资源描述
PREMIUM PRODUCTS, SMALL BRANDS AND NEW RETAIL China Shopper Report 2019, Vol. 1This work is based on secondary market research, analysis of financial information available or provided to Bain mass products now sell briskly, too. This suggests an opportunity for companies to develop a portfolio of brands appealing to a range of skin care and makeup consumer segments. Of course, each category is different. In infant formula, for example, the evidence shows that consumers distinctly favor premium and super-premium brands, eschewing mass brands. Premium Products, Small Brands and New Retail 2 Channel changes: Growth limits for e-commerce? In 2018, Kantar Worldpanel adjusted its online channel database to reflect new market realities and the rapid pace of e-commerce growth. In this refreshed channel view, e-commerce represents 16.7% of the urban FMCG market for at-home consumption, vs. 10% under the previous methodology. E-commerce channel growth slowed slightly to 30.6% between 2017 and 2018 (compared with 35.1% annual growth between 2014 and 2018). Similar to previous years, increasing penetration and pur- chase frequency remain the key growth drivers, with volume per order and ASP remaining stable. Yet for the first time, we are seeing the growth limits of online penetration. 5For example, in Tier-1 cit- ies, online penetration has plateaued at around 80% and purchase frequency at 20 times per year. Low- er-tier cities have more growth headroom and can expect at least three or four years of continued pene- tration growth, in our view. Since 2012, we have identified three clusters of categories based on their relative online penetration 6and online penetration growth trajectory. This year we have highlighted four clusters to reflect a more pronounced separation across categories. The first is categories with high relative online penetration and high online penetration growth. These 4 baby and beauty categories comprise about 70% of overall online spending on the 26 FMCG categories we studied. Shoppers in these categories care about high-quality brands (im- ported goods are often perceived as higher quality) and discovering new brands, making online a fitting fulfillment and discovery channel. The second cluster of categories centers on personal care, including personal wash, hair care and oral care. These categories have midlevel relative online penetration, with high rates of online penetration growth since 2016. In large part, the significant increase in penetration is the result of promotions by e-tailer platforms, as well as heavy online investments by small and leading brands alike. The third cluster includes mostly food and home care categories, spanning instant noodles, candy, chocolate and kitchen cleanser. These categories have achieved midlevel relative online penetra- tion but experience low online penetration growth. The last cluster is the same as in previous reports: categories with low relative online penetration and limited online penetration growth. Within this cluster, we find impulse categories like chewing gum and most of the beverage categories, which come with a high fulfillment cost for online purchases. As we have seen in previous years, online channels typically have higher average selling prices com- pared with the category average. In fact, brands in some categories rely on online channels to boost premiumization. Yet these ASP gains are sometimes offset by promotions. While the rate of online promotions has stabilized at around 40% (compared with a steady 22% for offline channels), it still is relatively high. Premium Products, Small Brands and New Retail 3 There is encouraging news for offline channels. While 2018 doesnt necessarily represent a turning point, we did begin to detect renewed hope for offline retailers. Previously, offline stores in most for- mats had been steadily losing share with the rapid rise of online channels. Now there are new and in- teresting opportunities for offline retailers to regain their momentum, in many cases with smaller and more flexible formats. Hypermarkets continue to lose market share at a regular pace, dropping from 23.6% in 2014 to 20.2% in 2018. However, smaller formats are watching their losses decelerate, and in some cases are even gaining ground. For example, super- and minimarket channels lost share but enjoyed growth of 1.9% in 2018. Also, within traditional trade (grocery), food and beverage sales intended for out-of-home consump- tion have risen by 14% annually since 2016, accounting for nearly 80% of grocery spending in 2018, based on 10 of the categories we tracked. 7Out-of-home consumption made similar contributions to convenience store sales, which have experienced 16% annual growth in Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities since 2016. Even large store formats show potential for growth, but it will require them to take on new roles. In recent years, hypermarkets have started to reignite some of their momentum by serving as a logistics base for 30-minute delivery of goods ordered online via the leading delivery platforms. Another op- portunity: Big chains can reinvent themselves by upping their game in fresh food. In addition to examining these ongoing trends, we looked at two other developments: the dramatic impact of fast-growing small brands on larger brands, and the emergence of the uniquely Chinese phenomenon of New Retailfuturistic supermarkets devoted in equal measure to in-store dining, online ordering and delivery.Premium Products, Small Brands and New Retail 4 Big competition from small brands In China Shopper Report 2018, Vol. 2, Local Insurgents Shake Up Chinas “Two-Speed” Market, we showed how Chinas insurgent brands are taking a disproportionate share of FMCG growth. As that trend continues, we now address a fundamental question facing many companies: Can big brands get bigger and continue to be successful? The proliferation of insurgent brands like Pechoin skin care, ChaoNeng fabric detergent and Classy Kiss yogurt, combined with the fragmentation of markets and segments caused by online channels, has forced established brand owners to decide whether to continue growing an existing big brand or to create a portfolio of brands that serve different consumer segments. The new reality is that many incumbent brands watch small brands doing an impressive job of serving raw consumer needs, re- sponding in everything from R billion-dollar brands are vastly different animals than $25 million brands and require significantly different management approaches. New Retail stores take hold The other big emerging trend we consider involves New Retail. As in past years, we looked deeply into online channels and the out-of-home market for food and beverages. In any of its forms, New Retail blurs the line between online and offline sales, with potentially major implications for how FMCG Premium Products, Small Brands and New Retail 5 products are sold. In this report, we focus exclusively on FMCG categories in New Retail stores, such as Alibabas Hema supermarkets. Now largely limited to Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities, and with penetration levels comparable to regional supermarkets, New Retail stores will become more broadly relevant in the futureand we will continue to track their development. How brands can win The three key implications for brands that we mentioned last year still hold true: Take advantage of channel dynamics, grow with the winning channels and anticipate retailers consolidation; Develop high-value and personalized products to make the most of the premiumization trend; and Become a data-driven, consumer-centric organization by collaborating with platforms but also by developing your own set of consumer data. This year we add a fourth important implication, based on the success of insurgent brands: Develop a portfolio of brands to grow overall share in a category, taking advantage of the fragmentation of consumer needs and shoppers thirst for innovations. How retailers can win The acceleration of New Retail presents opportunities for retailers to transition from todays mass-ori- ented, offline approach to tomorrows seamless, multichannel world of shopping. Physical stores have a future, but offline retailers need to refine their moves to play in this new environment. Specifi- cally, theyll need to: Redesign store portfolios in the New Retail format; Make the store experience more attractive by leveraging new technologies like augmented reality; and Digitalize operations to deliver a seamless experience to consumers, whether they buy online or offline, and start to monetize consumer data for better cooperation with brands. 1 These 26 categories are a) packaged food: biscuits, chocolate, instant noodles, candy, chewing gum and infant formula; b) beverages: milk, yogurt, juice, beer, ready-to-drink (RTD) tea, carbonated soft drinks (CSD) and packaged water; c) personal care: skin care, shampoo, personal wash, toothpaste, makeup, hair conditioner, diapers and toothbrushes; and d) home care: toilet tissue, fabric detergent, facial tissue, kitchen cleanser and fabric softener. 2 These 19 categories are soybean milk, mouthwash, oyster sauce, pet food, kitchen rolls, RTD coffee, hair colorant, quick soup, functional drinks, sesame sauce, hamburger, monoso- dium glutamate, soft cake, foreign spirits, leather care products, napkins, Chinese spirits, cooking oil and nutrient supplements. 3 These 22 categories are packaged water, Asian traditional drinks and RTD tea, juice, CSD, RTD coffee, milk tea, functional drinks, non-RTD (on-premise) drinks, biscuits, chocolate, chewing gum, candy, bubble gum, mints, throat drops, salty snacks, beer, yogurt, milk, soybean milk, packaged ice cream and nonpackaged (on-premise) ice cream. 4 Penetration is defined as the percentage of households in a market buying a particular FMCG category in a given year. 5 Online penetration is defined as the number of people who bought online at least once per year divided by the number of people who bought the category at least once. 6 Relative online penetration is defined as the total number of online purchasers divided by the number of purchasers of the category. 7 These 10 categories are beer, packaged water, RTD tea, juice, CSD, biscuits, chewing gum, chocolate, candy and yogurt.
展开阅读全文