资源描述
2009 1210 2024 07 25 10 ESRD ESRD 2012 24.8 2022 84.4/1 Frost&Sullivan 2018-2022 100 139 2/1 1972 ESRD ESRD ESRD Davita 2008 2 1 2 3 4 S0360520110002 S0360520110004%()107 0.01()11,783.58 1.43()10,029.03 1.56%1M 6M 12M-5.7%-11.5%-22.2%-4.0%-15.8%-12.0%2024-05-22 2 2024-05-05 9 Ambu 2023-12-24-22%-13%-4%6%23/07 23/10 23/12 24/02 24/05 24/072023-07-242024-07-24 300 10 2009 1210 ESRD ESRD 2012 24.8 2022 84.4/1 2/1 1972 ESRD ESRD ESRD Davita 2008 2 XVFUyRtOoNmNsMoNqNrOrQaQbP9PsQrRtRsOjMpPtMiNpMmM7NrRvMwMrQqQvPoPoP 10 2009 1210 3.6.6.8.10.11.18.21.21 Davita.24.25.27.32 10 2009 1210 4 1.6 2 CKD.6 3 ESRD.7 4 ESRD.7 5 2023 ESRD.7 6.8 7.8 8.9 9 2021/.9 10.10 11.10 12.10 13.11 14 2023.11 15.12 16 2022.12 17.12 18 2022.13 19.13 20.14 21“”.14 22.15 23.15 24.16 25.16 26.18 27.19 28.19 29/.19 30/.20 31.21 32.22 33.22 cBIOv7MzkOHnkL2nBVpNhUnPyPSCGvG90wyKf2tEx5vIJ72eInPYdc7EllQocslZ 10 2009 1210 5 34.22 35 ESRD.23 36 2011-2021.23 37 1995-2006.24 38.25 39.25 40 Davita.25 41.26 42.27 43.28 44.28 45.28 46.28 47.29 48.29 49.29 50.29 51.30 52.30 53.30 54.30 55.31 56.31 57.31 58.31 10 2009 1210 6 1 CKD CKD CKD 2/3 CKD CKD 1 PPT CKD 2035 2020 60%40%1/4 Frost&Sullivan CKD 2017-2021 CKD 6.98 7.79 3%CAGR 2030 10.29 2 CKD Frost&Sullivan 6.987.127.287.537.798.098.378.678.959.239.509.7710.0410.290.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E2017-2030E CKD 10 2009 1210 7 ESRD CKD 5 5 ESRD CKD ESRD Frost&Sullivan 2018-2022 ESRD 888 1050 CAGR 4.3%ESRD 277 385 CAGR 8.6%2022-2030 ESRD 4.2%6.1%CAGR 3 ESRD 4 ESRD Frost&Sullivan Frost&Sullivan 2 ESRD ESRD ESRD 2023 ESRD 19%5 2023 ESRD ESRD 1 88891395299810501100115212021254130513571409146102004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6002017-2030E ERSD 27730333135938541444347350253256259362101002003004005006007002017-2030E ERSD,72%,9%,19%10 2009 1210 8 2 ESRD 2023 ESRD 72%6 ESRD 1 2 ESRD 7 2012 ESRD 10 2009 1210 9 95%ESRD 2012-2022 2012 28.46 24.80 3.66 2022 84.4 CAGR 13%14.1 CAGR 14%USRDS 2021 621 3546/2174/1677/8 9 2021/USRDS 2011 31.8 2022 53.8 2012 29.9 2022 53.5 88.8 2019 80.5 23.524.828.434.038.544.752.457.963.369.375.184.43.74.45.36.27.28.79.510.311.412.614.101020304050607080902011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 354621741677101081175262105001000150020002500300035004000 10 2009 1210 10 10 11 ESRD/CRRT 12 01020304050602011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 53.8 53.588.880.50102030405060708090100 10 2009 1210 11 800 2015 119 2023 160 2015 549 2023 650 CAGR 3.8%2.1%2020-2023 13 2023 Davita 215.9 121.4 14 2023 Wind 1 Frost&Sullivan 2018-2022 549567 570 580660 660 660 670650119128 130130140 150 15016016001002003004005006007008009002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023(215.9121.444.519.912.46.03.8050100150200250 Davita 10 2009 1210 12 108 139 CAGR 6.5%2022-2030 16.9%CAGR 484 Frost&Sullivan 2022 27.6 20%51.2 37%12.3 9%15 16 2022 Frost&Sullivan Frost&Sullivan/17/2022/40%65%23 25 27 28 28 33 42 52 62 72 84 91 99 40 43 46 49 5162779210812514516719124 26 27 29 3237455463748699113131415 16 161719202224262932891112 12151822263136424901002003004005006002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E血液透析机（亿元）透析器（亿元）其他耗材（亿元）其他器械（亿元）血透管路（亿元）,20%,37%,9%,34%10 2009 1210 13 18 2022 Frost&Sullivan 2 19 10 2009 1210 14 2021 65%20%2020-2022 14%2023H1 19.9%20 2022 12 6/21 14.4%14.6%14.7%19.9%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%2020 2021 2022 2023H1 10 2009 1210 15 2019 10 2024 3 23 48%40.15%-58.08%40.01%-62.11%22%2019 10 41.54%66.86%/2020 3/2020 1 31.30%44.44%108,100 2020 12 41.14%57.00%/2021 1 35.20%66.00%1,473,088 2021 3 53.34%78.21%/2021 8 53.90%76.70%/2022 1 28.48%75%/2022 4 24.46%35.63%2,521,034 2024 3 23 48%62.11%/23/3770 2000 1000+400 2000 25 2 10 2009 1210 16 24 NIH 2022 65%1()2 25 SWS-6000 5008S Dialog iQ DBB-EXA DBB-EXA ESS D50+10 2009 1210 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 mmHg-700 800,5-100 500,7-100 500,10-300 500,10-300 500,10-600 600,10 mmHg-700 800,5-300 300,7-400+400,10-300 500,10-300 500,10-600 600,10 mmHg-700 800,5-100 400,7-100+700,10-100 500,10-100 500,10-100 600,20 ml/min 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.3ml/1L 0.3ml/1L 0.35(l 20 20 20 20 20 2001 1966 1969 1969 2010 2013 2015 2014 2021 2021 2021 2021 ml/min 0 650,10%15 600,10%30 600,10%40 600,10%40 600,10%30 500,10%ml/min 0 650,10%15 600,10%30 600,10%40 600,10%ml/min 0,100 1000,5%100 1000,5%300 800,5%300 800,10%300 800,10%300 800,10%33 40,0.5 35 39,0.5 34.5 39.5,0.5 34 40,0.5 34 40,0.5 33 40,0.5 mS/cm 12.0 18.0,0.1 12.8 15.7,0.1 12.7 15.3,0.2 12.7 15.2,0.1 12.7 15.2,0.1 12.7 15.9,0.2 ml/h 0 6000,1%0 4000,1%50 4000,1%0 4000,30 0 4000,30 50 2000,30 HDF HF HD IUF HDF HF HD IUF HDF HF HD IUF HDF HF HD IUF HD IUF HD IUF 10 2009 1210 18 2015 2025 2020-2022 2022 23.7%2020 2021 50%26 1 2012 95%2012-2019 3542 6322 8.1%3.7%0.3%13.4%20.7%53.7%60.2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2020 2021 2022 10 2009 1210 19 2012 198.4 2022 633 CAGR 12.3%27 28 7.5 2021 4.52 25.96 2020 35.66 2019 21.12 2018 12.75 29/Nippon 3511 354236374047 40894799546658116322 6377630272980100020003000400050006000700080002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022187.7198.4226.9271.8308.0357.9419.6463.5506.1519.6563.3633.201002003004005006007002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 4.5225.9635.6621.1212.750 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2021 2021 2020 2019 2018 10 2009 1210 20 2020 11.6%2021 2019 2018 90%80%69%30/2 2016 2016()1 2 95%3 2020()3 4 11.6%90%80%69%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020 2021 2019 2018 10 2009 1210 21 5 31 1 2 1972 ESRD ESRD USRDS 1980-2000 CAGR 8.0%2000 2001-2021 CAGR 1.3%10 2009 1210 22 32 USRDS 1973 68 2002 3500 1982 40%2002 76%33 34 USRDS David Gibson et al.End-stage renal disease:A profile of facilities furnishing treatment USRDS ESRD 1991-2000 ESRD 53.7 122.1 CAGR 9.6%4.4%5.6%1983 CMS 050010001500200025003000350040001973197619801981198219831990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002 40%51%53%54%55%59%59%62%65%67%72%75%76%77%76%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%198219881989199019911993199419951996199719981999200020012002 10 2009 1210 23 2011 ESRD 2011-2021 35 ESRD 36 2011-2021 USRDS CMS USRDS Davita Kevin Consolidation in the Dialysis Industry,Patient Choice,and Local Market Competition 2001-2011 54%8%Davita 2023 37%36%2666 2724 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.00ESRD ESRD 50000600007000080000900001000001100001200002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 10 2009 1210 24 37 1995-2006 USRDS 2008 2012 CMS Davita 1 1966 2023 35%8%37%2023 216 4.4%2023 79%10 2009 1210 25 38 39 Wind Wind 2 Davita Davita 2023 2675 790 2023 121 4.6%109 90%40 Davita Wind 2023 CMS 9 CMS 8 Davita ESRD-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%050100150200250 75%74%76%76%77%80%81%82%80%79%79%79%79%79%25%26%24%24%23%20%19%18%20%21%21%21%21%21%0%20%40%60%80%100%647082118128138147109114 114116 116 116121-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0204060801001201401602010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10 2009 1210 26 1 2 3 41 1 a ESRD 2012 b 2 3 a 10 2009 1210 27 b 2010-2020 c 42 USRDS 2001 CRRT 2023/CRRT 2.69pct 10.35pct 2019-2023 CAGR 48.5%2020 2023 1.95 228%2024Q1 0.00%0.05%0.10%0.15%0.20%0.25%0.30%0.35%0.40%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 10 2009 1210 28 43 44 Wind Wind 2023 5.28 2019 39%2023 76%50%2023 1.02 15%33%28%45 46 Wind Wind 1997 PTA+2023 2019-2023 CAGR 15.83%2023 2.69%20231.422.542.833.826.901.62-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1-0.340.21 0.190.591.950.34-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%-0.500.000.501.001.502.002.502019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1 39%52%60%63%76%33%25%22%20%15%26%22%17%15%7%2%1%1%1%2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-20%0%20%40%60%80%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10 2009 1210 29 2019-2023 CAGR 35.17%47 48 Wind Wind 2023 9.49 2019 62%73%2019 29%2023 34%2023 18%8%5%-49 50 Wind Wind 1993 7.229.4011.6413.3613.003.31-10%0%10%20%30%40%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1 0.621.161.561.852.070.540%20%40%60%80%100%0.000.501.001.502.002.502019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1 62%62%63%66%73%31%22%29%26%18%5%6%6%5%5%8%0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10 2009 1210 30/2023 2023 11.94 0.87%-0.65 396%2024Q1 2.67 23%0.04 87%51 52 Wind Wind 67%2020 2023 7.97 1.26%67%53 54 Wind Wind 2004 ESRD 8.2613.9610.9111.84 11.942.67-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1 0.653.460.640.22-0.650.04-600%-400%-200%0%200%400%600%-1.000.001.002.003.004.002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q1 28%56%37%32%32%71%44%62%67%67%1%1%2%2%1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10 2009 1210 31 2022 32.5%32.8%2022 34.26 18%3.15 21%2021 2019-2022 CAGR 15.88%6,000 1,000 31 55 56 Wind Wind 2022 1.58 4.79%/2022 3.14 9.53%57 58 22.0225.6529.4834.2616.8514%14%15%15%16%16%17%17%18%18%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.002019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 1.953.092.693.152.29-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.502019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 60%57%53%53%19%20%20%21%12%13%13%12%1%3%5%4%8%8%10%11%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2020 2021 2022 2023H1 10 2009 1210 32 1 2 3 4 10 2009 1210 33 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2023 2021 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2024 10 2009 1210 34 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-25072549 10 2009 1210 35 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
展开阅读全文