20240808_华创证券_出版行业深度研究报告：出版系列之红利篇从筹码结构、商业模式、股息率估值视角看传媒稀缺红利_30页.pdf

2024 08 08&-22%-10%1%13%23/08 23/10 23/12 24/03 24/05 24/082023-08-072024-08-06 300 WUFUuNmRmPmNrPoNmRpQoP8ObPbRsQmMnPtPeRoOwOfQmNoMbRoOvMxNsOsPvPnPsM&.6.&.12.26.27 .A2VR2tDnCfUjRvz+UhsqXPC4iNkD3XJlIbfvIKRvuXIardeSo7e0NdvbZkAYOjz5.&1&24 1 2015 PE TTM wind 18 1 2018-2020 7 2 2020 7-2022 3 2023 AI 4 2024 0.000010.000020.000030.000040.000050.000060.000070.00002015-01-05 2016-01-05 2017-01-05 2018-01-05 2019-01-05 2020-01-05 PE(TTM)2 2018%wind 1 2 3 3 2023-2024 AIGC%4 2024%wind 23 wind 24 2-0.2-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.92023-01-032023-02-032023-03-032023-04-032023-05-032023-06-032023-07-032023-08-032023-09-032023-10-032023-11-032023-12-032024-01-032024-02-032024-03-032024-04-032024-05-032024-06-032024-07-03 AIGC-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2024-01-022024-01-162024-01-302024-02-132024-02-272024-03-122024-03-262024-04-092024-04-232024-05-072024-05-212024-06-042024-06-182024-07-022024-07-162024-07-30 5 2023-2024-%6 2024-%wind 23 wind 24&1 23Q4 7%wind 2024/8/2 23Q4-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2023-01-032023-02-032023-03-032023-04-032023-05-032023-06-032023-07-032023-08-032023-09-032023-10-032023-11-032023-12-032024-01-032024-02-032024-03-032024-04-032024-05-032024-06-032024-07-03-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2024-01-022024-01-162024-01-302024-02-132024-02-272024-03-122024-03-262024-04-092024-04-232024-05-072024-05-212024-06-042024-06-182024-07-022024-07-162024-07-30 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0.000020.000040.000060.000080.0000100.0000120.0000中文在线中文传媒中南传媒凤凰传媒山东出版长江传媒南方传媒浙版传媒中原传媒皖新传媒中国科传中国出版新华传媒时代出版城市传媒华闻集团天舟文化新华文轩果麦文化世纪天鸿龙版传媒中信出版粤传媒新经典读者传媒荣信文化内蒙新华出版传媒读客文化自由 流通 市值（亿元）自 由 流通股 占总股 本比例（%）8 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 24Q2-0.030%0.013%0.001%0.004%0.009%0.003%0.002%0.003%0.003%0.004%-0.007%0.008%-0.000%-0.001%0.004%0.007%0.021%0.017%0.025%0.021%0.013%0.011%0.010%0.001%0.006%0.005%-0.003%0.004%0.000%0.001%-0.003%0.002%0.021%0.017%0.027%0.028%0.030%0.003%0.012%0.000%0.003%0.002%0.001%-0.000%-0.002%0.001%0.005%0.001%-0.002%-0.001%0.002%0.002%0.001%-0.003%0.004%0.006%0.000%0.001%0.001%0.002%0.001%-0.003%0.004%0.004%0.016%0.010%0.001%0.000%0.001%0.001%0.000%-0.000%0.002%0.014%0.015%0.002%0.013%0.001%0.000%0.000%0.000%0.000%0.000%-0.001%0.003%0.000%-0.000%0.000%-0.001%-0.011%0.019%0.003%0.011%0.010%0.000%0.047%0.038%0.061%0.064%0.077%0.093%0.069%0.022%0.060%0.039%0.043%0.035%0.058%0.060%0.059%0.074%0.064%0.009%0.038%0.028%wind 2024 7 21 23Q4 9 22Q4-24Q1%22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.01%0.00%2.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.91%0.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.99%0.00%1.18%2.92%3.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.09%1.39%1.30%0.00%1.85%2.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.04%1.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.24%6.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%3.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.25%2.13%2.55%0.00%0.00%2.91%2.91%2.91%17.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%11.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%average 0.07%0.19%0.15%0.18%0.48%1.81%wind 2 18-20 10 2015-2023%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 30.09 30.96 31.98 40.35 37.49 43.08 39.86 39.34 43.75 20.15 27.36 26.57 34.84 34.58 34.19 34.63 37.67 30.94 10.42 12.76 37.97 42.26 39.27 41.28 45.09 52.65 53.66 30.12 0.00 70.43 27.92 0.00 30.12 38.96 35.17 43.63 11.81 10.25 19.79 24.85 30.87 52.02 64.38 53.25 47.79 30.73 30.22 34.82 33.01 35.55 0.00 31.28 0.00 37.54 30.73 49.76 71.21 88.50 87.29 78.74 77.04 77.01 53.26 30.62 30.06 30.28 32.03 57.14 51.86 52.86 51.99 63.81 28.25 30.01 30.01 30.08 30.55 36.52 36.01 43.94 37.10 30.72 34.18 30.61 31.19 30.29 30.18 30.47 30.15 30.51 30.23 21.06 30.10 34.17 30.46 30.66 30.39 30.70 30.47 45.28 32.63 32.74 57.62 56.82 63.80 51.79 61.12 43.11-114.34 40.07 39.71 32.50 30.29 30.23 30.04 45.32-33.64 40.76 43.25 47.65 47.65 48.43 49.19-10.03 10.23 10.32-53.99 55.02 57.43-10.06 19.80 50.53 11.17 10.57 10.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.20 25.55 109.26 22.22 62.15 81.44 0.00 9.59 12.01 9.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.68 32.50 14.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-29.76 30.82 31.25 46.51 45.87 47.60 42.97-31.56 32.36 39.98 53.08 0.00-49.96 69.37 0.00-13.33 13.06 13.43-57.68 42.11-9.32 37.91 20.11 32.29 43.15 41.28 46.89 40.04-30.22 30.30 30.08 30.01 30.14 30.24 0.00-31.61 34.78 33.71 42.23 45.44 72.76 92.55 86.76 27.43 32.59 37.16 39.81 39.00 40.74 40.28 39.79 42.85 22.35 27.35 31.76 31.72 35.77 34.35 37.15 40.29 35.67 wind 11 2015-2023%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0.56 1.05 1.95 2.98 2.82 2.23 2.24 2.83 3.58 0.88 1.56 1.99 3.18 3.91 4.55 4.39 4.73 4.32 0.34 0.59 2.36 3.84 3.67 5.45 5.50 7.84 5.92 1.03 0.00 3.56 2.20 0.00 2.27 3.63 2.46 4.59 0.29 0.60 1.44 2.30 3.25 6.62 6.92 5.61 5.37 0.14 0.16 0.24 0.20 0.12 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.29 1.21 3.00 4.32 4.88 5.19 6.61 6.79 6.01 5.41 0.80 0.91 1.61 2.62 2.92 3.37 3.28 3.55 4.39 0.00 0.99 1.76 2.61 2.70 3.74 3.86 5.66 4.16 0.22 0.34 0.52 0.48 0.46 0.71 0.82 0.77 0.76 0.35 0.42 1.19 2.17 1.38 1.43 0.86 0.64 0.83 1.26 1.43 1.85 3.78 3.94 6.32 6.18 6.31 5.68 0.00 2.70 2.23 3.22 2.27 3.41 3.53 3.43 4.25 0.00 0.00 1.71 3.71 4.60 5.66 5.69 6.21 5.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.68 1.11 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.32 4.73 5.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 1.36 2.90 0.30 0.40 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.33 1.41 1.38 1.05 0.49 1.17 0.23 0.22 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.10 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.50 0.67 0.91 0.79 0.79 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.82 1.13 1.72 1.74 1.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.39 1.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.29 0.33 0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.76 0.20 0.00 0.00 1.65 1.24 1.73 2.68 2.88 2.57 1.05 0.00 0.00 1.17 2.28 1.83 2.16 2.21 2.16 1.89 0.00 0.00 0.89 0.97 1.36 1.44 2.03 4.02 4.57 0.42 0.81 1.57 2.25 2.19 3.08 3.42 3.72 3.76 0.26 0.50 1.08 1.50 1.55 2.14 2.40 2.66 2.57 wind&1 12 1 2 13/30 5 3 3 5000 70%/14 2 a)6-18 2024 2006-2018 11-17 06-18 12.7%15 16%17 wind excel b)+18+e.g.:C 16 162018201826302805101520253035 +2017+19 yoy%wind c)=*-20/21/wind wind 010203020052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021/01020304050 22%3&1 2 23 24 2018-2020 出版侧，纸张价格长周期 内稳定性高。64.34%61.99%59.31%85.07%84.45%83.69%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%2018 2019 2020 27%36%53%41%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%52.99%53.12%52.44%59.60%59.64%58.39%48.00%50.00%52.00%54.00%56.00%58.00%60.00%62.00%2018 2019 2020 25/26/10%27 19-23 28 19-23&wind wind 1 1 010002000300040005000600070008000/0100020003000400050006000700080009000/-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2 29 2023()71%2 64%77%1 57%56%2 54%61%2 53%66%3 51%80%4 49%56%1 48%50%11 45%56%1 44%62%2 44%63%5 43%28%52 38%62%6 37%70%2 31%58%1 31%58%1 10%68%8 30%wind+30%2020/12/31 2021/12/31 2022/12/31 2023/12/31 2020/12/31 2021/12/31 2022/12/31 2023/12/31 4.99 9.47 3.69 0.60 36%62%22%3%0.24 0.55 0.16 0.19 10%20%5%5%0.11 0.69 0.23 0.05 14%81%27%5%0.42 0.57 0.28 0.36 16%16%8%7%1.00 1.91 0.82 0.79 12%27%11%8%1.52 1.02 1.49 2.12 8%5%8%11%2.44 2.70 1.75 1.74 19%21%13%11%-1.41 0.36 0.16 0.14-92%34%22%12%1.79 2.42 1.60 2.21 16%18%11%15%5.17 8.10 5.92 4.45 32%33%28%15%0.23 0.57 0.78 0.68 13%13%16%20%2.78 0.86 1.82 0.75 139%38%68%24%-0.44 3.31 4.24 5.43-3%22%30%29%1.24 1.53 0.61 2.85 20%24%9%30%4.25 6.61 5.77 5.20 46%68%56%37%3.33 4.56 2.71 5.76 44%56%29%45%Average 1.73 2.83 2.00 2.08 21%34%23%17%wind 1 2 31 2015-2023 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 10 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 1 0 2 1 0 1 2 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9-1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 7-1 1 1 3-1 1 1 3-1 1 1 3 27.43 32.59 37.16 39.81 39.00 40.74 40.28 39.79 42.85 0.42 0.81 1.57 2.25 2.19 3.08 3.42 3.72 3.76 wind 2 32%2023 33%2023 wind wind 34%/%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 26.06 23.27 27.70 18.04 20.84 19.56 26%29%27%51%49%54%12.69 30.86 9.18-4.54 20.27 19.30 86%36%123%-257%53%51%4.85 13.06 23.12 19.69 22.21 13.91 36%35%62%9.93 13.64 18.19 20.47 20.24 23.53 37%27%21%19%21%30%15.17 16.90 18.15 25.57 21.45 24.22 40%40%37%29%38%48%5.89 11.43 8.40 8.90 17.25 7.90 59%28%38%38%21%76%2.85 4.74 4.82 3.34 6.22 3.27 32%0%17%42%19%74%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%051015202530出版 广电 游戏 影视院线 广告营销现金及现金等价物（亿元）占总资产比例020406080100120140中文传媒中南传媒浙版传媒新华文轩山东出版皖新传媒时代出版凤凰传媒南方传媒龙版传媒中原传媒内蒙新华长江传媒城市传媒出版传媒新华传媒读者传媒 21.88 23.89 35.98 33.21 25.07 26.03 35%32%28%38%51%49%4.73 8.62 7.81 12.57 24.25 15.87 42%26%36%23%17%30%1.61 2.16 2.45 2.87 3.55 3.90 16%14%9%7.18 8.05 16.59 15.85 15.99 21.90 36%36%19%21%24%20%2.71 2.11 3.73 3.72 3.84 5.31 6%14%30%4.79 8.49 6.13 9.94 10.67 11.86 38%29%69%45%36%41%3.27 2.75 3.16 4.45 3.38 3.57 43%51%33%25%39%50%-0.97 1.77 1.47 1.36 1.26 2.36-63%26%32%24%18%14%5.40-9.95 3.66 5.26 2.44 1.87 2%-1%0%2%0%7%0.94-0.37 0.94 1.51 0.98 1.95 14%-53%24%17%26%15%wind 35%2023 36%2023 wind wind 1 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0.002.004.006.008.0010.00广电 游戏 影视院线 出版 广告营销长期股权投资 长投%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%02468101214游戏 影视院线 广告营销 广电 出版商誉 占总资产 比例 37%2023 38%2023Q3 wind wind 39%2023 40%2023 wind wind ROE 01020304050影 视院线 广电 广 告营销 游戏 出版资产负债率（%）05101520253035404550南方传媒内蒙新华浙版传媒新华传媒出版传媒新华文轩凤凰传媒时代出版中原传媒皖新传媒中文传媒中南传媒山东出版龙版传媒长江传媒城市传媒读者传媒资产负债率（%）0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%02468101214游戏 影视院线 广告营销 广电 出版商誉 占总资产 比例0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%051015202530中文传媒新华文轩凤凰传媒中南传媒皖新传媒南方传媒中原传媒城市传媒时代出版长江传媒新华传媒山东出版浙版传媒出版传媒内蒙新华读者传媒龙版传媒商誉（亿 元）占总资产 比例 41 2013-2023 ROE 42 2023 ROE wind wind 2 43 PE 2023 PE TTM wind 2024/8/6 0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.002014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 ROE0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%1=/=*/44 2+45-%2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023 4.24%5.25%5.79%6.01%18.06 20.43 19.30 19.67 41.28 45.09 52.65 53.66 1.57%2.72%2.36%4.71%2.68 3.59 3.44 5.55 30.12 38.96 35.17 43.63 0.00%3.86%4.23%4.71%11.49 13.17 14.14 15.09 0.00 53.99 55.02 57.43 2.50%2.66%2.89%4.69%6.14 6.40 7.08 9.36 51.86 52.86 51.99 63.81 2.97%3.25%3.62%5.20%14.02 15.33 16.80 23.76 47.65 47.65 48.43 49.19 4.40%4.65%4.03%5.03%8.17 6.97 7.29 10.16 52.02 64.38 53.25 47.79 2.59%2.68%2.85%4.85%12.63 13.06 13.97 15.79 30.29 30.23 30.04 45.32 3.92%4.90%4.90%4.90%15.96 24.57 20.82 29.52 63.80 51.79 61.12 43.11 2.53%2.65%3.78%4.34%7.60 8.08 9.43 12.84 36.52 36.01 43.94 37.10 5.40%5.57%5.15%4.72%14.37 15.15 13.99 18.55 78.74 77.04 77.01 53.26 3.08%3.27%3.77%4.17%9.28 9.75 10.32 13.89 34.19 34.63 37.67 30.94 2.41%2.54%3.02%4.08%2.44 2.78 3.36 4.08 43.08 39.86 39.34 43.75 0.00%0.58%1.35%4.05%2.01 2.29 2.68 3.15 0.00 10.06 19.80 50.53 0.81%0.93%0.93%1.07%0.74 0.85 0.86 0.98 30.18 30.47 30.15 30.51 0.00%0.68%0.75%0.54%1.81 4.43 4.78 3.44 0.00 10.03 10.23 10.32 0.00%0.25%0.00%0.33%-2.91 0.33 0.09 0.36 0.00 31.28 0.00 37.54 1.57%1.11%0.78%0.00%1.53 1.09 0.75 1.12 30.66 30.39 30.70 30.47 wind 2024/8/6 2015-2016 2016-2019 2019-2020 TMT 2016/2017 2016 2016 2017 2017 2019 WIND 2021 2024 2023 21 2023 Wind 11 2024 2023 2023 玙 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522