融合现实（英文版）.pdf

An Ericsson Consumer Insight Summary Report June 2017ERICSSON CONSUMERLABMERGEDREALITY Understanding how virtual and augmented realities could transform everyday realityDefinitions used in the studyEarly adopters:Current users of fixed VR headsets who use VR several times a week. Given that this was an early adopters sample, they represented 15 percent of the sample. (Mobile only VR users were not included, since they have more casual usage.)Laggards:Currently non-users of VR, and not interested in using it in the future. This group represented 15 percent of the sample. VR: Virtual Reality AR: Augmented RealityEricsson ConsumerLab has more than 20 years experience of studying peoples behaviors and values, including the way they act and think about ICT products and services. Ericsson ConsumerLab provides unique insights on market and consumer trends.Ericsson ConsumerLab gains its knowledge through a global consumer research program based on interviews with 100,000 individuals each year, in more than 40 countries and 15 megacities statistically representing the views of 1.1 billion people.Both quantitative and qualitative methods are used, and hundreds of hours are spent with consumers from different cultures. To be close to the market and consumers, Ericsson ConsumerLab has analysts in all regions where Ericsson is present, developing a thorough global understanding of the ICT market and business models.METHODOLOGYthe voice of the consumerContents4. TowARDS A mERgED REALITy5. ChAngE wILL SpAn SIx DomAInS7. UnLImITED LEARnIng AnD TRAVEL8. LADEn wITh ChALLEngES 10. AR wILL InTEgRATE VR11. 5g ExpECTATIonS2 ERICSSON CONSUMERLAB MERGED REALITY 2017Qualitative study Group discussions in virtual reality (VR): Ericsson ConsumerLab innovatively conducted one of the first known qualitative focus group discussion series completely in VR, using an HTC Vive in an online environment called Altspace VR. Participants were from different parts of North America and Europe. In addition to the VR focus group, we also performed two traditional focus groups with current users of VR from Japan and South Korea. We also ran a series of qualitative VR tests with 20 Ericsson employees to understand how lag in VR can trigger nausea. We simulated three different levels of testing: VR set-up with no lag, with medium lag and one with increased lag. The aim was to understand how the VR experience was impacted when the lag is altered, and the corresponding threshold of tolerance for these consumers.Quantitative study This report presents insights from the online survey of 9,200 consumers in France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, the UK and the US. Respondents were aged 15-69, and were aware of the concept of VR. We believe that in order to understand the potential impact of VR on human experiences, it was essential that the respondents were aware of VR. Currently, VR is something that only a proportion of the population are familiar with this sample represents 51 million smartphone users who are aware of VR, out of over 800 million living in these 8 markets.As an innovation in qualitative research, we conducted focus group discussions in VRConsumers who are planning to use a headset:Currently non-users of VR, but interested in using it in the future. This group represented 49 percent of the sample. All reports can be found at: ericsson/consumerlabmedia is already being transformed. Consumers expect virtual screens to start replacing televisions and theatres in less than a year As many as half the early adopters have already increased their video usage in VR. More than a third have shifted some of their video viewing on physical screens to video experiences in VR2Transforming everyday reality with VR and AR Incorporating technology into our everyday lives is quickly becoming the norm. The World Economic Forum calls the idea of merging the real with the digital the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Virtual and augmented realities could encourage a similar technological revolution one where consumers transition between virtual and physical worlds effortlessly for their everyday life activities. However, in their current form, virtual and augmented technologies collide rather than merge with our physical reality. Today the bulky headsets cut off the user from their surroundings, as well as hinder mobility, and a highly interactive VR experience can induce nausea for some users. Consumers expect next-generation networks like 5G to address these challenges and enrich shared experiences by providing a fast and high-bandwidth network.In this Ericsson ConsumerLab report, we explore the impact of these imminent changes on consumer lifestyles, from the perspective of early adopters, laggards and consumers who are planning to use a headset in the future. We also look at the enabling role that next-generation networks like 5G could play.ERICSSON CONSUMERLAB MERGED REALITY 2017 3key findings 7 out of 10 early adopters expect VR/AR to change everyday life fundamentally in six domains: media, education, work, social interaction, travel and retail Two in five early adopters believe classrooms and offices will be replaced by virtual spaces. A quarter think AR will enable travel information and map overlays onto our physical environments by next year Half of early adopters expect AR and VR to be integrated in one device, as a pair of AR glasses with in-built VR capabilities Even laggards expect VR/AR to deliver new ways of training in industries like air travel, national security and healthcare1Lack of mobility, bulky headsets and network lag keep merged reality at bay One in five early adopters have already decreased their usage of VR Half the early adopters believe that the current VR headsets hinder mobility. Almost a fifth also consider sickness caused by VR to be an issue Even mobile VR users restrict usage mostly to home. Mobility is hindered by battery drain and the fact that the headset blocks the users view3For merged reality to become mainstream, 5g is central to provide mobility, improve social experiences and address nausea More than a third of early adopters expect 5G to make VR mobile by providing a stable, fast and high-bandwidth network 30 percent believe that 5G will enable more social experiences and will also improve the battery efficiency of devices A quarter of early adopters expect 5G to address the nausea and sickness in VR4Virtual and augmented realities could encourage a technological revolution where consumers transition between virtual and physical worlds effortlessly for their everyday life activities4 ERICSSON CONSUMERLAB MERGED REALITY 2017TOWARDS A MERGED REALITY There are a number of examples of consumers being offered experiences that merge their physical reality with virtual experiences, challenging traditional notions of real experiences. The location-based, augmented reality game Pokmon Go allows players to catch virtual pocket monsters on streets, parks and subway stations. Global hotelier Marriott teleports its guests to exotic locations virtually, allowing them to decide on a vacation spot. The Guinness World Records book allows readers to have their picture taken with the worlds shortest man through an AR-enriched app and send it to friends and family. When the boundaries between peoples perception of physical and virtual reality start to blur, this could result in a drastic impact on lives and society. The way we live, work and consume information and media may fundamentally change. Consumers could stop buying TV sets, for example, and choose a virtual screen instead. Physical spaces like offices and changing rooms in clothing stores may be replaced by virtual spaces. Surfing the web may be transformed from clicking links to walking through virtual portals. The virtual world may no longer remain the ultimate form of isolation or escapism, but could become the social network of the future. From the early adopters surveyed, three in five believe VR will change everyday activities, such as video viewing and social networking. Even among current non-users of VR, almost half of the consumers who are planning to use a headset believe that VR has the potential to create a significant impact in the future. Almost half of the early adopters believe VR could replace physical devices like HD TVs, big screens, smartphones and laptops, and nearly a third of the consumers who are planning to use a headset also believe so.Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab, Merged Reality, 2017 Base: Smartphone users aged 15-69 across 8 markets who currently use tethered VR headsets at least several times a week or plan to use a VR headset in the futureThose planning to use a headsetEarly adopters of VRFigure 1: Physical spaces and devices that VR could replace42%Offices Movie theatres Classrooms Showrooms (in shopping malls)Megastores HD TVs Big screens in generalSmartphones Monitors/PCs/laptops55%44%39%40%52%49%51%49%26%50%35%32%30%35%42%30%42%Everyones going to do everything that they do on their personal computers, tablets and smartphones, in virtual reality.”David, Canada, VR focus group discussionThe way we live, work and consume information and media may fundamentally changeI remember when there were no microwave ovens and the first oven was introduced I put a potato in it and it cooked in just five minutes. VR is revolutionary like that, extremely revolutionary. It will be something that changes everything.”John, US, VR focus group discussionERICSSON CONSUMERLAB MERGED REALITY 2017 5Virtual and augmented reality have the potential to impact many domains and activities. Recent developments have already seen VR and AR evolve beyond gaming. The US presidential elections were streamed live in VR and seen by VR users from around the globe, gathered as crowds in shared spaces. President Obama bid goodbye to his fans through a VR tour of the White House. VR applications today span music, movie releases and previews, travel, shopping, journalism and, of course, social networking. For example, Facebook Spaces is a social VR app that lets you hang out with others inside your headset. In the qualitative part of this study, consumers told us they expect VR/AR to change six domains the most media, education, work, social interaction, tourism and retail. In the quantitative phase, we then found an astounding 7 out of 10 early adopters expect VR/AR to change these 6 domains fundamentally. Furthermore, as many believe that VR/AR will become mainstream in all six domains. This impact already goes beyond current early adopters: even among those planning to use a VR headset in the future, as many as 6 out of 10 believe that the education, media and work domains will be changed fundamentally.CHANGE WILL SPAN SIX DOMAINS Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab, Merged Reality, 2017 Base: Smartphone users aged 15-69 across 8 markets who currently use tethered VR headsets atleast several times a weekFigure 2: Disruption in media has already begun7 in 10 believe that VR/AR will become mainstream in media, education, work, social interaction, tourism and retailHave shifted some video viewing to video experiences in VR 37%Have shifted some flat screen gaming to games in VR30%Have shifted some social networking to social experiences in VR22%Leading digital transformation When the internet first arrived, media was among the first domains to be transformed. Now consumers expect media consumption to change just as rapidly with the mainstream adoption of VR and AR. In fact, we are already witnessing VR starting to transform the media domain. Close to half of early adopters have already increased their VR video usage since the time they started using it. Thirty-seven percent of early adopters have started shifting their video viewing to VR. Among the frequent mobile VR users, as many are watching videos as are playing games on a daily basis. Those who are planning to use a headset in the future believe watching videos in VR will be one of their top activities even more than gaming. More than a quarter of early adopters believe that, within a year, they will be watching movies on virtual screens without owning anything other than a VR headset. More than half of them predict video viewing will be the most popular activity in VR. Over a quarter of laggards are also open to watching content on a virtual screen without having to go to a theatre or owning a physical screen. Socializing in virtual reality Another unique aspect of video viewing in VR is the ability to combine it with social networking. Today, its possible to watch media with friends in VR application rooms like Bigscreen and AltspaceVR. A participant in one of our VR focus group discussions said, “The money here is going to be in the concert industry . I can watch my favorite band with integration between a fully immersive VR experience and 360 degree streaming camera, with hundreds of others from around the globe”. Live streaming of concerts and sporting events could potentially be a huge application for VR in the media space. Sixty percent of early adopters expect that interactive music concerts and events in VR will be mainstream in the next three years.Ironically, there are simultaneous positives and negatives to VR. On one hand we meet a lot more people in the virtual environment, while on the other we may be isolated from people in our physical environment due to the nature of the current VR headsets. While 51 percent of early adopters believe video viewing in VR will be popular since it can combine social networking with video, 38 percent also believe video viewing in VR will be challenging because it can only be done alone.6 ERICSSON CONSUMERLAB MERGED REALITY 2017Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab, Merged Reality, 2017 Base: Smartphone users aged 15-69 across 8 markets who currently use tethered VR headsets at least several times a week or plan to use a VR headset in the futureSource: Ericsson ConsumerLab, Merged Reality, 2017 Base: Smartphone users aged 15-69 across 8 markets who currently use tethered VR headsets at least several times a weekThose who are planning to use a headset Between 1-3 years from nowEarly adopters Within a yearFigure 3: The use of VR with video Figure 4: Share of early adopters who expect their media consumption to change in the following ways54%51%53%38%33%VR devices will be the new screens for videoVideo in VR will be popular since it will combine social networkingVideo will be one of the most popular uses of VRVideo in VR will be restricted since I can only do it aloneVideo in VR will be restricted due to poor resolution32%28%Watching video content on a virtual screen without owning a physical screen39%28%24%Immersive, interactive experience of movies41%33%23%Watching videos with people from around the world in a virtual environment36%28%22%Participating in interactive music concerts and other