9 全球光伏逆变器市场回顾及展望 - IHSM 谢锋.pdf

2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.全球光伏逆变器市场回顾及展望Global PV inverter market overview and opportunity for Chinese suppliersPower & Energy Technology: Solar19 July, 2017谢锋 /Frank Xie高级分析师IHS Markit021-2422904218512189970Frank.Xieihsmarkit 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.目录Agenda IHS Markit 简介 2016年全球光伏逆变器市场回顾 2017年全球光伏逆变器市场趋势 中国 光 伏装机类型变化及逆变器选择 国内光伏逆变器厂商如何开拓全球市场？ 演讲提要 Brief introduction to IHS Markit Global PV inverter market in 2016 Key PV inverter market trends in 2017 Change of installation system type and inverter product mix in Chinese market Growth opportunity for Chinese inverter suppliers in overseas market in 2017 onwards Key takeaways 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.IHS Markit简介Brief introduction to IHS Markit3 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.The worlds largest and most capital-intensive industries rely on IHS More than 75%of the Global Fortune 500More than 70%of the US Fortune 1000Businesses and Governments in150+ countries8,500+ colleagues around the world 4,200+ information and industry experts research analysts and economists 1,500+ software developers, IT architects and IT analysts 140+offices worldwide WE SERVE: OUR RESOURCES: 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Addressing strategic challenges with interconnected capabilities ResourcesFinancialConsolidated Markets & SolutionsTransportation OPERATIONAL RISK& REGULATORY COMPLIANCEDIGITAL & WEB SOLUTIONSMARITIME & TRADEAEROSPACE,DEFENSE &SECURITYAUTOMOTIVE ENGINEERING &PRODUCT DESIGNECONOMICS & COUNTRY RISKENERGYCHEMICALFINANCIAL MARKETS DATA& SERVICESTECHNOLOGY,MEDIA &TELECOM 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.2016年全球光伏逆变器市场回顾Global PV inverter market in 20166 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.2017年中美 日光 伏装机量下降，印度光伏装机上升 79 GW of global installations with upside potential of 85 GW. Final global demand numbers will be heavily influenced by policy evolution in China in the second half of the year. China maintains its position as the largest end market. Big growth of the Indian market again this year. US slows down after 85% of growth in 2016 European and Japanese markets stagnate. Lower system costs support demand growth in new regions and emerging markets7China, 26.8United States, 11.9India, 9.9Japan, 7.4Australia, 1.7Germany, 1.7France, 1.2South Korea, 1.2Turkey, 1.2Brazil, 1.0Rest of World, 14.62017 global PV installations - 10 largest countriesSource: IHS Markit 2017 IHS MarkitGWdc32.5? 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.从 2015年至 2017年，全球前三大光伏逆变器市场销售额占比下降，同期其他地区占比将有所上升05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000US China Japan Rest of World2015 2016 2017Top PV inverter market by revenues from 2015 to 2017 2017 IHS MarkitRevenues($million)Source: IHS Markit8？ 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.2017年 全球逆变器出货量预计将下调，但此后会快速回 调90200004000060000800001000001200002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021EMEA Americas AsiaPV inverter shipments by region 2017 IHS MarkitShipments (MW)Source: IHS Markit 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.2016年国内光伏市场实现超过 10倍增长10051015202530352010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Historical annual PV installations in ChinaSource: IHS Markit 2017 IHS MarkitGWdc 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.中国光伏 装机类型变化 及逆变器 选择趋势Change of installation system type and inverter product mix in Chinese market11 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.至 2019年国内分布式光伏系统占比将超过大型地面电站120%20%40%60%80%100%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021DPV Utility-scale PV stationsPV systems by Distributed PV and Utility-scale PV stations in ChinaSource: IHS Markit 2017 IHS Markit% 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.2017-2021年，中国工商业光伏系统会成为新增长点1302,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,0002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Residential systems Commercial and industrial rooftop systems DPV collocated with other facilities*Distributed PV systems by installation type in ChinaNotes: Include part of the PV-oriented poverty alleviation projects.Source: IHS Markit 2017 IHS MarkitMWdc 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.至 2020年，中国户用光伏市场累计装机量将成为全球第二大市场14 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.国内的逆变器选型新趋势15大步向 200kW单机迈进，广泛在工商业系统得到采用 。新 趋势 ：更加 智能化：增加了组串电压、组件级报错等功能 ；组件级效率优化： 同电源优化器结合，提供组件级效率提升捍卫地面电站首选逆变器地位，并发力水面、漂浮电站新战场 。新 趋势 ：更 大更集成：单机 4.4MW的厢式逆变器 +整合了升压变的厢房 ；发力 分布式：出现了可用于农光渔光互补的集中型逆变器。提高单机功率、降低单位系统台数、 降低线 损。新趋势：同时 出现在三相高功率和三相低功率逆变器中 。从 试用阶段过渡到批量使用阶段，出货量会出现快速上升三相低功率逆变器 (201kW) 1500V逆变器 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.2017-2021年逆变器价格趋势展望 户用屋顶电站的增加会带动单组串逆变器及微型逆变器出货的增加。这两类逆变器的价格将会出现快速下降。 预计 2017年单组串逆变器和微型逆变器的价格将分别达到 0.59元 /瓦和 1.45元 /瓦。 三相低功率逆变器 (200 kW) 同三相高功率逆变器的价差 将快速拉近 。随着此类逆变器被大量用于地面及农光渔光互补型分布式电站，单机功率也在不断变大， 预计 2017年三相低功率逆变器价格将达 0.29元 /瓦。 三相高功率逆变器 (201kW)价格将逐步企稳。两方面因素将支持此类逆变器价格走势。一是降价空间有限。三相高功率逆变器价格已经垫底，供应商让利空间已被大大压缩；二是出现了更大、更集成的大功率逆变器，有助于提高此类逆变器的价格。 预计2017年三相高功率逆变器平均价格将达到 0.16元 /瓦。 预计至 2021年，单组串和微型逆变器价格将会大幅下降；而主力的三相低功率逆变器和高功率逆变器价差将进一步缩小。160.280.250.230.190.170.150.140.140.10 0.090.08 0.070.06 0.060.070.05 0.040.04 0.03 0.030.020.000.050.100.150.200.250.302015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Microinverter Single-phaseThree-phase low power (201 kW)Average price per watt for inverters in China, 2015 to 2021Source: IHS Markit 2017 IHS MarkitPrice($/W)预测价格历史价格 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.国内光伏逆变器厂商如何开拓全球市场？Growth opportunity for Chinese inverter suppliers in overseas market in 2017 onwards17 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.核心市场走弱，新兴市场起步出口市场变化 : 需求明显下降的市场：日本、美国 需求增加的市场：印度、中东产品需求 : 美国和澳大利亚 市场对 储能逆变器 需求增加 印度及其他新兴市场 对 三相高功率逆变器 (201 kW)需求提高 全球 户用光伏市场带动对单组串和微型逆变器的需求18-1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800USARest of AsiaJapanChinaIndiaMiddle EastGermanyRest of EuropeRest of AfricaRest of AmericasChange in PV inverter revenues in top ten markets from 2016 to 2021 2017 IHS MarkitChangeinrevenue ($ million)Source: IHS Markit 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.演讲 提要Key takeaways19 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.演讲摘要 2017年日美 两 国光伏装机量下降，同期印度及新兴市场需求上涨，仅能微幅抵消影响。 2017年开始，全球光伏逆变器销售额将走弱，但随着价格企稳，销售额将会很快恢复增长。 中国持续成为全球最大光伏市场，但 2017年之后的增长面临挑战。 预计 2019年分布式光伏系统新增装机量会超过地面电站装机量。 逆变器选型正随装机类型改变而快速变化。三相低功率逆变器将会在工商业光伏系统中得到更多应用。三相高功率逆变器将积极拓展应用领域和出口市场，可能会保持其大型地面电站首选逆变器类型地位。 核心市场走弱，新兴市场 起步。国内逆变器供应商需根据出口国家选择逆变器类型。20 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 2017 IHS Markit. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. For more information, please contact IHS at customercareihs, +1 800 IHS CARE (from North American locations), or +44 (0) 1344 328 300 (from outside North America). All products, company names or other marks appearing in this publication are the trademarks and property of IHS or their respective owners.联系我们 2017 IHS. All rights reserved. Provided “as is”, without any warranty. This map is not to be reproduced or disseminated and is not to be used nor cited as evidence in connection with any territorial claim. IHS is impartial and not an authority on international boundaries which might be subject to unresolved claims by multiple jurisdictions.谢锋 /Frank Xie高级分析师 光伏逆变器、系统装机Frank.Xieihsmarkit+86 21 2422 9042+86 1851218 9970本讲稿所有数据都来源于：IHS Markit 光 伏逆变器报告套装All data and analysis taken from:IHS PV Inverter Intelligence Service