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Lands of Opportunity Unleashing the full potential of natural climate solutions #Nature4ClimateAbout this document This document is intended to inform and support decision makers as they look to understand and maximize the opportunity that natural climate solutions can provide, across both public and private sectors. It does this by building on a strong scientific framework for action on natural climate solutions, and using case studies throughout to provide proof-points such decision makers could leverage. It aims to be sufficiently broad so that actors across all key geographies and biomes can identify the best strategies for their own areas. Acknowledgments It builds on the work of decades of study in land use by organizations too numerous to mention. Particular thanks goes to: James Madison University, Woods Hole Research Center, The Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, TerraCarbon, Cornell University, Resources for the Future, Colorado State University, World Resources Institute, Conservation International, the University of Minnesota, the University of Florida, Wetlands International, the University of Vermont, Vivid Economics and Poyry. Generous funding has been provided by the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation and the Childrens Investment Fund Foundation. 2017 The Nature Conservancy. Printed in the UK on Forest Stewardship Council certified paper. Contact: infonature4climate Published: November, 2017 Front image: Robert Walls, part of the chocker setters/ rigging crew at Ellsworth, choke logs to be yarded at the preserve. Chris Crisman Inside double image: Field biologists prepare to collect specimens in Dye Creek Preserve, part of the Lassen Foothills project where restorative land management and conservation-compatible ranching techniques are administered by The Nature Conservancy on behalf of the state of California. Ian Shive Back inner image: Nealla Frederick, Eastern Caribbean Conservation Planner with the Conservancy holds a young red mangrove shoot, in Levera National Park. Tim Calver We will not find an adequate response to climate change if we ignore how we manage the lands of the worldour forests, farms and coasts. The science is clear. The land is responsible for a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions. But if better managed, it can provide more than a third of the carbon reductions needed to keep warming well below 2C, the target agreed at the Paris climate talks. The imperative of realizing these carbon reductions becomes even more pronounced if we are to limit warming to 1.5C. Renewable energy, energy efficiency and cleaner transport are vital as well. But, the truth is that we cannot prevent the worst of climate change without having all solutions on the table. We need clean energy and natural climate solutions. With the development of remote sensing and soil bio-geochemical models, we are only now beginning to fully grasp the potential of the land to address climate change. We call the range of opportunities, natural climate solutions. They are economic, scalable, and crucially they are available now and almost everywhere on the planet. They offer co-benefits, including rural regeneration, improved food and water security, coastal resilience and biodiversity protection, and can help communities adapt to climate change. Realizing the potential of natural climate solutions will not be easy. Forests, farms and coasts vary greatly in size, type and location. The lives of hundreds of millions of individuals are tied up with them in many different ways. Strategies such as restoring forest cover or improving soil health require a different set of actions from reducing tropical deforestation or reviving mangroves. But as with energy, there is a broad set of opportunities that if pursued concertedly can help to take us in the right direction. Progress is already being made. The number of commitments to natural climate solutions has grown rapidly at the international, national and subnational level. There have been great advances in measuring and monitoring greenhouse gas fluxes in landscapes. New financing mechanisms for carbon and other ecosystem service payments are emerging, some accessing mainstream capital markets on a sizable scale. Many groups have been active individually in natural climate solutions over the years particularly the conservation movement. But weve always known that the size of the task demands the combined action of multiple partiesgovernments, civil society, businesses, indigenous peoples and other communities. The urgency of the challenge and the opportunities the land sector offer make it time to finally unify fragmented efforts. Together well be able to unlock the full potential of natural climate solutions across the world, and catalyze funding for better land use in the process. The science tells us we have no time to waste. Please join us in consolidating this front against climate change.Foreword Justin Adams The Nature Conservancy, Global Managing Director Lands 5Contents Foreword Contents What are natural climate solutions? Rethinking land use Why now: the time is ripe 1. Political leadership 2. Private sector progress: a. Zero-deforestation supply chains b. Constructive climate role for forestry c. Opportunities for agriculture d. New wave of naturetech enterprise e. Unlocking new financial flows for land use 3. Strong models from indigenous communities 4. Strong scientific understanding 2018: Year for action Nature4Climate 5 7 9 12 21 22 23 23 24 26 27 28 28 31 32 34 7 Left: An aerial view of Clayoquot Sound, on the west coast of Vancouver Island in the Canadian province of British Columbia. Bryan EvansWhat are natural climate solutions? Cutting emissions from all sectors is essential, including land use. Natural climate solutions are proven ways of storing and reducing carbon emissions in the worlds forests, grasslands and wetlands. Better stewardship of the land also has impact on other critical environmental, social and economic benefits, which are less well understood. These solutions are available immediately, are scalable and can transform key sectors of the global economy, such as forestry and agriculture. A peer-reviewed study, led by scientists from The Nature Conservancy and 15 other institutions 1 , and published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), expanded and refined the scope of land-based climate solutions previously assessed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) 2 . The PNAS paper says that natural climate solutions can deliver 37% of cost-effective carbon dioxide mitigation needed by 2030 for a greater than 66% chance of holding global warming below 2C this century. 9 These solutions are available immediately, are scalable and can transform key sectors of the global economy, such as forestry and agricultureas well as having many other social and environmental benefits. Fishing guide and Yurok tribal member, Pergish Carlson in northern California. Kevin ArnoldAvoided habitat conversion: Rising demand for food and other natural resources has seen the large-scale conversion of natural habitats such as forests, grasslands, scrublands and wetlands for agriculture and aquaculture. Infrastructure and urban development add further pressure. Habitat conversion releases carbon otherwise stored in plants and soils. It also diminishes the capacity of land to function as a carbon sink, as rich ecosystems are degraded or lost altogether. Blue carbon: Blue carbon is stored or sequestered in the soil or biomass of coastal wetlands such as saltmarshes, seagrass meadows and mangrove forests, or is carbon released by the destruction of those ecosystems. These can store up to four times more carbon than terrestrial forests per unit area 3 . Conserving and restoring these valuable environments can significantly improve carbon mitigation and localized resilience to the impacts of climate change, as well as securing peoples livelihoods. These measures also help increase protection for coastal communities threatened by storm events. While traditional gray infrastructure like levees and seawalls are common, nature can provide some of the most cost-effective protection: just 100 meters of mangrove trees can reduce wave height by 66 percent. Indigenous leadership: Indigenous peoples living traditional lifestyles commonly have a rich understanding of the environment. They are custodians of the lands across which they have hunted, gathered and farmed for generations. The contribution they can make in delivering sustainable land management practices for both protection and economic production benefit is considerable. CONSERVATION OPPORTUNITIES Natural climate solutions help reduce carbon emissions and store more carbon in the landscape. These solutions are often complex and interconnected: one needs a holistic view across and within landscapes to see the overlaps. They can deliver both significant adaptation and mitigation benefits. Natural climate solutions What are natural climate solutions?Improved forestry: Smarter ways of managing plantations and other working forests can improve their productivity, just as they can benefit the climate. Removing competing vegetation, more sensitive logging practices and longer cycles between harvests can promote tree growth. These and other enhanced natural forest management practices can be applied across the 1.9 billion hectares of production forest globally 4 . Reforestation & restoration: The rich and dense ecosystems of tropical and temperate forests are highly effective carbon sinks. Turning less productive and otherwise unused lands into forests and enriching existing forest cover can capture and store gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. Demand for sustainable wood: Demand for timber is set to double or even triple through to 2050 5 . Ensuring that sustainable forestry meets this demand can create and enhance valuable carbon sinks, while generating jobs and economic growth. Fire management: Every year, wildfires clear millions of hectares of woodland and other vegetation, releasing huge amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. The number and severity of fires increases with rising temperatures. Controlled burning, including traditional fire management by indigenous groups, where possible reduces the frequency of catastrophic fires, while helping to reduce fire risk to people and nature. Timber can also help displace carbon-intensive alternatives, from concrete in construction to plastics in packaging. SCALING FORESTRY & WOOD PRODUCTION Soil health: There is a high correlation between soil health and agricultural resilience. Soils store significant amounts of carbon. The amount varies according to farm practices and the biological health of soils. But the degradation of soils undermines the productivity of farmers and resilience of croplands. Correspondingly, enriching soils through smarter agricultural practices such as more efficient use of fertilizers can deliver a triple win: greater carbon retention, higher crop yields and lower costs. Zero-deforestation supply chain: The vast majority of goods from food to furniture require natural materials in the supply chain. Demand for consumer goods has been a principal driver of deforestation. Working with companies to eliminate the use of uncertified sources of timber helps keep precious carbon stores intact and creates opportunities for climate-smart approaches to producing materials. Food production and waste: A third of all food produced is wasted, amounting to about 1.3 billion tonnes a year 6 . The greenhouse gas emissions from food waste are greater than those of any country with the exception of China and the US 7 . In addition as global population and incomes rise, demand for meat grows. The livestock sector is a net emitter, responsible for an estimated 14.5 percent of all man-made greenhouse gas emissions 8 . AGRICULTURE THAT WORKS FOR PLANET AND PEOPLE What are natural climate solutions?Rapid decarbonization of energy sector alone is insufficient The Paris agreement stands as a huge achievement in the response to climate changedespite the proposed US withdrawal. Successful delivery of the Paris goals requires governments to honor their existing commitments, to adopt new opportunities to reduce emissions, and to move on these as quickly as possible. For years, renewable energy, energy efficiency and cleaner transport have been the principle means of decarbonization. They have also seen considerable progress. We would however need emissions from fossil fuels to be net zero by 2040 to meet the Paris climate goalsa desirable but perhaps near-impossible event. Attention is therefore turning to land use. To date, the focus has mainly been on reducing emissions, but there is a growing recognition that we can do more to realize the carbon capture and storage potential of our land. Accounting for cost constraints, the PNAS paper calculated that natural climate solutions could reduce emissions by 11.3 billion tonnes per year by 2030equivalent to halting the burning of oil or the combined emissions from the US and European Union. One-third of this cost- effective natural climate solutions mitigation can be attained at or below $10 a tonne of carbon, cheaper than emerging technologies such as bioenergy and carbon capture. Without cost constraints, natural climate solutions could deliver emissions reductions of 23.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year, close to a third (30%) more than previous estimates. The graph below shows how natural climate solutions can contribute 37% of the necessary emissions reduction on a cost- effective basis. New research points to the magnitude and immediacy of natural climate solutions Fossil fuel mitigation 2C pathway Avoided emissions Sequestration Global carbon emissions (Pg CO2 yr-1) Source: Bronson et al., PNAS (2017) Business-as-usual emissions Historic emissions For natural climate solutions to fully meet their climate change potential, we need to rethink the way we manage the land and our demand for products from the land, including food and wood. 0 -10 80 40 30 20 10 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 50 60 70 12 Rethinking land use The biggest natural climate solution: more trees The PNAS paper found that trees have the greatest potential to cost-effectively reduce carbon emissions. According to the FAO, 3.9 billion hectares or 30.6% of total land area is forest. Avoided conversion of forests represents a quarter of the economic carbon reduction potential of natural climate solutions. The three largest options for increasing the number and size of trees (reforestation, avoided forest loss, and better forestry prac
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