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+2024 S1190522080001 S1190524010001 S1190523030002 S11901220900072024 8 6 1.2025 2.BC BC BC 2025 HJT HBC 3.2024 2-3 2025 4.1 TCL 2 XBC 3 5.YWEVuNqNoNoPpRoNqNsNqR6MbP9PsQnNnPtPlOmMuMiNmNoM8OnNuNwMsQvMNZmNqQ Contents2233 44 55 11 1.1 IEA 2050 50%70%IEA EMBER TWh 0%20%40%60%80%100%IEA EMBER/lXb6FUnXgTvZjT6l01azPC4iNkD3XJlIbfvIKRvuXJchQ91sYnmAIiOpWJTWrTC 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%01002003004005006007008009002010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024E 2026E YoY-531 1.2+2024 2024-2026 500/600/768GW 19%/20%/28%2025 BNEF CPIA 1.2 2024-2026 252/302/390GW 16.35%/19.56%/29.13%2024 102.48GW 49.60GW+32.41%52.88GW+29.09%2024H2 CPIA 2024-2026 2022-2024-60.00%-40.00%-20.00%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%120.00%140.00%160.00%0.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00400.00450.00 GW YoY-0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%120.00%140.00%160.00%180.00%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.00100.002022Q1 2023Q1 2024Q1 GW YoY-CPIA 1.2 2024 1-6 22.7GW/62.9GWh+80.8%/94.2%2 2024 6 0.62/Wh 24%2024 2023 3.12h 4.16h 27%41%0.44 0.63 2-25.00%-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.802022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-06平均报价 环比-100.00%-50.00%0.00%50.00%100.00%150.00%200.00%250.00%300.00%350.00%400.00%0.02000.04000.06000.08000.010000.012000.014000.016000.0功率（MW）容量(MWh)功率环比 容量环比 1.2 2024 2024 6 SEIA 2024 H1 2024 40GW 100%2050 1.2 2024 2024H1 2024H1 4.2GW+234.7%24Q1 252MWh 121.4%EIA 1MW MWh WoodMac 2024-100%-50%0%50%100%150%050100150200250300工商储 户储 工商储同比 户储同比-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%1200%1400%1600%020040060080010001200140016001 月 2 月 3 月 4 月 5 月 6 月 7 月 8 月 9 月 10月 11月 12月2022年 2023 年 2024年2022年同比 2023 年同比 2024年同比 1.2 2024 2024-2026 80/90/110GW 12.36%/12.50%/22.22%2023 2024 2030 40%SolarPowerEurope IEA statista SolarPowerEurope 1.2 1 10 2024 Infolink Infolink 1.3 5 6:-SMM SMM 1.3 2024 TOPCon:PVInfoLink PVInfolink 0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.002023/1/4 2023/5/4 2023/9/4 2024/1/4 2024/5/4 2024/9/4 2025/1/4 2025/5/4-1 8 2 m m/1 5 0 m/-2 1 0 m m/1 5 0 m/0.000.200.400.600.801.001.202023/1/4 2023/5/4 2023/9/4 2024/1/4 2024/5/4 2024/9/4 2025/1/4 2025/5/4 PERC-182mm/23%+/W PERC-210mm/23%+/W 1.3 2023 TOPCon 2017-2019 A TOPCon CR3 5 10 CPIA/GW/GW/GW/GW/GW/GW 11.6 9.48%14.2 10.29%23.4 14.37%38.5 17.53%46.76 15.59%晶科 78.52 16.78%8.8 7.19%10.3 7.46%18.8 11.55%24.8 11.29%44.33 14.78%隆基 67.52 14.43%8.1 6.62%9.7 7.03%15.9 9.76%25.5 11.61%43.09 14.36%65.21 13.93%7.2 5.88%9 6.52%15.9 9.76%22.2 10.11%39.75 13.25%57.09 12.20%6.4 5.23%8.5 6.16%11.3 6.94%14.5 6.60%21.10 7.03%31.11 6.65%5.6 4.58%7.3 5.29%9 5.53%8.1 3.69%16.00 5.33%30.70 6.56%4.8 3.92%7 5.07%7.5 4.61%First Solar 7.7 3.51%13.50 4.50%28.00 5.98%4.1 3.35%First Solar 5.5 3.99%First Solar 5.5 3.38%7.3 3.32%First Solar 9.30 3.10%18.99 4.06%3.4 2.78%4.8 3.48%5.2 3.19%6.8 3.10%7.94 2.65%18.00 3.85%2.9 2.37%4 2.90%3.7 2.27%6.3 2.87%Q cells 7.90 2.63%16.42 3.51%102 115 135.7 183 250 390 3 28.5 23.28%3 34.2 24.78%3 58.1 35.68%3 88.8 40.44%3 134.18 44.73%3 211.25 45.14%5 42.1 34.40%5 51.7 37.46%5 85.3 52.38%5 125.5 57.15%5 195.03 65.01%5 299.454 63.99%10 62.9 51.39%10 80.3 58.19%10 116.2 71.36%10 161.7 73.63%10 249.67 83.22%10 411.564 87.94%2023A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A Contents2233 44 55 11 2.1 2023 17.3%2022 10 pcts 2023 27%2023 4 35.9/2023 18 N 901A 90%2024-30%-77%-57%-27%-57%2.2 BC:BC BC 2025 70GWHPBC HPBC2.0 26.6%660W 2024-2025 2025 TOPCon HPBC2.0 TOPCon ABC 34.00 ABC 17.50 17.50 0.20 LD-BC BC BC TBC IBC BC BC HBC HJT TOPCon 2024 2024 HJT 2024 110 NBB 2024 2024 30%2024 2024 0BB TOPCon 0BB HJT HJT TOPCon 2024 2.2 HJT 电池企业 2022H2 2023H1 2023H2 2024H1安徽华晟 2.70 5.10 11.70 16.50东方日升 0.00 1.80 5.20 5.20琏升光伏 0.00 0.00 3.80 3.80金刚光伏 1.20 3.00 3.00 3.00浙江爱康 0.60 0.60 1.80 2.40中建材 0.00 0.00 2.40 2.40浙江润每 0.00 0.00 1.80 1.80国晟 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.20安微光势能 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20上海电气 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20广东明阳 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00通威 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00鸿钧 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00国电投 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.60合计 5.50 12.50 32.80 42.30 2021年以来HJT电池片产能（单位：GW）2.2+GW 2024 GW:27.34%2050 cm2,26.36%1.71 m2 1m*2m IEC 61215 IEC 61730 GW 2.4 1.2 1GW 2024 7906cm 15%,17.45%/30.1%0.0493 cm2 28.2%1.038 cm2 24.5%20.25 cm2 2024 30cm*40cm GW 600438/HJT 33.08%000821 2024 4 PVDALD 300724RPD PVD PAR CVD MW GW 24 2024 6 600586 TCO TCO 688025 2024 2 1mx2m P1/P2/P3 150 Contents2233 44 55 11 3.1 320/350KW 350kW+600W+1500V 385kW 350kW 320kW 5000W 0.3-2kW 3.2 2023-2024Q1 2024 Q1/122%/63%/5%297%/456%/34%2023-2024Q1-60.00%-40.00%-20.00%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%120.00%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.002023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1%-100.00%-50.00%0.00%50.00%100.00%150.00%200.00%250.00%300.00%350.00%0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.802.002023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1%3.3 2023 2023Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 7.42%9.12%9.05%7.06%2024 3 EVA 2024-300.00%-200.00%-100.00%0.00%100.00%200.00%300.00%400.00%500.00%600.00%700.00%800.00%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.002023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1%-30.00%-25.00%-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.002023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1%3.4 2024Q1 2023 12.12 1.94 3 2024 3.5+22%+10%2026 2024-50.00%0.00%50.00%100.00%150.00%200.00%250.00%300.00%350.00%400.00%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.0010.002023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1%-30.00%-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.002023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1%Contents2233 44 55 11 ifind ifind 1 2024 2025 2 XBC 3 2024/8/5 2024E 2025E 2026E 2024E 2025E 2026E300274.SZ 67.1700 7.28 8.44 9.44 9.23 7.96 7.12601012.SH 14.0900 0.56 0.85 1.15 25.25 16.49 12.24688223.SH 6.9500 0.47 0.62 0.80 14.79 11.21 8.69600438.SH 18.2700 0.86 1.51 2.10 21.30 12.10 8.71002459.SZ 10.2600 0.92 1.45 1.95 11.10 7.06 5.27688599.SH 16.6000 2.18 2.90 3.49 7.60 5.72 4.75688472.SH 9.2400 0.99 1.30 1.69 9.33 7.11 5.47002129.SZ 8.2500 0.53 0.77 0.95 15.53 10.73 8.69603806.SH 14.6400 1.41 1.75 2.12 10.38 8.37 6.91601865.SH 17.2900 1.63 2.12 2.54 10.61 8.15 6.81605117.SH 93.2200 5.53 6.70 8.28 16.86 13.91 11.26 EPS PE Contents2233 44 55 11 1 2 3 1 6 300 5%6 300 5%5%6 300 5%2 6 300 15%6 300 5%15%6 300-5%5%6 300-5%-15%100044 D 95397 太平洋证券股份有限公司具有证券投资咨询业务资格，公司统一社会信用代码为：91530000757165982D。本报告信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。负责准备本报告以及撰写本报告的所有研究分析师或工作人员在此保证，本研究报告中关于任何发行商或证券所发表的观点均如实反映分析人员的个人观点。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述证券买卖的出价或询价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。我公司或关联机构可能会持有报告中所提到的公司所发行的证券头寸并进行交易，还可能为这些公司提供或争取提供投资银行业务服务。本报告版权归太平洋证券股份有限公司所有，未经书面许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、刊登。任何人使用本报告，视为同意以上声明。期待与您 合作！THANKSFORWATCHING2018.12
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