%51%50%50%50%50%20 UTC UTC UTC 50%GE 50%50%50%50%50%99%1%UTC 86.74%99%1%UTC 50%50%I III C919()25%5-10 Trent LEAP 2018 GE CJ-1000/2000 2009 2016 2023 CJ1000A-20 21 CJ1000A CJ2000 CR929 10 C919 LEAP-1C CFM CJ1000A ARJ21 CF34-10A GE CR929 GEnx-1B GE Trent 7000 CJ2000 CJ CJ LEAP CJ CJ LEAP-1C CJ 300M News()OEM OEM 11 ATE C919 C919 II ACM ADP ECU 22 2.2 2013 19 20 23 2.2.1 2019-2023 CAGR 23%2019-2023 CAGR 1.6%2023 1.56%3900 2019-2023 23%2020 1 2023 2 2024 2.3 21 22 SIA OneWeb SpaceX Telesat 3.6 GW G60 Galaxy 366037103860384039003960-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%3500360037003800390040002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 836210202126261577619436233820%5%10%15%20%25%30%05000100001500020000250002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 24 12 GW 12992 G60 12000 10000 Galaxy 1000 2.2.2 2024 2023 82%2023 223 67 116 17 2023 67 2024 2 26 2023 2024 100 49.2%2023 67 1 23 24 2023 116 SpaceX 98 14 NASA 4 SpaceX NASA 2023 67 13 96%20%25 2023%26 2023%5155258764221166717020406080100120140 2021 2022 20233235526266 24321010203040506070802019 2020 2021 2022 2023 25 2 3 4 6 1000 3 3 2024 7 24 OPPO Pura 70 Pro Pura 70 Pro+Pura 70 Ultra U8 2023 2024 4 30 5 30 2023 170 185 5000 3 3.1 2023 12 2024 3 2024 3 27 98,85%14,12%4,3%Space X NASA 54,81%13,19%26 2024-2030 13 2024 5 22 2024 4 18 2024 4 17 2024 4 13 2024 3 27 2024-2030 2024 3 26 2024 3 5 2024 2024 1 1 2024 5 21 2024 2026 2024 5 15 2024-2027 2024 5 15 2024-2026 2024 5 8 2024 4 19 2024-2026 2024 4 18 2024 2026 2024 4 1 2024 2027 2024 1 3 2024 2 1 3000 27 27 eVTOL 2023 5059.5 33.8%2026 10644.6 2025 1.5 2035 3.5 28 2021-2026 2911.83780.75059.56702.58591.710644.69.3%29.8%33.8%32.5%28.2%23.9%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%0200040006000800010000120002021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 28 2023 3173 2023 135.7 11.3%14 2021/80622 720605 11.2%3018 205870 1.5%1019 19853 5.1%370 2904 12.7%117.8 2500 4.7%29 2019-2023 30 2020-2023 2019 240 2023 451 17.1%2023 13%2025 500 2023 689 4.2%2019 2023 9.6%270728923018318631736.8%4.4%5.6%-0.4%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%24002500260027002800290030003100320033002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 98.4117.8121.9135.70.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%0204060801001201401602020 2021 2022 2023 29 31 2019-2023 32 2019-2023 2019-2023 CAGR 34.1%2023 126.7 32.3%2019 2023 CAGR 34.1%33 2019-2023 eVTOL eVTOL Electric Vertical Take-off and Landing eVTOL eVTOL eVTOL eVTOL 2050 eVTOL 9 2.1 eVTOL eVTOL 2023 10 TC 2023 122403393703994510%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%01002003004005002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 4785235996616890%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%01002003004005006007008002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 39.251.783.295.8126.70%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0204060801001201402019 2020 2021 2022 2023 30 AC 2024 4 PC eVTOL 2024 3 22 V2000CG eVTOL TC eVTOL 15 eVTOL 20 eVTOL 2026 2024 2 27 eVTOL eVTOL 500-600 3 100 1 2.5-3 20 200-300 2000 5 200/100%2026 34 31 3 2024-2030-2024 300 1.2 2013 2018 800 2000 1.2 35 36 32 unmanned undersea vehicle,UUV UUV,16/;33 1994 2016 10 4 37 UUV,Bluefin REMUS Iver(upward falling payload,UFP)Hydra 38(Remus)39(Remus)34 UUV,CR UUV-X 2020 10619 2021 10896m-L 2018 4 HSU001 15km UUV,40 41 UUV UUV 2 UUV 2004 2007 2010 UUV 42 UUV 35 1/2 3 1997 1 2017 1 UUVRON-1 5 UUVRON-1 2021 2022 2 UUVRON-2 UUVRON-1 UUVRON-1 5 UUVRON-1 UUV UUVRON-2 36 17 N m/Kg Gpa 1.33E63.50E6 200-700 3000 400 1.21E61.83E6 73-200 500-750 2.50E62.52E6 63-131 500 0.81E60.93E6 270-400 1300 CFRP 21 CFRP eVTOL SiC CMC 1 100 10%2 1650 1100 CMC 1/3 1/10 SiC/SiC 50%70%400 500 CMC F-22 APTGD Si3N4 HSR/EPM IHPTET VAATE UEET AMG 20 90 NASA EPM SiC/SiC GE 10 10 10 66 2021 10 GE NASA NASA HYTEC 37 5%10%CMC 2025/1700K 0.91 4.8 CMC 1980 43 38/30%60%10%44 F-22 39 1 2020 2021 1-6 87.69%81.25%2 3D 700 1000 40(300114)(600760)(000768)(600893)(600038)(600316)(002179)(002025)(600372)(688439)(000733)(688122)(600765)(600399)(300034)(000738)(605123)(300855)(002985)(300699)(600862)(300101)(300762)(688375)(002465)(600879)(300455)(002025)(688385)(002049)(002446)(001270)(688270)(300900)(002111)(000801)(600990)(600562)(603308)(688070)(000768)(600765)(600760)(600038)(600862)41 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%
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