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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND LIFE IN 2030 ONE HUNDRED YEAR STUDY ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE | REPORT OF THE 2015 STUDY PANEL | SEPTEMBER 2016 PREFACE The One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence, launched in the fall of 2014, is a long-term investigation of the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its influences on people, their communities, and society . It considers the science, engineering, and deployment of AI-enabled computing systems. As its core activity , the Standing Committee that oversees the One Hundred Year Study forms a Study Panel every five years to assess the current state of AI. The Study Panel reviews AIs progress in the years following the immediately prior report, envisions the potential advances that lie ahead, and describes the technical and societal challenges and opportunities these advances raise, including in such arenas as ethics, economics, and the design of systems compatible with human cognition. The overarching purpose of the One Hundred Year Studys periodic expert review is to provide a collected and connected set of reflections about AI and its influences as the field advances. The studies are expected to develop syntheses and assessments that provide expert-informed guidance for directions in AI research, development, and systems design, as well as programs and policies to help ensure that these systems broadly benefit individuals and society . 1The One Hundred Year Study is modeled on an earlier effort informally known as the “ AAAI Asilomar Study .” During 2008-2009, the then president of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), Eric Horvitz, assembled a group of AI experts from multiple institutions and areas of the field, along with scholars of cognitive science, philosophy , and law. Working in distributed subgroups, the participants addressed near-term AI developments, long-term possibilities, and legal and ethical concerns, and then came together in a three-day meeting at Asilomar to share and discuss their findings. A short written report on the intensive meeting discussions, amplified by the participants subsequent discussions with other colleagues, generated widespread interest and debate in the field and beyond. The impact of the Asilomar meeting, and important advances in AI that included AI algorithms and technologies starting to enter daily life around the globe, spurred the idea of a long-term recurring study of AI and its influence on people and society . The One Hundred Year Study was subsequently endowed at a university to enable 1“One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence (AI100),” Stanford University, accessed August 1, 2016,ai100.stanford.edu. The overarching purpose of the One Hundred Year Studys periodic expert review is to provide a collected and connected set of reflections about AI and its influences as the field advances.2 3 As one consequence of the decision to focus on life in North American cities, military applications were deemed to be outside the scope of this initial report. This is not to minimize the importance of careful monitoring and deliberation about the implications of AI advances for defense and warfare, including potentially destabilizing developments and deployments. The report is designed to address four intended audiences. For the general public, it aims to provide an accessible, scientifically and technologically accurate portrayal of the current state of AI and its potential. For industry , the report describes relevant technologies and legal and ethical challenges, and may help guide resource allocation. The report is also directed to local, national, and international governments to help them better plan for AI in governance. Finally , the report can help AI researchers, as well as their institutions and funders, to set priorities and consider the ethical and legal issues raised by AI research and its applications. Given the unique nature of the One Hundred Year Study on AI, we expect that future generations of Standing Committees and Study Panels, as well as research scientists, policy experts, leaders in the private and public sectors, and the general public, will reflect on this assessment as they make new assessments of AIs future. We hope that this first effort in the series stretching out before us will be useful for both its failures and successes in accurately predicting the trajectory and influences of AI. The Standing Committee is grateful to the members of the Study Panel for investing their expertise, perspectives, and significant time to the creation of this inaugural report. We especially thank Professor Peter Stone for agreeing to serve as chair of the study and for his wise, skillful, and dedicated leadership of the panel, its discussions, and creation of the report. Standing Committee of the One Hundred Year Study of Artificial Intelligence Barbara J. Grosz, Chair Russ Altman Eric Horvitz Alan Mackworth Tom Mitchell Deidre Mulligan Yoav Shoham extended deep thought and cross-disciplinary scholarly investigations that could inspire innovation and provide intelligent advice to government agencies and industry . This report is the first in the planned series of studies that will continue for at least a hundred years. The Standing Committee defined a Study Panel charge for the inaugural Study Panel in the summer of 2015 and recruited Professor Peter Stone, at the University of Texas at Austin, to chair the panel. The seventeen-member Study Panel, comprised of experts in AI from academia, corporate laboratories and industry , and AI-savvy scholars in law, political science, policy , and economics, was launched in mid-fall 2015. The participants represent diverse specialties and geographic regions, genders, and career stages. The Standing Committee extensively discussed ways to frame the Study Panel charge to consider both recent advances in AI and potential societal impacts on jobs, the environment, transportation, public safety , healthcare, community engagement, and government. The committee considered various ways to focus the study , including surveying subfields and their status, examining a particular technology such as machine learning or natural language processing, and studying particular application areas such as healthcare or transportation. The committee ultimately chose a thematic focus on “ AI and Life in 2030” to recognize that AIs various uses and impacts will not occur independently of one another, or of a multitude of other societal and technological developments. Acknowledging the central role cities have played throughout most of human experience, the focus was narrowed to the large urban areas where most people live. The Standing Committee further narrowed the focus to a typical North American city in recognition of the great variability of urban settings and cultures around the world, and limits on the first Study Panels efforts. The Standing Committee expects that the projections, assessments, and proactive guidance stemming from the study will have broader global relevance and is making plans for future studies to expand the scope of the project internationally . STUDY PANEL Peter Stone, University of Texas at Austin, Chair Rodney Brooks, Rethink Robotics Erik Brynjolfsson, Massachussets Institute of Technology Ryan Calo, University of Washington Oren Etzioni, Allen Institute for AI Greg Hager, Johns Hopkins University Julia Hirschberg, Columbia University Shivaram Kalyanakrishnan, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay Ece Kamar, Microsoft Research Sarit Kraus, Bar Ilan University Kevin Leyton-Brown, University of British Columbia David Parkes, Harvard University William Press, University of Texas at Austin AnnaLee (Anno) Saxenian, University of California, Berkeley Julie Shah, Massachussets Institute of Technology Milind Tambe, University of Southern California Astro Teller, X Acknowledgments: The members of the Study Panel gratefully acknowledge the support of and valuable input from the Standing Committee, especially the chair, Barbara Grosz, who handled with supreme grace the unenviable role of mediating between two large, very passionate committees. We also thank Kerry Tremain for his tireless and insightful input on the written product during the extensive editing and polishing process, which unquestionably strengthened the report considerably. TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 OVERVIEW 6 SECTION I: WHAT IS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE? 12 Defining AI 12 AI Research Trends 14 SECTION II: AI BY DOMAIN 18 Transportation 18 Home/Service Robots 24 Healthcare 25 Education 31 Low-resource Communities 35 Public Safety and Security 36 Employment and Workplace 38 Entertainment 40 SECTION III: PROSPECTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR AI PUBLIC POLICY 42 AI Policy, Now and in the Future 42 APPENDIX I: A SHORT HISTORY OF AI 504 5 labor is augmented or replaced by AI, creating new challenges for the economy and society more broadly . Application design and policy decisions made in the near term are likely to have long-lasting influences on the nature and directions of such developments, making it important for AI researchers, developers, social scientists, and policymakers to balance the imperative to innovate with mechanisms to ensure that AIs economic and social benefits are broadly shared across society . If society approaches these technologies primarily with fear and suspicion, missteps that slow AIs development or drive it underground will result, impeding important work on ensuring the safety and reliability of AI technologies. On the other hand, if society approaches AI with a more open mind, the technologies emerging from the field could profoundly transform society for the better in the coming decades. Study Panel: Peter Stone, Chair, University of Texas at Austin, Rodney Brooks, Rethink Robotics, Erik Brynjolfsson, Massachussets Institute of Technology, Ryan Calo, University of Washington, Oren Etzioni, Allen Institute for AI, Greg Hager, Johns Hopkins University, Julia Hirschberg, Columbia University, Shivaram Kalyanakrishnan, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Ece Kamar, Microsoft Research, Sarit Kraus, Bar Ilan University. Kevin Leyton-Brown, University of British Columbia, David Parkes, Harvard University, William Press, University of Texas at Austin, AnnaLee (Anno) Saxenian, University of California, Berkeley, Julie Shah, Massachussets Institute of Technology, Milind Tambe, University of Southern California, Astro Teller, X Standing Committee of the One Hundred Year Study of Artificial Intelligence: Barbara J. Grosz, Chair, Russ Altman, Eric Horvitz, Alan Mackworth, Tom Mitchell, Deidre Mulligan, Yoav Shoham EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a science and a set of computational technologies that are inspired bybut typically operate quite differently fromthe ways people use their nervous systems and bodies to sense, learn, reason, and take action. While the rate of progress in AI has been patchy and unpredictable, there have been significant advances since the fields inception sixty years ago. Once a mostly academic area of study , twenty-first century AI enables a constellation of mainstream technologies that are having a substantial impact on everyday lives. Computer vision and AI planning, for example, drive the video games that are now a bigger entertainment industry than Hollywood. Deep learning, a form of machine learning based on layered representations of variables referred to as neural networks, has made speech-understanding practical on our phones and in our kitchens, and its algorithms can be applied widely to an array of applications that rely on pattern recognition. Natural Language Processing (NLP) and knowledge representation and reasoning have enabled a machine to beat the Jeopardy champion and are bringing new power to Web searches. While impressive, these technologies are highly tailored to particular tasks. Each application typically requires years of specialized research and careful, unique construction. In similarly targeted applications, substantial increases in the future uses of AI technologies, including more self-driving cars, healthcare diagnostics and targeted treatments, and physical assistance for elder care can be expected. AI and robotics will also be applied across the globe in industries struggling to attract younger workers, such as agriculture, food processing, fulfillment centers, and factories. They will facilitate delivery of online purchases through flying drones, self-driving trucks, or robots that can get up the stairs to the front door. This report is the first in a series to be issued at regular intervals as a part of the One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence (AI100). Starting from a charge given by the AI100 Standing Committee to consider the likely influences of AI in a typical North American city by the year 2030, the 2015 Study Panel, comprising experts in AI and other relevant areas focused their attention on eight domains they considered most salient: transportation; service robots; healthcare; education; low-resource communities; public safety and security; employment and workplace; and entertainment. In each of these domains, the report both reflects on progress in the past fifteen years and anticipates developments in the coming fifteen years. Though drawing from a common source of research, each domain reflects different AI influences and challenges, such as the difficulty of creating safe and reliable hardware (transportation and service robots), the difficulty of smoothly interacting with human experts (healthcare and education), the challenge of gaining public trust (low-resource communities and public safety and security), the challenge of overcoming fears of marginalizing humans (employment and workplace), and the social and societal risk of diminishing interpersonal interactions (entertainment). The report begins with a reflection on what constitutes Artificial Intelligence, and concludes with recommendations concerning AI-related policy . These recommendations include accruing technical expertise about AI in government and devoting more resourcesand removing impedimentsto research on the fairness, security , privacy , and societal impacts of AI systems. Contrary to the more fantastic predictions for AI in the popular press, the Study Panel found no cause for concern that AI is an imminent threat to humankind. No machines with self-sustaining long-term goals and intent have been developed, nor are they likely to be developed in the near future. Instead, increasingly useful applications of AI, with potentially profound positive impacts on our society and economy are likely to emerge between now and 2030, the period this report considers. At the
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