2017全球支付报告.pdf

WORLDPAYMENTSREPORT2017A preview into the global payments landscapeTABLE OF CONTENTSPreface 3Section 1: Non-Cash Markets and Trends 5Global Non-Cash Transaction Volumes Record Highest Growth Of Past Decade 6Double-Digit Growth For Non-Cash Transaction Volumes 6Developing Nations Increase Global Non-Cash Transactions Share 7China Surpasses Brazil To Rank Third Among Non-Cash Markets 8Debit Cards, Credit Transfers Lead Digital Instruments While Check Use Declines Globally 10The Continuing Role of Cash In Payments 13Section 2: Key Regulations and Industry Initiatives 15In A Challenging Regulatory Landscape, Competition And Collaboration Are Key As PSD2 Looms 16Overview 16Varying Scope Of Competition And Innovation Across Multiple KRIIs 17Leveraging Customer-Centric KRIIs To Provide Innovative Solutions 18Key Regulatory and Industry Initiatives (KRIIs) in Payments, 2017 20Section 3: PSD2 The Road Ahead 27An Introduction To PSD And PSD2 27PSD2 Objectives 28Future PSD2 Questions And Considerations 29PSD2 Business Impact On Stakeholders 29Banks 29Third-Party Payment Service Providers 30Merchants And Customers 30Uncertainties Surround PSD2 31Section 4: Asia-Pacific Payment Regulation: What CFOs and Treasurers Need to Know 33Southeast Asias Regulatory Landscape 33Indonesia 33Malaysia 34China 34How Does This Impact Banks? 35Longer Term Vision 35Closing Thoughts 37Methodology 39Glossary 40About Us 42Acknowledgements 433Anirban BoseHead, Banking & Capital MarketsCapgemini (FS SBU)Jean-Franois DenisDeputy Global Head of Cash ManagementBNP ParibasPrefaceWelcome to the special online edition of World Payments Report, which provides in-depth analysis of the global non-cash transaction market and a review of key regulatory and industry initiatives (KRIIs). This is a preview of the global payments landscape; forward-looking analysis and further industry assessment will be published in the full report release in October.WPR 2017 marks the second year of partnership between Capgemini and BNP Paribas, a global banking player and recognized leader in transaction banking and cash management. This partnership brings insightful analysis of the global non-cash transaction environment to banks, and in-depth research on payment related topics, particularly relevant for the corporate sector.Our analysis of the 2015 global non-cash transaction volumes shows volumes grew 11.2% during 20142015 to reach 433.1 billion, the highest growth of the past decade. Two regions fueled this increase: Emerging Asia, with a growth rate of 43.4% and Central Europe, Middle East, and Africa (CEMEA, with growth of 16.4%).Within the top 10 markets for non-cash transaction volumes, China climbed to third place with 38.1 billion transactions, surpassing 2014s number three market Brazil. Chinas rise was fueled by a phenomenal 63.2% growth rate, the result of higher adoption of digital payments initiatives in rural areas and a shift from cash to mobile payments among payment services users (PSUs).The growth in non-cash transactions is taking place in a regulatory environment that is transforming processes, business models, and solutions in the payments arena. Regulators have taken a transformative approach to infuse competition and innovation among payments services. The KRIIs have the potential to achieve substantive results in terms of standardization and transparency, which are expected to bring visible changes to customers in terms of innovative solutions.One of the most important KRIIs for the payments industry is the revised Payment Services Directive (PSD2), which will be implemented at the beginning of 2018. With it, Europe is taking an important step toward becoming a fully interoperable digital market. This is expected to have far-reaching effects across banks, payment services providers (PSPs), FinTechs, and corporates. It is also inspiring other geographies to develop similar initiatives to fuel digital transformation of payments.Although regulators have provided the deadline for transposing PSD2 into national laws, the process of transposition lacks clarity. It is feared that there might be a lack of synchronization between the national laws of EU members. There are also fears that the momentum for implementing the regulatory technical standards (RTS) of PSD2, which come into effect 12-16 months after PSD2 comes into force, could be lost.Without a final roadmap to address the concerns for all PSD2 stakeholders it is likely that some may be reluctant move forward at pace.And when it comes to complex and dynamic Asia-Pacific payment regulations, corporate CFOs and treasurers must work with a well-positioned bank to act as a guide through the regulatory labyrinth; while also considering back-to-back or off-shore financing, hedging against foreign exchange risk, and making use of electronic payments.Key Findings2017 WORLD PAYMENTS REPORTA PREVIEW 5SECTION 1 Global non-cash transaction volumes grew 11.2% during 20142015 to reach 433.1 billion, the highest growth of the past decade, and slightly above last years prediction1. This growth was driven to a large degree by developing markets, which recorded a 21.6% increase in 2015 while mature markets grew by 6.8%, a nominal rise over the 6% recorded in 2014. Within the top-10 markets for non-cash transaction volumes, China climbed to third place with 38.1 billion transactions, surpassing 2014s number three market Brazil. Debit cards and credit transfers were the leading digital instruments in 2015, while check usage continues to decline globally. Debit cards accounted for the highest share (46.7%) of global non-cash transactions followed by credit cards with 19.5% in 2015. Although credit cards volume grew 10% globally in 2015, growth rates across regions declined or grew marginally, except in Emerging Asia. Owing to growing usage of electronic payment methods, the volume of checks continued to fall in 2015 as well, by 13.4% globally. While countries including the U.K. and Australia plan to phase out checks in the near future, no other countrys authorities have set a date on phasing out check usage. Despite the increased adoption of digital payments, cash continues to be in the mainstream, especially for low-value transactions. Apart from transaction sizes, the use of cash is strongly correlated with demographics. Other key factors for high usage of cash are the anonymity of transaction associated with cash, lack of modernized payment infrastructure, and lack of access to banking systems in emerging markets. Although the share of cash in the total payment volumes is declining in the majority of countries, cash in circulation (CIC) remained stable or increased slightly over the past five years. The CIC to GDP ratio is increasing at a higher pace globally except in Denmark, the U.K., Sweden, Canada, and South Africa, and this may hamper the progress toward cashless societies. Since CIC is increasing, it is expected that cash will continue to stay in the system for a longer term than estimated. Several countries in Asia Pacific have higher CIC to GDP ratios and there is an opportunity to increase their per capita non-cash transactions to accelerate their transformation into digital economies.1In WPR 2016, we estimated that the global non-cash transaction volumes would grow to reach 426.3 billion in 2015Non-Cash Markets and Trends62017 WORLD PAYMENTS REPORTA PREVIEWSection 1: Non-Cash Markets and TrendsGlobal Non-Cash Transaction Volumes Record Highest Growth Of Past Decade DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH FOR NON-CASH TRANSACTION VOLUMES Global non-cash transaction volumes grew 11.2% during 20142015 to reach 433.1 billion, the highest growth of the past decade, and slightly above last years prediction (Figure 1.1). Two regions fueled this increase: Emerging Asia2with a growth rate of 43.4% and CEMEA (Central Europe, Middle East, and Africa3), with 16.4% growth.Expansion in Emerging Asia was due to impressive growth across all geographies as increased adoption of mobile payments and wallets generated a proliferation of card use. Electronic Bill Presentment and Payment (EBPP) solutions that leverage real-time payments networks and infrastructures boosted credit transfers. CEMEA recorded the highest growth in cards transactions and credit transfers in countries such as Saudi Arabia and Poland. This was particularly true in countries where card network development is immature.For example, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agencys SADAD Payment System is a national EBPP service provider, facilitating a wide range of payment transactions for individuals, banks, businesses, and the government sector. Initially, a bill payment system, SADAD was expanded in 2016 with the launch of e-account services that facilitate links between banks and retailers, a critical step toward increasing digital payments in the Kingdom. Overall, developing markets (e.g. Emerging Asia, Latin America and CEMEA) recorded accelerated volume growth of 21.6%, driven by individual countries such as China (63.2%), Russia (30%), India (16%), Mexico (10.9%), and South Africa (10.7%).Figure 1.1 Number of Worldwide Non-Cash Transactions (Billion), by Region, 2011-15 Note: CEMEA (Central Europe, Middle East, Africa) now includes Algeria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kenya, Nigeria, Egypt, Israel, Morocco, and UAE in Other CE and MEA countries; Latin America now includes Argentina, Colombia, Venezuela, Chile, Peru, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Bolivia, and Paraguay in Other Latin American countries; Emerging Asia now includes Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Taiwan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh in Other Asian countries; Mature APAC (Asia-Pacific) includes Japan, Australia, South Korea and Singapore; NA (North America) includes the U.S. and Canada; Chart numbers and quoted percentages may not add up due to rounding; Some numbers may differ from data published in WPR 2016 due to previous year data updated at the source and addition of new countriesSource: Capgemini Financial Services Analysis, 2017; ECB Statistical Data Warehouse, 2015 figures released October 2016; Bank for International Settlements Red Book, 2015 figures released December 2016; Countrys Central Bank Annual Reports, 2015Non-Cash Transactions (Billion)CAGR GrowthDeveloping11 15 13 14 14 15Mature6.8%21.6%GlobalLatin AmericaCEMEAEmerging AsiaMature Asia-Pacif_icEurope(including Eurozone)North America8.9%7.5%17.7%29.6%10.7%6.0%4.5%8.6%4.3%11.3%31.5%10.8%7.3%4.4%11.2%4.8%16.4%43.4%9.6%7.5%5.4%123.7 127.7134.0139.8147.480.383.588.094.4101.530.233.537.341.345.319.523.929.138.354.925.231.134.538.444.729.332.035.837.439.1308.1331.6358.7389.6433.101252503755002011 2012 2013 2014 20152Including China, Hong Kong, India, and other Asian markets3CEMEA (including Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, Ukraine, Hungary, Czech Republic, Romania, and other Central European and Middle Eastern markets72017 WORLD PAYMENTS REPORTA PREVIEWSection 1: Non-Cash Markets and TrendsNon-cash transaction volumes in mature markets witnessed a growth rate of 6.8%, a nominal rise over the 6% recorded in 2014. Within this segment, total non-Eurozone and North America regions saw the highest growth rates of 10.2% and 5.4%, respectively, during 2015. The greatest growth rate increase (although not the highest growth rate) was recorded in North America (United States and Canada) with 5.4% in 2015, compared with 4.4% in 2014. In the United States, increased adoption of mobile payments led to a growth rate of 5.6%. In comparison, Canadas volume growth slowed during the period from 6.6% in 2014 to 4.1% in 2015 due to several factors, including a reduction in growth rates of debit card and direct debit transactions as contactless technology proliferated. Use of contactless credit cards in Canada tripled between 201120154. Also, enhanced loyalty and reward programs boosted credit card transaction volumes, which overtook debit card volume growth. Contactless payments are becoming the new normal, and the trend is being observed in Europe as well in countries such as France where the circulation of Visa contactless cards doubled from 20.3 million in 2014 to 40 million in 20155. The U.K. tops the contactless markets in Europe with contactless cards in circulation reaching as high as 106.9 million in 20156.Even in Australia, contactless payments account for about 70- to 80% of MasterCard and Visa payments7.Europe recorded a small growth rate, from 7.3% to 7.5%8. Countries in this region that experienced accelerated growth include Germany, Spain, Finland, Ireland, Sweden, and Denmark. It is interesting to note that some countries with higher per capita transactions (Figure 1.4), such as Denmark and Finland witnessed accelerated growth.Mature Asia Pacific9APAC countries experienced stable growth of 9.6% in 2015 (compared with 10.8% in 2014). Changes occurred in the mix of payments instruments, with increased adoption of credit transfers fueled by wallets and instant payments, which was particularly the case in Singapore and Japan. Furthermore, in Japan, the non-cash volume base is stabilizing as GDP stagnates. In Australia and South Korea, growth rates were flat.The growth rate did not offset the decrease in card transaction volumes although credit transfers in the region increased, fueled by higher adoption of Singapores immediate payments system, Fast and Secure Transfers (FAST), and by Australian digital payment methods.Growth rates in mature markets are stabilizing due to higher penetration of alternative instruments such as contactless and mobile payments. At the same time, higher GDP growth, and adoption of digital initiatives such as mobiles and wallets are leading to volume growth in developing countries.DEVELOPING NATIONS INCREASE GLOBAL NON-CASH TRANSACTIONS SHARE Emerging markets contributed to 30% of the global volume and witnessed a growth rate of 21.6% from 201415 (Figure 1.2), while mature markets contributed to 70% share with a 6.8% growth rate. Developing markets witnessed phenomenal 21.6% growth in 201415, compared with 16.6% in 200910 and volume of share 19.6%. Mature markets enjoyed a share of 80.4% in 200910 with a growth rate of 16.6% that dropped to 6.8% in 2014-15.Emerging Asia recorded the highest increase in transaction share2.9%thanks to stellar growth in China and India. At the same time, North America and Europe witnessed a decline in their share of non-cash transaction volumes of 1.8% and 0.7% respectively. However, the regions account for a majority share of 34.0% and 23.4%, respectively, of total non-cash transaction volumes globally.4“Canadian Payment Methods and Trends, 2016”, Page 13, payments.ca/sites/default/files/cpmt_report_english_0.pdf5“Visa Europe cardholders make 1 billion contactless payments in 12 months,” visaeurope/newsroom/news/1-billion-visa-contactless-purchases-made-in-last-yea