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MARKETWORLDWIDEMONITORLUXURY2016 SPRING UPDATE2959697 989900 01 02 0304050607 080910111213 1415+13%+1%Current Exch. rateConstantExch. rate77B85B92B 96B108B128B133B133B128B136B147B159B170B167B153B173B192B212B218B224B253BSept 11 SARS Subprime & financial crisis$/ Socio-Economic TurbulenceChinese stock turmoilPERSONAL LUXURY GOOD MARKET 2015E: THE BEGINNING OF A NEW ERA+6%95-15 CAGR15-14 YoY3FOUR CAUSES OF A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING Q4 2015LOWERING TOURISTIC FLOWS IN EUROPEWORSENING TREND IN USHK AND MACAU DRAGGING DOWN ASIAMIDDLE EAST MARKED BY INSTABILITY Lowering consumption from September to holiday season Heavy discounting of department stores impacting sales trend despite volume uplift and jeopardizing brands direct distribution (both bricks and mortar and online) The Paris terroristic attacks strongly affected the holiday season in the city and hampered touristic flows in Europe Other European luxury capitals only partially recovering the lost sales Mainland China improving in the last weeks of the year HK and Macau confirmed high double digit contraction South East Asia improving throughout the year Japan confirmed a very positive performance Middle East weak trend further impacted by socio-political tensions (i.e. Beirut terroristic attack)4Low single digit growth amidst consumers changing purchasing patterns: intercontinental tourism slowdown and recovery of European local spendingAccessories and Jewelry confirming 2015 outperforming trendsApparel trend impacted by struggling Accessible giantsWatches far from recovery+Japan and Korea magnets for Chinese touristsMainland China back to growthEurope counting on resurgence of local customersUS continuing Q4 2015 trend Hong Kong and Macau far from inverting the decline1+ %1Q2016-+Accessories & JewelryBeautyApparelWatches+ Japan & S. Korea+ Europe, M. China& SEA- Americas-RoWHK & Macau5US MARKET IN DECLINE WITH NO SUPPORT OF TOURISTS AND UNEVEN LOCAL DEMANDSLIGHT RECOVERY IN LATAM FOSTERED BY A REPATRIATION OF LOCAL DEMANDCANADA IN GOOD SHAPETERRORISTIC ATTACKS, NEW BIOMETRIC VISA DRIVING THE DECLINE OF TOURISTIC CONSUMPTIONLOCALS RE-APPROCHING LUXURY ACROSS CATEGORIES AND COUNTRIESPOSITIVE TREND OF MAINLAND CHINA BREAKING LAST THREE YEARS DECLINEHONG KONG AND MACAU STILL HIGHLY NEGATIVETAIWAN STEADY GOOD TRENDAMERICASStruggling to deliverEUROPELosing tourists, yet standing on locals recoveryGREATER CHINAA big comeback amidst long-term challenges2016 FULL YEAR OUTLOOK6REST OF ASIAPositive momentumJAPANSustainable (out)performance?ROWTough present, yet big (?) bets for the futureSEA PERFORMING WELL ON INTRA-REGIONAL TOURIST AND LOCAL SHOPPERS, SINGAPORE LAGGING BEHINDSOUTH KOREA MAINTAINING MOMENTUM BOTH ON LOCALS AND ON CHINESE FLOWSCONFIRMED TOP MARKET FOR GROWTH, YET DECELERATING VS. 2015 DUE TO A STRONGER YENLACKLUSTER TREND ON LOCALS CASTING SHADOWS ON THE MARKET IN CASE CHINESES WOULD REDUCEMIDDLE EAST STILL RATHER DEPRESSED WITH STRONG INTEREST ON THE IRAN OPPORTUNITYAUSTRALIA MAINTAINING POSITIVE TRENDALL EYES ON AFRICA2016 FULL YEAR OUTLOOK7GLOBAL LUXURY MARKET EXPECTED TO REPLICATE 2015 PERFORMANCE IN 2016EuropeAmericasJapanAsiaExcl. Mainland ChinaMainland ChinaROWTOTAL2/ 0%- 1/ 1%- +2/4%+ +0/2%+0/2%+5/7%+1/3%+ConstantExch. rate8WITH A LONGER PERSPECTIVE, THE MARKET IS EXPECTED TO GROW AT A MILD PACE TO 2020FRISING CHINESE MIDDLE CLASS AND RECOVERY OF MATURE MARKETS CONSUMERS WILL DRIVE MOST OF THE GROWTHGEN Y & X TO BECOME EVER MORE RELEVANT AS LUXURY CONSUMERSON-LINE TO REMAIN THE “CHAMPION“ FORMAT GROWING AT DOUBLE DIGITSA HEALTHIER MARK-DOWN MARKET WILL REDUCE SALES CANNIBALIZATION THE MARKET WONT RELY ON A CLEAR “CHAMPION“ CATEGORY NOR SEGMENT TO PROPEL GROWTH23%CAGRXY-9HOW WILL THE GLOBAL PERSONAL LUXURY GOODS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN 2020BoutiqueRegionEuropeAmericasJapanChinaRest ofAsiaRoWConsumerNationalityEuropeanAmericanJapaneseChineseRoWConsumerGenerationZYXBabyboomersSilentShopperTypeLocalNonlocalChannelRetailWholesaleAssortmentModelMono-brandMulti-brandFormatMonobrandstoresDeptstoresSpecialtystoresOff-pricestoresOnlineAirportPricingFull PriceMarkdownCategoryApparelHardLuxuryBeautyOtherSegmentAccessibleAspirationalAbsoluteOtherAsianAccessories10MARKET DRIVEN BY CONTINUOUS GROWTH OF CHINESE AND RECOVERY OF MATURE MARKETS CONSUMERSChinese consumers still driving the growth, strongly driven by the boost of the rising middle class2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020Region Consumer Nationality Shopper TypeA more strategic management of international pricing, reducing differentials expected to re-patriate touristic (i.e. Chinese) spendingLocal consumption34%Chinese consumersca.Recovery of mature market consumers spending, expected to be gradually regained thanks to integrated strategies implemented by luxury brands to recover consensus and trustWHERE
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