资源描述
2024 07 29|021-60375452 021-61761035 0755-S0980523060004 S0980524070008 26 30 2019-2021/ETF Smart Beta ABS/REITs FOF/MOM Beta Z YWBYzQmRnOqRsMsRrMrOoP9P8Q6MmOmMmOrNjMrRqPkPtQqQbRmMuNxNnNrPvPtQpM 01 02 03 04 550 32%68%ETF 59%61%70%30%15%30%WindYafUF4Kuf1NinRJXQrk+u0nPyPSCGvG90wyKf2tEx5vomibvd7m/7y12E5/SBj4o iFinD 10.12%17.59%-14.46%-10.24%16.10%11.02%-0.05%2.83%0204060801001201401602014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 4.13%CAGR(2019-2023)137/Wind 2024 6 140.39 29.26 2023 2 7.3%27.67 26.80 Wind 2024-06-30 2023-12-31 2023-12-31 2023-12-31 2024-05-31 050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,0002012 01 2012 04 2012 07 2012 10 2013 01 2013 04 2013 07 2013 10 2014 01 2014 04 2014 07 2014 10 2015 01 2015 04 2015 07 2015 10 2016 01 2016 04 2016 07 2016 10 2017 01 2017 04 2017 07 2017 10 2018 01 2018 04 2018 07 2018 10 2019 01 2019 04 2019 07 2019 10 2020 01 2020 04 2020 07 2020 10 2021 01 2021 04 2021 07 2021 10 2022 01 2022 04 2022 07 2022 10 2023 01 2023 04 2023 07 2023 10 2024 01 2024 04 2024 07 QDII FOF REITs 12.49 9.69 3.48 2.86 Wind 2024 7 5 12.49 9.69 43%33%2023 2024 7 5 3.48 2023 11 14%300%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%QDII FOF REITs Wind 2000-2024%1998 25 2024 5 162 31.24 11941 2014 21.3%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024 Wind 2000-2024%vs 2024 6 97.7%2.2%0.1%2021 QDII REITs 2024 6 42.7%33.1%11.9%9.8%2.5%Wind Wind 94.5%94.5%93.3%95.0%97.4%97.7%5.5%5.5%6.6%4.9%2.5%2.2%90%91%92%93%94%95%96%97%98%99%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-6 50.4%40.2%37.1%40.6%41.4%42.7%26.7%24.9%27.0%29.7%33.2%33.1%14.1%24.2%24.3%18.6%13.6%11.9%7.7%9.2%9.2%8.7%9.4%9.8%0.3%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-6 QDII FOF REITs vs 2024 6 88.97%11.03%;2019 85%Wind 2024 6 99.45%0.55%2019 99%100.0%100.0%99.8%99.7%99.4%99.4%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%0.6%0.6%95%96%97%98%99%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-6 Wind Wind93.3%95.3%91.2%87.9%85.7%89.0%6.7%4.7%8.8%12.1%14.3%11.0%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-6 vs 2024 53.12%18.38%0.50%61.51%26.42%2.21%2019 50%20%48.1%44.7%46.9%50.8%52.5%53.1%16.8%24.9%25.6%22.1%19.2%18.4%22.9%17.8%17.4%16.5%18.7%18.4%0.2%0.4%0.7%0.7%0.5%0.5%12.0%12.1%9.4%9.9%9.0%9.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1 Wind Wind 85.4%86.6%89.1%88.5%59.4%61.5%4.2%7.0%1.1%4.5%25.2%26.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1()01 02 03 04 70 ICI 2024 2024 ICI Fact Book 2023 68.95 ETF 2023 33.9 25.5 ETF 8.1 2,490 770 ICI 36.40 38.24 40.63 49.28 46.58 54.74 62.85 70.86 60.11 68.95 010203040506070802013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 255000810002490770050000100000150000200000250000 ETF ICI 2022 1 BlackRock 8,052,929 2 Vanguard Asset Management 6,743,333 3 Fidelity Investments 3,652,639 4 State Street Global Advisors 3,262,097 5 J.P.Morgan Asset Management 2,616,400 6 Goldman Sachs Asset Management International 2,152,088 7 Capital Group 2,044,383 8 Amundi 1,903,995 9 PIMCO/1,631,071 10 BNY Mellon Inestment Management 1,615,000 11 Legal&General Investment Management 1,351,130 12 Invesco/1,320,654 13 Franklin Templeton 1,296,418 14 PGIM 1,290,622 15 Morgan Stanley Investment Management 1,222,448 16 T.Rowe Price 1,194,379 17 Wellington Management International 1,082,381 18 Natixis Investment Manangers 1,078,785 19 Nuveen 1,018,179 20 UBS Asset Management 996,688 2022 20 IPE 2023 68.8 70.9 2023 2023 46%1 19%15%11%/9%46%4.9 5.2 5.9 6.9 8.3 8.8 8.9 10.4 3.3 3.5 4.8 4.8 5.6 6.1 5.7 6.4 8.0 8.0 10.4 11.8 13.1 13.7 11.5 12.94.7 5.2 6.4 6.7 7.6 8.6 7.1 7.3 15.5 16.3 21.8 24.5 28.3 33.6 26.9 31.8 36.4 38.2 49.3 54.7 62.9 70.8 60.1 68.8 2013 2015 2017 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/15%9%19%/11%46%ICI ICI 2023 ETF 33.6 21.5 9.7 401 k UCITS UCITS 14%49%31%14%6%16.7 17.7 18.9 22.1 21.1 25.7 29.3 34.1 28.6 33.6 13.6 13.7 14.1 17.7 16.4 18.7 21.6 23.2 19.1 21.5 3.8 4.8 5.2 6.5 6.4 7.2 8.8 10.0 9.1 9.8 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.9 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.6 3.4 4.0 36.40 38.24 40.63 49.28 46.58 54.74 62.85 70.86 60.11 68.95 010203040506070802013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 ICI ICI 2022/2021 3.3 2022 1,560 2022 2023 7,810 2022 9,370 2023 2023 2,870 3,860 1,500 552 330 312 788 246 530 270 1,151(191)287 817 660 361 941 327 473 496 1,046(226)150 121 477 354 200 332 345 469 676 256 386 1,628 1,587 1,138 2,122 974 1,463 1,338 3,265(156)781(1000)(500)05001000150020002500300035002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ICI 2023 7,810 2023 2022 2,600 2023 6,310 2022 20 2,180 502 529 208 723 482 65 140 1,123(2)218 45554814928172158265623-63-2621011721652401772122033241691945693386158772431,0297291,195-2606311,628 1,587 1,138 2,122 974 1,463 1,338 3,265(156)781-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/ICI 2023 8.5 1.52 2022 1.36 2022 10 2023 1.13 2023 2022 40 1,930 1,360 2022 1,320 1127-2511718258670042411,127-77911572-2270250-20-4193190298-14404-9930302254132136-325518204315336819140582598797061,2956731611,524-400-20002004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ICI 2022 28.9 2023 33.93 17.56%25.52 75%52%ETF 8.1 ETF 72%0.3 20 2023 59%15.6 4.4 6.4 7.5,25519,75.2%ETFs,8085,23.8%,249,0.7%,77,0.2%,15.6,46%,4.4,13%,6.4,19%,5.8,17%,1.7,5%ICI ICI 2023 22.6%IRA DC 401 k 2023 IRA DC 10.0%1990 1.3%/ETF ETF 30 2023 33%22%2023 DC 11.1 60%1.3 IRA DC 401 k 2023 66%48%18%6,2073,1571,264345,2615595,85819918,5893,94902,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000 IRAs DC plans27%43%30%IRA DC,48%,18%,21%,14%DC IRA 60%66%ICI ICI 1945 90%2023 25.5 52%23%19%6%19%ETF 2023 ETF 8.1 12%1520 ETF Fundamental Fixed IncomeFundamental EquitiesReal EstateDecarb&TransitionMunicipalsPrivate CreditInfrastructurePrivate Equity PartnersFinancial InstitutionsSystematic High AlphaSecondariesLiability-DrivenMulti-Asset Event DrivenCash ManagementAmericas InstitutionalEMEA WealthAsia-Pacific Retirement&Index Financial Markets AdvisoryMarkets&Trading Investment Operations Corporate Operations One BlackRock Aladdinby BlackRock 2000-2023 2000 0.99%2023 0.42%57%2000 0.76%2023 0.37%51%2000 0.89%2023 0.58%25%ETF ETF ETF 2015 0.82%2023 0.43%48%ETF 2015 0.47%2023 0.35%26%ETF ETF 2015 0.25%20230.15%40%ETF 2015 0.20%2023 0.11%45%0.990.830.50.420.890.820.610.580.760.630.420.371.61.461.161.111.441.361.21.161.131.030.850.832000 2010 2020 2023 2000 2010 2020 2023 2000 2010 2020 2023 0.820.900.740.530.430.250.210.180.170.150.470.480.400.390.350.200.180.140.120.110.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.002015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 ETF ETF ETF ETF%ETF%ICI ICI Solo Manager 29%500 14%Co/lead Manager Dodge&Cox Multiple Manager Ameriean Funds 60 1950s 1960s-2000 60 20 2000 80%225 1997 2011-2014 50%2016 2023 20.98 10.65%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0204060801001201401601802001999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2015 ETF 2019 ETF 2024 5 ETF 5.04 1.23 ETF ETF ESG ETF 2000 2007 ETF 2023 2534.66 ETF 2024 3 ETF 1750 390 ETF ETF+ETF 16,70317,37721,06123,36538,54250,422010,00020,00030,00040,00050,0002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 45413/ETF 19,672 19,748 22,037 21,235 23,185 25,719 40,046 45,232 49,552 48,568 67,362 80,753 010000200003000040000500006000070000800002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 45413 ETF“”1988 2022 AUM 8.59 02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,00010,000,00012,000,0002010-032010-122011-092012-062013-032013-122014-092015-062016-032016-122017-092018-062019-032019-122020-092021-062022-032022-122023-09:AUM05,000,00010,000,00015,000,00020,000,00025,000,00030,000,0002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 AUM Wind,Wind,02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,00010,000,00012,000,00014,000,0002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Wind,/2005 State Street Research and Management 2006 Merrill Lynch Investment Managers 2007 Quellos Group FOF FOF2008 Impact Inevsting 2009 R3 Capital Management 2009 Barclays Global Investors iShare ETF2010 Helix Financial Group 2010 Primasia Investment Trust 2012 Claymore Investments ETF 2012 Swiss Re Private Equity Partners 2013 Credit Suisse 2013 MGPA 2015 Infraestructura Institucional 2015 FutureAdvisor 2016Bank of America Global Capital Management 2017 Cachematrix 2018 Tennenbaum Capital Partners 2018 Citibanamex 2019 eFront 2021 Aperio SMA 2024 GIP 2024 Preqin ETFs ETFs,iShare ETF 1300 iShare ETF ETF 80%2022 iShare ETF 34%29%14%5%4%88.4%,2022%49%10%33%8%53%28%8%3%8%26%66%8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%ETF ETF,2022 ETF%34%29%14%5%4%2%12%ETF iShare Fixed Income ETFsiShare Factor ETFsiShare Thematic ETFsiShare Sustainable and Transition ETFsiShare Core ETFsiShare Precision ETFsBlackRock Alpha-Seeking ETFsBlackRock and third-party managed model portfolios,Aladdin 2000 2021 BGI Aladdin 2009 AladdinClimate 2020 AladdinWealth 2016 AI Tech2020 2018 Aladdin Aladdin Aladdin Asset Liability Debt Derivative 50+/Aladdin PIMCO:PIMCO 50 PIMCO 1.89 5 PIMCO 85%PIMCO,22%15%11%11%8%7%5%4%4%3%2%2%2%1%PIMCO%,PIMCO:PIMCO 3-5 6-12 PIMCO,Ben Bernanke 2022 Joshua Bolten Rock Creek Global Ascisors Gordon Brown Mark Carney Flournoy,PIMCO:PIMCO RealPath Fund PIMCO All Asset Fund PIMCO ETF NAV)PCM Fund,Inc,1 0.45%5 2.57%10 5.76%PIMCO 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond Index Exchange-Traded Fund1 8.99%5 2.90%10 3.72%PIMCO Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index Exchange-Traded Fund 1 2.12%5 2.01%10 2.78%PIMCO,US Government AgenciesCorporate Bonds&NotesNon-Agenvy Mortgage-Backed SecuritiesLoan Participations and AssignmentsCorporate Bond&NotesShort-term InstrumentsOtherIndustrialsBanking&FinanceUtilitiesU.S.Treasury ObligationsShort-term Instruments 20 80 1989 FSA,90 2022 50 53.7 15.9 2.8 73.5%21.7%3.8%4 2 2022 6425.28 5382.89 AUM1 8550.22 7286.33 7159.74 6425.35 5382.960%26%5%9%2022%Thinking Ahead Institute Thinking Ahead Institute 2022 5 2021 0 GPIF,4.8%11.9%10.1%52.5%12.6%35.5%1.3%4.9%2.2%12.9%39.4%21.0%25.4%28.6%29.1%3.0%2.7%2.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Japan USA Euro AreaInvestment Funds Currency and depositsBonds Shares and other equitiesInsurance and pension reserves Others%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 GPIF,%:QE QE ETF J-REITs ETF J-REITs 0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,0001,000,000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,0002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024.4 010203040506070020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,0002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024.3 2014-2024 4 ETF,2014-2024 3 J-REITs,2022 2.33%10 200bp 2022 12.01%3.61%2.33%/2018 2.3%0.4%1.6%82.6%8.2%1.6%3.3%100.0%2019 2.7%0.5%1.8%81.9%7.7%1.6%3.8%100.0%2020 2.6%0.4%2.1%83.2%7.2%1.5%3.0%100.0%2021 2.4%0.4%2.2%83.3%6.9%1.5%3.3%100.0%2022 2.8%0.7%2.3%82.3%7.1%1.5%3.3%100.0%2018-2022%LIAJ 49%2%8%7%29%2022%LIAJ 2011 2022 90%2022 95.7%4.3%186271189719195168197582 197081217821876625042 24315 2417448.0%48.3%47.3%47.0%48.4%5.6%4.8%6.1%5.8%5.9%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%-2000030000800001300001800002300002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 9136094130101084105719928005165399752135811417924.9%25.0%25.8%26.6%23.8%22.0%22.5%23.0%23.5%24.0%24.5%25.0%25.5%26.0%26.5%27.0%0200004000060000800001000001200002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022%LIAJ 2022%LIAJ 2012 2023 17.1%25.7%11.7%13.8%3.8%6.4%2012-2023 6.52%4.60%01 02 03 04/2022 500 102.6 761.6 5.5%10 1/3 BlackRock 8 60 41 500 10 13 15 2 1 100 2022 8 10 0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000 2022 2021 31 38 7 36 45 9 64 75 11 67 74 7 71 71 0 85 133 48 91 86-5 97 112 15 99 102 3 100 97-3 102 92-10 103 106 3 105 104-1 105 129 24 110 119 9 500 20 15 IPE,IPE,02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000 Wind 2006-2009 2013“”2014-2016 2019-2021 2023 ETF 30 1998-2005“”“”1998-2005 0 1997 11 1997 2005 QDII Wind 19971998 1999 2001200220032006 QDII 2006-2020 Wind 2005 2007 A 5000 15000 2008 2012 A 2013“”2014 2020 Wind%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%10 20 020406080100120140160180 2006-2009 Wind 2006 4342+129.5%2007 1.65+279.1%2006 2007 162.7%75.2%2006 Wind 2006 2006-2009 Wind A 2003 2007 30%2005 53%2006 89%Wind A 2006 Wind 2013 1 2011 2 QE 3 2013 5 OMO 4780 5 2013 Wind Wind 2013 2013 5 OMO 2011 Wind 2013 Wind 2013 5 2.01 42.44 5741.60 T+1 7 7%2013 4.9%Wind R007 7 15 2013%7 Wind 2013 2013+32.8%2014+157.5%2014 68.7%Wind Wind 2014-2016 2014 Wind Wind 2014-16 2014 2016 2014-2016 2013 3087 2016 1.45 368.3%2014 53.1%2016 81.9%2014 44.6%2016 70.6%Wind Wind 2019-2021 Wind ROE 2017 A 2019 Wind 2017 Wind 2019-2021 2018 1.54 2021 6.04 2019-2021 41%122%26%2018 12.0%2021 24.0%2019-2021 63%57%29%2019-2021 2021 80.8%2018 Wind Wind Wind ETF 2019-2021 ETF ETF 1 2022 ETF Wind Wind ETF ETF 2019-2021 2021 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q11 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2010 2014 2015 2020“”2021 ETF 2023 ETF Wind ETF ETF ETF 2021 3 2023 ETF 2023 ETF 1.4 2.0 Wind 10 ETF Wind 2023 ETF Wind ETF ETF ETF 70%ETF 20%ETF ETF ETF QDII ETF ETF ETF 52%48%ETF ETF QDII ETF Wind ETF ETF ETF Wind 1 2“”“”+1 2+1“”2 3 1 09 4 2 3+1 2 1 2 3 1 2:4G/5G Wind Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity Gartner 50+60-70 90 2018+“+”+为 什 么 乐 高能够 诞 生90 多 年，还 稳 坐 拼搭积 木 类 玩 具王座？我 们 认为其 核 心 吸 引力是 创 新，其自诞 生 起，就不断 研 发 和 生产新 产 品 来 满足用 户 的 需 求，乐 高 的 迷 人之处 还 在 于 变化，它 拥 有 超过3700 种 砖 型 模块，仅 仅6 块积 木 就 能 形成超 过9.15 亿 种潜 在 组 合。这 些 年，无论主 动 还 是 指数化，华 夏 基金都 在 创 设 颗粒度 越 来 越 小的资 产 类 别，就像 可 以 用 一小块 一 小 块 的乐高 拼 出 各 种形状、各 种 大小的 造 型 一 样，我 们 相 信 只有对 资 产 的 理解和 管 理 有 了这样 的 颗 粒 度，才 能 给 财 富管理 带 来 更 多可实 现 的“创意组 合”，才能更 好 地 服 务于财 富 管 理。华夏基金总经理 李一梅 2023 2023 Wind 30+AUM+01 02 03 04 今 后，中 国资管 行 业 的 发展有 三 大 机 遇：一是养老金，需 要 在 制 度层面 全 面 推 进个人 养 老 金 账户、设 计 出与之 相 适 配 的税收 激 励 政 策，以 及 进 一 步完善 其 他 配 套政策；二 是 高净值 客 户，预计 中 国 该 群体的 数 量 和 投资规 模 将 在 未来五 年 延 续 较快增 长；三 是中国 居 民 财 富再分 配，特别是 从 房 地 产和存 款 向 金 融资产 的 转 移。在 具 体 的 资产配 置 模 式 方面，无 论 是 养老金、高 净 值客户，还 是 普通居 民，都 存在绝 对 收 益 和业 绩 弹 性 的双重 需 求，诸如“全 天 候”、“固 收+”之类 的 均 衡 型资产 配 置 模 式在我 国 将 具 有较 强 的 竞 争力。泰康保险集团执行副总 裁兼首 席投资 官 段国圣 2011 Wind 0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0019901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021%70%(20.00)(10.00)0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.002004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022:%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.00100.0019901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021%Wind Wind 2014 Wind 2.002.503.003.504.004.505.002003/01/032004/01/032005/01/032006/01/032007/01/032008/01/032009/01/032010/01/032011/01/032012/01/032013/01/032014/01/032015/01/032016/01/032017/01/032018/01/032019/01/032020/01/032021/01/032022/01/032023/01/03:10 250%2.002.503.003.504.004.505.005.502011/04/012011/09/012012/02/012012/07/012012/12/012013/05/012013
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