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,Review and Prospect of Chinas Energy and Petrochemical Industry,Report series of China energy and petrochemical industryMarch 25th 2019,The release of 2019 Annual Report of China Energy and Petrochemical Industry,2,Refinery、C2、C3C4、PX、C6,6Industrial Chains,3 Parts,Crude oil, natural gas, refined oil, ethylene, propylene, ethylene glycol, butadiene rubber, acrylic ,Over 40 Products,F Economy ForecastF Market AnalysisF Insights on Hot Events,3 Modules,F EnergyF Refinery IndustryF Chemical Industry,Main content of the 2019 report,3,Review 2018,Prospect 2019,How many?How much?Demand & Supply & Price,How to change?Pattern of Supply and Demand &Trend of Price,How to impact?Impacts of Hot Events,International Market,China Market,CONTENTS,1,The Development of China Energy and Petrochemical Industry over the Past 40 Years,2,The New Pattern of Long-term Development of Energy and Petrochemical Industry in China,3,Market Prediction for 2019,The Development of China Energy and Petrochemical Industry in the Past 40 Years,1. Has been the vital component of Chinas and even the world economy,6,An important role in global energy and petrochemical system,1978-2017年,The main business income of the industry is 2.0 trillion US dollars increased by182 times.The number of large and medium-sized enterprises is 10 times more, and large ones is more than 30000.,A vital position in the development of national economy11.6%,of national industrial assets,Crude Oil Import19%Imported crude oil,Primary Energy Consumption23 %3,248 Mtoe,Processing Capacity of Crude Oil15%16.8 Million barrels per day,Natural Gas Import8%Imported natural gas,462 Million tons123 Billion cubic metres,Ethylene Production Capacity14%25 MTA,2017) 2018),Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017, National Bureau of Statistics of China, EDRI,7,Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017, EDRI,Industry development accelerated after joining WTO in 2001,1981,1990,1993,1996,1999,2002,2005,20082011,2014,2017,0.00,100.00,1978150.00,93,826,+ 8 TimesRefining CapacityMillion tons per year,192,104,23.2,0.51,+ 45 TimesEthylene Production CapacityMillion tons per year,149.2,+ 1 TimeProduction of Crude OilMillion tons+ 10 TimesProduction of Natural GasBillion cubic metres,50. 0013.8,1993Net importer of crude oil,1978,Opening of offshore Oil and Gas,2000,10 million-ton-a-year,refinery plants,2005Joint Venture Project of Refining and Chemical,Industry Integration,2006megaton ethylene plants,1985Opening of onshore Oil and Gas,198419871986Introduction of four 300 thousand-tons ethyleneprojects,1994Increasing joint venture projects,2000,West-to-East Gas,Transmission Project,2009,Beginning of the exploration & development of shale gas,Industry development strongly fueled by the reform and opening-up in 1978. Previous period: self-sufficiency, profitable export. Dramatic increase of energy demand after 1990. Refining capacity gradually exceeded crude oil production,. More joint venture and cooperation in refining and petrochemical business,. The 10-year period of oil price rising started. Active investment, consumption and trade,2. Has Achieved “Leapfrog Development”,Go Abroad Stage(1992-1998),Preliminary Exploration Stage (1978-1991),Overview of overseas business of Chinese oil companies,2017,u Overseas investment enterprises : 34u Overseas Oil and Gas Projects : 210,3. Opening and cooperation helps be in line with the global industry system,8,Started to “going global”,Focused on “bringing in”兑,Mutual Integration Stage(1999-2012)Combined “bringing in” and “going global”Upgrading Stage(2013Now)Upgrading international energy cooperation system,4. A number of petroleum and petrochemical international enterprises have emerged,9,Refining Technology Overall advanced, some leading,Oil & Gas exploration and development theory as well as technology highlights characteristics,Complete technology series of modern coal chemical industry,Petrochemical Technology Reaches or approaches the worlds advanced levelComplete technology series of megaton ethylene project,Complete technology series of highly efficient and environmentally friendly aromatic hydrocarbons,(Sinopec technology series of highly efficient and environmentally friendly aromatic hydrocarbons),5. The level of some energy and petrochemical technologies has entered advanced ranks in the world,Cooperation WithExternal Partners,Independent Innovation,10,( offshore drilling),(Exploration of Shale Gas at Fuling),Technology with independent intellectual property,Capacity to design and build ten-million-tons oil refinery,Complete technology series of clean petroleum products production,Conventional UnconventionalMarine Facies Continental Facies Onshore Offshore(Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Company Ltd. ),The New Pattern of long-term Development of Energy and Petrochemical Industry in China,High-quality Development,ClothingFood,HousingTransportation,FutureMeet the Requirement of High-quality DevelopmentIn the future, petroleum and petrochemical industry emphasized on satisfying,quality and efficiency requirement,More Sustainable,More Intelligent,Cleaner,Higher-end,New Development,New Drivers,12,PastMeet the Demand of Basic Necessities of LifeIn the past 40 years, petroleum and petrochemical industry emphasized on satisfyingquantity and speed requirement,15.4,23.3,44.3,96.9,1.41,1.41,1.36,1.44,2029,Population(Billion),(current trillion dollar),thousand dollar),1.40,China will be able to maintain GDP growth rate at 6-6.5% by 2025. Also, the population will continue to grow and is expected to reach peak at 1.44 billion in 2029.Chinas Per Capita GDP will increase significantly. Compared to 2018, it will double in,2025, triple in 2035, and seven times in 2050. 1.42,1.Steadily growing economy in China will constantly provide a sustained impetus for industrial growth,5%,5.8%,5.0%,4.0%,1009080706050403020100,The 1st New Driver: New urbanization and the rural vitalization strategy will inspire the potential of Chinas economic and industrial development,60% in 2018,US,China World,70% in 2030,831 Million Urban Population,1,018 Million Urban Population,The rural vitalization strategy will break the urban-rural dual structure and drive economic growth strongly.By the free flow of factors , the integration of urban and rural industries could be promoted, level of urbanization could be raised, the synergy of urban development and rural revitalization could be achieved.,1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050T)e (ap between C)ina s urbanization rate an% t)at o %evelope% countries )as narrowe% rapi%ly (%)Source:UN, National Bureau of Statistics of China, EDRI,14,80% in 2050,The 2nd New Driver: The rising middle class has become a strong driver of consumption growth and industrial upgrading,Urban residents consumption is upgrading along the path from necessary consumption to improved consumption to high-end consumption.,Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China,30.1,8.4,23.3,12.5,10.8,6.1,2.7,28.6,7.2,6.16.2,22.8,13.6,11.6,7.3,2.7,3.5,1.1,6.9,8.8,4.7,7.9,9.0,9.6,% of Consumpt ion Expenditure in 2013,% of Consumpt ion Expenditure in 2017,G rowth Rate in 2017,Consumption Upgrade,Nece-ary on-umption,Improved on-umption,High-end on-umption,Consumption Expenditure Structure of Urban Residents (%),Three Hundred and Fifty Million in 2030,Middle ClassOne Hundred Million in 2015,15,Northeast China-Eastern Inner Mongolia Economic Zone,Belt and Road,Yangtze River Economic Belt,GDP(%): Midwest + Northeast,201735%205040%,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Economic&Xiongan New AreaGDP(%):East + South,201751%205046%,Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,Boosted GDP by more than $7.5 trillion,17,The 4th New Driver: Technological revolution will foster new growth and promote the upgrading of traditional petroleum and petrochemical industries,Emerging Industry Developing and Growing,New Business Model,New Energy, New MaterialsClean Energy, Advanced Polymer Materials, High Performance Materials, etc,New Energy VehicleElectric Vehicles, Fuel Cell Vehicle, etc,Traditional Industry Transforming and Upgrading,Traditional ManufacturingPromoting the In-depth Integration of the Internet, Big Data, Artificial Intelligence with the Real EconomyEnergy IndustryBuilding a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system,Chemical IndustryProduct Upgrading, Resource Conservation and Clean Production,“Internet Plus, Block chain , Sharing Economy, Modern Supply Chain, etc.A New Generation of Information and Technology IndustryBig Data, Cloud Computing, High-end Software, etc,Bringing In,Opening-up of Manufacturing,Open to developed countries,Opening-up of coastal areas,Multilateral opening-up (WTO),Going Global,Opening-up of Services,Open to developing countries,Opening-up of inland areas,Regional opening- up (free trade zone),LOREM,18,The 5th New Driver: More comprehensive opening-up in China will create a more favorable industrial investment environment,lChina will substantially ease market access, strengthen intellectual property rights protection, and take the initiative to expand imports.China will never close but open its door even wider.,Environmental protection costs have accelerated the industry reshuffle, further enhanced the industry concentration.Outdated production capacity will be largely eliminated to make room for the development of advanced clean production capacity and green production.Environmental costs of companies will be increased significantly.The development space of urban enterprises will be limited.19,Environmental Protection Policy,The 6th New Driver: The requirement of green development will lead traditional industries to explore new development paths,Air,Water,Soil,Long-term Mechanism,TAX,Environmental Protection Tax,Pollutant Discharge Permits,0,5,10,15,20,25,20002010201620202025203020352040,Energy Consumption Per Unit GDP(kBtu/$),Chinas energy intensity descends most quickly,Will reach the peak of carbon emissions before the world does,2000-2017,2026-2035,6.5%,2%,2035-2050,0.7%,5%,0.1%,4%,8%,2017-2025,Chinas energy consumption has been decoupled from GDP growth10%,21.6 22.2,24,28.5,31.5,36.7 36.9 36.8,36.3 35.5,2.33,3.4,6.1,8.1,9.3 9.59.99.89.58.9,8.1,7.2,1990,2000,2050,China wi00 4each 5he 3eak bef24e 0302010202020302040,The w240d wi00 4each 5he 3eak du4ing 035 52 040,arbon dioxide emissions,Billion Tonnes33.8 34.5 36,2.Chinas energy transition will move faster than the world, and energy efficiency will be greatly improved,20,GDP growth rateEnergy consumption growth rate,Total World 世界,ChinaEuropeUS中国欧I美国,3.The market for petroleum and petrochemicals remains huge, especially in natural gas, chemicals and new materials,80706050403020100,8007006005004003002001000,1983,1985,1987,1989,1991,1993,1995,1997,1999,2001,2003,2005,2007,2009,2011,2013,2015,2017,2019,2021,2023,2025,2027,2029,2031,2033,2035,2037,2039,2041,2043,2045,App arent consumption of crude oil Consumption of natural gas,App arent consumption of refined oilEquivalent consumption of ethylene(right axis),Peak Time2027Peak Value370 million tons,Crude OilPeak Time around 2030 Peak Value720 million tonsNatural GasPeak Time : before 2050 Demand in 2050:about 700 BcmRefined Oil,1983-2017,Crude,Oil,Gas,Refined,Oil,Ethylene,PX,7 times,12.2237Bcm 20 timesNatural,32320 million tons 10 times1.143 million,tons 40 times,0.1224million tons 200 times,GDP,0.312.7 trillion dollars 42 times86610million tons,EthylenePeak Time2035-2040年 Peak Value72 million tonsPXPeak Time2040-2045Peak Value 41 million tons21,4.Chinas market will be more competitive, with the gradual formation of a pluralistic supply system,22,Private LNG terminals operatingSupply of Oil and GasRefining and PetrochemicalForeign and private-owned refining projects perform actively,International chemical giants have entered ChinaFine ChemicalsSale TerminalsForeign and private-owned companieshave invested in gas station,Market Prediction for 2019,24,2019 Annual Report of China Energy and Petrochemical Industry Focuses on 6 Questions,What Are the Roads Ahead for World and China Economy?,How Do We Evaluate Forces that Influence the Sustainable Development of Energy?,How Will the New Expansion of Refinery and Petrochemical Capacity Influence the Market?,Will Gas Supply be very tight in 2019?,Will Business Cycle of Refining and Petrochemical Industry Continue in 2019?,How Will the Market Demand Be in 2019 ?,1,2,3,4,5,6,25,Higher Risks2018:3.2%2019:3.1%,Stability First2018:6.6%2019:6.0-6.5%,Trade friction Unilateral sanctions,1.What Are the Roads Ahead of World anId. SChhrininaksinEgcoTnraodmey?,The manufacturing PMI has by 3.8% since the beginni,II. Contracting R Economy,Employment,Finance,Foreign Trade,Foreign Investment,Investment,Exp,Stable,able,Stable,Stable,Stable,2.Whether the Energy Industry Can Achieve Sustainable Development?,26,Reform: The process of marketization,has been accelerated,non-fossil energy continues to fall,Non-fossil,Coal,20182019Offshore wind power generation has been developed rapidly,Cost of PV power generation,6 yuan/W,4.14yuan/W,4元/瓦,4yuan/W,Consumption: The goal of optimizing energy structure,The unification of residential and non- residential gas prices has began,2018.6,Crude oil futures trading launched,2018.3,Subsidies for PV reduced,2018.5,Liberalization of petroleum retail market,2018.6,Electricity spot market operating,2018.8,Establishment of China Pipelines Corp.?,2019,Production: A clean, efficient and diversified energy supply system is formingCoalCapacity clearance has been basically completed,Oil & GasUpstream investment continues to recoverNew EnergySubsidized developmentconnotative development,International,CooperationTechnology Development: The cost of,
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