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Citi is one of the worlds largest financial institutions, operating in all major established and emerging markets. Across these world markets, our employees conduct an ongoing multi-disciplinary global conversation accessing information, analyzing data, developing insights, and formulating advice for our clients. As our premier thought-leadership product, Citi GPS is designed to help our clients navigate the global economys most demanding challenges, identify future themes and trends, and help our clients profit in a fast-changing and interconnected world. Citi GPS accesses the best elements of our global conversation and harvests the thought leadership of a wide range of senior professionals across our firm. This is not a research report and does not constitute advice on investments or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. For more information on Citi GPS, please visit our website at citi/citigps.Citi GPS: Global Perspectives and (2) two of the largest U.S. FinTech VC funding rounds in 2016 were in the health insurance space. Big data, the Internet of Things (IoT), and wearable devices, among other trends, will help insurance companies use FinTech to be more creative and customized. So far the InsurTech focus is more about improving distribution efficiency and user experience, as with much B2C FinTech in general. Lending hasnt gone away. Our VC contributors for this report remain enthusiastic about peer-to-peer lending as an opportunity, especially in China or emerging markets where it is about financial inclusion and accessing underserved clients. By contrast, in the U.S. it has often been a (sub-prime/near-prime) credit card debt consolidation play. Lending accounts for about 80% of 9M 2016 VC FinTech investments ex-U.S. but if we exclude Asia from our data (basically China), then the share of lending drops to sub-30%. Europe remains a laggard for start-ups/VC investing at about 10% of global FinTech VC investment in 2015-16. This is not a big surprise as Europe has a smaller VC market versus the U.S., it has none of the large technology/Internet companies that exist in the U.S. or China and its banking system (despite the sectors weak stock prices, earnings and capital challenges of the past decade) offers more of a full-service provision versus U.S. or Chinese peers. European banks are among the top investors in VC-backed FinTech companies led by Spanish banks Banco Santander and BBVA (if we include Propel Ventures). European banks are increasingly interested in FinTech and with more bank investors and affiliates, we will see more of a shift to business-to-business (B2B). In 2017 we expect more focus on B2B FinTech topics, such as Artificial Intelligence, especially in London which is a hotspot with DeepMind and its concentration of universities; regulatory tech both in the U.K. and the U.S.; and cybersecurity primarily in the U.S. and Israel. Back in the business-to-consumer (B2C) world, 2017 will also be the year when the Chinese dragons continue to make progress in expanding outside their home market, albeit this will not be the strategic “Blue Ocean“ that China was a decade ago. The simple call for us to make is that Alipay will grow internationally as it follows the ongoing expansion of overseas Chinese tourism. The harder call is how many non-Chinese clients will Chinese companies like Ant Financial and WeChat gain in payments and associated products. In the second half of this report, we switch from our analytical conclusions to highlights from our discussions in recent months with eight leading FinTech VCS who are based across the world and in many of the key FinTech industry hotspots. We asked the eight VCs to nominate their favorite business models: (1) Payments, especially e-commerce payments, can reap large economy of scale (2) Lending is still popular especially among emerging markets (3) Shift in interest in B2B business models in developed markets (4) InsurTech is gaining momentum in the U.S. 2017 CitigroupANNUAL PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN GLOBAL FINTECH COMPANIES CONTINUES TO GROW, HELPED BY SOME MEGADEALS IN CHINAChinese Dragons Roared in 2016 as West Continues to EvolveAnnual Global Investments in Global FinTech CompaniesSource: Citi Research and CB Insights20112010Dollar InvestedVenture CapitalOther Investment Annualization Adjustment20122013201420152016$2.0 bn$2.1 bn$2.5 bn$4.0 bn$12.1 bn$14.5 bn$4.6 bn$10.2 bn$7.8 bn$2.9 bnCHINAS SHARE OF THE GLOBAL FINTECH VENTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENTS HAS MORE THAN DOUBLED IN 2016VC Investment by GeographyEnd-September 2016201546%10%19%14%11%U.S.AsiaChinaEurope56% 41%U.S.AsiaChinaEurope3%Source: CB Insights, Citi ResearchIN THE U.S., VENTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENTS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM LENDING AND TOWARDS NEW AREAS SUCH AS INSURANCE AND WEALTH MANAGEMENTU.S. VC Investment into FinTechINVESTMENT IS SHIFTING TOWARDS BUSINESS-TO-BUSINESS (B2B) IN THE U.S. WHILE CHINA CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON BUSINESS-TO-CONSUMER (B2C) BASED BUSINESS MODELS AS THE VAST OPPORTUNITIES IN CONSUMER FINANCE REMAIN UNTAPPED BY BANK INCUMBENTS.ChinaLending58% 20%Payments 11% 14%Blockchain3% 8%0% 34%Others Insurance Wealth Management0% 7%28% 17%20162015FinTech investment split based on number of companies that raised VC finding in 9M 2016North America B2B B2C11%44%56%Source: CB Insights, Citi Research89%Source: CB Insights, Citi Research 2017 Citigroup 6 Contents Digital Disruption - Revisited 7 FinTech Flows 7 Chinese Dragons 9 How Unique is China? 13 Ant Financial: From Payments to a Personal Finance One-Stop Shop 16 Social Finance, Invisible Finance 17 Lending is Dead Long Live Lending 19 P2P Regulation in China 21 U.S.: InsurTech, Healthcare and Others 23 Europe Irrelevant for FinTech VC Investing? 25 2017 and Beyond Outlook 28 From B2C and B2B AI and Big Data, RegTech, Cybersecurity 28 Artificial Intelligence, Advanced Analytics & Big Data 30 Banks Uber Moment 34 RegTech to Address Rising Compliance Costs 38 Cybersecurity 42 Geographic Expansion 44 Preferred Business Models by Interviewed VCs 46 Interview with IDG Capital 47 About IDG Capital China-Focused 47 About Douglas Jiang 47 IDG Capital Q&A with Douglas Jiang 47 China-specific 53 Interview with Arbor Ventures 55 About Arbor Ventures Asia-Focused 55 About Melissa Guzy 55 Arbor Ventures Q&A with Melissa Guzy 56 Interview with Dymon Asia Ventures 59 About Dymon Asia Ventures ASEAN-Focused 59 About Christiaan Kaptein 59 Dymon Asia Q&A with Christiaan Kaptein 59 Interview with Citi Ventures 64 About Citi Ventures U.S.-Focused 64 About Arvind Purushotham 64 Citi Ventures Q&A with Arvind Purushotham 65 Interview with Propel Venture Partners 73 About Propel Venture Partners U.S.-Focused 73 About Jay Reinemann 74 Propel Venture Partners Q&A with Jay Reinemann 74 Interview with NFT Ventures 78 About NFT Ventures (Northern European-Focused 78 About Johan Lundberg 78 NFT Ventures Q&A with Johan Lundberg 78 Interview with Vostok Emerging Finance 83 About Vostok Emerging Finance EM-Focused 83 About David Nangle 83 Vostok Emerging Finance Q&A with David Nangle 84 Interview with BECO Capital (Middle East- and North Africa- Focused) 90 About BECO Capital 90 About Amir Farha 90 BECO Capital Q&A with Amir Farha 91 2017 Citigroup 7 Digital Disruption - Revisited FinTech Flows 2016 was a year when the Chinese dragons roared and some previously feted FinTech leaders wilted. Global FinTech investments reached $18 billion in the first nine months of the year, close to the $19 billion dollars invested in 2015, benefitting from some mega deals such as Ant Financials $4.5 billion private fund raising in the second quarter of 2016 (part of the $7.8 billion non-VC private investments in FinTech during 9M 2016) and a few large VC investments in Chinese FinTech in the first quarter of 2016. Total VC-only funding for FinTech slowed in 2016 versus 2015 (Figure 1). This reflected the more cautious stance of VC investors in light of a volatile public stock market in the first half of 2016, especially for U.S.-quoted FinTech lenders, concerns around a flood of capital inflow into the sector and some questionable valuations. Overall full year 2016 FinTech VC funding is likely to be down year-over-year. Adding non-VC private investments, we estimate there was a small increase in total global FinTech investments for the year. Figure 1. Annual Private Investments in Global FinTech Companies 2010-2016 ($bn) Note: Other private investments include funding by angel investors, private equity mutual and hedge funds and corporates. Annualized 2016 total FinTech investments assume 4Q16 investments equal 3Q16. Source: Citi and CIB Insights Within the global picture of slowing FinTech growth, 2016 was characterized by some dramatic geographic shifts. Asia has overtaken North America as the number one FinTech investment destination driven by the Chinese dragons. We estimate VC investments doubled in China in 2016 versus 2015 while they declined 38% in the U.S. and 27% in Europe. Asia ex-China experienced almost a three-quarters decline in VC FinTech investing due to slower funding activity to India (a big driver for 2015). Figure 2. Change in Global VC Funding into FinTech by Geography (2016E vs. 2015) Note: 2016 total VC funding is estimated based on 9-month 2016 actual funding plus an estimate for 4Q16 which is assumed to be the same as 3Q16. Source: Citi and CB Insights 2.0 2.1 2.5 4.012 . 1 14 . 5 10 . 24.67.82.905101520252010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 9M 16D ol l ar I nve st ed VC O t he r P r i vat e I nve st m en t A nn ua l i zed104%- 27% - 38%- 73%C hi na E urope US A si a ex C hi na 2017 Citigroup 8 Furthermore, the funding mix is changing beyond VCs as the sole large funding source. “Other private“ funding including private equity, mutual funds, hedge funds and corporates are increasingly important. Ant Financials $4.5 billion funding round in the second quarter of 2016 was the largest private sector technology funding round ever. The funding didnt come from VC investors but from existing shareholders, including some of Chinas biggest insurance companies, China Post Group, private equity firm Primavera Capital Group and China Development Bank Capital, according to the Wall Street Journal (link here). Figure 3. Quarterly Investments in Global FinTech Companies 1Q 2011-3Q 2016 * Other private investments include funding by angel investors, private equity, mutual and hedge funds, and corporates. Source: Citi and CB Insights Just as the geographic focus on FinTech investing shifted in 2016 from the U.S. to China, with momentum and overall funds invested putting the latter in pole position, the product focus of the fund flows changed as well. The 2016 product picture was split between lending, which dominated Chinese VC funding, and insurance, a key sector for U.S. VC funding. Lending dominated VC investing with two-thirds of global VC funds invested but if we add the second quarter 2016 private funding round of Ant Financial, payments would account for about 50% of the 9M 2016 global FinTech investments. 2.55.24.91.94.92.92.40.42.11.71.20.86.50.52.97.36.63.15.79.42.90123456789101Q 15 2Q 15 3Q 15 4Q 15 1Q 16 2Q 16 3Q 16VC Inves tments Other P r i v ate Inv e s tme nts * 2017 Citigroup 9 Figure 4. Global FinTech VC Investments by Product, 9M 2016 Figure 5. Global ex-Asia FinTech VC Investments by Product, 9M 2016 Figure 6. Global ex-North America FinTech VC Investments by Product, 9M 2016 Based on 68 largest FinTech VC funding rounds in 2016 Source: CB Insights, Citi Research Based on 50 largest FinTech VC funding rounds in 2016 Source: CB Insights, Citi Research Based on 27 largest FinTech VC funding rounds in 2016 Source: CB Insights, Citi Research If we look at trends outside Asia, InsurTech was the big new development of the year, making up 41% of global ex-Asia VC investments in the first nine months of the year. Interestingly, lending was only 28% of total VC funding outside of Asia, no doubt impacted by a few well-publicized U.S. challenges. This is a change. In 2015, lending was the largest product destination for global FinTech funding (almost half the total) driven by the U.S. Insurance was not material in 2015 U.S. funding, albeit it featured in the rest of the world. These rapidly changing trends are a good reminder that FinTech investing is still at an early stage. Chinese Dragons In our first FinTech GPS report we argued that China was very important to the FinTech story (link to GPS). It is the home of consumer FinTech adoption as measured by client numbers. Tencents WeChat has over 800 million monthly active users and Alibabas Alipay has over 400 million. The number of mobile wallet users in China exceeds or rivals retail customer numbers of the largest Chinese banks. The leadership role of China in FinTech is reflected in the 2016 investment flows data which shows Chinas share of global FinTech VC investments up to 46% in 9M 2016 from just 19% in 2015. China accounted for over 50% of total FinTech investments in 9M 2016 if we include non-VC other private investments (corporate, private equity etc.). Figure 7. VC Investments by Geography, 2015 Figure 8. VC Investments by Geography, 9M 2016 Source: CB Insights, Citi Research Source: CB Insights, Citi Research Len di ng60%In s ura nc e13%Payments14%Blo ck ch ai n3%W eal th Manag ement2%Mobil e Bank in g1%Others7%Lend ing22%Ins ura nc e31%Paym ent s15%Blo ck ch ai n7%W eal th Manag ement6%M obi le Bank in g3%Others16%Len di ng81%Ins ura nc e1%Paym ent s14%Blo ck ch ai n1%Mobil e Bank in g2%Others1%U . S . 56%E urope11%A si a ex C hi na14%C hi na19%U . S .41%E urope10%A si a ex C hi na3%Chi na46% 2017 Citigroup 10 Calling the leading Chinese companies “dragons” isnt just colorful. It is also a very good reflection of their large size both in terms of funding rounds and implied total valuations. China FinTech investments are big per deal. Seven of the top 10 FinTech VC rounds in 9M 2016 were Chinese (Figure 9-Figure 10). Three Chinese FinTech companies Lu, JD Finance and Qufenqi are at the top of the global league table with VC funding rounds that raised $1.2 billion, $1.0 billion and $0.45 billion respectively. And that is before we count the giant non-VC private funding round at Ant Financial at $4.5 billion. Figure 9. Top 10 FinTech VC Rounds, 9M 2016 ($m) Source: CB Insights and Citi Research. Dark green represents the company is based in Asia and light green means the company is based in North America. -2 004 0 06 008 0 01 ,0 0 01 ,2 0 01 ,4 0 0L u .co m JD Fi n a n ce Qu fe n q i Osca rHea l t hIn su ran ce5 1 X inyo n g ka Fen q il e Cl o ve rHea l t hW e labHold ing sW e ida i A ff i rm
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