资源描述
2024 7 11 S1060523110001 S1060524070002 2 1-2010-/NPI-2-/-NPI 2023 2024 5 4 2024 1-5 28%MHP 1.2.3.YWDWyRmRtQmNpRsRqNrOnM9PcM8OoMoOsQqMfQoOqPiNmNuNaQqQvNwMmRmQwMrRuMCONTENT-4010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0002008-012009-012010-012011-012012-012013-012014-012015-012016-012017-012018-012019-012020-012021-012022-012023-012024-01/():LME3():LME3 2008-2021-2021-2023 2023-1.1 2008-2008-2021-2021-2023-2023-Wind LMEfASpTqqgd/0zkeHwvIUWj0nPyPSCGvG90wyKf2tEx5uIRYTsZag1t85CI5/LO+ad 5 1.2 SMM 2010-/NPI-/-MHP MSPFeniNPI HPAL CONTENT-7 2.1 40%60%2022 330 160 49%33 10%SMM-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%05000001000000150000020000002500000300000035000002010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022:2022,3.3%,6.7%,3.9%,48.5%,4.8%,10.0%,22.7%8 2.2 2020 95%2020 2023 4481.81 86%99%1 2 3 SMM-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%010002000300040005000600070002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 9 2.3 2023 NPI 50%11%-25%2023 67%2023 13%15%2023 SMM 2023,25%feni,12%NPI,11%NPI,39%,11%,2%+,53.8%,13.0%,13.0%,13.2%,3.6%,3.4%10 2.4 2024 RKAB SMM 2014 65 6%2014 2009 20111 2014 2017 1.7%5 30%2022 1 2019 2022 2020 1 1.7%20201 1 2021ESDM 2(FeNi)(NPI)70%2024 RKAB 2022ESDM LME*0.8*CONTENT-12-3.1/-MSP/MHP 2023 MHP MSP 80%20%SMM,0.4%,20.9%,78.8%RKEF 13-3.2-MHP-SMM 90%-95%0%70-85%20%88-92%88%-90%75%-80%40%-60%14-3.3 2021 2023 118 60%2023 81 68%2-3/MHP 2 2024E 4 2024E MHP 6.7 2024EPTDOWSTONEENERGYMATERIALINDONESIAS 2 2025EMMP-2.78 2025E MHP 12 2025 H1PTJIAMANMEINEWENERGY 5 2025H1 MHP 6.7 2025 MHP 6 2025+Indigo 4 2025 PTJiamandaNewEnergy 4 2025 E MHP 6.7 2025 E MHP 6.7 2025 E2024-2025 SMM 0204060801001201402016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 15-MHP 3.4 30%1 0.8%-1.3%1.5%-3%2 MHP MHP SMM 0102030405060702023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04%MHP-40-30-20-10010203040502021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-012024-05%MHP-16,77.3%,22.7%-3.5 2023 54.68 13.3%42.3 77%HPAL 2023 02468101214162022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1 0500001000001500002000002500002021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-03 17-3.6 CR5 58.7%2023 MHP+64.5/+30.5/MHP 2023 15/2030 20/2030 50/2023+19.5/2023 40/,19.6%,13.0%,9.8%,9.8%,6.5%,4.9%,36.4%CONTENT-19-4.1 2008 2010 NPI RKEF SMM 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023,1.46%NPI,77.20%Feni,8.22%,12.93%2023 300 20feni NPI NPI0501001502002502019 2020 2021 2022 2023 NPI feni-NPI FeNi 4.2-FeNi NPI NPI 15%FeNi 15%NPI FeNi 2023 42 NPI FeNi 2023 NPI 174 FeNi 42 2019 2023 NPI 16%FeNi NPI NPI FeNi Vale Glencore SMSP AngloAmerican 2023 NPI FeNi SMM 21-NPI 4.3 NPI NPI 2019 NPI 39%2023 77%WedaBay Morowali 2022 2023 33 2023 108 RKEF Morowali 52 RKEF WedaBay 56 RKEF NPI NPI SMM 0204060801001201401601802002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 NPI NPI 2022 2023 1-IMIP 45 522-IWIP 48 563 15 154 32 325 17 236 4 47 4 48 0 09 Indoferro 3 410 8 1211 2 412 2 413 1 214 PT.Cahaya 1 115+2 8 184 21722200,30.1%300,51.2%400,18.7%-4.4 2023 5900 6.8%63%2017-2023 CAGR 6.2%300 2023 405 ifind SMM 0100002000030000400005000060000700002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 051015202530354045500501001502002503003502018/012018/072019/012019/072020/012020/072021/012021/072022/012022/072023/012023/072024/01 23,82.2%,17.8%,98.2%,1.0%,0.6%,0.2%-4.5 2023 82%2023 115 75%2023 SMM 0204060801001201401601802020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1-4 24-4.6 2023 2022 70%2024 Q1 65%2023 2024 RKEF SMM 50.0%55.0%60.0%65.0%70.0%75.0%80.0%024681012141618202022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-05 CONTENT-26-5.1 2023 949.5 37.9%2024 2023 387.7Gwh 31.6%2024 1-5 160.5Gwh 34.6%Wind-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%010020030040050060070080090010002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0501001502002503003504004502020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1-5Gwh 0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%020040060080010001200140016002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 27-5.2 2022 2023 2024 5 4 2024 1-5 28%SMM 02468101223-0123-0223-0323-0423-0523-0623-0723-0823-0923-1023-1123-1224-0124-0224-0324-0424-05/-40-2002040608010012014001000020000300004000050000600007000021-0121-0321-0521-0721-0921-1122-0122-0322-0522-0722-0922-1123-0123-0323-0523-0723-0923-1124-0124-0324-05(%)02040608010012014023-0123-0223-0323-0423-0523-0623-0723-0823-0923-1023-1123-1224-0124-0224-0324-0424-05Gwh/28-5.3 2023 2022 0.23/Wh 2023 2024 0.05/Wh SMM ifind 0.000.200.400.600.801.001.202021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-012024-04/Wh()()01000020000300004000050000600000.000.200.400.600.801.001.202022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-05/Wh()29-5.4 2023 23.3%23.7%15.5%14.3%11%7%SMM SMM,15.5%,14.3%,11.3%,6.9%,5.0%,23.7%,23.3%2023 050010001500200025003000350040002021 2022 2023 2024 30-5.5 2016 2017 2020 2021 Wind 8,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,000-30-20-10010203040502014-022014-082015-022015-082016-022016-082017-022017-082018-022018-082019-022019-082020-022020-082021-022021-082022-022022-082023-022023-082024-02/%:(304/2B,2.0*1219mm):31-5.6 40%-60%30%-40%10%,40%-60%30%-40%20%-80%50%-80%40%95%SMM 32,55%,20%,10%,15%-5.7 2024 42.5 53%6.2%55%20%10%2023 Roskill SMM-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.02.04.06.08.010.012.02022 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q42023 Q12023 Q22023 Q32023 Q4 CONTENT-34 6.1 2023 21-SMM-80,000-60,000-40,000-20,000020,00040,00060,0002021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-042024-06/-1400-1200-1000-800-600-400-20002004002021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-05/35 MHP 6.2 2023 MHP MHP MHP SMM-20-15-10-5051015202530352023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-06(%)(%)MHP(%)MHP 1000001100001200001300001400001500001600002023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04/MHP 01020304050607080902023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04%MHP 36 6.3 2024 10%2024 20%8%SMM 2024Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2025Q1 2025Q2 24.09 22.98 24.11 25.46 25.33 26.65NPI 43.59 43.62 50.12 50.67 49.99 53.16Feni 9.5 9.8 11.2 10 9.5 10.3 9.46 10.25 10.97 11.26 10.7 12.24 1.84 1.84 1.84 1.79 1.84 1.84 88.48 88.49 98.24 99.18 97.36 104.19 57.34 60.21 61.55 64.38 60.84 64.62 11.46 11.08 11.95 12.46 11.55 12.62 12.52 13.34 13.51 13.57 12.89 13.07 5.8 5.97 5.74 6.07 5.68 6.43 87.12 90.6 92.75 96.48 90.96 96.74 1.36-2.11 5.49 2.7 6.4 7.4537 6.4 2023 MHP MHP MHP 23 1 2 CONTENT-397.1 2018 6/MHP 4.5/12/MHP 22.5 SCM-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,0002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 407.2+RKEF/MHP-2023 40/2.5/20/19.5 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%0501001502002503003504002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%50%100%150%200%250%300%05101520252018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 417.3+3C 2023 12.3 15-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0501001502002503003502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-100%-50%0%50%100%150%024681012142017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 CONTENT-438.1 股票名称 股票代码股票价格（元）EPS(元/股）P/E（倍）评级2024/07/11 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E华友钴业 603799.SH24.33 1.96 2.26 3.37 4.2012.4 10.8 7.2 5.8 推荐中伟股份 300919.SZ29.23 2.91 2.40 2.90 3.3616.9 12.2 10.1 8.7 未评级格林美 002340.SZ6.46 0.18 0.28 0.37 0.5130.0 23.4 17.3 12.7 未评级 Wind wind 448.21 2 3 45:6 20%6 10%20%6 10%6 10%:6 5%6 5%6 5%2024
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