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Mastercard Future of Outbound Travel in Asia Pacific (2016 to 2021) Report By Desmond Choong and Dr. Yuwa Hedrick Wong 1. Introduction According to the UNWTO1, Asia Pacific has been the fastest growing region in the world for international tourist arrivals over the past 10 years (2005-2014). This is due in part to Chinas huge outbound travel wave which has grown by double digits since 2004 with the country now a leading source of global tourism. This report presents an update of Asia Pacifics regional outlook of outbound travel between 2016 and 20212. 17 markets in Asia Pacific are covered in this report with China, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka representing Emerging Asia Pacific; and Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand representing Developed Asia Pacific. Combining household growth projections distributed by income brackets, and Mastercard survey data from 2011 to 2016 on the propensity for outbound travel within those income brackets, we have projected outbound travel for the seventeen markets until 20213. 2. Regional Overview Collectively, outbound travel in Asia Pacific is expected to grow by an annual rate of 6 percent over the forecast period of 2016-2021. China is projected to be the largest outbound travel market by 2021, (excluding trips to Hong Kong and Macau), followed by South Korea and India. At a projected 103.4 million trips in 2021, outbound China travel will be four to five times that of South Korea and India, and will constitute almost 40 percent of all Asia Pacific outbound travel by 2021. In our first report in 2014, Japan was the second largest outbound market in the Asia Pacific region and South Korea, the third largest. Although it was initially projected that South Korea would overtake Japan by 2019, this event occurred in 2015 with South Korea surpassing Japan by more than 3 million tourists in that year (ironically largely due to a spurt in South Korean tourists to Japan which experienced a sharp currency devaluation in 2015). Emerging Asia Pacific currently records about 1.5 times more outbound trips than Developed Asia Pacific and will grow more than twice as fast as Developed Asia Pacific (7.6 percent versus 3.3 percent) over the forecast period. Chart 1 summarizes the outbound trips of the 17 markets between 2011 and 2016 and the growth projections from 2016 to 2021. Chart 1: 2016-2021 Outbound Travel Forecast Outbound trips (mn) Exclusions 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2021 2016-2021 CAGR Real GDP Growth 2016-2021 Australia 8.8 9.1 9.5 10.0 11.8 3.5% 2.9% Bangladesh 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9% 6.8% China excludes trips to HK and Macau 38.8 48.1 61.6 68.7 103.4 8.5% 6.0% Hong Kong excludes travel to China and Macau 4.7 5.2 5.0 5.8 6.8 3.0% 2.8% India 11.6 12.4 13.5 14.5 21.5 8.2% 7.6% 1 World Tourism Barometer January 2016, UNWTO. 2 See The Future of Outbound Travel in Asia Pacific published in 2014 Q1 by Mastercard 3 See Appendix for research methodology. Indonesia excludes trips to Singapore by Sea and Same-day trips to Malaysia 6.9 6.7 6.6 7.0 10.6 8.6% 5.7% Japan 17.5 16.9 16.2 16.8 19.4 2.9% 0.5% Malaysia excludes cross border land travel to Singapore 10.8 10.5 11.1 11.9 14.2 3.5% 4.9% Myanmar 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.7 10.6% 7.7% New Zealand 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.4% 2.4% Philippines 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.4 4.3 4.4% 6.4% Singapore excludes cross border land travel to Malaysia 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.8 11.7 3.5% 2.6% South Korea 14.8 16.1 19.3 21.3 25.6 3.8% 3.0% Sri Lanka 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.0 6.1% 5.0% Taiwan 11.1 11.8 13.2 14.1 16.3 2.9% 2.6% Thailand 6.0 6.4 6.9 7.2 9.1 4.8% 3.1% Vietnam 4.2 4.1 4.6 4.8 7.5 9.5% 6.2% Total - 17 markets 152.1 165.7 186.5 202.7 271.4 6.0% 4.5% Asia Pacific Developed Markets 67.7 70.3 74.7 80.4 94.6 3.3% 2.4% Asia Pacific Emerging Markets 84.4 95.4 111.8 122.3 176.8 7.6% 5.9% Chart 2 maps the positions of the markets in the two-dimensional space combining real GDP growth rates (the vertical axis) and their outbound travel growth rates (the horizontal axis). Myanmar is the fastest growing outbound market at 10.6 percent over the forecast period, followed by Vietnam (9.5 percent) Indonesia (8.6 percent), China (8.5 percent) and India (8.2 percent). The fastest growing developed markets are South Korea at 3.8 percent, followed closely by Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand, all of which are projected to grow by about 3.5 percent over the forecast period. Chart 2 also shows that outbound travel is forecast to grow faster than real GDP except in the case of Bangladesh, Philippines and Malaysia. Chart 2 also suggests that the outbound travel growth tends to be higher than real GDP growth (as indicated by points further below the diagonal line) for the developing markets of Myanmar, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and China compared to the developed markets (excluding Japan) which tend to have outbound growth much closer to the forecasted real GDP growth (as indicated by points hugging or close to the diagonal line). Chart 2: Outbound Travel growth versus Real GDP growth In addition to projecting overall growth rates of outbound travel, it is beneficial to compare this against the number of households. Chart 3 summarizes the changing ratios of outbound trips-to-households in recent years. Apart from Japan, all the developed markets have a ratio of 100 percent or higher in 2021. While a ratio of 100 percent means that on average at least one person per household goes abroad annually, in practice it is more likely that a certain portion of households make multiple trips a year, implying that there are households that do not go abroad at all. The ratios for Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan exceed 100 percent, suggesting high propensities to travel internationally in the respective households. Among the emerging markets, Malaysia stands out with a ratio of well over 150 percent from 2013 to 2016. This may explain why it is in the grey portion of Chart 2 (indicating outbound travel growth is less than real GDP growth over the forecast period), suggesting that Malaysia has undergone a prior “catch-up” phase and is currently operating at a higher propensity to travel compared to other emerging markets. Among the emerging markets, Indias ratio of about 5 percent of outbound leisure trips to total households between 2013 and 2016 is low, even with a forecasted improvement to 7.3 percent by 2021. Other low ratio markets include Myanmar (between 6 to 9 percent), Indonesia (about 10 percent) and Bangladesh (around 6 to 7 percent). Interestingly, excluding Bangladesh, these markets are also among the highest in growth rates in terms of outbound travel trips over the forecast period, suggesting an impending emerging market “catch-up” effect since low-ratio markets also have the greatest potential for the number of outbound trips to grow. For example, if India recorded the same outbound trip-to-household ratio as China in 2016 (15.6 percent), then Indian outbound leisure travel would have recorded 43.5 million trips in 2016 instead of the 14.5 million. This indicates enormous potential for growth in outbound travel from India, Indonesia, and Myanmar over the next few decades as the ratio starts to approach that of the other developing markets, assuming an increasing propensity to travel is combined with a healthy increase in households. Chart 3: Number of Outbound Travel Trips as % of Total Number of Households Outbound trips as % of total households Exclusions 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2021f Australia 98.5% 101.1% 103.2% 107.0% 119.2% Bangladesh 4.5% 6.2% 6.4% 6.8% 7.4% China excludes trips to HK and Macau 8.9% 11.0% 14.0% 15.6% 23.0% Hong Kong excludes travel to China and Macau 182.6% 201.1% 192.3% 222.3% 248.9% India 4.3% 4.6% 4.9% 5.2% 7.3% Indonesia excludes trips to Singapore by Sea and Same-day trips to Malaysia 10.8% 10.5% 10.1% 10.7% 15.4% Japan 35.4% 34.3% 33.0% 34.2% 39.9% Malaysia excludes cross border land travel to Singapore 168.3% 161.8% 168.0% 178.4% 198.7% Myanmar 6.4% 7.4% 8.3% 9.2% 14.6% New Zealand 128.0% 131.6% 138.5% 147.4% 166.5% Philippines 14.6% 14.9% 16.1% 17.0% 19.6% Singapore excludes cross border land travel to Malaysia 576.0% 582.1% 586.3% 621.5% 693.6% South Korea 78.4% 84.6% 101.1% 110.9% 131.1% Sri Lanka 25.8% 26.7% 27.8% 29.4% 38.8% Taiwan 154.0% 165.9% 184.4% 197.6% 232.0% Thailand 33.6% 36.1% 38.5% 40.1% 50.2% Vietnam 20.8% 20.6% 22.4% 23.2% 34.7% Total - 17 markets 15.7% 17.0% 18.9% 20.4% 26.5% Asia Pacific Developed Markets 75.1% 77.9% 82.5% 88.7% 103.7% Asia Pacific Emerging Markets 9.6% 10.8% 12.5% 13.6% 18.9% Japan is an anomaly among the developed markets with an outbound-trip-to-household ratio of only 34.2 percent in 2016. Japans ratio has not exceeded 40 percent since 1970, 6 years after the deregulation of outbound travel in Japan. By comparison, South Koreas ratio in 2016 is estimated to be more than triple of Japan at 110.9 percent. Some reasons given by the Japan Tourism Marketing Co. for lackluster Japanese outbound travel are structural changes in Japanese society owing to a declining population, a stagnant economy, natural disasters in Japan, and a series of negative external events since 2001 which has sapped motivation for outbound travel. Japanese consumer confidence levels since the 1990s seem to concur with this view as shown in Chart 4: Japanese consumer confidence has been persistently recorded below the Asia Pacific developed market average except for the period between 2005 and 2007, and more recently in the first half of 2013, and the last three bi-annuals since the first half of 2015 (though it is in danger of going below the Asia Pacific developed market average again). Another supporting statistic of this trend is the declining number of Japanese passport holders since peaking in 20004. In comparison, less than 5 percent of the Chinese population holds a passport, suggesting that Chinese outbound 4 “The Chinese Tourism Boom”, 20 November 2015, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. travel has a lot of room to grow. Finally, it is worth noting that Japans domestic tourism product was ranked 9th in the world in 2015 by the World Economic Forum and competes with outbound international travel considering domestic tourism accounts for 90 percent to 95 percent of total Japanese travel. Chart 4: Mastercard Consumer Confidence Index Japan and Developed Asia Pacific Compared Chart 5 shows outbound trips distributed across 3 household income ranges by using a concentration ratio (the percentage of total outbound trips divided by the percentage of total households). For example, Australian households earning below US$50,000 per year account for 21.8 percent of all households in Australia but only 10.0percent of all Australian outbound trips giving a concentration ratio of 0.5 (i.e. 10.0percent divided by 21.8 percent)5. At the next income bracket of US$50,000 to US$100,000, 43.3 percent of all households contribute 38.3 percent of all outbound trips, giving a concentration ratio of 0.9. Finally at the income bracket of US$100,000 and above, 34.9 percent of all households contribute to 51.8 percent of all outbound trips giving a concentration ratio of 1.5. A perfect distribution of outbound trips by household income would imply all three household income ranges have a concetration ratio of 1. As expected, we generally see an increasing concentration ratio as income rises because wealthier households have more resources for leisure travel. Notably, some markets demonstrate extremely high concentrations ratios at the upper income ranges in the emerging Asia Pacific markets. For example, at the US$30,000 range India has an extremely high concentration ratio of 47.3, followed by 31.1 for Bangladesh and 30.3 for Myanmar, implying a significant proprtion of outbound travel is accounted for by a much smaller proportion of households (wealthier households). Comparatively, we see that the developed markets are more evenly spread in terms of outbound travel consumption, with most of them having concentrations below 3 (except for South Korea at 3.1) at the higher income range. Chart 5: Outbound trip concentration by household income brackets Concentration Ratio (% of total OB trips / % of total households by income range) GDP per capita US$ 2016 2016 Lower Income HHs Middle Income HHs Higher Income HHs Developed Asia Pacific 5 Chart 5 only shows the concentration ratios. The % of total households and % of Total outbound by household income ranges are not shown in Chart 5, but are covered in the individual markets sections below US$100k Australia 0.5 0.9 1.5 $49,145 Hong Kong 0.7 1.1 1.3 $43,828 Japan 0.5 1.2 2.3 $34,871 New Zealand 0.5 1.2 2.3 $36,254 Singapore 0.7 1.2 1.3 $52,755 South Korea 0.8 2.1 3.1 $25,990 Taiwan 0.9 1.4 1.9 $21,607 Emerging Asia Pacific US$30k Bangladesh 0.4 5.2 31.1 $1,401 China 0.1 1.8 7.4 $8,240 India 0.2 4.1 47.3 $1,747 Indonesia 0.1 2.0 21.1 $3,620 Malaysia 0.5 0.9 1.9 $9,811 Myanmar 0.4 3.5 30.3 $1,416 Philippines 0.4 1.2 7.4 $2,978 Sri Lanka 0.5 1.1 5.6 $3,991 Thailand 0.6 1.2 1.8 $5,940 Vietnam 0.2 1.0 2.9 $2,174 As illustrated in Chart 6, the higher income households of developed markets record outbound travel concentration ratios within the range of 1.3 (Hong Kong in 2016 it is only about one-third of Chinas ratio (15.6 percent) and half of Indonesias (10.7 percent). 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2021f 2016-2021 CAGR Outbound trips (mn) 11.6 12.4 13.5 14.5 21.5 8.2% Households (mn) 269.5 272.8 276.0 279.3 295.1 1.1% Total outbound trips as % of total households 4.3% 4.6% 4.9% 5.2% 7.3% About 44.9 percent of outbound trips are accounted for by Indian households earning above US$30,000 per annum in 2016, an income range that accounts for less than 1 percent of all households. This puts the concentration ratio at 47.3 (highest among higher income households of the 17 markets). The lower-income households earning less than US$10,000 have a concentration ratio of 0.2 while the middle-income household range of US$10,000 to US$30,000 have a ratio of 4.1. This presents a skewed distribution of outbound travel by households (i.e. very much concentrated at the higher income levels) as outbound travel is clearly dominated by
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