2019年科技预测报告.pdf

Trends yet this report shows that technology does not just move the goalposts, it reshapes the world as we know it. How we bank, shop and the type of money we carry are all covered. Our predictions on the rise of digital banks, the influence of crypto currencies, and retailers attempts to upgrade delivery systems exemplify how technology impacts everyday decisions, as well as shedding light on what businesses are doing to speed up transactional processes and introduce safeguards. We also make our predictions on employee engagement, subscription models and the Technologys transformative effect has touched every corner of todays world. Its commercial, social and political impact has been unprecedented. At GP Bullhound we are proud to work with the entrepreneurs and the world-leading companies that appreciate technologys potential and work hard to turn its promise into reality. Now entering its twelfth year, our Technology Predictions report reflects our optimistic mindset and demonstrates what technology and its leading minds could achieve over the next 12 months.GP BULLHOUND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2019 5 Alec Dafferner Partner future of app stores, considering how we can expect them to change and grow in 2019. Each one shows how technologys impact can be laser-focused, laying strong, specific foundations for future industries. Meanwhile, we investigate what the next 12 months may hold for developments in AI, advertising and retail. In each, we unearth an unrelenting pace of change, which could bring countless benefits if pragmatic decisions are made. To do that, technology must be viewed as friend not foe, which is one of the macro themes of the report. Treating tech as a negative force will limit the good it can do. How to balance fears of technology with optimism of the better world it can build looks set to carry on being a question that defines our time. Consumers are expecting technology to give them a lot in return for very little: giving rise to a second macro theme that emerges. Pressing questions over what we get for what we give will continue to be the focus of boardroom and consumer debates. The scope and scale of technology means challenges will inevitably exist, so it is important that we remain faithful to our belief that technology is a positive force. This report is intended to act as a roadmap to readers, shedding light and expert opinion on the trends that matter. We hope you find it useful. 2 GP BULLHOUND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2019THE PREDICTIONS RECAP OF GP BULLHOUNDS 2018 Predictions Before we dig into 2019, here is a brief recap of last years predictions and how we saw their development throughout the year. While the Pixel Buds have not been the success we, or Google, imagined they might be, translation technology as a whole has still taken off this year. Neural machine translation has given translation technology a more accurate and faster way to provide context to different words or phrases, which has revolutionized the efficacy and adoption of tools like Google Translate 6 . As a global bank, we are constantly in need of translation services for our own personal use. Voice translation and text translation have reached a point where, with connectivity, anyone can seamlessly travel in foreign cities and communicate with the people that call them home. Remarkably, we werent strong enough with last years prediction. Mobile usage continues to skyrocket in China, and overtook TV usage in April of this year, with adults spending two hours and 39 minutes a day on mobile devices, accounting for 41.6% of their daily media time compared with two hours and 32 minutes a day watching TV, which represents 39.8% of daily media time 4 . Some 98% of Chinas internet users are mobile, which is a bewildering statistic, and further underlines their mobile-first culture, underpinned by their all-in-one super apps 5 . Much has happened in the realm of politics and technology over the course of 2018. The top digital advertisers have enacted a multitude of measures to counteract nefarious influences on democratic elections, as well as increase the transparency of legitimate political advertising. Both Facebook and Google have released their archives of all political advertising on their platforms and have bolstered security spending in a big way 1 . Facebook is ratcheting up spending on AI initiatives to counter rogue accounts and it plans to double the number of its security engineers from 10,000 to 20,000 2 . Though the reputational damage done by these kinds of activities far outweighs the monetary cost, the financial impact cannot be understated and it is certainly felt by their bottom line. There is no doubt that consumer cybersecurity continues to be an incredibly important topic for consumer brands and consumers themselves. Awareness, and unfortunately the number of victims, of cybersecurity continues to rise with 54% of people more concerned with protecting their personal data after the Cambridge Analytica scandal than they were previously 3 . With more awareness comes increased action. This consumer security trend can be seen in the cybersecurity space, for example with the IPO of Avast in May 2018, which is one of the largest providers of consumer antivirus and VPN solutions. 3 1. AN UNEASY FUTURE For Politics and Technology 4. TRANSLATION TECHNOLOGY Takes Hold 3. MOBILE TRUMPS TV In China 2. CYBER SECURITY Exposure and Adoption Sources: 1. Tech Crunch, Facebook launches new weekly ad archive report for political spending, August 15, 2018 2. The Hill, Facebook launches new weekly ad archive report for political spending, October 23, 2018 3. Tech Republic, Consumers are more concerned with cybersecurity and data privacy in 2018, November 7, 2018 4. eMarketer, In China, Mobile Usage Will Overtake TV This Year, April 19, 2018 5. Tech Crunch, Consumers are more concerned with cybersecurity and data privacy in 2018, August 21, 2018 6. Wbur, Translation Technology Is Getting Better. What Does That Mean For The Future?, July 19, 2018 Inaccurate prediction Accurate prediction Partially accurate prediction 37 We were only partially correct in our prediction about email in the workplace. It seems people are more reliant on aging forms of communication than we thought, with both workplace instant messaging tools and email growing at a clip in 2018. We sent roughly 281 billion emails per day in 2018, with that number forecast to grow to 294 billion in 2019. However, messaging services have grown dramatically in popularity and usage over the last year. Slack, for example, now has 8 million daily active users, with users spending an average of 320 minutes a day (!) on the platform per week day 7 . The movement of tech companies to areas outside traditional hubs has continued over the past year. While key drivers of this migration were once economic, politics now play a larger role e.g. Thiel Capitals move from San Francisco to LA. The passing of Proposition C in San Francisco has caused a deep divide in the tech community. Capital is abundant outside of target cities - Seattle and San Diego have both attracted over $1 billion in VC investment 8 , leading to a more geographically distributed ecosystem. In Europe, Brexit has caused many entrepreneurs to move to cities such as Brussels throwing into question Londons title as the start-up capital of Europe 9 . We were spot on in our prediction that the HR software market is moving towards suite solutions rather than best-of-breed point solutions. In a big shock to the market, LinkedIn announced a move into the Applicant Tracking System (“ATS”) market with the launch of Talent Hub 10 . This is a natural extension of its top of the funnel sourcing and it will be interesting to see how it plays out in a crowded and well capitalized ATS market. LinkedIn clearly sees the value of the suite, choosing to enter into a space that it has previously avoided. Regulatory bodies reported a significant increase in enforcement actions and civil monetary penalties due to cryptocurrency oversight. The largest court case of its kind in 2018 saw cryptocurrency established as a commoditiy, which allows the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to police the market 13 . Bitcoin has experienced a sharp decline, crashing through the $6k barrier and reaching its lowest level since October of last year. Notable Bitcoin thought leader Barry Silbert famously tweeted “capitulation” in the face of the continued Bitcoin rollercoaster. The concerning factor in the Bitcoin market is the magnitude of the volatility sometimes dropping and rising over 10% in a single day. Industry 4.0 has officially arrived in 2018 in a meaningful way. We mentioned that consulting firm activity was the leading indicator of a slow moving but massive opportunity in Industry 4.0. As manufacturers begin to retrofit legacy factories with smart robotics, they are leaning on consultants for their expertise. Deloitte posted record revenue for FY2018 and explicitly stated one of the main growth drivers of their consulting business to be digitally- enabled business transformation opportunities 11 , many of which are created by Industry 4.0. Accenture has been busy in the space, as usual, acquiring Mindtribe and Pillar Technology, which further bolster its “Industry X.O” practice 12 . For all the hype surrounding Apple and Googles forays into augmented reality, the early market reacted with a tepid response, but then proceeded to take off. Data from Sensor Tower suggests ARKit has been downloaded over 13m times just six months after launch 14 . In unsurprising fashion, consumers are mostly interested in gaming titles, which comprised 47% of AR installations. Consumer interest remains bullish, and AR continues to become more and more mainstream with the introductions of advanced handsets and pre-installed AR apps. With the news that Magic Leap does not live up to expectations, we are unsure of the near term prospects for enterprise applications, but we remain true believers in the long term opportunity. 6. INTERNATIONAL LABOR Arbitrage Flourishes 5. OVER AND OUT Email 8. INDUSTRY 4.0 10. AUGMENTED REALITY Adapts for Early Adoption Sources: 7. Expanded Ramblings, 55 Amazing Slack Statistics and Facts (August 2018), November 10, 2018 8. Pitchbook, November, 2018 9. ZD Net, The Brexit dilemma: Will Londons start-ups stay or go?, October 16, 2018 10. LinkedIn, LinkedIn Announces new Recruiter platform its first ATS and new diversity insights at Talent Connect Conference, October 10, 2018 11. PR Newswire, Deloitte announces record revenue of US$43.2 billion, September 18, 2018 12. Accenture Newsroom, Accenture Expands Industry X.0 Capabilities with Two Acquisitions in North America, August 9, 2018 13. Wall Street Journal, Cryptocurrencies, Trading Scams Draw Increased Federal Enforcement, October 5, 2018 14. Venture Beat, Sensor Tower: ARKit apps rack up over 13 million downloads in 6 months, March 28, 2018 9. REGULATORS RULE ON Boom and Bust of ICOs GP BULLHOUND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2019 7. THE UNLIKELY COMEBACK Of the Software Suite 4 GP BULLHOUND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2019THE PREDICTIONS TECHNOLOGY Predictions 2019 Over the course of more than a decade, GP Bullhounds Technology Predictions report has established a reputation as an industry-leading analysis of the trends and innovations shaping the global technology sector. What follows are the ten trends we believe will define tech in 2019. 5 Between 2017 and 2018 there was a 24% increase in digital transactions, with more than two-thirds of millennials in the US using their smartphone as a wallet. This is creating an environment where traditional financial institutions are implementing innovative digital banking solutions, while start-ups grow at a rapid rate due to the demand from venture capitalists to invest in fintech. 1. DIGITAL BANKING Continues to Rise Recruitment processes, data analytics and capital management are just three areas of HR set to be disrupted by new technology. HR tech could have a major impact on the way teams manage their internal processes, but artificial intelligence used in HR will have to be tuneable in order to avoid institutionalizing the biases it aims to eliminate. 3. EMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENT Goes High Tech Income from apps makes up 20% and 18% of Apple and Googles respective revenues, charging a commission to app developers to host and distribute on their platforms. However, a backlash is beginning with the tech giants becoming a leech on app developers that have the product popularity to stand alone. 2. APP DISTRIBUTION Moving Away From Apple and Google Traditional bricks and mortar retail still dominates over e-commerce, making up 88% of global retail purchases. Tech giants and online start-ups are even turning their attention to physical rather than online exclusive retail. A new age of retail is emerging, with the combination of innovative technology and the social dimension consumers enjoy in traditional retail. 4. RETAIL TECHNOLOGY Gets Smarter 59 GP BULLHOUND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2019 7. A BREAK-UP of an Advertising Duopoly Advertisers spent $4.6 billion on Amazons platform in a watershed year that has seen advertising money move away from the Google-Facebook duopoly, which currently hold 58% of the market combined. With the development of its own end-to-end service, brands will begin to allocate budget to specialized performance partners in order to get their product in front of Amazons consumers. 5. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IS THE End of Repetition, not the End of Life The media narrative has often portrayed technology as the end of the white-collar workforce, but like all previous industrial revolutions, humans will adapt to new technologies. Artificial intelligence is set to improve working conditions, create more flexible ways of working, and remove the need for humans to take on time-consuming menial tasks. 10. CRYPTOCURRENCY Will Grow Up We are yet to see the best of cryptocurrencies. Blockchain activity is picking up with even traditional financial institutions ensuring they do not get left behind. 2019 should be the year institutional capital flows into cryptocurrency, with previous obstructions and tight regulations lifted. 8. LAST MILE DELIVERY Going the Distance More than half of shoppers under-35 expect to have an option of same-day delivery, despite only two of the top 50 online US retailers offering this. But with next-day delivery already a staple, and Amazon leading the way in developing fulfilment centers for rapid delivery, more retailers will turn their attention to last mile delivery solutions