20240710_华福证券_电力行业2024年度中期投资策略：韧性十足双碳归来_31页.pdf

2024 S0210524050013|2024 7 10 华福证券 1H24 1-5 3.84 8.6%2H24 24 ROE 22 23 10 6-10+43.75GW 27 23 23 22 24 24 523 2 华福证券 ZXDWzQqNnOpOoQnOnQtMqR7NcMbRnPoOnPqMfQqQqPlOnPoN7NqQvNwMmRtQuOmNsP 回顾1H24 展望2H24 各板块展望 投资建议 风险提示目录3 华福证券 1.1 1H24 4 2024 1 2-6 26 2024 1 2-6 26 2024 1 2-6 26 2 iFind wind 45.2%-36.1%38.5%-16.5%49.5%-34.7%39.9%-33.6%8.7%-20.4%6.2%-16.5%-8.2%ST-8%-14.5%-34.5%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()IT)()()()()()()()()()-30-20-10 0 10 20 30()()300()()()华福证券 x39+vPMdFO7caXCM8/wILknPyPSCGvG90wyKf2tEx5vcLoEbKLeoIvZdyx6B4WJ0 1.2 5 1-5 3.837 8.6%1-5 495 9.7%1.9pct 2021-2024 CAGR 11.0%1-5 25365 7.2%2.3pct 2021-2024 CAGR 5.2%1-5 6918 12.7%2.9pct 2021-2024 CAGR 8.1%1-5 5592 9.9%8.8pct 2021-2024 CAGR 6.1%1-5 1-5 1.3%56.5%25.7%16.5%1M-5M24 1M-5M24 1M-5M24 8.6%1M-5M24 kWh iFinD-20000200040006000-100%-50%0%50%100%-5%0%5%10%15%20%010000200003000040000500001-5-YoY 4951%2536566%691818%559215%华福证券 1.3 6 1-5 36569.7 5.5%CAGR 6.1%1-5 11564 510 4.6%5 27.07 11.4%CAGR 3.8%1-5 1372 58 4.1%1-5 4281 13.0%CAGR 16.1%0.88 11.18%1.91 68.83%0.82 11.07%0.94 4.09%0.28 4.83%1M-5M24 kWh 1M-5M24 kW 1M-5M24 5.5%1M-5M24 4.1%iFinD-5%0%5%10%15%20%0100002000030000400001-5-YoY 25172.669%4088.511%4048.311%1764.95%1495.24%3443%121011%1191%1976 791568%-10%-5%0%5%10%12501300135014001450150015501600h1-5-YoY 华福证券 1.4 7 93 49 10 20 6 8 1Q24 48 30 6 9 3 6 21 9 4 3 3 2 24 10 8 3 3 2.6%36.0%1.7%21.7%13.0%1Q23 3.4 3.3pct 1Q24 2.6%1Q24 1.7%1Q24 36.0%1Q24/+3.4/+3.3pct wind 0%10%20%30%40%0200040006000-()YoY()-20%0%20%40%60%80%010002000300040005000-()YoY()-400%-200%0%200%-50005001000-()YoY()-20%-10%0%10%20%30%-华福证券 回顾1H24 展望2H24 各 板块展望 投资建议 风险提示目录8 华福证券 2.1 10 2024 6 26 24 33.76bp 2.22%2024 1 3-5 31 300 4.91pct Wind A 12.98pct 1.3-1.18 1.25-2.2 3.7-3.11 4.2-4.26 23&1Q24 1Q24 5.10-5.31 9 wind 6M2010 10-20%-10%0%10%20%()300 A 1H24 300 4.91pct2%3%4%5%:10 华福证券 2.2 10 5 14 5 23 2023 2022 2024 2023 2022&iFinD&2015 3 2016 11;2018 11 2019 6 2019 6 8 2019 9 8+2020 2021 10 2021 11 2023 3 15 2 5 9 2024 4 1(25)2024 5 2024 5 华福证券 2.3 11 2024 2023 2022/01(),02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,华福证券 回顾1H24 展望2H24 各板块展望 投资建议 风险提示目录12 华福证券 3.1 13 Wind 1Q24 1M-5M24 14.9%1M-5M24 20.7%1M-5M24 13%1M-5M24 0.1%1Q24-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%020406080100-YoY kWh-10%10%30%50%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%010002000300040005000 kWh1-5-YoY-100%-50%0%50%100%150%0200400600800 kW1-5-YoY-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%-400-300-200-1000100200h-1-5-40%-20%0%20%40%0100200300400 1-5-YoY 华福证券 3.1 14 Wind DDM 10/2022 0%2%4%6%8%0%200%400%600%:10:10-华福证券 3.1 15 Wind*2014 1 11 201461 2 1 2015 5 5(2015962)2022 7 14 2022 752+0.391/22 25 5 0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.35/kWh-2018-2019-2020-2021-2022-2023-8-6-4-20246810/kWh-2018-2019-2020-2021-2022-2023 2018-2023 2018-2023 2018-2023-10-8-6-4-20246810/kWh-2018-2019-2020-2021-2022-2023 华福证券 3.2 16 1M-5M24 0.2%1M-5M24 42.8%1M-5M24 3.6%1M-5M24 45.1%1Q24 3.0%1Q24 85.8%iFind wind-10%0%10%20%30%40%010002000300040005000-()YoY()-2000%-1500%-1000%-500%0%500%-600-400-2000200400-()YoY()-5%0%5%10%15%20%0100002000030000 kWh1-5-YoY-100%-50%0%50%100%150%0100020003000 kW1-5-YoY-20%-10%0%10%20%-200-1000100200300h-1-5-YoY-1-5-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0100200300400 1-5-YoY 华福证券 3.2 17 11M22 23 ROE 24 876/24 24 ROE 22-23 24 2013 SW ROE wind iFind 1500170019002100230025002700290031003300020040060080010001200140016001800:(Q5500,)/2021 2022 2023 1Q2024 1Q2023 0.4319 0.5099 0.5087 0.4980 0.5187 0.4300 0.5190 0.5168 0.5093 0.5309 0.3613 0.4389 0.4378 0.4556 0.4631 0.3893 0.4608 0.4664 0.4764 0.4897 0.3087 0.3668 0.3439 0.3506 0.3787 0.4430 0.5110 0.5230 0.5150 0.5230 0.5200 0.6200 0.6100 0.6100 0.6300-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0500100015002000:(Q5500,)/SW ROE SW ROE 21-1Q24 2022 vs SW 华福证券 3.2 18 2024 2024 9.8 6%2024-2025 5.5%2024 6500 1000 240 8000 22000 2024 5.5%2024-0.7%15.7%3.3%14.9%35.3%2025 iFind 24-25 24 24 17%3%1%21%58%-7%34%2%22%35%2023A 2024E 2025E kWh 92241 97314 102667YOY 6.7%5.5%5.5%kWh 61019 60586 61141YOY 6.2%-0.7%0.9%kWh 12836 14855 15422YOY-5.0%15.7%3.8%kWh 4341 4483 4668YOY 3.9%3.3%4.1%kWh 8858 10181 11811YOY 16.2%14.9%16.0%kWh 5833 7895 10348YOY 36.4%35.3%31.1%华福证券 3.3 19 1M-5M24 1.0%1M-5M24 0.2%1Q24 0.4%1Q24 3.1%iFind 1M-5M24 0.7%1M-5M24 24.8%-10%0%10%20%30%0200400600 kWh-YoY-10%0%10%20%0200400600800 kWh-YoY 0%10%20%30%40%0500100015002000 kWh1-5-YoY-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%050100150200250 kW1-5-YoY-5%0%5%10%-1000100200300h-1-5-YoY-1-5-50%0%50%100%0100200300400 1-5-YoY 华福证券 3.3 20 2021 2022 10 2012 2023 10 2022 6 8 10+37 43.75GW 2024 4 2024 5 25 1 5M24 2016-2030E 2018-2028E 0%10%20%30%40%01020304050201620172018201920202021202220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E GW 0%2%4%6%8%10%010203040 GW 20280 024 4510 100246810()+2375 1877 25 17 3176 1206 28 10 251 807 2 6 21 485 1 4 华福证券 3.3 21 2030 3 1.6/kW 20%3.33%ROE 12%30 35 2035 540-555 300 2020-2035 2019-2023 2020-2035 2015-2023 0%10%20%30%40%50%0.000.050.100.150.200.25 30%35%40%45%0.000.020.040.060.080.10 05001000-2000200400600+-0100200300400500600-200-1000100200300400500600+-华福证券 3.4 22 Wind 5M24 20.5%1M-5M24 29.3%5M24 51.3%1M-5M24 25.3%1M-5M24 20.8%1M-5M24 5.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%010002000300040005000 kWh1-5-YoY 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0500100015002000 kWh1-5-YoY-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%05001000150020002500 kW1-5-YoY-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0200040006000800010000 kW1-5-YoY 0%10%20%30%40%01000020000300004000050000 kW5-YoY 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01000020000300004000050000 kW5-YoY 华福证券 3.4 23 24 23 Wind 2023-&2023 7566 21602 3803 12861 96.0%144.9%2022 7.58 2024 23 24 12 A 23 23 23 24 23 4500 3900 25%ROE 23 23 24 2023 3 2023 9 2023 9 2024 1 2024 5 5 23 5 24 12 A 23-2023 kW-2023 YoY600905.SH 1354 552 138 12.01 82.70 14.5%001289.SZ 451 185 46 4.20 67.38 6.2%000537.SZ*132 53 13 0.71 10.19 7.0%600032.SH 88 37 9 0.48 9.78 4.9%600821.SH*73 29 7 0.65 8.60 7.6%600956.SH 48 22 5 0.57 27.34 2.1%000591.SZ 33 13 3 0.23 15.79 1.4%001258.SZ*29 12 3 0.13 1.36 9.8%000862.SZ*25 10 3 0.10 1.69 5.7%601016.SH*12 5 1 0.11 15.87 0.7%603693.SH 11 4 1 0.08 5.46 1.5%601619.SH 11 4 1 0.13 8.06 1.6%*2023 2:8 华福证券 3.4 24 Wind 2021 5 23 5 23 2024 2025 90%5 28 90%2021 2024M1-4 96.90 96.80 97.30 96.10 100.00 100.00 99.90 97.70 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.20 95.40 95.60 94.30 93.20 97.50 98.30 98.90 98.50 98.50 97.90 97.60 95.60 91.10 92.90 93.20 94.00 97.60 90.00 96.70 92.80 98.00 98.50 98.00 94.10 97.10 95.20 96.00 91.70 98.10 98.20 98.60 95.40 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.80 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.90 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.90 99.90 100.00 99.40 98.30 98.20 96.80 94.60 100.00 100.00 99.00 98.80 99.00 97.40 99.70 96.50 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 97.70 95.80 96.80 95.50 95.90 93.80 95.00 92.20 89.30 92.70 94.20 92.70 97.60 98.50 97.80 98.00 92.70 95.40 95.80 94.70 100.00 100.00 100.00 96.90 100.00 99.90 99.60 99.30 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.90 99.90 99.50 99.70 99.70 99.30 99.90 99.90 100.00 99.00 2024M1-4 98.00 98.30 98.00 95.30 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.40 99.90 100.00 100.00 98.50 98.20 98.00 97.50 94.40 99.10 99.50 98.90 97.50 99.10 98.50 99.30 97.50 96.50 97.40 96.60 92.60 99.40 98.60 98.70 97.40 99.60 99.30 99.30 95.80 98.90 98.20 97.10 96.00 99.60 98.90 99.10 95.70 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.80 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.80 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.90 97.40 99.90 99.50 97.70 96.30 100.00 100.00 98.30 95.50 100.00 100.00 100.00 98.70 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.50 98.00 97.80 96.50 94.70 98.50 98.20 95.00 91.10 86.20 91.10 91.40 91.50 97.50 97.40 96.40 96.40 98.30 97.20 96.90 95.30 80.20 80.00 78.00 71.80 100.00 100.00 99.90 99.80 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.80 99.20 99.60 99.40 99.40 98.50 99.80 99.50 99.40 96.80 华福证券 回顾1H24 展望2H24 各板块展望 投资建议 风险提示目录25 华福证券 26 iFind 2024 7 9 EPS PE7 9 23A 24E 25E 23A 24E 25E600900.SH 30.31 1.11 1.38 1.47 27.23 22.00 20.69 002039.SZ 18.26 0.62 1.20 1.37 29.48 15.22 13.33 600886.SH 18.95 0.88 1.06 1.16 21.65 17.84 16.30 600025.SH 11.75 0.40 0.49 0.54 29.38 24.21 21.79 600674.SH 20.10 0.99 1.06 1.14 20.38 18.89 17.69 600642.SH 9.24 0.71 0.82 0.90 13.01 11.33 10.24 600483.SH 12.00 1.03 1.14 1.21 11.65 10.56 9.88 600027.SH 6.87 0.35 0.62 0.70 19.63 11.06 9.82 002608.SZ 7.95 0.50 0.75 0.89 15.90 10.64 8.94 600023.SH 7.63 0.49 0.61 0.66 15.57 12.59 11.55 000543.SZ 9.55 0.63 0.85 0.98 15.16 11.21 9.77 601985.SH 11.46 0.56 0.61 0.66 20.37 16.52 15.26 003816.SZ 5.04 0.21 0.24 0.25 23.77 21.19 19.98 600905.SH 4.51 0.25 0.30 0.34 17.98 15.09 13.14 001289.SZ 17.66 0.75 0.92 1.03 26.57 19.20 17.12 600032.SH 7.43 0.27 0.45 0.55 27.21 16.51 13.51 000537.SZ 8.92 0.49 0.59 0.78 18.20 15.12 11.44 华福证券 回顾1H24 展望2H24 各板块展望 投资建议 风险提示目录27 华福证券 28 华福证券 29 华福证券 612 A 300 500 6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6-20%-10%6-20%6 5%6-5%5%6-5%30 华福证券 1436 MT 20 200120 华福证券