长城汽车调研分析报告2019版.pdf

SUV 行业品牌企业 长城汽车 调研 分析报告 SUV . 8 . 9 . 10 . 12 SUV . 14 SUV . 14 - SUV . 16 WEY- SUV . 20 . 23 - . 23 . 25 . 26 . 27 . 27 , . 29 . 31 . 32 . 33 . 33 . 34 . 35 1 . 8 2 . 9 3 2013 - 2018 . 9 4 2013 - 2018 . 10 5 2013 - 2018 . 10 6 2013 - 2018 / . 10 7 . 10 8 . 11 9 . 11 10 2013-2018 % . 11 11 . 13 12 . 13 13 2013 - 2018 . 13 14 2013 - 2018 . 13 15 2013 - 2018 . 13 16 . 14 17 . 14 18 . 14 19 SUV SUV . 15 20 . 15 21 / . 15 22 . 17 23 2012-2019 SUV . 17 24 2019.1-4 . 17 25 . 19 26 SUV . 19 27 H6 . 19 28 2018 SUV . 20 29 H6 SUV . 20 30 WEY . 21 31 WEY % . 21 32 WEY C . 22 33 WEY . 22 34 . 23 35 . 23 36 . 23 37 . 25 38 . 25 39 F-150 . 26 40 - . 26 41 IQ . 27 42 R1 . 27 43 Pi4 . 28 44 Pi4 . 28 45 . 29 46 i-Pilot . 29 47 . 30 48 MINI Electric Concept . 30 49 H2 MOBILITY . 30 50 H2M . 30 1 % . 6 2 . 6 3 . 7 4 . 7 5 . 8 6 . 9 7 . 12 8 . 12 9 SUV . 16 10 . 16 11 SUV . 16 12 SUV . 18 13 H6 SUV . 19 14 H6 . 20 15 WEY SUV . 21 16 WEY . 22 17 2018 . 24 18 2018 . 24 19 . 25 20 . 26 21 WEY P8 . 27 22 . 28 23 -Pilot . 29 24 . 30 25 . 31 26 . 32 27 . 32 28 / . 33 Page 6 9.6-11.3 F WEY 2019-2021 9%/8%/7% 40%-50% 1 % 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 29.70% 2.59% -1.92% 9.00% 7.58% 6.54% 5.00% 4.00% / 75.40% 81.02% 82.11% 81.95% 81.69% 81.03% 81.05% 81.05% / 4.55% 4.82% 1.50% 3.30% 3.40% 3.45% 3.45% 3.45% / 3.22% 4.36% 4.61% 4.35% 4.40% 4.43% 4.43% 4.43% / 3.89% 3.86% 3.66% 3.67% 3.67% 3.67% 3.67% 3.67% 15.45% 19.09% 18.98% 19.00% 19.00% 19.00% 19.00% 19.00% 16.47% 66.87% 39.22% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00% 50.00% 50.00% : 2 Beta 0.99 3.30% 7.00% 8.56 9127 (E) 78127 (D) 15158 Kd 5.00% T 19.00% Ka 10.23000% Beta 1.15 Ke 11.32% E/(D+E) 83.75% D/(D+E) 16.25% WACC 10.14% : FCFE 9.6-11.3 WACC 3 Page 7 3 WACC 10.3% 10.8% 11.32% 11.8% 12.3% 3.5% 13.01 12.12 11.34 10.66 10.06 3.0% 12.49 11.68 10.97 10.35 9.79 2.5% 12.03 11.30 10.64 10.07 9.55 2.0% 11.63 10.96 10.35 9.82 9.33 1.5% 11.28 10.65 10.09 9.59 9.13 1.0% 10.96 10.38 9.85 9.38 8.95 0.5% 10.68 10.13 9.64 9.19 8.79 9.2-10.4 SUV 19 20 PE 33.42 12.22 12.63 13.80 19 15-17 PE 9.15-10.37 4 ROE % P/B 18 19E 20E 18 19E 20E 7.01 1.45 0.14 0.20 0.88 50.07 35.24 7.97 0.73 9.63 11.02 14.94 1.07 1.13 1.29 10.30 9.74 8.56 1.48 7.46 5.29 -5.88 -0.42 0.06 0.21 -12.60 93.96 25.17 0.78 6.79 19.42 0.80 0.11 0.98 1.66 176.55 19.92 11.73 1.61 12.03 26.05 15.67 3.08 3.16 3.39 8.45 8.23 7.68 1.30 20.06 5.40 33.42 12.22