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2009 1210 2024 8 9 1 2 1 2 2016 2 3/15%2024-2030 7.1-7.8 1 4.6-4.8*2016 2400 2023 1196 2024-2030 1176 4.6-4.8 2 1.9-2*0.2+/2012-2015 0.3-0.5 2016-2021 0.2 2024-2030 1.9-2.0 3 0.6-1 1 2015 2400 2023 1196 2 2015 3/2024 ROE 1 2 3-W S0360522110001%()109 0.01()9,355.71 1.14()8,843.29 1.37%1M 6M 12M-4.1%-22.2%-40.2%-2.0%-24.8%-25.1%2024 29 LPR 10BP 2024-07-23 2024-07-22 2024 1-6 ROE 2024-07-18-41%-27%-13%2%23/07 23/10 23/12 24/03 24/05 24/072023-08-082024-08-08 300 2009 1210/2016 2/15%2015 2400 1196 2024-2030 7.1-7.8 4.6-4.8 1.9-2 0.6-1 2024 2024-2030 7.1-7.8 2023 1196 ROE 1 2 3-W WUBYzQnQnOmNpRpMrMoRnM7NcM7NoMnNmOtPfQrRzRfQoPmO9PqQvMxNnPpQwMnNrO 2009 1210 3.6.8.8 70%.9 2024-2030 7.1-7.8.13 2024-2030 4.6-4.8.13 2024-2030 1.9-2.14 2020-2030 0.6-1.16 2015.19.22.22 2009 1210 4 1.6 2“S”.6 3.7 4.7 5 9.7 6 2016 2.8 7 2009 2021 1003 694.9 8 50%.9 9 1968 70%.9 10.10 11.11 12.11 13 1960 70%.11 14.12 15.13 16 2024-2030 1176.13 17 2024-2030 4.6-4.8.14 18 2020.14 19 2019 5 0.2.15 20 2012-2015/0.3-0.5.15 21 2030 40.62.16 22 2024-2030 1.9-2.0.16 23 2016.16 24 1988-2018 19428 54%.17 25 2010 2020 203 348.17 26 2020-2030 15 40%-68%/0.6-1.18 27.19 28 2016 2020.20 FgfET4oYb4K86Ko07/Yu4fC4iNkD3XJlIbfvIKRvuXLpFnlZc+KAZ1D6LaDvzr6v 2009 1210 5 29 2015 34%2020 40%.20 30 2015 2021 63%30%.20 31“”.20 32.21 33 2024 4 26.5.22 2009 1210 6 1 2 1 2 S 1 2 2023 800 57%61%3 产 业区教 育、医 疗、商业 配套住 宅区1住 宅区2d1d2d3 2009 1210 7 3 2023 1 2 2007 9/2005 88.6 2010 158.3 9 2023 7:009:00 4 5 9 2009 1210 8 1/2 3 2024 5 20 52%20 78%85%2009 4 70 2016 2 1 2024 5 20 52%20 78%85%2 2009 2 6 2016 2 Wind 1 2009 2021 2009 2021 0500100015002000250030002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2009 1210 9 1003 694 2 50%4 1%7 2009 2021 1003 694 8 50%Wind 56000 2023 70%1 2 1968 3 2008-2012 10 2012 NAR 2023 409 6 9 1968 70%Wind Tax Foundation 12-694-18-290-3938-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-1000100东西城、朝阳、海淀 丰台、石景山 近郊区（剔除经开区）远郊区 经开区2009 2021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2021 年 2022年 2023年 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0100200300400500600700800900(2009 1210 10 1 1920 2 1920 50%20 10 Campbell Gibson American Demographic History Chartbook:1790 to 2010 0501001502002503003501940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2009 1210 11 11 12 Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S.Census Bureau Eva Purkarthofer Soft planning in macro-regions and megaregions:creating toothless spatial imaginaries or new forces for change?1 2 2010 2010 20 MSA 38%-3 1960 70%T1-T2 1991-2000 T2-T3 2001-2011 13 1960 70%Wind 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%快 速上行缓 慢上行 2009 1210 12 14 2009 1210 13 2024-2030 7.1-7.8 2030 2024-2030 4.6-4.8 1 20-40 2*2024-2030 1176 4.6-4.8 1 2016 2400 2023 1196 2 2016-2030 2030 2030 14.5 70%2030 10.15 2023 9.33 2024-2030 1176 3 1 0.2 2030 40.62 4 2024-2030=*2024-2030 4.6-4.8 15 16 2024-2030 1176 Wind 2016-2030 1 05001000150020002500300035002001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%0.02.04.06.08.010.012.0 2009 1210 14 17 2024-2030 4.6-4.8 Wind 2024-2030 1.9-2 2020 38.62 2020 38.62 30-34 42.94 39.54 43-45 18 2020-2020 1 1 2 2 1 4.54.64.64.74.74.84.82024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 20.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.0050.0055.00广东上海北京海南吉林甘肃黑龙江新疆天津辽宁山西重庆内蒙古宁夏山东河北青海贵州四川浙江安徽陕西福建云南江苏广西湖北河南江西湖南西藏2020 2009 1210 15=/2 2024-2030 1.9-2.0 1 2019 5 0.2 2+*2=/2012 2015 0.3-0.5 2016 2021 3 0.2 2030 40.62 2024-2030 1.9-2 2024-2030*19 2019 5 0.2 20 2012-2015/0.3-0.5 Wind Wind 2 0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.60 5 0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4/2009 1210 16 21 2030 40.62 22 2024-2030 1.9-2.0 2000 2010 2020 2016-2030 2020-2030 0.6-1 2016 31%2000 2000 287.95 104 2001-2023 215 2016 110 23 2016 Wind 2000 1 54%2018 91.4%93%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.002000 2010 2020 2030E 1.81.91.92.02.02.12024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2000,1042001-2005,152006-2010,362011-2015,532016-2020,742021-20023,37 2009 1210 17 2/24 1988-2018 19428 54%Wind 総務省统计局平成 30 年住宅土地統计調査 2020-2030 0.6-1 1 2010 2020 2010 2020 203 348 2 2010 2020=*2010 2020 3 2010 2020 10 1949 1949-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 5.6%4.1%3.9%3.7%2.5%0.9%4 2020-2030 2020-2030 1.5 2023 85%50%50%-85%80%40%-68%0.6-1 25 2010 2020 203 348 2010 2020/30.33 38.62 66978 90220 203 348 2010 2020 01000200030004000500060007000800090001989-1993 年 1994-1998 年 1999-2003 年 2004-2008年 2009-2013年 2014-2018年 2009 1210 18 26 2020-2030 15 40%-68%/0.6-1 2010()2020 2020-2030 1949 1138 0.6%1.28 474 0.2%0.56 0.7 5.6%0.315 1949-1959 875 0.5%0.98 485 0.2%0.58 0.4 4.1%0.237 1960-1969 1812 1.0%2.03 1038 0.4%1.24 0.8 3.9%0.483 1970-1979 6754 3.7%7.57 3992 1.4%4.76 2.8 3.7%1.767 1980-1989 28834 15.9%32.32 20219 6.9%24.11 8.2 2.5%6.126 1990-1999 63504 35.0%71.18 54337 18.6%64.78 6.4 0.9%5.821 2000-2009 78317 43.2%87.78 99271 34.0%118.36 2010-2014 71717 24.5%85.51 2015 40710 13.9%48.54 181233 292243 15 2010 2020 2009 1210 19 2015 2015 1 2 2015 2015-2017 2400 3 2023 1196 2015 27 Wind 1 2010 2016 2020 2015 484.17 2015 34%2020 40%2020 175 2016-2018 9 2018 2017 2035 2020 236 69%2 2016 2021 886 721 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500 2009 1210 20 28 2016 2020 29 2015 34%2020 40%Wind Wind 30 2015 2021 63%30%31 Wind 1/2 2024 4 26.5 20.1 23.0 34.0 0100200300400500600700800 30.0%32.0%34.0%36.0%38.0%40.0%42.0%44.0%0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 010020030040050060070080090010002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2009 1210 21 32 5 17 21 3000 1.75%1 4 21 60%5000 21 2023 8 8 6 12 6 12 3000 5 2027 60%1 8 2009 1210 22 2024 1000 3000 8 33 2024 4 26.5 CRIC 2024 ROE 1 2 3-W 2009 1210 23 4 2022 2 2022 2023 2009 1210 24 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 25 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
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