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| 2018 10 11 2009 10 15-17 2018 1 2 S0680518100001 zhangqiyaogszq husiyugszq 1 ETF 11 2018-10-10 2 2018-10-10 3 11 2018-10-09 4 11 2018-10-08 5 A 2018-10-08 2018 10 11 P.2 . 3 . 4 . 6 . 9 . 9 1 1928 . 3 2 1928 . 4 3 . 4 4 18 . 5 5 500 PE . 5 6 2005 PE . 6 7 500 PE (2000 ) . 6 8 500 PE (2000 ) . 6 9 2009 3 9 . 7 10 17 . 7 11 17 FAANGs 500 . 8 12 . 8 13 . 8 2018 10 11 P.3 2009 10 500 300% 500% 500 1928 90 14 2009 3 1990 10 2000 3 330% 1 1928 Bloomberg 2018 10 11 P.4 2 1928 PE PE PE PE ( ) 1928.02-1929.09 16.95 31.86 1.58 88.0% 1932.06-1937.03 4.4 18.67 4.75 324.3% 1942.04-1946.05 7.47 19.25 4.08 157.7% 1949.06-1956.08 13.55 49.74 13.83 28.7% 7.17 267.1% 1957.10-1961.12 38.98 12.21 17.8% 72.64 22.40 88.8% 4.17 86.4% 1962.06-1966.02 52.32 15.39 37.3% 94.06 17.98 62.9% 3.67 79.8% 1966.10-1968.11 73.2 12.87 21.8% 108.37 17.97 62.9% 2.08 48.0% 1970.05-1973.01 69.29 13.20 24.1% 120.24 19.46 75.9% 2.67 73.5% 1974.10-1980.11 62.28 7.54 1.5% 140.52 9.12 8.0% 6.08 125.6% 1982.08-1987.08 102.42 7.07 0.1% 336.77 22.48 88.9% 5.00 228.8% 1987.12-1990.07 223.92 14.73 33.5% 368.95 15.96 41.0% 2.58 64.8% 1990.10-2000.03 295.46 13.47 26.2% 1527.46 30.56 99.9% 9.42 417.0% 2002.10-2007.10 776.76 17.26 53.4% 1565.15 17.52 57.1% 5.00 101.5% 2009.03-2018.09 676.53 11.10 14.2% 2930.75 21.16 84.8% 9.50 333.2% Bloomberg 10 70 3 Wind 2018 10 11 P.5 2018 EPS 4 18 Bloomberg PE 1954 PE 2 PE 3 5 500 PE Bloomberg PE 2005 2018 10 11 P.6 6 2005 PE Bloomberg 2000 75% 7 500 PE (2000 ) 8 500 PE (2000 ) Bloomberg Bloomberg 10 3 1) 09 2009 2) 10-13 2010 2013 2018 10 11 P.7 3) 14-17 2013 EPS 9 2009 3 9 Bloomberg 18 EPS 1 2017 8 10 17 Bloomberg 2 FAANGs 500 2017 2018 10 11 P.8 11 17 FAANGs 1 500 Bloomberg 3 EPS 2017 12 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act 12 13 2 15-17 2018 1FAANGs 即 以 Facebook 、 Apple 、 Amazon 、 Netflix 、 Google 等为代表的高增长的高科技公司， 此处为可比性故， 取用 Apple 、 Amazon 、 Nvidia 、Alphabet 、Netflix 和 Facebook 这 6 只标普 500 成分股进行计算。 2根据美联储的测算， 持有海外现金最多的 15 家公司所持海外现金总计约占标普 500 成分企业所持的 80% ， 同时也占它们所有现金 （国 内+ 国外） 的 80% 左右。 详见 Michael Smolyansky, Gustavo Suarez, and Alexandra Tabova , U.S. Corporations Repatriation of Offshore Profits, 2018 2018 10 11 P.9 1 2 3 15-17 2018 1 2 2018 10 11 P.10 “ ” ,
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