资源描述
#Token Mania The new funding mechanism using distributed ledger technology that displaces both public markets (IPOs) and private investment (Venture Capital) with a billion of USD equivalent cryptocurrency Suitable only for professional investors General Disclaimer Please note that the information and data presented herein is based on reliable sources and, or opinion of Autonomous Research LLP (herein referred to as “Autonomous”). The material within this document has been prepared for information purposes only. This material does not give a Research Recommendation and/or Price Target and thus applicable regulatory Research Recommendation disclosures relating to the same are not included herein. This communication is not a product of the Research department of Autonomous although there may be links or references to Research reports and products. This communication has been issued and approved for distribution in the U.K. by Autonomous Research LLP only to, and directed at, a) persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”) or b) by high net worth entities and other person to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated, falling within 49(1) of the Order together Relevant Persons. This material is intended only for investors who are eligible counterparties or professional clients, and must not be redistributed to retail investors. This communication is not intended to be acted on or relied upon by retail investors. Retail investors who through whatever means or media receive this material should note that the services of Autonomous are not available to them and should not rely on the contents to make any investment decision. Autonomous shall not be liable for any loss, including any consequential loss which may result from reliance on the information or incurred in respect of any action taken. You are advised to seek your own legal, tax or financial advice accordingly. Autonomous makes every effort to use reliable comprehensive information, but makes no representation that is accurate or complete. Autonomous assumes no responsibility to update any of the contents or opinions contained and therefore accepts no responsibility for any actions taken on receipt of this communication. The information contained herein and any opinion expressed does not constitute an offer or an invitation to make an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instrument or derivative relating thereto. The information is not intended to provide personal recommendation or investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific person. Note that income from securities and other financial instruments as well as their value may fall as well as rise and investors may lose their investments. Past performance is not a guarantee for future performance. In Europe: Autonomous Research LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom (500498). Registered in England & Wales No OC343985. This information is provided for your sole use. For the protection of persons (other than a client) who are not authorised to receive this communication, it may not be reproduced in whole or in part by any means except for the personal reference of the intended recipient. No part of this material may be reproduced, distributed or transmitted or otherwise made available without prior consent of Autonomous. Any unauthorised disclosure is strictly prohibited. Copyright Autonomous Research LLP. All rights reserved. The use of external logos are not authorized by, sponsored by, or associated with the trademark owner. Any trademarks and service marks contained herein are the property of their respective owners. 2 Table of Contents I. Introduction to Initial Coin Offerings II. ICO Market III. Sources of Capital IV. Strategic Context and Direction V. Regulatory and Governance Issues VI. Investment Structure Considerations VII. About Autonomous VIII. Appendix Lex Sokolin Partner & Global Director Fintech Strategy autonofintech nextautonomous July 2017 Key takeaways across industry players 4 Startups/Ecosystem Key regulatory and governance questions inhibit the flow of mainstream capital and adoption, so resolve these issues with transparency and standards Focus on delivering functional innovations that solve tractable problems in the economy for the mainstream, in addition to the technical infrastructure for smart contracts and processing Treat building the ecosystem as a marathon with long-term value creation, rather than taking advantage of ICOs for fast funding Find ways to partner with incumbents in your industry to translate value from the Crypto economy to the physical world Make UX/UI more intuitive to the average consumer for broader adoption and understanding Investors Financial Incumbents Although the current ICO market has the symptoms of a bubble, there is an underlying innovation that has the attributes of a massive platform shift in the digital world Leverage lessons of the Dotcom years - while most projects fail, some will redefine their industries in a winner-take-all dynamic over a 10+ year holding period Manage exposures appropriately; in a core/satellite asset allocation, Crypto tokens should be a subset of Alternatives, likely no more than 5% of the overall portfolio Diversification within Crypto token holdings is also important, evidenced by quick turnover in Alt-coins rankings in last 4 years Cyber security of wallets and exchanges must be managed, as well as possibilities of scams Understand causes of the ICO wave and its technology; consider geopolitical forces challenging sovereigns and incumbents across the world from automation to loss of trust and to decentralization Build financial capabilities around Crypto tokens as an asset class, from research to custody to exchanges, leveraging regulatory capability as advantage Consider using Crypto tokens as an operating strategy, such as tokenizing internal currencies and workflows, or catalyzing developer communities around open APIs Extend Corporate Venture Capital to engage with the developing ecosystem at the right risk level Find ways to translate economic activity occurring in digital worlds to the traditional economy A Note on Terminology ICO or Token Launch? 5 Participants in the ecosystem refer to the distribution of tokens as part of a decentralized blockchain project in a variety of ways The media and many speculators primarily use the term ICO (“Initial Coin Offering”) or, sometimes, ITO (“Initial Token Offering”) This has the effect of comparing token distributions to IPOs (“Initial Public Offerings”), which benefits the hype-cycle but is detrimental to good-faith technologists building decentalized projects Such technologists prefer the term “Token Launches” as there is no regulatory consensus that tokens are securities, currencies, commodities, assets or instruments, and many tokens are designed specifically to not invoke US securities laws Google trends shows that the terms ICO and Crypto have experienced the largest popularity gains with the rise of token launches on the Ethereum blockchain, while the search term “Token Launch” or “Token Offering” is not widely used We are resigned to use the term ICO as a shortcut, without any normative meaning as to the status of the tokens themselves Google Search Trends Delta on an Absolute Basis (Last 5 years) Ju l 1 2 Ja n 1 3 Ju l 1 3 Ja n 1 4 Ju l 1 4 Ja n 1 5 Ju l 1 5 Ja n 1 6 Ju l 1 6 Ja n 1 7E t h e r e u m A l t c o i n C r y p t o T o k e n I C O Source: Autonomous NEXT, Google Search Trends Executive Summary (1/2) 6 A new funding mechanism has been slowly coming to mainstream awareness that leverages the power of decentralized technology Over $1.2 billion raised through these mechanisms in the first half of 2017, far outstripping venture capital investment into Blockchain and Bitcoin firms; approximately 50% of 2017 ICO capital raised in last 30 days Capital is often contributed in the form of Bitcoin (“BTC”) or Ethereum (“ETH”) These offerings are akin to sale of a future money supply or a platform utility enabler, rather than a sale of Securities Unlike the sale of equities in a private venture investment or in an Initial Public Offering, the object sold is a digital token or coin that is both scarce and validated based on advanced cryptography techniques The offerings are issued by collections of people that may or may not be formally organized as a legal entity Global regulation has not come to agreement about these offerings, with certain jurisdictions treating them as assets, commodities or currencies, and other jurisdictions split over which tokens are securities They must be offered on a Distributed Ledger and are fully digital, with most tokens designed and sold using the protocols of public smart-contract technology called Ethereum Ethereum is the preferred platform of choice for issuing smart contract tokens using the ERC20 standard Tokens can be used as a medium of exchange and can be a replica of Bitcoin with philosophical differences (e.g., privacy, speed, supply) or have functional utility within a technologically advanced system Features of tokens can be designed to make them more like (a) an investment / security or (b) more functional; best practices for launches are being developed by leaders in the ecosystem (e.g. Coin Center) Some ICOs launch with developed products and roadmaps for utilizing proceeds, while others are raising money without a developed product aiming to leverage speculation Executive Summary (2/2) 7 The Crypto Economy is growing outside of traditional venues this has happened before with video game gold farming and virtual economies, but not on such a global scale While BTC is the first digital currency to go mainstream, it is not the first digital currency or virtual economy Virtual economies with real economic value have evolved within video games such as World of Warcraft, Eve Online, and Second Life. The scale of new technology is orders of magnitude greater than prior iterations. The culture of the early Internet is directly connected to ICOs and investor personalities in the ecosystem Speculation and volatility across the Crypto Economy are rampant, and many participants are aware of both fraudulent practices and a growing bubble fuelled by Bitcoin whales The marketcap of BTC has increased from $10 billion at end of 2016 to over $40 billion halfway through 2017 Demand is driven by (1) entry of mainstream investors, (2) enterprise efforts in the financial industry like Enterprise Ethereum, and (3) movement of savings into digital currency in the developing world Unfortunately, many ICOs are fraudulent and intended to take advantage of excitement in the ecosystem by leveraging social media for promotion and a lack of enforceable consumer protection, raising legitimate regulatory concerns and attempts by select market participants to self-regulate Yet, underneath the turbulent waters are seeds for a massive transformation of the real world and we should learn from prior examples of economic phase shifts While many of the tech companies of the first Tech bubble in the late 1990s have disappeared, winners like Amazon and Netflix have experienced large capital gains and monopolization of their sectors While most cryptocurrencies have not been successful, BTC and ETH have experienced large capital gains and growing adoption, signalling an underlying structural shift that incumbents should embrace Investment into tokens allows economic participation at the protocol layer of a next-generation internet Introduction to Initial Coin Offerings Getting started with ICOs 9 Initial Coin Offerings / Token Launches are an emergent phenomenon of Blockchain technology and virtual communities A group of technologists, often that are well-known in the cryptocurrency community (forums, Twitter, Reddit, Github), or that are part of a more institutional setting, decide to work on a project They author a white paper that explains the technical and business dimensions of a project. Best practices include explaining how the technology works, the role of the token and its source of value, and mechanisms for issuing tokens and accessing raised funds, increasingly supported by independent audits ICOs combine the trends of (1) crowdfunding powered by the virality of Internet marketing, and (2) exponential technology growth through adoption within a tech-forward network Tokens are sold to a global crowd whose main commonality is technological literacy; there is generally no requirement to be an accredited investor or live in a particular geography Often, the real-world adoption of the project undergoing the ICO correlates with the value of the tokens, and in many cases the community that buys the tokens will also utilitize them (e.g., decentralized cloud storage) - Consider the virtual currency of video games, where in-game gold has value only for internal use by players Yet in many cases, participants purchase tokens primarily for speculation and capital gains To participate in an ICO and own a token requires specialized software and knowledge Ownership is determined by holding the digital access keys allowing transfer or use of the token, or account with an intermediary that holds the token for the owner. Given the state of the ecosystem, some participants essentially hide cash under a mattress, by writing keys on a piece of paper and putting it into a physical safe. A large niche has grown around providing all types of wallets - hardware, software and otherwise - in which tokens or coins can be stored, but third parties can be hacked and cannot reverse decentralized transactions Token Value is derived from two primary sources today: Functional and Speculative 10 The functional value is that which is derived from the use of the token itself In Bitcoin, the utility value is replacing sovereign fiat and enabling payments as a scarce self-regulating digital currency In Ethereum, the utility value is the facilitation of a smart-contract ecosystem that powers the global economy, from finance to the Internet of Things Recent ICOs have defined very specific utility values for tokens, which fuel their ecosystem Imagine there are plans to open a new Casino, and for funding, the Casino sells its own plastic chips before opening, in anticipation of customers using these chips and creating economic value. The speculative value is the value a trader of the token derives from trading it on an exchange, relative to others This can be a positive de
展开阅读全文