资源描述
|2024 07 28 2024 7 26 81.13/1.5/-1.82%WTI 77.16/2.97/-3.71%LNG 12.26/0.14/+1.2%TTF 32.60/0.40/+1.2%HH 2.01/0.12/-5.7%ARA 6000K 112.8/4.2/+3.9%6000K FOB 134.8/0.3/-0.2%IPE 107.9/2.3/+2.1%2023 8 20212022 2023 5 24Q1 H/24 24Q2 S0680520070001 S0680122080010 1 2024-07-24 2 IEA 2024 2024-07-23 3 2024-07-22 EPS P E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 601918.SH 0.81 0.93 1.02 1.19 10.85 9.45 8.62 7.39 601001.SH 1.97 2.10 2.24 2.36 7.50 7.04 6.60 6.26 601088.SH 3.00 3.05 3.05 3.14 13.60 13.38 13.38 12.99 601225.SH 2.19 2.13 2.30 2.41 10.85 11.15 10.33 9.86 601666.SH 1.62 1.54 1.78 1.99 6.13 6.45 5.58 4.99 600985.SH 2.31 2.36 2.43 2.57 6.19 6.06 5.89 5.57 600188.SH 2.71 2.73 2.81 2.94 5.50 5.46 5.30 5.07 600348.SH 1.44 1.03 1.19 1.25 4.94 6.91 5.98 5.70 Wind-32%-16%0%16%32%48%2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 300 2024 07 28 P.2 1.4 2.5 3.7 4.8 5.9 6.11.11 1/.4 2 WTI/.4 3/.4 4 OPEC+/.4 5 TTF/.5 6 HH/.5 7 LNG/.5 8/.5 9%.6 10 TWh.6 11 bcf/d.6 12 bcf.6 13 bcf.6 14.6 15 6000K/.7 16 IPE/.7 17 ARA 6000K/.7 18/.7 19.8 20.8 21.8 22.8 23.8 24.8 25.9 26.9 27.9 28.9 29.9 30.9 31.10 32.10 33.10 34.10 WUBYwPsPnOpOsMoNqNsNmN9PaOaQpNnNmOqMfQrRyQkPqQmOaQqQwPNZmPqOuOmNvM 2024 07 28 P.3 35.11 2024 07 28 P.4 1.1/2 WTI/Wind Wind 3/2024/7/26 VS T-1 VS T-7 VS T-30 VS 2023/7/26 81.13-1.24-1.50-4.12-3.11 WTI 77.16-1.12-2.97-3.74-2.93 Wind 4 OPEC+/Apr 2024 Supply May 2024 Supply May Prod vs Target May-2024 Implied Target Sustainable Capacity Algeria 0.91 0.9-0.01 0.91 0.99 Congo 0.26 0.26-0.02 0.28 0.27 Equatorial Guinea 0.05 0.06-0.01 0.07 0.06 Gabon 0.21 0.22 0.05 0.17 0.22 Iraq 4.24 4.28 0.28 4 4.87 Kuwait 2.49 2.49 0.08 2.41 2.88 Nigeria 1.28 1.35-0.15 1.5 1.42 Saudi Arabia 9.03 9.03 0.05 8.98 12.11 UAE 3.23 3.25 0.34 2.91 4.28 Total OPEC-94 21.7 21.84 0.6 21.22 27.1 Iran5 3.35 3.31 3.8 Libya5 1.19 1.19 1.23 Venezuela5 0.86 0.88 0.87 Total OPEC 27.1 27.22 33 Total Non-OPEC 14.44 14.3 0.01 12.7 15.17 OPEC+18 in Nov 2022 deal5 34.59 34.55 0.63 33.92 40.67 Total OPEC+41.54 41.52 48.17 IEA cOCIv82lH0UZD2naLf4gcvC4iNkD3XJlIbfvIKRvuXIMu5RwXnO8PgURTR5Ip5jP 2024 07 28 P.5 2.5 TTF/6 HH/8/2024/7/26 VS T-1 VS T-7 VS T-30 VS 2023/7/26 TTF 32.60 0.65 0.40-1.60 4.10 HH 2.01-0.04-0.12-0.62-0.49 LNG 12.26 0.22 0.14 0.38 0.69 7 LNG/2024 07 28 P.6 9%10 TWh 11 bcf/d 12 bcf 13 bcf 14 2024 07 28 P.7 3.15 6000K/16 IPE/wind 18/2024/7/26 VS T-7 VS T-30 VS 2023/7/26 6000K 134.8-0.3 1.8 0.8 IPE 107.9 2.3 0.8 13.3 ARA 6000K 112.8 4.2 7.1 14.5 Wind 17 ARA 6000K/2024 07 28 P.8 4.19 20 21 22 23 24 2024 07 28 P.9 5.25 26 27 28 29 30 2024 07 28 P.10 31 32 33 34 2024 07 28 P.11 6.35 2024/7/25 7 25 7 24 430 19 29 170 2024/7/24 7 24 7 23 2024 LNG 2023 6840/10.7/LNG 41.6%2.2 2024/7/24 2025 10.8 2024 07 28 P.12“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%8 7 7 100077 555 22 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033
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